我国电力短缺根源研究

我国电力短缺主要源于供给基础不够坚实,需求仅是诱因、表象,是供给不足和供给不能适应需求变化调整所导致的结果,其根源是电力市场行政性垄断和由此造成的扭曲而僵化的电价体制。因此,根治电力短缺应打破行政垄断,建立科学合理的电力投资体制和电价形成机制,长期要着眼于建立坚实供给基础、提高供给弹性战略,短期可实施挖潜现有供给能力等措施。     

石家庄电力消费弹性系数特征分析

通过统计分析和实证分析研究了石家庄电力消费弹性系数变化机制，分析了经济结构调整、居民收入水平提高、电价变化等对石家庄电力需求的影响，结合石家庄实际情况，对未来10年电力弹性系数进行预测；并建议加快电力建设，促进经济发展。     

中国电力行业减排政策——基于电力需求函数的实证分析

利用2003—2015年中国的省际面板数据,通过估计电力需求函数模拟碳税的政策效果,为电力行业减排政策的制定提供了参考。结果表明:随着中国经济进入新常态,电价对电力需求的影响减弱,产业结构特别是工业内部结构的调整对电力需求和电力消费结构产生一定影响;由于电力需求对电价变动不敏感,因此碳税的减排效果有限;为实现减排目标,政府需要征收高额碳税,但这在现有的电价水平下较难实施;从减排效果和实施难度两个方面来看,当前暂不开征碳税的减排政策具有一定合理性;与碳税相比,加快供给侧结构性改革、降低火力发电比重,能够更有效地实现减排目标;现阶段政府应将调整电源结构作为节能减排工作的重点。     

基于双碳视角下限电对不同用户群影响现状及其长期发展探究

<正>在世界能源结构调整的背景下,中国也在加快能源结构转型的步伐,一步步完成设定的双碳目标。为此中国进行限电,推进节能减排。本文选取限电典型城市江苏省江阴市,通过分析限电对高耗能高耗电工业企业及社区居民的效果与影响,探究江阴市限电长期发展的可行性规划,促进能源结构向低碳转型,从而实现高质量发展。近年来,我国电力市场向绿色转型明显,但依然存在电力供求极度不平衡、减排方式不合理、新能源发电无法满足需求及电力系统灵活性存在明显短板等问题。     

中国区域电力消费需求决定因素的实证研究

实证研究区域电力消费需求的决定因素,对我国各个地区能源(电力)供求与经济协调发展意义重大。以2004年中国省域电力消费量截面数据为电力需求的度量指标,采用截面回归分析模型和多种检验指标,分析并估计检验了经济、人口、电价及第二产业比重对区域电力需求的作用机制。结果显示:区域经济、人口、第二产业比重各增长1%,区域电力需求将分别增长0.38%、0.27%、1.91%,当电力消费价格增长1%时,区域电力需求将降低4.46%。结论表明:电力消费与区域经济及人口增长之间存在密切的内生联系,通过经济增长方式的转变和人口规模的控制对电力消费产生影响是可能的;第二产业比重和电价是影响中国区域电力消费的主要因素。     

对西部地区居民用电实施阶梯式电价体系的思考

电力资源作为人们息息相关的生活必需品之一,其各方面的品质将直接影响人们的生活品质的好坏,电价作为衡量电力资源的价值,作为电力市场发展的支撑点,对节约用电、合理用电和优化电力配置等方面都有比较重要的意义,为了更加合理的提高电力资源的利用效率,对居民的生活用电采用阶梯电价的方案,能够进一步的减少传统单一制电价方案中的交叉补贴,利用一项科学合理的经济调控手段引导居民去合理用电和节约用电。但随着人们生活品质的提高,用电需求量的急剧增加、电力设备日趋老化等原因,使得该方案在具体的实施过程中对供电企业提出了更高的要求,为了更好的为人们提供优质的电力服务,本文着重讲解了在新疆地区居民用电阶梯式电价体系实施,对供电企业生产经营的影响和面临的问题。     

编者的话

石油涨价、煤炭紧张、电力短缺!能源、能源、还是能源!中国的发展令世人瞩目,而能源问题则始终是经济快速发展中不能回避的问题。一方面人们关心的是发展中能源资源的供给是否能够保障;另一方面人们也关心消耗能源对环境所带来的影响。中国经济发展的规模是史无前例的,而中国能源结构的特点也使人们清醒的认识到,环境问题已经成为制约社会经济进一步发展的“瓶颈”。2003年以来国内出现了严重的电力短缺,许多地方大面积的拉闸限电。于是各地掀起了新一轮建设燃煤火力发电厂的热潮,可是我们应该知道目前火电导致的污染已经占到了全国污染总量…     

