RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN COUNT DATA MODELLING: THEORY AND APPLICATION

Abstract. This paper deals with statistical methods for modelling individual behavior when the endogenous variable is a nonnegative integer. Examples are the number of children, the number of job changes or the number of shopping trips in a given period. Several approaches—Poisson, robust Poisson, negative binomial (NEGBIN), NEGBIN _k , hurdle Poisson, truncated-at-zero Poisson—are discussed with a focus on specification, estimation, and testing. An application to labor mobility data illustrates the gain obtained by carefully taking into account the specific structure of the data.     

PURCHASING POWER PARITY IN LESS-DEVELOPED AND TRANSITION ECONOMIES: A REVIEW PAPER

Abstract.  The concept of purchasing power parity (PPP) has been the subject of numerous studies, many of which have been unable to prove conclusively this core principle of international finance. Although industrialized countries have received most of the attention, studies that focus on less-developed and transition economies have also attained mixed results. This study surveys trends in this branch of the literature, highlighting the econometric advances that have sought to solve this puzzle, while pointing out that more needs to be done to address the reasons that might cause PPP not to hold.     

PATENTS,R&D,AND TECHNOLOGICAL SPILLOVERS AT THE FIRM LEVEL: SOME EVIDENCE FROM ECONOMETRIC COUNT MODELS FOR PANEL DATA

This paper analyses the relationship between the main determinants of technological activity and patent applications. To this end, an original panel of 181 international manufacturing firms investing substantial amounts in R&D during the late 1980s has been constructed. The number of patent applications by firms is explained by current and lagged levels of R&D expenditures and technological spillovers. Technological and geographical opportunities are also taken into account as additional determinants. In order to examine this relationship, several econometric models for count panel data are estimated. These models deal with the discrete nature of patents and firm specific unobservables arising from the panel data context. The main findings of the paper are first, a high sensitivity of results to the specification of patent distribution. Second, the estimates of the preferred GMM panel data method suggest decreasing returns to scale in technological activity and finally a positive impact of technological spillovers on firm's own innovation. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

TRADE INTEGRATION,OUTSOURCING AND EMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRIA: A DECOMPOSITION APPROACH

Outsourcing and trade integration of advanced countries is debated with respect to employment effects, in particular for low educated workers – at least in relative terms. We study the employment effects – differentiated by educational attainment levels – of changes in the patterns of trade integration and outsourcing in the Austrian economy over the periods 1995–2000 and 2000–2005 using hierarchical decomposition analysis based on deflated input–output tables. Outsourcing is modeled as changes in the shares of domestically produced intermediates in total intermediates. A similar decomposition of the final demand vector allows us to draw conclusions on the overall employment effects of trade integration. The results suggest that the expected negative employment effects of outsourcing and rising import penetration have been overcompensated by increasing exports. Thus, the overall employment effects of Austrian trade integration have been positive for all educational attainment groups. However, whereas the total effects have been strongest for medium and high educated workers over the period 1995–2000, employment of low educated workers have been strongest and positively affected over the period 2000–2005. This pattern can be explained by a more sluggish export performance together with stronger negative effects of outsourcing and import penetration in medium and high-skill intensive products.     

INEQUALITY, ETHNICITY AND THE FIGHT AGAINST CORRUPTION IN AFRICA: A KENYAN PERSPECTIVE

Perceptions of inequality among different ethnic groups have the power to shape the fortunes of nations by affecting the political and economic choices of both ruling elites and their voters. In ethnically heterogeneous African states with a tradition of political patronage economic inequality is manifested along ethnic and regional lines. This paper argues for a constitutional dispensation that includes both the diffusion of executive power and systematic action in regard to structural economic inequalities that have assumed an ethnic expression.     

INTEGRATED SYSTEM, AUTONOMOUS DEPARTMENTS: ORGANIZATIONAL INVALIDITY AND SYSTEM CHANGE IN A UNIVERSITY*

Research on the relationship between computers and organization structure has mainly focused on the probable impact of technology on features of structure, while the effects of structure on technology have been relatively little considered apart from the way ‘organizationally invalid’ systems cause conflict and resistance. In recent processual perspectives, the relationship between technology and organization is seen not as deterministic but as one of mutual influence, with the outcome both for the organization and the technology emerging from interaction among various stakeholders during system development and implementation. This article, using a longitudinal case study, shows how organization structures can impact on the development process so as to alter computer-based systems to a design which is unintended but more consistent with existing organizational arrangements. It also discusses how systems specialists and managers can assess organizational invalidity, and offers a contingent framework for the courses of action to be taken if invalidity occurs.     

