Productivity Trends in Europe: Implications for Real Exchange Rates, Real Interest Rates, and Inflation

The paper examines a long–run (neoclassical) framework in which differences in productivity growth across sectors and countries lead to inflation differentials. In a currency union, these inflation differentials imply cross–country differentials in real interest rates. The authors estimate the likely size of these differentials for European Union countries, discuss the potential costs of persistent inflation differentials, and comment on the conflicts they may cause within Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). The analytical framework is a variant of the Balassa–Samuelson "productivity hypotheisis," which relates sectoral productivity trends to trends in the relative price of home goods.     

Productivity Shocks and Real Effective Exchange Rates

This paper provides new insights into the relationship between exchange rates and productivity developments for European Economies. We focus on the question whether productivity changes have a long‐run impact on real effective exchange rates for a large number of European economies. Focusing on a sample period running from 1995 until 2013, we adopt a cointegrated vector autoregressive approach and distinguish between long‐run equilibrium, short‐run dynamics and long‐run impact of shocks. Our findings show that for several industrialized economies, real effective exchange rates and labor productivity are not related over the long‐run. A possible explanation for this result is that wage developments do not reflect increases in labor productivity to a large degree, which prevents a transmission to the real effective exchange rate through the price channel. The results for Central and Eastern European Countries are more encouraging since a positive impact of labor productivity on real effective exchange rate is frequently observed.     

Current Account Imbalances and Real Exchange Rates in the Euro Area*

Global current account imbalances have been one of the focal points of interest for policymakers during the last few years. Less attention has been paid, however, to the diverging current account balances of the individual euro area countries. In this paper we consider the dynamics of current account adjustment and the role of real exchange rates in current account determination in the EMU countries. After controlling for the effects of income growth, we find the relationship between real exchange rates and current accounts to be substantial in size and subject to nonlinear effects. We find that real exchange rates can offer further insights, beyond the effects of the income catch‐up process, relevant to current account determination in the EMU.     

Managed Exchange Rates*

Managed exchange rates have become a tool of macroeconomic stabilization policy. Much of the previous emphasis on parametrically chosen exchange rate regimes has missed the advantages of a strategy of a variable target exchange rate when the central bank tries to maintain equilibrium output in the face of various shocks to the economy. Based on a standard IS-LM-AS macromodel, optimal combinations of exchange rate and money supply changes are found that insulate the economy against all stipulated shocks. However, these combinations vary from one shock to another; therefore recognition signals are necessary. Continuous information on some variables allows the central bank to identify shocks if they can be guaranteed to occur individually, but not otherwise. As a second-best strategy, ‘defensively managed exchange rates’ appear suitable. The paper also discusses some side effects and other practical difficulties of a managed exchange rate as an automatic stabilizer.     

Democratization and Real Exchange Rates,

In this article, we combine two so far separate strands of the economic literature and argue that democratization leads to a real exchange rate appreciation. We test this hypothesis empirically for a sample of countries observed from 1980 to 2007 by combining a difference‐in‐difference approach with propensity score matching estimators. Our empirical results reveal a strong and significant finding: democratization causes real exchange rates to appreciate. Consequently, the ongoing process of democratization observed in many parts of the world is likely to reduce exchange rate distortions.     

汇率、利率、税率：名义和实际

当前我国经济运行情况以及面临的问题 过去的一年里，我国经济保持了稳定增长的态势，在全球经济特别是关、日和欧三大经济体同时陷入衰退的情况下，2001年我国国内生产总值达到95800多亿元，同比增长率为7．3％。更令人感到鼓舞的是，中国在2001年加入WTO，正式成为世界贸易组织的一员，中国的对外开放进入了一个新的阶段。 但在成功数字的外表下，我们还应该看到中国经济的一些问题以及在2002年可能遇到或者已经遇到的一些难题。2001年中国经济增长前高后低，四个季度的经济增长一路滑坡，前3个季度的增长速度分别是8．1％、7．8％和7％，第4季度GDP增长也很难达到7％，11月份居民消费价格总水平比去年同月下降3％，又面临通货紧缩的威胁。2001年的经济增长，主要是由国内投资和消费需求的增长拉动的。由于国际经济严重衰退，一方面，我国出口增速下降，大约在6％左右，净出口减少，对经济增长的贡献度为负值；另一方面，促使外资流入加快，实际利用外资增长近20％，减弱了出口下降的影响。……     