政府规制目标与销售电价结构扭曲

根据经典的拉姆齐定价法则,工商业电价应低于居民电价,然而中国电力市场却呈现相反的电价结构,居民电价远远低于工商业电价.为什么拉姆齐法则不适用于中国电力市场,这种电价结构扭曲是否存在地区差异？现有研究尚未给出回答.本文从政府的多重规制目标入手,在传统的拉姆齐模型基础上引入政府加权目标函数,试图解释中国电力市场的逆拉姆齐法则现象.通过理论分析和实证检验,本文发现近年来居民电价和平均销售电价的价格差不断扩大且存在着明显的地区差异;人均GDP对价格差有正向影响,工业用电比重、国有企业产值比重和财政赤字率与价格差呈负相关.基于此,本文提出了相应的政策建议.     

电力建设必须同经济发展相协调

当今,电气化水平的提高使我国电能在终端能源消费的比重大大提高,工业用电占全社会用电量的74％,由此决定了电力与经济发展的紧密相关性及电力经济在宏观经济研究中的重要地位。显然,电力需求与经济增长成正比。电力供应满足经济增长的需求是电力发展的主要目标。任何电力建设的大起大落都将导致电力供需的不平衡。同时,任何电力的短缺与过剩都将影响经济的健康发展。因此,电力发展与建设怎样同经济增长相协调,需要认真研究。     

市场化改革后的我国电网建设的困境与出路

我国电力行业经过最近3年的改革,发生了许多变化,同时出现了很多问题,如电力短缺、电价上涨、发电项目的盲目建设等。本文从电网建设视角分析指出,厂网分开后,输配电未分开,电力改革的不彻底,导致我国的电网建设滞后,而电网建设滞后阻碍电力市场化改革的深化,并成了目前电力行业中这些问题出现的重要原因。文章在最后对如何在不同时期加快电网建设提出了一些建议。     

电力与经济增长关系计量分析——以新疆为例

运用Granger因果关系和误差修正模型,分析新疆电力与GDP以及三次产业之间的长期均衡关系.结果表明,新疆电力与经济的Granger因果关系是从GDP到装机容量和用电量的单向因果关系.从长期均衡看,GDP每增加1％,用电量增长1.1136％,装机容量增长0.9525％,经济增长对电力有效利用的促进作用显著.第一、二、三产业都是从产业增加值到用电量的单向因果关系.从长期均衡来看,第一、二、三次产业增加值每增加1％,用电量分别增长1.4215％、1.0887％和0.9533％.基于电力与经济的关系,新疆应做好电力规划,避免电力工业的产能过剩,优化产业结构,降低能耗,促进经济可持续发展.     

Reassessing the productivity gains from trade liberalization

This paper reassesses the impact of trade liberalization on productivity. We build a new, unique database of effective tariff rates at the country‐industry level for a broad range of countries over the past two decades. We then explore both the direct effect of liberalization in the sector considered, as well as its indirect impact in downstream industries via input linkages. Our findings point to a dominant role of the indirect input market channel in fostering productivity gains. A 1 percentage point decline in input tariffs is estimated to increase total factor productivity by about 2 percent in the sector considered. For advanced economies, the implied potential productivity gains from fully eliminating remaining tariffs are estimated at around 1 percent, on average, which do not factor in the presumably larger gains from removing existing non‐tariff barriers. Finally, we find suggestive evidence of complementarities between trade and FDI liberalization in boosting productivity. This calls for a broad liberalization agenda that cuts across different areas.     

基于BARY曲线的基本电价测算模型研究

本文针对目前两部制电价中基本电费按容量计费导致基本电价水平偏低、不能合理配置电力资源的问题,以长期边际成本理论为基础,结合描述电力系统负荷特性同时率与负荷率关系的BARY经验曲线,构建了容量成本在基本电费和电度电费中的分摊模型,并用某市电力局提供的有关数据,依据该模型测算了按电压等级和负荷特性划分的分类用户的基本电价。结果表明,该模型是确定基本电价的一种可行工具。     

Cleaning up the air for the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games: Empirical study on China's thermal power sector

This study examines the impact of the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games (BOG08) on pollution control strategies in the thermal power sector. We focus on two pollution control strategies: the installation of pollution control equipment and improvement in energy efficiency. By using a difference-in-differences methodology, we investigate if there is a significant difference in the installation of pollution control equipment between provinces under the regional control policy for the BOG08 and other provinces. Furthermore, by using matching methods, we explore the differences in the energy efficiency between power plants in provinces targeted by the policy and those in other provinces. The results suggest that there are no statistically significant effects of the BOG08 on pollution control equipment. On the other hand, energy efficiency measured by the coal consumption per unit of electricity generation by thermal power plants improved in 2007 and 2008 in provinces designated as areas requiring coordinated air pollution control for the Olympic Games. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that faster and cheaper responses played a larger role in pollution reduction in BOG08.     

