The optimal policy rule under rational expectations and multiplier uncertainty

This paper shows the role of macro policy under multiplier uncertainty when expectations are rational and the supply structure is affected by price level variance. Policy less is a function of price level variance and possibly of the expected price level. If the letter argument is omitted from the less function, optimal policy simply minimizes the horizontal variance of the aggregate demand curve. If it is not omitted, the level of policy depends on the responsiveness of the supply structure to price level variance, and there may be multiple local policy optima.     

Speculation,rational expectations,and stability of the foreign exchange market

This paper uses Muth's model of rational expectations to analyze foreign exchange speculation under floating exchange rates when a trade balance ‘J-curve effect’ exists. It extends the existing literature by basing speculative behavior explicity on maximizing behavior, by relating expectations to the underlying structure of the model, i.e. by assuming rational expectations, and by explicitly incorporating uncertainty. A surprising result is that, if speculation takes place, decreases in risk aversion increase the variance of the exchange rate.     

Contractionary effects of devaluation

A simple model is developed to illustrate a number of contractionary effects of currency devaluation, some of which have been noted previously. In a Keynesian model, it is shown that depreciation can lead to a reduction in national output if (i) imports initially exceed exports: (ii) there are differences in consumption propensities from profits and wages; (iii) government revenues are increased by devaluation, e.g. when there are significant export taxes. Similar effects are also shown to exist in monetarist models, via reductions in both real balances and the nominal money supply. A numerical example illustrates the results for an economy ‘typical’ of semi-industrialized countries.     

Relative price volatility under Sudden Stops: The relevance of balance sheet effects

Sudden Stops are associated with increased volatility in relative prices. We introduce a model based on information acquisition to rationalize this increased volatility. An empirical analysis of the conditional variance of the wholesale price to consumer price ratio using panel ARCH techniques confirms the relevance of Sudden Stops and potential balance sheet effects as key determinants of relative price volatility, where balance sheet effects are captured by the interaction of a proxy for potential changes in the real exchange rate (linked to the degree of external leverage of the absorption of tradable goods) and a measure of domestic liability dollarization.     

Exchange rate overshooting,the trade balance,and rational expectations

This paper presents a model of exchange-rate determination characterized by imperfect asset substitutability between domestic and foreign bonds, sticky goods-market prices, and rational expectations. The model is used to analyze the response of the exchange rate to a step change in relative money supplies. The assumption of imperfect asset substitutability permits introduction into the analysis of trade flows which respond to relative price changes. These flows create non-monotonic exchange-rate adjustments to long-run equilibrium. These non-monotonic adjustments are consistent with rationality, and may lead to short-run undershooting or overshooting.     

On the efficiency of monetary policy rules with flexible prices and rational expectations

The classic Sargent–Wallace–Lucas (SWL) rational expectations-flexible price model is usually interpreted as implying “policy ineffectiveness”: systematic monetary rules cannot affect the distribution of real output. A contrary but not widely-appreciated result of Dotsey and King suggests that there exist “prospective feedback” rules (future money depending systematically on current but as yet unobserved information) which improve output distribution by means of improving agents’ ability to perceive relative prices.We show the Dotsey–King proposition in fact to be a colossal understatement: prospective feedback rules applied vigorously enough (and even “contemporaneous feedback” rules based on current interest rates, provided at least one prospective feedback is active) can in the limit drive price-perception errors to zero. This is not to say such a policy would be desirable. Feedback parameter combinations that reduce current price level misperception tend to produce high forecast error variances with respect to future prices, with attendant loss in capital market efficiency. Whatever the desirable frontier among these different social cost-producing variables, feedback parameters will in general be needed in order to get on the frontier as well as to move along it. Monetary policy clearly produces social gain even in a version of this model which contains no elements of price “friction,” inefficient use of available information, or asymmetry in information as between the government and the public.     

The liquidity effects of foreign exchange intervention

This paper examines the effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention in a two-country, two-currency, general equilibrium model that allows for liquidity effects. Both sterilized and non-sterilized intervention operations have significant impacts on the allocation of liquidity in international financial markets. Whether intervention is successful in moving the exchange rate in the desirable direction depends upon the degree of sterilization of intervention and the intratemporal elasticity of substitution of the consumption goods. The model shows that there exist circumstances in which the response of exchange rate to intervention is ‘perverse’ as documented in the empirical literature.     

Bilateral trade effects of fiscal devaluation: Evidence from OECD countries

This paper empirically examines the effects of a fiscal devaluation on bilateral trade. To this end, employers’ social contribution (ESC) and value-added tax (VAT), which stand as the factors that represent typical fiscal devaluation, are embodied within the framework of a gravity model. Fixed effects vector decomposition (FEVD) technique is applied to the empirical models specified within this framework, employing panel data from 22 OECD countries over the 1980–2014 periods. The findings show that the effectiveness of the fiscal devaluation policy seems to alter with respect to how ESC and VAT are measured. Considering the fiscal devaluation policy implemented unilaterally, the policy turns out to be effective in nine countries in the sample.     

The labor market effects of foreign owned firms

Foreign firms have a more educated workforce and pay higher wages than domestic firms even after controlling for worker quality, at a given moment in time. This does not imply that foreign ownership improves the labor market outcomes of the workers since foreign investment may be guided by unobservable firm and worker characteristics correlated with schooling or wages. This paper asks whether foreign investors acquire firms with high human capital or wages, or whether foreign acquisition improves these outcomes. Using a matched employer-employee data set, I find that foreign acquisitions of domestic firms have small effects on the human capital and on average wages of the acquired firms. Instead, foreign investors “cherry pick” those domestic firms that are already very similar to the group of existing foreign firms.     

