中国奶业发展的产业主体分析

首先从奶类的自然属性、政府和加工企业以及合作社对奶业发展的作用等几个方面着手对奶业进行了分析，指出当前促进我国奶业发展的决定性力量是加工企业；然后，通过对我国各乳品加工企业的行业份额和奶类安全性要求较高等特点的分析，得出乳品加工大中企业是奶业发展的中坚力量；最后，通过对乳品加工小企业与大企业的对比和分析，得出乳品加工小企业是大企业提高竞争力和低成本扩张的基础。     

基于因子分析的我国乳品上市公司竞争力评价研究

本文构建了乳品公司竞争力评价指标体系，运用因子分析法对5家主营乳业和2家兼营乳业的上市公司竞争力进行了实证研究，从而揭示出当前我国乳品上市公司的竞争力情况以及所存在的问题，这对于提升乳品企业竞争力和加快乳品行业的持续、快速发展具有重要的现实意义。     

我国乳品产业市场行为分析

文章从广告行为、降价行为和合并行为三个方面,对我国乳品产业市场行为进行了分析,通过分析得出以下结论:我国乳品企业中,规模经济企业广告投放的市场集中度较高;近期乳品产业内部,降价成为企业扩大市场占有率,排挤竞争对手的惯用手段;国内各乳业巨头以其雄厚的资金实力开展兼并、重组大战,并有愈演愈烈之势。在分析了我国乳品产业市场行为的基础上得出几点结论,并提出了几点建议。     

关于我国乳品工业布局合理化问题

乳品工业是鲜奶利用和贮存的一种加工工业。乳品由于营养丰富、易于消化,深受群众欢迎。发展乳品工业,对改变我国人民的食物结构有重要意义。乳品工业是建国后才形成的一个新兴的食品工业部门,尤其十一届三中全会以来,发展迅速,布局面貌变化很大。可以预期,随着我国人民消费水平的提高和对乳品需求的增长,乳品工业今后还会有更大的发展。在这种情况下,分析和探讨我国乳品工业布局合理化问题,对于充分合理开发乳品工业资源,改善乳品工业布局状况,提高布局效果具有一定的实际意义。一、我国乳品工业布局的现状特点我国乳类的加工利用已有悠久历史,其传统方法和制品至今仍在内蒙、西藏、新疆     

进口对我国乳品产业安全影响的分析

本文构建了评估我国乳品产业安全状况的指标体系的基本框架,从产业竞争力、产业控制力和产业成长性这三个方面,就乳品进口对我国乳品产业安全的影响进行了评估。结果表明:我国乳品生产不具有竞争力,乳业进口依存度较高,产业控制力较弱,乳业的成长空间较大。在此基础上,本文提出了提高乳品竞争力、有效利用关税措施调节进口、采取非关税措施保护我国乳品产业、不再给外资企业超国民待遇和扩大乳品内需等政策建议。     

“入世”对乳品加工业的影响及对策

１９９９年１１月１５日 ,中美就中国加入世贸组织达成协议 ,中国加入ＷＴＯ指日可待。入世后我国将根据世界贸易组织的相关条款 ,享受权利并承担相应的义务 ,同时 ,入关也将对我国的各行各业带来冲击。我公司是从事奶制品加工的企业 ,必须对入关后对奶制品行业的影响有充分准备。近年来 ,我国奶类生产与消费虽然有了很大发展 ,但奶类的生产与消费水平仍然很低。１９９８年我国奶类产量为１１０６万吨 ,人均奶类产量为８．９公斤。欧美发达国家奶类消费水平很高 ,人均年消费奶类１００～１５０公斤左右 ,美国达到１５２公斤 ,而我国的人均奶…     

乳品行业中小企业的生存之路

作为最具发展潜力的产业之一，近几年来乳业一直以惊人的速度在发展。特别是1998年以来，整个乳业市场的平均增长率保持在30％以上，液态奶的增长速度更是高达60％，而在乳品产业中担任“领头羊”的伊利、蒙牛、光明等几个乳品大企业在近年的产值增长率更是高达40％。在我国的乳品市场上，寡头趋势正在逐渐形成。那么，在中国乳品产业的发展过程中，是否还存在着中小企业的发展空间，中小企业究竟有多大的生存空间，如何占领这些空间。要对这些问题做出明确的回答，需要对当前我国乳品产业现状做出理性的判断，由此来分析中小企业的发展空间及其竞争策略。     

