美国退出QE对中美两国金融市场的影响及中国的对策——基于FAVAR模型的分析北大核心CSSCISSCI

美国退出QE会对其自身的金融市场产生直接影响,通过国际传导机制势必也会对中国金融市场产生动态影响。根据FAVAR模型的模拟分析可知,美国退出QE之后,股市和房地产市场在短期内会受到抑制,但债券收益率的大幅上涨和美元的升值都将提高其对国际短期资本的吸引力。对于中国而言,股票市场在短期内将受到较大的负面冲击,但长期负面影响将趋于消失;房地产市场会在初期受到抑制,但不会大幅下跌;人民币汇率会上升且外汇储备会出现小幅减少,但人民币中长期贬值空间有限且双边波动加剧;货币市场和债券市场受到的冲击则不显著。因此,在短期内中国应该密切关注QE退出的影响,灵活地进行货币政策调节并加强流动性管理,在长期内中国则应该深化财税制度改革尤其是房地产税改革,加快推进汇率制度改革及外汇市场监管并在更大范围内开展货币政策的国际沟通与协调。     

美国退出QE对中美两国金融市场的影响及中国的对策——基于FAVAR模型的分析

美国退出QE会对其自身的金融市场产生直接影响,通过国际传导机制势必也会对中国金融市场产生动态影响。根据FAVAR模型的模拟分析可知,美国退出QE之后,股市和房地产市场在短期内会受到抑制,但债券收益率的大幅上涨和美元的升值都将提高其对国际短期资本的吸引力。对于中国而言,股票市场在短期内将受到较大的负面冲击,但长期负面影响将趋于消失;房地产市场会在初期受到抑制,但不会大幅下跌;人民币汇率会上升且外汇储备会出现小幅减少,但人民币中长期贬值空间有限且双边波动加剧;货币市场和债券市场受到的冲击则不显著。因此,在短期内中国应该密切关注QE退出的影响,灵活地进行货币政策调节并加强流动性管理,在长期内中国则应该深化财税制度改革尤其是房地产税改革,加快推进汇率制度改革及外汇市场监管并在更大范围内开展货币政策的国际沟通与协调。     

中国A、B、H股间市场一体化进程研究——基于SKEWED-T-GJR-COPULA方法的实证检验

本文通过构建动态Copula方法,以相依性作为股市间一体化整合指标,考察了1994年至2009年A、B、H股间的一体化进程,发现A股间的一体化基本达到完全整合,两B股间也达到了很高的水平,这两组市场的整合主要在1995年到1997年完成的。A股与B股间一体化程度也较高,其中亚洲金融危机和2001年2月B股改革推动了两市场的整合。而A、B股与H股间的一体化程度相对较低,它们间的整合开始较晚但仍在进行,其中股权分置改革和QDII的实施具有较大的推动作用。另外,中国金融市场如汇率、银行等的改革可能也提高了A、B股与H股的整合速度。     

短期跨境资本对金融资产价格的动态影响及对策研究北大核心

在全球"负利率"背景下,中国跨境资本流动的稳定性不断下降,跨境资本大规模、聚集性流入流出已成为常态,容易造成国内金融市场结构失衡,致使输入性风险跨市场传染。文章构建TVP-VAR模型,就2008年以来中国短期跨境资本对外汇市场、股票市场和债券市场资产价格的动态影响机制进行实证研究。研究表明,短期跨境资本对汇率、股价和债券收益率的动态影响有明显的时变特征,且受到监管新政及国际重大事件的显著影响。研究还发现,股票市场与债券市场在不同时期存在对短期跨境资本的"虹吸"和"互替"效应。最后文章提出审慎有序开放金融市场、完善跨境资本"宏观审慎+微观监管"两位一体管理框架、加强短期跨境资本的国际监管合作等政策建议。     