The Usual Suspects? Productivity and Demand Shocks and Asia–Pacific Real Exchange Rates

A productivity-based model of East Asian relative prices and real exchange rates is tested using calculated productivity levels for China, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand. Time-series regressions of the exchange rate on relative productivity ratios indicate such a relationship for Japan, Malaysia, and the Philippines (and Indonesia and Korea when oil prices are included). Panel regression provides slightly more encouraging results when the panel encompasses a subset of countries (Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, and the Philippines). Neither government spending nor the terms of trade appear to be important factors.     

Convergence in Per Capita Income Levels, Productivity Dynamics and Real Exchange Rates in the EU Acceding Countries

During a catch up process – such as the one that thecountries acceding to the EU are undergoing – there emergesa fundamental economic link between nominal and realvariables which surfaces in the dynamics of the realexchange rate (the ``Balassa–Samuelson effect'). Thisarticle analyzes some of the implications of this process forthe acceding countries addressing three main issues.First it focuses on the empirical measurement of convergencebetween acceding countries and EU-member states. Thenit analyzes the economic fundamentals of a catch up processarguing that for this process to be self-sustained, it must bebased on differential productivity growth whereby productivityin the acceding countries grows faster than that in the incumbents.Thirdly, an attempt is made to test empirically theBalassa–Samuelson effect in the EU acceding countries. Finally the article discusses some of the policy implications of thedichotomy ``real-cum-nominal convergence' on the way to EUand EMU accession.     

The Hysteretic Effects on the Real Exchange Rates

In this paper we investigate the dynamics developed from the exchange rate relative price relationship using a hysteresis framework. The rationale for such hysteretic effects is in terms of firms' unresponsiveness to the exchange rate changes due to pricing to market-type arguments.The empirical support of these ideas is derived by applying a linear approximation of the hysteretic effects.We conclude that the hysteretic effects are a source of non-linearity, strongly affecting the long-run relationship of exchange rate and prices.     

Theory and Tests of Generalized Purchasing-Power Parity: Common Trends and Real Exchange Rates In the Pacific Rim

The paper develops the theory of generalized purchasing-power parity (G-PPP) to explain the “stylized facts” of real exchange-rate behavior. the fundamental economic variables determining real exchange rates are nonstationary; thus, real rates are nonstationary. If the fundamentals are sufficiently integrated, as in a currency area, the real rates will share common trends. the theory is tested using the Pacific Rim nations. It is shown that G-PPP holds between each of the Pacific Rim nations and the large industrialized countries. There is only mild evidence that G-PPP holds among the Pacific Rim nations as a group.     

Does Productivity Growth Appreciate the Real Exchange Rate?*

Revisiting the time‐honored link between productivity growth and the real exchange rate, we find that higher labor productivity tends to appreciate the real exchange rate, consistent with the traditional view. Contrary to the traditional view, however, we find that the positive productivity effect is transmitted through the relative price between tradable goods, rather than through the relative price between tradables and nontradables. Moreover, higher total factor productivity is found to often depreciate the real exchange rate. These latter two pieces of evidence, combined with the conceptual strength of total factor productivity over labor productivity as a productivity measure, call for further refinement of the conventional view regarding the effect of productivity on the real exchange rate.     

The Real Yen Exchange Rate and Japanese Productivity Growth

This study investigates the time-series properties of five real yen exchange rates by testing for stationarity in the context of a single structural shift. It finds that all but one of the series are stationary in conjunction with a trend- or mean-break in the late 1950s or early 1970s. By comparison, most real rates for five other industrialized countries are stationary around a constant mean. These findings suggest that the behavior of the real yen exchange rate is unique among the six currencies in the sample, a difference that may originate in the exceptional productivity performance of the Japanese traded-goods sector.     