点评中国奶业迷局

一、我国奶业发展态势1.乳品需求快速增长,奶业已成为新的经济增长点。改革开放是我国奶业迅速发展的第一次机遇。从1978年到1998年的20年间,我国奶类总产量增长了7.7倍,年均递增10.7%。随着人民收入水平的提高和饮食习惯向营养化方向的转变,尤其是我国加入世界贸易组织后,我国奶业迎来了第二次发展机遇,也进入了一个更高速发展的时期。据2002年的《工业统计年报》显示,1998年到2002年中国奶制品的产量几乎增长了一倍。而根据国家统计局统计快报,2002年奶制品产量比上年增长25.6%,其中液体奶产量更是达到了65.8%的惊人增长速度。中国奶业市…     

基于产业链视角的乳品加工企业与奶农关系研究

乳业是农业、工业、第三产业相互连接、相互影响的特殊产业,产业链不同阶段的参与主体之间呈现＂纵向关系＂。本文阐述了我国乳品产业诞生近百年来,城市郊区型、农区型以及牧区型乳品产业模式下,乳品产业链的行为主体从分散、小规模走向规范化和产业化,乳品产业链纵向组织关系也经历了从无到有,从完全垂直一体化到多元化的过程,并从经济学的角度对产业链不同成员间关系展开分析,指出目前乳品产业链的联结方式存在不完备性。     

中国乳品加工企业广告行为分析

广告宣传是企业市场竞争的主要策略之一。通过广告宣传可以起到树立企业品牌的作用。然而大量的广告投入必然要挤占创新投入，从而影响企业竞争力的进一步提升。近几年乳品行业的广告战和广告竞赛就有损害中国乳品行业整体竞争力提升的倾向。本文对这一现象进行了分析，以期促使乳品加工企业的广告行为回归理性和正常，从这一侧面来推动中国乳品产业的健康发展。     

Can China’s meat imports be sustainable? A case study of mad cow disease

Rising demand and constrained domestic production have challenged the meat consumption in China. To fill the gap between domestic demand and supply, China imports an increasing volume of meat products from the international market. However, outbreaks of animal diseases can jeopardize China’s ability to meet its need for consumable meat. This article investigates the impact of animal disease outbreaks on the sustainability of China’s meat imports by using the episode of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in the United States in 2003 as a case study. Our results show that China’s meat imports are becoming more diversified and sustainable. The outbreak did have significant negative impacts on beef imports from the United States. During the epidemic, not only was China able to increase beef imports from other major exporters, but it also increased imports of other animal products such as edible offal and pork. Our findings indicate that international trade can serve as a reliable source to meet China’s soaring meat consumption.     

基于行业生命周期的中国居民乳品消费研究

对乳品消费量而言,中国城镇居民乳品消费趋于饱和,但与发达国家相比存在着较大差距。农村居民的乳品消费刚刚起步,市场潜力巨大。就乳品消费品种而言,中国乳品行业正处于由液态奶向发酵奶过渡的发展阶段,干酪制品将成为中国未来乳品消费的主要品种。因此,进一步扩大中国居民乳品消费,应加强宣传引导,扩大农村市场,调整产品结构,开发新产品等。     

绿色农产品消费供求关系分析及其促进

绿色农产品是绿色消费的有机组成部分。由于绿色农产品生产消费的正外部效应以及消费过程中的信息不对称现象的存在,影响了绿色农产品的替代渗透力与消费需求,无法充分发挥出绿色农产品应有的生态效益、社会效益和经济效益。本文从理论和市场供需角度探寻绿色农产品消费供求关系及其影响因素,提出了促进绿色农产品消费的对策措施。     

An economic evaluation of market development programmes for US dairy products

‘This study measured the effectiveness of US dairy export promotion programmes on increasing foreign demand and enhancing producers’ revenues. An import demand equation based on panel data was used to test whether export promotion has a positive and significant impact on US dairy exports. The effects of various promotion scenarios on the dairy market were then simulated, and benefit–cost ratios (BCRs) for these programmes were estimated. There were three key findings. First, the combined effort of public and private dairy export promotion expenditures had a positive and statistically significant impact on demand for US dairy products in the world market. The findings indicated that export promotion stimulated total dairy exports by 4.14 billion pounds, on average, per year, which represented 55.8% of total exports. Second, US dairy export promotion has been highly profitable for the nation’s dairy farmers. The calculated BCRs, based on assumed elasticity of supply, ranged from a low of 8.54 for the most elastic assumption to a high of 30.12. Third, from an optimality standpoint, dairy farmers are underinvesting in export promotion. The marginal BCRs ranged from a low of 3.79 to a high of 15.22, which means that, at the margin, increasing export promotion expenditures would be profitable for dairy farmers.     

