Productivity Growth in Different Plant‐size Groups in the Malaysian Manufacturing Sector*

In the present study, we develop a stochastic frontier production model that allows for different groups of firms to have different patterns of technical efficiency over time. We apply our model to the Malaysian manufacturing sector to decompose total factor productivity growth into technical efficiency change and technical progress for different plant size groups (e.g. large and small) in seven industries during 2000–2004. Our empirical results indicate that technical efficiency has worsened across all industries and plant‐size groups. In contrast, we find evidence of substantial technical progress in all industries. In fact, technical progress has been larger than technical efficiency deterioration in most industries and plant‐size groups, leading to total factor productivity growth. Our analysis identifies the industries and plant‐size groups that lag the most in terms of productivity, and thus have the greatest scope for policies that facilitate productivity growth.     

Role of TFP in China's Growth*

This paper uses the dual approach to growth accounting to examine the role of total factor productivity (TFP) in recent Chinese growth. Most previous growth accounting studies on China have followed the primal approach, which depends heavily on the national income accounts. Unfortunately, despite efforts to rectify them, Chinese national income accounts data continue to have problems that affect primal approach growth accounting results. The dual approach, in contrast, allows independent price information to play a role. Recent research has focused on the following two questions: (i) How significant has TFP's role been in post‐reform Chinese growth? (ii) Has TFP growth rate slowed down in more recent years? This paper finds that: (i) the TFP growth rate for mainland China computed using the dual approach also proves high; and (ii) there has been some slowdown in TFP growth rate in recent years.     

Growth and Productivity in Singapore Manufacturing Industries: 1975–1998

Consistently defined price and volume relatives are constructed for 18 manufacturing industries under the two-digit industry classifications officially adopted in 1996. Industry-specific output and materials price deflators for the period 1974–1998 are also constructed. Where the comparison is possible, we arrive at a markedly different conclusion from those in Tsao (1982, 1985 ) and Young (1994 ), and narrow the cause to a difference in the choice of output measure. The updated accounts show that the conventional index number measure of total factor productivity growth (TFPG) for Singapore manufacturing is 2.7% per annum for the period 1975–1998, and exhibits a cyclical pattern over time.     

Human Capital and Economic Growth in Asia 1890–2000: A Time‐series Analysis*

There is a general consensus that human capital is a major factor behind long‐run economic growth. Yet, on a macro level, the empirical results do not always seem to concur with this view. To explain this gap between theory and empirics, more focus has been laid on measurement error and data quality. Using an alternative estimate of the stock of human capital, based on Judson (2002), we find evidence that the two major views on the role of human capital in economic development by Lucas (1988) and Romer (1990) coexist and are by no means mutually exclusive. Using a Johansen cointegration test, we find that in India and Indonesia the level of human capital is cointegrated with the level of aggregate income during the whole 20th century, which confirms the theory of Lucas (1988). In Japan, however, the Lucasian approach can be verified only for the first half of the century, while after 1950 there is cointegration between the growth rate of aggregate income and the level of human capital, which is in line with Romer's view.     

THE ROLE OF HUMAN CAPITAL IN CHINA'S TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH: A CROSS‐PROVINCE ANALYSIS

This paper studies the role of human capital in China's provincial total factor productivity (TFP) growth over 1985–2004. The stochastic frontier approach is employed to measure the productivity growth of Chinese provinces. Human capital is measured both qualitatively and quantitatively. In particular, enrolment rates at various levels of schooling are used to represent human capital composition. After controlling for endogeneity, we find that human capital has significant and positive effects on the TFP growth of Chinese provinces. However, when education quality is incorporated, productivity growth appears to be significantly enhanced by quality improvements in primary education only. Regional impacts of human capital are found to differ at various levels of schooling. In the eastern region of China, productivity growth is significantly associated with secondary education. TFP growth in the central region is mainly promoted by primary and university education. Yet in the western region, primary education plays the most prominent role.     

Catching up to the European core: Portuguese economic growth, 1910–1990

This paper analyses the causes of Portuguese catching-up to the European core, in the 20th century, within a growth accounting framework. It concludes that investment in human and physical capital was the main driving force of economic growth and that variation in output growth rates are attributable to changes in total factor productivity growth. The paper explains the decline in TFP growth after 1973 in terms of structural change in the industrial sector.     

Growth in China's Grain Production 1978–1997: A Disaggregate Analysis

This paper analyzes China’s grain production during 1978–97. Using disaggregate approach to explore disparities in growth patterns of respective crops, the study reveals that during this period, almost all the increased output can be attributed to the growth of rice, wheat and corn. The contribution of other crops as a whole was almost negligible. The disparities in growth patterns were partly the result of crop adjustments, induced by changes in food demand, and dominated by substitutions of high-yield crops for low-yield crops. In this process, the adoption of new technologies played an important role. Varying opportunity costs of grain production in different areas also affected growth patterns of respective crops. The trend in China’s grain production in the past two decades suggests that the adherence to grain self-sufficiency has become not only increasingly costly but also unnecessary.     

Sources of Growth and Structural Change in the Vietnamese Economy, 1996–2003: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis*

We use the MONASH‐VN model, a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the Vietnamese economy, to investigate Vietnam's rapid growth and structural change over the period 1996 to 2003. We do this in two steps. First, we estimate changes in variables representing production technologies, consumer preferences, government policy and other structural features of the economy. Movements in these structural and policy variables are then used to explain the recent history of Vietnam's rapid growth and structural change. We find the most important sources of growth and change to be technical improvements, favorable shifts in foreign demand for Vietnamese goods and employment growth. Other important factors include movement in household preferences away from primary products and towards manufactures and services, expansion in agricultural land supply, and tax reform.