A larger country sets a lower optimal tariff

We develop a new optimal tariff theory that is consistent with the fact that a larger country sets a lower tariff. In our dynamic Dornbusch–Fischer–Samuelson Ricardian model, the long‐run welfare effects of a rise in a country’s tariff consist of the direct revenue, indirect revenue, and growth effects. Based on this welfare decomposition, we obtain two main results. First, the optimal tariff of a country is positive. Second, the optimal tariff of a country is likely to be decreasing in its absolute advantage parameter, implying that a larger (i.e., more technologically advanced) country sets a lower optimal tariff.     

Past and present outage costs – A follow-up study of households’ willingness to pay to avoid power outages

Households’ demand for electricity continues to increase. This trend per se should indicate increased disutility from power outages. Additionally, batteries and other back-up systems have been improved, and the frequency and duration of outages have been reduced in many countries. By comparing the results from two stated preference studies on Swedish households’ willingness to pay (WTP) to avoid power outages in 2004 and 2017, we investigate whether the WTP has changed. The WTP is assessed for power outages of 1- and 4 -h durations, and whether it is planned or unplanned. We find three main differences: (i) the proportion of households stating zero WTP to avoid power outages decreased significantly from 2004 to 2017, meaning that more households are willing to pay to avoid a power outage in 2017 than in 2004; (ii) the overall WTP was considerably higher in 2017 than in 2004, but (iii) the conditional WTP, that is, WTP for those that have a positive WTP for an outage, has decreased. These results have implications for how regulators incentivize and regulate electricity suppliers, because the results suggest that a reliable supply of electricity is of greater importance now than what the literature has suggested.     

The Marginal Cost of Base-Load Power: An Application to Alcoa's Portland Smelter

The aim of this paper is to develop and exposit the methodology underlying the computation of the long-run marginal costs of 'base-load' electricity supply by a publicly owned utility. The particular application is to the costing of power to be supplied by the State Electricity Commission of Victoria (SECV) to Alcoa's aluminum smelter at Portland in Victoria. The results suggest a sizeable subsidy element in the tariff which is sensitive to the selection of the real discount rate appropriate for the public provision of electricity.     

中间品进口关税减让对出口高质量发展的影响：来自中国工业行业的证据

本文在当前中国推动经济高质量发展和积极主动扩大进口双重战略目标叠加的背景下,从行业层面入手研究中间品进口关税减让对出口高质量发展的影响.首先测度2001—2017年中国31个工业行业的中间品进口关税率和出口质量水平,然后据此构造面板数据进行实证分析,发现中间品进口关税减让能显著地促进出口质量升级,这一结论经空间相关和内生性检验后依旧稳健;但分样本回归结果显示该效应在低进口密集度行业中不明显,出口质量升级的外部动力是外资.中国应当依托海南自贸港建设加快推进中间品进口贸易自由化,重视进口中断风险,全力扶持企业自主研发创新,吸引高质量外资,最终助力出口实现高质量发展.     

Trade shocks,industrial growth,and electrification in early 20th-century China

How does demand from the industrial sector promote the diffusion of electricity? Using newly digitized data on Chinese power plants from 1912 to 1935, we examine the impact of a trade shock, which protected the domestic manufacturing sector from import competition, on the adoption of electricity. To establish a causal relationship, we exploit time variations in imported manufactured goods caused by China's unexpected recovery of tariff autonomy in 1929 and cross-sectional variations in local access to treaty ports. We find that the reduction in manufactured imports resulted from the tariff shock led to the expansion of the local electricity sector. Further analysis suggests that the booming domestic industrial sector rather than population agglomeration was the key channel for the effect.     

The Effects of Trade Liberalization On Cost-Reducing Horizontal Mergers*

This paper analyzes the effects of tariff reductions on horizontal mergers in a Cournot oligopoly in a two-country world. It is shown that for mergers between two domestic firms and for cross-border mergers which supply both markets from a foreign plant, unilateral tariff reduction encourages mergers which concentrate market power at the expense of mergers which reduce cost, while bilateral tariff reductions have the opposite effect, encouraging mergers which significantly reduce cost. Cross-border mergers which continue to supply each market from a local plant are discouraged by both unilateral and bilateral tariff reduction.