大豆需求与全球资源的优化配置

供求决定价格,价格又反过来影响供求平衡.一方面,中国对大豆的进口需求是导致国际价格不断上涨的主要原因;另一方面,中国水产品出口价格的下降又刺激了美、日、韩等国对我国大虾消费的需求.大豆豆粕是大虾饲料的主要成分,欧美水产品的消费间接拉动了我国大豆的进口.除此,由于大豆属土地密集型农产品,利润率较低,在耕地资源短缺的条件下,我国应该生产那些劳动力密集、单位产量较高的农作物或收益较好的经济作物,进口土地密集型农作物.因此.进口大豆,出口大虾,符合全球资源的优化配置原则.     

Between a cap and a higher price: Modelling the price of dairy quotas under price ceiling legislation

This paper considers various policy alternatives to price ceiling legislation in the market for production quotas in the dairy farming sector in Quebec. I develop a model of farmers’ demand for quotas and estimate a structural parameter that is required for the counterfactual experiments. Using my econometric results and the modelled equilibrium price, I estimate the price of dairy quotas over the period 1993–2011. The counterfactual experiments indicate that the price of quotas could be reduced to the ceiling price through a 4.16% expansion of the aggregate supply of quotas, or through moderate trade liberalization of Canadian dairy products.     

我国电煤应急储备的必要性和可行性研究

我国是能源消耗大国,其中的电能主要来自火力发电,而电煤资源消耗是煤炭消耗的主要部分。由于突发性自然灾害、季节性需求变动以及价格波动等因素的影响,我国电煤供应在局部地区和局部时段会出现短缺现象,带来重大的经济损失,严重影响了我国能源应用安全。论述了电煤应急储备的内涵和相关理论,利用灰色预测模型对我国电煤需求作出了预测,同时,利用基尼系数法分析了我国煤炭分布不均衡的现象,在深入分析电煤供需现状的基础上,提出了我国建立电煤应急储备的必要性和可行性。     

ADVERTISING RESTRICTIONS AND CIGARETTE SMOKING: EVIDENCE FROM MYOPIC AND RATIONAL ADDICTION MODELS

Because of the high social cost of cigarette smoking, many countries impose advertising restrictions to reduce cigarette consumption. Yet previous studies conclude that advertising constraints have been ineffective at reducing cigarette smoking. This conclusion is incorrect because it ignores the fact that advertising restrictions have supply as well as demand effects. The authors extend existing research by showing that advertising regulations, especially those found in the recent National Tobacco Settlement, have decreased the equilibrium level of cigarette consumption in the United States, a result that holds for both myopic and rational addiction models. (JEL L50, L66, M37 )     

经济发展与能源产业政策协调研究

我国经济的发展和能源的高耗低效增长方式加剧了能源供需矛盾,能源的供需紧张关系成为制约我国经济发展的瓶颈。笔者首先对我国能源产业的发展状况进行了回顾,然后对能源产业所面临的突出问题进行深入分析,针对能源产业结构现状,提出了增加国内能源供应,加强能源的国际合作,适时调整能源国际贸易政策与重视国际石油期货市场作用等政策性建议。     

Dynamic specification of demand functions: A cointegration approach

The single-equation approach has been commonly used in the studies of energy demand. However, as most of the data used in the energy demand model are unlikely to be stationary, this factor has to be taken into account when estimating the demand behavior. To overcome this problem, the authors have applied the cointegration and error-correction models to model Chinese coal consumption data. In order to contrast their performance with such traditional models as Hendry's general-to-specific approach, a forecast error comparison exercise has been conducted. In terms ofex post forecast errors, the Engle-Granger error correction model outperforms other chosen models. By using the Engle-Granger approach, it is possible to obtain important information about the behavior of coal demand in China.