Ethnic fractionalisation, migration and growth

This paper has the aim of contributing to the existing research by analysing two particular topics. First of all, we show that the model specifications by Alesina et al. (J Econ Growth 8:155–194, 2003), which connects high ethnic fractionalisation to lower growth via bad policy variables, cannot fully explain the negative ethnic fractionalisation effect of the 1990s Sub-Saharan African growth experience. Moreover, we show that the remaining negative effect of ethnic fractionalisation on growth in Sub-Saharan Africa in the 1990s is due to an increased importance of adverse governance. Second, and on a very different note, we empirically investigate if ethnic fractionalisation might have a positive effect in a nation which is ethnically diverse due to immigration. There is evidence that it is important to distinguish between these two different kinds of ethnic fractionalisation.     

Local exposure to toxic releases: Examining the role of ethnic fractionalization and polarisation

This paper examines the role played by community characteristics in influencing local exposure to toxic releases, focusing specifically on ethnic fractionalization and polarisation. In contrast to the previous literature, this study argues that it is the fractionalization and/or polarisation of ethnic groups that is the relevant consideration, rather than the population share of ethnic minorities, since such ethnic divisions may significantly increase the difficulty of coordinating community action. Using toxic release data for the periods 1990 to 1995 and 2000 to 2005 we find that measures of ethnic divisions have a positive relationship with toxic releases. This finding persists across a range of robustness exercises.     

Population heterogeneity and growth

I investigate the robustness of the link between growth and heterogeneity in a population along ethnic, linguistic, religious, and socio-economic class lines using cross-country data covering the period 1960–92 and 72 countries. In addition to 21 distinct explanatory variables extensively used in the empirical growth literature, I consider several fragmentation and polarization indices capturing the heterogeneity in a population to deal with measurement uncertainty, and utilize Bayesian Model Averaging techniques to address uncertainty issues regarding model specification. My results indicate that while substantial data evidence favors the inclusion of population heterogeneity as a theory when proxied by fragmentation indices, it does not support the inclusion of this theory when proxied by polarization indices. Furthermore, the religious fragmentation index has the strongest evidence in favor of its inclusion as opposed to ethnic and linguistic fragmentation indices and income inequality.     

Fractionalization

We provide new measures of ethnic, linguistic, and religious fractionalization for about 190 countries. These measures are more comprehensive than those previously used in the economics literature and we compare our new variables with those previously used. We also revisit the question of the effects of ethnic, linguistic, and religious heterogeneity on the quality of institutions and growth. We partly confirm and partly modify previous results. The patterns of cross-correlations between potential explanatory variables and their different degree of endogeneity makes it hard to make unqualified statements about competing explanations for economic growth and the quality of government. Our new data, which features the underlying group structure of ethnicities, religions and languages, also allows the computation of alternative measures of heterogeneity, and we turn to measures of polarization as an alternative to the commonly used index of fractionalization.     

The impacts of religion,political ideology,and social capital on religious and secular giving: evidence from the 2006 Social Capital Community Survey

Using a double hurdle model and data from the 2006 Social Capital Community Survey (SCCS2006) we examine religious and secular giving, focusing on the impacts of religion, political ideology and social capital. Our main results indicate that greater participation in religious activities positively impacts religious and secular giving, the intensity of religious belief increases religious giving at the expense of secular giving, religious giving by very conservative individuals is higher than for other ideological groups, and measures of social capital are very important in raising the level and likelihood of philanthropic giving.     

Economic,social and political fragmentation: Linking knowledge-biased growth,identity, populism and protectionism

This paper examines how economic fragmentation (widening inequality of skills, income and education) gives rise to social fragmentation (via incompatible social identities), generating political fragmentation (via incompatible economic policies). We consider three value-driven identities: individualism, focused on status concerns, communitarianism, focused on social affiliations, and multi-affiliatedness, encompassing both objectives. Under endogenous identity formation high-skill people are drawn to individualism, the lower-skilled to communitarianism, and those of intermediate skill to multi-affiliatedness. Skill- and education-biased growth leads to increasing social polarisation, expanding the individualistic and communitarian groups at the expense of multi-affiliates. This expands the political constituency for closed policies (such as protectionism, immigration controls and nationalism), even when these policies reduce everyone's living standards. Our analysis thereby helps explain the economic and social underpinnings of populism.     

Ethnic diversity and economic development

This paper analyzes the role that different indices and dimensions of ethnicity play in the process of economic development. Firstly, we discuss the advantages and disadvantages of alternative data sources for the construction of indices of religious and ethnic heterogeneity. Secondly, we compare the index of fractionalization and the index of polarization. We argue that an index of the family of discrete polarization measures is the adequate indicator to measure potential conflict. We find that ethnic (religious) polarization has a large and negative effect on economic development through the reduction of investment and the increase of government consumption and the probability of a civil conflict.     