论中国招商引资过程中政府决策的合理性

Based on consumer and manufacturer behaviors, this research describes local governments’ unique role in the process of “attracting foreign direct investment (FDI)”. Drawing from a sample of 28 provinces plus four cities throughout China from 1998 to 2004, we construct an econometric model in this paper to analyze the common factors that influenced the result of “attracting FDI”. The main finding of this paper is that in the process of “attracting FDI”, local governments play a decisive role, which puts consumer surplus, producer surplus and the other social welfare into a basket to construct its plan for “attracting FDI”. The common factors which influence the result of “attracting FDI” are local costs, the number of foreign-invested company, the market share of local companies, and the market share of foreign-invested companies. Translate from Caimao Jingji 财贸经济 (Finance & Trade Economics), 2005, (12): 70–75     

Anchoring effects of advertised reference price and sale price: The moderating role of saving presentation format

This study investigates how consumers utilize an advertised reference price and the posted sale price (SP) as anchors to adjust their internal reference prices (IRP). As expected, the effect of SP on IRP depends on the magnitude and direction of deviation from the IRP. When the posted SP exceeds IRP, it exerts an upward pressure on IRP, whereas when it falls below IRP, it has a negative impact. Consistent with prior research, consumers rely at least partially on the advertised reference price to adjust their IRP. The saving presentation format also moderates the effects of gains and losses on IRP but does not influence offer evaluation directly. Results suggest that retailers can enhance evaluations directly by pricing their products appropriately relative to consumers' IRP and indirectly through the choice of saving presentation format.     

The effects of corporate social responsibility and price on consumer responses

This experiment examined the influence of corporate social responsibility and price on consumer responses. Scenarios were created to manipulate corporate social responsibility and price across two domains (environment and philanthropy). Results from a national sample of adults indicate that corporate social responsibility in both domains had a positive impact on evaluation of the company and purchase intent. Furthermore, in the environmental domain corporate social responsibility affected purchase intent more strongly than price did.     

股价崩盘风险国内外研究综述

股价崩盘风险作为一种极端的市场现象,已经引起实务界和学术界的关注。本文首先梳理了股价崩盘风险的形成机理和衡量方式,分析了国内外关于股价崩盘风险的影响因素及经济后果的文献,并将影响因素分为三个大类:公司内部相关者、公司外部相关者以及宗教、制度、市场、政治因素。尽管目前已有很多文献研究了股价崩盘风险的影响因素,但是关于企业集团的研究以及股价崩盘风险经济后果的研究还相对较少。     

Real-time price discovery in global stock, bond and foreign exchange markets

Using a unique high-frequency futures dataset, we characterize the response of U.S., German and British stock, bond and foreign exchange markets to real-time U.S. macroeconomic news. We find that news produces conditional mean jumps; hence high-frequency stock, bond and exchange rate dynamics are linked to fundamentals. Equity markets, moreover, react differently to news depending on the stage of the business cycle, which explains the low correlation between stock and bond returns when averaged over the cycle. Hence our results qualify earlier work suggesting that bond markets react most strongly to macroeconomic news; in particular, when conditioning on the state of the economy, the equity and foreign exchange markets appear equally responsive. Finally, we also document important contemporaneous links across all markets and countries, even after controlling for the effects of macroeconomic news.     

The effects of 3rd party consensus information on service expectations and online trust

The marketing literature has recently explored a number of ways in which trust can be communicated by Internet retailers, including 3rd party consensus ratings. This paper explores the impact of consensus sequences over time and across high and low ranges, rather than the mere valence of ratings as presented in past research. Second, effects are compared across products with variant levels of risk. Two experiments investigate service quality inferences, expected satisfaction, and trust beliefs for online retailers as outcomes of 3rd party consensus information (i.e., agreement among a firm's past customers). Results indicate that online trust beliefs vary positively with consensus ratings and trust is higher when ratings trends increase rather than decrease. Service quality inferences and expected satisfaction are shown to mediate these relationships. More interestingly, results of study two suggest sequence direction becomes insignificant when ratings do not approach certain range limits (e.g., high, moderate, low cut-offs). Comparisons across products varying in risk show that consensus ratings are more important when consumers evaluate high risk products. Implications for both researchers and practitioners are offered.     

The market value for product attribute improvements under price personalization

Personalization of the marketing mix is a topic of much interest to marketing academics and practitioners. Using discrete choice demand theory, we investigate the aggregate market value for product attribute improvements when firms are engaged in personalized pricing. Our results provide a theoretically grounded rule for how to aggregate consumer valuations to assess the overall profitability of attribute improvements under price personalization. Under common pricing, each consumer contributes the same margin. Profitability of an attribute improvement is thus driven by inducing more consumers to buy. Consumers with high choice probabilities are given less weight in the market valuation under common pricing as they are less responsive to attribute improvements. Under personalized pricing, profitability of an attribute improvement is driven by extraction of consumer surplus from high valuation consumers. Consumers with higher valuations, and consequently higher choice probabilities, are given more weight in the market valuation under personalized pricing. Since individual consumers play a more central role in the market valuation under personalized pricing, estimation of consumer-level valuations is of increased importance. Under common pricing, the market valuation for an attribute improvement is robust to extreme estimates of the consumer-level valuations. Through our theoretical and empirical analyses, we demonstrate that this robustness does not hold under personalized pricing.     

The effects of a minimum wage on foreign factor rewards

A two-sector model is used to examine the effects on the foreign real wage of a binding minimum real wage introduced into an economy with monopoly power in trade. It is shown that the foreign real wage may fall in response to the introduction of a domestic wage floor.