债券市场开放的价格效应与境外货币政策传导

债券市场阶段性双向开放是中国“双循环”战略格局下在资本市场层面的重要支点。本文基于债市制度型开放的重要分水岭——“债券通”开启事件，在开放市场环境下重新认识债券的风险定价及其对境外冲击的敏感性，借助中国银行间和交易所两市并行的特殊格局及政策不同步性设计双重差分模型，提取出市场开放的资产定价效应。研究发现，债市开放政策能够提振债券价格，意味着市场对于开放具有正向预期，这一效应在评级更高、期限更短、隐性担保预期更强的债券中更为明显。进一步研究发现，债券市场开放同时也放大了美国货币政策对中国的短期外溢效应。本文为监管层深入认识债市与国际金融体系对接的真实经济后果提供了新的视角。     

深化改革的着力点

“城市土地是否能继续出让,以什么方式出让?”“股票和债券发行规模应扩大还是缩小?”“住房制度改革下一步该怎么走?”等许多问题关系到方方面面的切身利益。笔者就如何解决这些问题,提出一些看法。 关于培育金融市场方面,应实现四个具体目标: 一是适当扩大股票和债券发行规模,进一步提高国民经济货币化程度。“九五”期间,根     

当前外汇市场的风险及其对策

长期以来,中国的企业、银行和居民对外汇市场的风险都不太敏感,这一方面是由于中国参与国际金融一体化的程度不高,另一方面是我们对金融衍生产品知之甚少,应对外汇市场风险的管理手段有限。然而,随着中国在国际经济和贸易中地位的上升,中国金融市场和国际金融市场的联系日益加深,国际金融市场的剧烈波动已经对中国的经济主体产生了巨大的影响。因此,关注外汇市场风险,进行必要的风险管理已成为当务之急。那么什么是市场风险呢?所谓市场风险实际上就是价格风险,即由于利率、汇率、股票价格和商品价格的不利变动而使经济主体发生损失的风险,因…     

深港金融一体化的条件与途径

香港是深圳的连体城市,拥有完整的并具有国际辐射能力的金融市场体系,CEPA的签署给深圳金融业发展提供了一次难得的发展契机,金融信息一体化是深港金融一体化的有力保证。从“龙头”(香港)到“龙身”(深圳),再到“腾飞”(一体化),这需要一个相当长的过程,其实这个过程也是深港金融一体化的过程。深港金融一体化的切入点在于建立共同的金融专业市场,其中主要包括外汇市场、货币市场和资本市场。但一个科学、合理的途径,需要树立共赢或多赢的理念。     

中国黄金市场与外汇市场间收益、波动溢出效应实证分析--基于VEC-DCC(BEKK)-BVEGARCH模型

用向量自回归动态二元EGARCH模型,对中国黄金市场与外汇市场间的收益与波动,在金融危机前后溢出效应进行分析。研究显示：美元兑人民币汇率和中国黄金不存在溢出效应,欧元兑人民币汇率对黄金存在负向溢出效应;较之金融危机以前,美元和欧元兑人民币汇率对黄金收益的波动溢出效应减弱,尤其是美元,危机前,黄金市场对来自美元和欧元外汇市场的信息冲击,存在显著＂杠杆效应＂;危机期间,市场间＂杠杆效应＂减弱。     

风暴来袭，中国或难独善其身

2007年春夏之交，一场初露端倪于美国市场的次级贷款风暴，让全球金融市场经历了近几年来从未遇到的困境。虽然众多经济学家坚信，这场风暴目前尚不会酿成危机，对中国国内金融市场造成的直接冲击影响有限，但由于全球金融市场一体化效应，市场恐慌情绪的蔓延无疑将考验加装资本管制等“防火墙”的中国金融。     