Is mortality spatial or social?

Mortality modelling for the purposes of demographic forecasting and actuarial pricing is generally done at an aggregate level using national data. Modelling at this level fails to capture the variation in mortality within country and potentially leads to a mis-specification of mortality forecasts for a subset of the population. This can have detrimental effects for pricing and reserving in the actuarial context. In this paper we consider mortality rates at a regional level and analyse the variation in those rates. We consider whether variation in mortality rates within a country can be explained using local economic and social variables. Using Northern Ireland data on mortality and measures of deprivation we identify the variables explaining mortality variation. We create a population polarisation variable and find that this variable is significant in explaining some of the variation in mortality rates. Further, we consider whether spatial and non-spatial models have a part to play in explaining mortality differentials.     

Where Did All the Growth Go? External Shocks, Social Conflict, and Growth Collapses

This article argues that domestic social conflicts are a key to understanding why growth rates lack persistence and why so many countries have experienced a growth collapse since the mid-1970s. It emphasizes, in particular, the manner in which social conflicts interact with external shock on the one hand, and the domestic institutions of conflict-management on the other. Econometric evidence provides support for this hypothesis. Countries that experienced the sharpest drops in growth after 1975 were those with divided societies (as measured by indicators of inequality, ethnic fragmentation, and the like) and with weak institutions of conflict management (proxied by indicators of the quality of governmental institutions, rule of law, democratic rights, and social safety nets).     

宁夏南部回族社区形成的环境分析

自然环境和社会人文环境既是制约经济发展的重要因素，也是形成社区空间格局的基本要素。本文在对宁夏南部回族社区形成的环境因素进行全面分析的基础上，剖析了这一地区环境变迁与回族社区空间结构的演化及社区经济贫困化之间的互动关系。     

Does ethnic diversity decrease economic interactions? Evidence from exchange networks in rural Gambia

Using a unique dataset collected in 59 rural Gambian villages, we study how ethnic heterogeneity is related to the structure of four economic exchange networks: land, labour, inputs and credit. We find that different measures of village‐level ethnic fragmentation are mostly uncorrelated with network structure. At a more disaggregated level, household heads belonging to ethnic minorities are not less central than those from the predominant ethnicity in any of the networks and, at the dyadic level, the fact that two households share ethnicity is not an economically significant predictor of link formation. Our results indicate that, in the particular setting of our study, the structure of the exchange networks is better defined by other variables than ethnicity and that ethnic heterogeneity is unlikely to be a driver for sub‐optimal economic exchanges.     

Social norms and the fertility transition

This paper provides a norm-based explanation for two features of the fertility transition that have been observed in many different settings: the slow response to external interventions and the wide variation in the response to the same intervention. Most societies have traditionally put norms into place to regulate fertility. When the economic environment changes, individuals gradually learn through their social interactions about the new reproductive equilibrium that will emerge in their community. This characterization of the fertility transition as a process of changing social norms is applied to rural Bangladesh, where norms are organized at the level of the religious group and interactions rarely cross religious boundaries. Consistent with the view that changing social norms are driving changes in reproductive behavior in these communities, we find that the individual's contraception decision responds strongly to changes in contraceptive prevalence in her own religious group within the village whereas cross-religion effects are entirely absent. Local changes in reproductive behavior occur independently across religious groups despite the fact that all individuals in the village have access to the same family planning inputs.     

Estimating the social cost of pesticide use: An assessment from acute poisoning in Brazil

The intensive use of pesticides in countries like Brazil has ignored structural and institutional shortfalls, such as the lack of workforce training for the new, difficult to implement technologies, and the institutional vulnerability of the environmental protection, health, and safety sectors. As a result we have “invisible” or social, environmental and health costs which end up being socialised with the farmer, in general, having no incentives to recognise and internalise them. This study is intended to review and develop this problem in the light of the Brazilian reality. To this end, we make use of an empirical exercise to illustrate estimation of the social cost associated with acute poisoning by pesticide using the PREVS/IBGE data (Harvest Forecast Research) in the state of Paraná, Brazil. The results suggest that, for maize, the costs of acute poisoning could represent 64% of the benefits of using herbicides and insecticides, and, in the best of hypotheses, when some risk factors are eliminated, they may reach 8% of the benefits of the use of these products. Similarly, when we examine future scenarios for five and ten years, we find less encouraging results, as in ten years the costs of acute poisoning could reach around 85% of the benefit of using insecticides and herbicides for maize. However, there is the encouraging news that, if preventive measures were taken during this time, the gains would be considerable, about 6.5 times greater. We conclude that an assessment of the real benefits involved with pesticides in Brazil is required, principally in regard to the smallholder, where farmers need more training in the use — or even the elimination — of these hazardous substances. There are sustainable technological options available which are economically efficient, especially if we consider the social, environmental and health costs. In this context it is worth highlighting the role of regulatory measures as a mechanism which can reorient generation of negative external costs through the reduction of current incentives in the socialisation of private costs.     