A Case for Managed Exchange Rates*

The incorporation of adaptive expectations by Dornbusch in a Mundell-Fleming model modifies significantly the traditional results of policy effectiveness in a small, open economy. While monetary policy is still able to influence aggregate demand when flexible exchange rates prevail, the effects of this policy on other important variables in the economy during the adjustment process to a new equilibrium may be considered sufficiently ‘disruptive’ so that the authorities will be hesitant to use their only fully-effective policy instrument for income-stabilization purposes. However, by adding a target level for the exchange rate to their list of goal variables and by using an appropriate mix of monetary and fiscal policies, it appears to be possible for the government to avoid these disruptive side effects.     

Exchange Rates and Long‐Term Bonds*

There is tentative evidence to suggest that the well‐documented empirical failure of uncovered interest parity (UIP) is confined to short‐term interest rates. However, tests of UIP for long‐term bonds are thwarted by various data problems. These data problems can be avoided by focusing on short investments in long‐term bonds. This paper concerns the relationship between changes in the US dollar–Deutsche Mark exchange rate and returns to short investments in US and German long‐term government bonds. The hypothesis that expected returns to investments in bonds denominated in the two currencies are equal is not rejected, and the estimated slope coefficients are positive. For corresponding short‐term interest rates, the typical finding of negative and large Fama coefficients is confirmed. We conclude that it is the maturity of the asset, rather than the investment horizon, that matters for the results.     

Time-Varying Behavior and Asymmetry in EMS Exchange Rates *

This paper explores the time-varying behavior of five EMS exchange rates namely, the Belgian Franc, Dutch Guilder, French Franc, Italian Lira and the Spanish Peseta vis-à-vis the Deutschemark from 1979 to 1998. The returns were examined using the Sign- and Volatility-Switching GARCH model, which is capable of accounting for potential asymmetries and the reversals in a series' volatility structure. The results point to significant sensitivities of the conditional variances of the French franc, the lira and the peseta to adverse shocks but notable responsiveness to favorable shocks by those of the other rates. Although asymmetry in the volatility structure of all rates is found in the period prior to Germany's reunification in 1990, it vanishes thereafter. Volatility persistence for all rates is noticeable in the first period but becomes more pronounced in the second, [F23, F31]     

What Determines Real Exchange Rates? The Nordic Countries

The model derived in this paper yields testable implications concerning the long‐run co‐movements of real exchange rates, relative labor productivity, the trade balance and terms of trade. Countries with relatively higher output growth, trade deficits or improved terms of trade are found to have more appreciated real exchange rates, with the main channel of transmission working through the relative price of nontraded goods. Exogenous terms‐of‐trade shocks are found to be the most important determinant of long‐run movements in the real exchange rate for Denmark and Norway, while demand shocks account for most of the long‐run variance in the real exchange rate for Finland and Sweden.     

Growth,Real Exchange Rates and Trade Protectionism since the Financial Crisis

Existing evidence suggests that protectionist activity since the financial crisis has been muted, raising the question whether the historically well‐documented relationship between growth, real exchange rates and trade protectionism has broken down. We use a novel and comprehensive dataset that stretches beyond the traditionally considered tariff and trade defense measures to study the responsiveness of trade policies to business cycles and price competitiveness in the time period since the financial crisis. We find that the specter of protectionism has not been banished. Countries continue to pursue more trade‐restrictive policies when they experience recessions and/or when their competitiveness deteriorates. Our results suggest that the global economy continues to be exposed to the risk of a creeping return of trade protectionism.     

The Enlargement of the European Union and the Behavior of Real Exchange Rates

The authors further investigate the conditional variance and the persistence of real exchange rate (RER) shocks between Germany and some core European Union (EU) members from January, 1973 through 2004. Using data for all EU15 countries, they test whether the enlargement of the Union has reduced the variability and the persistence of RER shocks between Germany and the rest of the members during the 1990s. They also examine the impact of the introduction of the euro on the variance and persistence of real exchange rate shocks. Finally, the authors extend the analysis to the new members who joined in May, 2004. The results have implications for the economic cost of joining the Union, as well as assessing the timing of the newest members to enter the eurozone.