收益波动与随机冲击的非对称性影响：中国与美国股票市场的对比

通过讨论股票收益与随机;中击之间的关系,对中国股票市场和美国股票市场进行了对比研究。研究中使用了中国上海和深圳股票市场1990年12月31日至2005年12月30日的两市A股算术平均周指,以及美国股票市场1973年1月2日至2004年月12月30日的标准普尔500周指。在进行经验研究的过程中,分别使用了线性GARCH模型和GJR—GARCH模型计量股票收益的条件波动——即模型中的条件方差。研究发现,中国股票市场自1990年——1995年波动剧烈,之后波动趋于平缓,而美国股票市场在研究期间内收益波动一直处于一定范围内。同时还发现,美国股票市场的随机冲击对股票收益产生非对称性影响,即负冲击使股票收益产生的波动大于正冲击。而在中国股票市场却找不到相似的证据。鉴于对中国股票市场收益波动的研究结果,在剔除1996年以前的数据之后又进行了扩展研究,但是似然比率检验结果表明,正冲击对股票收益的影响还要略强于负冲击。     

Who Plays the Key Role among Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong Stock Markets？

In this paper we examine the daily frequency stock market indices of Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong from January 2000 to June 2012, and use the Morlet wavelet coherence model to determine who is playing the most important role in the financial markets of China. We find that there are significant comovements between these stock markets in the medium and long run. This provides investors with opportunities to increase their capital gains. The Hong Kong stock market plays a leading role in the long run, but its leader position is threatened by fast‐growing Chinese mainland stock markets, especially the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Based on our analysis, the following suggestions apply to the Chinese stock markets: establish and improve international and regional finance centers in Chinese mainland; encourage more qualified institutional investors; reposition the market relations among Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen; and increase deregulation and internationalization to speed up the integration of financial resources.     

Who Influences the Asian–Pacific Real Estate Markets: The US,Japan or China?

As rapid economic growth in China has led to significant appreciation of urban real estate market values, this study examines China's influence on Asian–Pacific real estate markets by focusing on their respective market integration with the US, Japan and China during the period January 2005 to December 2017. Market integration is examined by unconditional and time‐varying conditional correlations, nonlinear Granger causality and dynamic connectedness effects. Overall, although the US and Japanese real estate markets have significantly influenced return and volatility in the regional markets, China has emerged as another major regional real estate volatility leader with rising influence over volatility integration, especially during the 2007–2011 crisis period. Financial crises have strengthened China's volatility connectedness effects and market integration with other Asian–Pacific real estate markets. Our results imply that the benefits of regional portfolio diversification may be declining as volatility integration across the Chinese and Asian–Pacific real estate markets becomes stronger. Therefore, diversified global investors should pay greater attention to these real estate markets.     

Chinese and world equity markets: A review of the volatilities and correlations in the first fifteen years

After more than 15 years of Chinese equity markets, we study how variance, covariance, and correlations have developed in these markets relative to world markets, based on the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model of Engle [Engle, R., 2002. A dynamic conditional correlation: A simple class of multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 20(3), 339–350.]. Chinese markets offer A-shares to domestic investors and otherwise identical B-shares to foreign investors. We find that the volatility of A-shares has declined over the past decade. We find no asymmetric volatility relative to world markets in China. Contrary to the global trend of increasing cross-country correlations, we find stationary correlations for China. A-share indices have never been correlated with world markets, and B-share indices exhibit a low degree of correlation with Western markets (0–5%) and a slightly higher degree of correlation with other Asian markets (10–20%). We interpret these findings using Gordon's growth model.     

Examining Stock Volatility in the Segmented Chinese Stock Markets: A SWARCH Approach

Abstract

This study adopts the SWARCH model to examine the volatile behavior and volatility linkages among the four major segmented Chinese stock indices. We find strong evidence of a regime shift in the volatility of the four markets, and the SWARCH model appears to outperform standard generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) family models. The evidence suggests that, compared with the A-share markets, B-share markets stay in a high-volatility state longer and are more volatile and shift more frequently between high- and low-volatility states. In addition, the relative magnitude of the high-volatility compared with that of the low-volatility state in the B-share markets is much greater than the case in the two A-share markets. B-share markets are found to be more sensitive to international shocks, while A-share markets seem immune to international spillovers of volatility. Finally, analyses of the volatility spillover effect among the four stock markets indicate that the A-share markets play a dominant role in volatility in Chinese stock markets.     