新疆社会事业发展现状分析及对策探讨

社会事业的建设和发展与人民群众的幸福安康息息相关。胡锦涛总书记在党的“十七大”报告中提出,要加快推进以改善民生为重点的社会建设,并对此作了明确部署：要在发展经济的基础上,更加注重社会建设,着力保障和改善民生。新疆是一个多民族聚居地区,是我国对外开放的重要门户,加快发展社会事业对构建社会主义和谐社会、全面改善人民生活以及新疆的社会稳定和经济发展具有重要意义。本文对新疆社会事业的发展现状及存在问题进行深入研究,并提出相应的对策和建议。     

Adam Smith on Relations of Subordination, Personal Incentives and the Division of Labour

In elaborating his stadial approach to economic and social progress, Smith placed special emphasis on the evolution of the conceptual pair authority/subordination. The aim of this paper is to analyse the reciprocal relations which link together the evolution of the relations of subordination, personal incentives, and the division of labour with special reference to the agricultural and the commercial stages. In the former case, Smith pointed out the exclusive role performed by personal incentives in increasing labour productivity, a role which is consistent with his manifest preference for the figure of the 'independent small-scale proprietor'. In the latter case we note a change of emphasis due both to the pervasive role of the division of labour in increasing labour productivity, and—as a by-product of this change—to the emergence of a new form of relation of subordination. In this new context the division of labour engenders a new form of property polarisation, one connected no longer to land but to capital accumulation. Moreover, because of its harmful effects on the mental capacity of manufacturing workers, the division of labour appears to act as an obstacle against social mobility, and this in turn further reinforces the process of property polarisation.     

Seeds of distrust: conflict in Uganda

We study the effect of civil conflict on social capital, focusing on Uganda’s experience during the last decade. Using individual and county-level data, we document large causal effects on trust and ethnic identity of an exogenous outburst of ethnic conflicts in 2002–2005. We exploit two waves of survey data from Afrobarometer (Round 4 Afrobarometer Survey in Uganda, 2000, 2008), including information on socioeconomic characteristics at the individual level, and geo-referenced measures of fighting events from ACLED. Our identification strategy exploits variations in the both the spatial and ethnic intensity of fighting. We find that more intense fighting decreases generalized trust and increases ethnic identity. The effects are quantitatively large and robust to a number of control variables, alternative measures of violence, and different statistical techniques involving ethnic and spatial fixed effects and instrumental variables. Controlling for the intensity of violence during the conflict, we also document that post-conflict economic recovery is slower in ethnically fractionalized counties. Our findings are consistent with the existence of a self-reinforcing process between conflicts and ethnic cleavages.     

我国生活废弃物的经济分析与对策

I. Introduction Domestic wastes refer to discharges that are produced by our daily life or other social activities and cannot be utilized or recycled within certain time and spatial extent. Firstly, the sources of domestic wastes are various and scattered, such as wastes produced by consumption, various rubbishes in daily life etc. Domestic wastes in- volve every field, enterprise, and individual. However, the wastes have not been treated rationally to lead to envi- ronmental pollution. Secon…     

Trust in the image of God: Links between religiosity and reciprocity in Haiti

Are religious believers more prosocial than other people? In a trust game field experiment with 774 subjects in Haiti, we elicit willingness to pay to play in the presence of religious images, and argue that this can be interpreted as a measure of the strength of religiosity. More religious individuals trust others more and reciprocate more than others, with effect sizes between 14% and 21% of mean behaviour depending on the measure. They do not reciprocate more in the presence of religious images than without them, nor towards members of the same denomination as themselves. The results support the view that religious affiliation is correlated with intrinsic trustworthiness. We show that lab behaviour correlates with intuitive measures of religiosity outside the lab and with participation in borrowing and lending networks.     

One size may not fit all: Financial fragmentation and European monetary policies

This article investigates the impact of European Central Bank policies on credits considering financial and banking fragmentation. Using European data from the past decade, we estimate SVAR models to analyze the regional impact of conventional and unconventional measures on price and volume indicators of fragmentation. The risk-taking channel is studied using GVAR models to document the national consequences of this fragmentation. We find that unconventional measures increase credit in peripheral countries. Monetary policies alleviate fragmentation, but mostly in terms of price dispersion rather than credit volume. Finally, unconventional measures imply a rebalancing of European bank assets in favor of foreign currency denominated-assets.     

Inequality, Polarisation and Welfare: Theory and Applications

In this paper we explore the possibility of using the Atkinson (1970) – Kolm (1969) – Sen (1973) general ethical index in polarisation measurement. It is shown that though inequality and polarisation are two dissimilar concepts, different indices of inequality may be used to generate alternative indices of polarisation. A numerical illustration based on Indian household expenditure survey data is provided using several polarisation indices.