HOUSING POLICY ISSUES IN A RICH COUNTRY WITH HIGH POPULATION GROWTH: THE CASE OF RIYADH, SAUDI ARABIA

Riyadh is a dynamic city characterized by extremely rapid growth over the past quarter of a century. Nevertheless, its housing stock is generally of high quality. This article explores the city's current and future housing issues. It does so in the context of projecting Riyadh's housing needs, both physical units and corresponding investment, over the 20-year period beginning in 2004. The analysis was carried out using the Housing Needs Assessment Model developed by the Urban Institute and applied in a number of countries. The results show that the great majority of Riyadh's residents will continue to have very favorable housing conditions. Still, several percent of all households (more than 50 000 in the middle of the projection period) will face housing affordability problems. We argue for implementation of a rental housing allowance program to address this issue. Additionally, it is an open question as to whether the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia will be able to continue to provide housing consistent with the aspirations of middle class families. The analysis pays particular attention to the presence of a large number of guest workers and of the practice of employer-provided housing.     

BANKING AND BORROWING IN THE EU ETS: A REVIEW OF ECONOMIC MODELLING,CURRENT PROVISIONS AND PROSPECTS FOR FUTURE DESIGN

Abstract This paper deals with the issue of banking and borrowing in the context of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) by attempting to provide a policy‐oriented unifying theoretical framework. After describing the main features of the EU ETS, the core part of the paper consists of variations of an intertemporal continuous time optimization model. Additional elements include flexibility measures currently discussed and proposed in other emissions trading systems (USA, Australia), which include the use of safety valves, minimum price auctioning or offsets from domestic or international projects.     

ENGINEERS,MANAGEMENT AND WORK ORGANIZATION: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ENGINEERS' WORK ROLES IN BRITISH AND JAPANESE ELECTRONICS FIRMS*

Many commentators have attributed the poor performance of British manufacturing to the ‘under-representation’ of engineers in management, and have proposed policies for bringing more engineers into management so as to develop a technologically oriented management culture. This paper argues that the under-representation of engineers in management is a symptom not the root cause of the problem, which lies in the split between technical and managerial expertise at the enterprise level. Based on a comparative analysis of engineers’ work roles and the relationship between technical and managerial functions in British and Japanese electronics firms, the paper argues that the mechanistically structured organization systems in the British firms generate a vertical polarization between technical and managerial roles, inhibit knowledge sharing and lead to the gross under-utilization of engineers in product development. A technologically oriented management cannot simply be achieved by getting more engineers into management. It requires, instead, organizational restructuring and changes in work practices to enable a better integration between technical and managerial expertise.     

DEMAND,CUSTOMER BASE‐LINE AND DEMAND RESPONSE IN THE ELECTRICITY MARKET: A SURVEY

The increasing use of demand‐side management, as a tool to reliably meet electricity demands at peak time, has stimulated interest among researchers, consumers and producer organiza‐tions, managers, regulators and policymakers. This research reviews the growing literature on models which are used to study demand, customer base‐line (CBL) and demand response in the electricity market. After characterizing the general demand models, the CBL, based on which the demand response models are studied, is reviewed. Given the experience gained from the review and existing conditions, the study combines an appropriate model for each case for a possible application to the electricity market; moreover, it discusses the implications of the results. In the literature, these aspects are studied independently. The main contribution of this survey is attributed to the treatment of the three issues as sequentially interdependent. The review is expected to enhance the understanding of the demand, CBL and demand response in the electricity market and their relationships. The objective is conducted through a combination of demand and supply side managements in order to reduce demand through different demand response programs during peak times. This enables electricity suppliers to save costly electricity generation and at the same time reduce energy vulnerability.     

A REVIEW OF THE BRITISH ACADEMY REPORT,PUNCHING OUR WEIGHT: THE HUMANITIES AND SOCIAL SCIENCES IN PUBLIC POLICY MAKING1

The report argues that policy‐makers fail to make effective use of the high quality research of UK academics in the humanities and social sciences. Yet greater co‐operation between the government and academia could undermine the independence of the latter by increasing the role of the state in the funding and direction of university research.