Whither China? Reform and economic integration among Chinese regions

This paper investigates the changing nature of economic integration in China. Specifically, we consider business-cycle synchronization (correlation of demand and supply shocks) among Chinese provinces during the period 1955–2011. We find that the symmetry of supply shocks has declined after the liberalization initiated in 1978. In contrast, the correlation of demand shocks has increased during the same period. We then seek to explain these correlations by relating them to factors that proxy for interprovincial trade and vulnerability of regions to idiosyncratic shocks. Interprovincial trade and similarity in factor endowments tend to make shocks more symmetric. Surprisingly, foreign trade and inward FDI have little effect on the symmetry of shocks.     

Correlations in Returns and Volatilities in Pacific-Rim Stock Markets

Most studies on the correlations in stock returns and volatilities focus on the contemporaneous relationships and spillover effects in major stock markets such as the US and Japan. This paper adds to the literature by focusing on the dynamic relationship in the volatilities of the returns in the Pacific-Rim stock markets. The causality in variances test method of Cheung and Ng (1996), a multivariate GARCH model and VAR analyses are employed to model conditional volatilities and study the dynamic responses of volatilities to innovations in conditional variances. The results suggest that while the stock markets are correlated in returns and volatilities contemporaneously and with lags, idiosyncratic factors play important roles in national stock markets. In addition, the dynamic adjustment of the market return volatilities can take a much longer time than previously reported in some of the countries studied.     

Long-Run Comovements in East Asian Stock Market Volatility

Two integrated stock markets are generally subjected to common shocks revealing that commonalities in fundamentals drive their underlying return processes. In such a case, volatility series should share a long-run component although their transitory components might temporary diverge. In this paper, we investigate stock market integration in East Asia by analyzing the co-persistent nature of their ex-post observed volatility. Using recent fractional cointegration techniques, we find that volatility of several markets converges in the long run to a common equilibrium. Our results reveal that a global integration process drives the most developed markets of the region, while no evidence of co-persistence appears for emerging markets.     

The co-movement of stock markets in East Asia: Did the 1997–1998 Asian financial crisis really strengthen stock market integration?

This paper examines the integration and causality of interdependencies among seven major East Asian stock exchanges before, during, and after the 1997–1998 Asian financial crisis. For this purpose, we use daily stock market data from July 1, 1992 to June 30, 2003 in local currency as well as US dollar terms. The data reveal that the relationships among East Asian stock markets are time varying. While stock market interactions are limited before the Asian financial crisis, we find that Hong Kong and Singapore respond significantly to shocks in most other East Asian markets, including Shanghai and Shenzhen, during this crisis. After the crisis, shocks in Hong Kong and Singapore largely affect other East Asian stock markets, except for those in Mainland China. Finally, considering the role of the USA shows that it strongly influences stock returns in East Asia – except for Mainland China – in all periods, while the reverse does not hold true.     

Financial market integration,exchange rate policy,and the dynamics of business and employment in Korea

We study the consequences of different degrees of international financial market integration and exchange rate policies in a calibrated, medium-scale model of the Korean economy. The model features endogenous producer entry into domestic and export markets and search-and-matching frictions in labor markets. This allows us to highlight the consequences of financial integration and the exchange rate regime for the dynamics of business creation and unemployment. We show that, under flexible exchange rates, access to international financial markets increases the volatility of both business creation and the number of exporting plants, but the effects on employment volatility are more modest. Pegging the exchange rate can have unfavorable consequences for the effects of terms of trade appreciation, but more financial integration is beneficial under a peg if the economy is subject to both productivity and terms of trade shocks. The combination of a floating exchange rate and internationally complete markets would be the best scenario for Korea among those we focus on.