Small Firm Dynamics: Evidence from Africa and Latin America

This paper investigates the determinants of survival and growth among small and very small enterprises in Africa and Latin America. Location is found to be an important factor. Firms located in urban and commercial areas are more likely to survive during a given year than those located in rural areas or those being operated out of home. Urban and commercial location is also associated with faster growth, as measured by the number of employees hired in a given year. Studies are also cited to show that human capital matters, especially when it is in the form of vocational training or prior business experience.     

Institutional investor heterogeneity and firm valuation: Evidence from Latin America

This article analyses how the corporate valuation of Latin American firms is affected by the presence of a blockholder institutional investor. The study uses a data set of 562 firms from six Latin American countries for the 1997–2011 period. We found that the presence of an institutional investor has a positive effect of 8% on firm value, which increases to 21% for the cases where there is blockholder coalition with an institutional investor. After dividing the sample by investor type, we found that independent institutional ownership implies a positive premium on firms' Tobin's Q, while the presence of a grey investor has a negative effect on firm valuation.     

Internet-based corporate disclosure and market value: Evidence from Latin America

We examine the relationship between an Internet-based corporate disclosure index and firm value in the seven largest stock markets of Latin America. We find, after controlling for firms' characteristics, industry and country of origin, that an increase of 1% in the Internet-Based Corporate Disclosure Index causes an increase of 0.1592% in the Tobin's Q and an increase of 0.0119% in the firm's ROA. These findings are robust after considering the potential endogeneity of our regression variables. The evidence contributes to the literature suggesting that firms can differentiate themselves by self-adopting better financial and corporate disclosure measures using the Internet.     

出口、对外投资与中国国家形象:来自拉丁美洲的证据

改革开放以来,中国对以开放促发展的道路进行了全面的探索,"走出去"战略的提出,加快了中国资本走出国门的步伐。国家形象作为"软实力"建设的重要一环,是否会受到越来越活跃的对外经济活动的影响,如何在不断扩大对外经济活动的同时塑造一个良好的国家形象?本文使用Latinobarómetro所提供的涵盖18个拉美国家的微观调查数据,尝试对这一问题做出回答。通过实证模型的检验,结果发现:中国出口的增加会降低东道国对于中国国家形象的评价,但影响程度较小,而对外投资则对中国国家形象有正向影响。通过加入表征个体特征变量与核心变量的交互项,文章发现受教育水平越高、经济条件越好以及具备学生身份的群体随着中国在东道国经济活动的增强,对于中国国家形象的评价会越高。分行业来看,初级产品部门的出口活动所引致的对于中国国家形象的负面评价最为显著;从具体的职业划分来看,无论是中国的出口总额、出口种类还是对外投资,对东道国个体经营者造成的影响相对于工薪阶层要更加显著。     

Foreign trade and economic growth: time series evidence from Latin America

This paper extends our understanding of the relationship between trade and growth by emphasizing time series evidence rather than the more traditional aggregate cross-section evidence from past studies. Cross-section studies obscure intercountry differences and sacrifice revealing information about dynamic behaviors within countries. Also, the nonstationary nature of many time series makes the use of period averages inappropriate. The use of time series data introduces other difficulties, however, and our analysis pays close attention to the possibility of spurious regressions, nonstationarity and cointegrating relationships among variables. Seventeen Latin American economies are examined, and a mixture of model forms must be applied to deal with the variety of temporal behaviors. The results confirm a positive relationship between export growth and aggregate economic growth over time for the majority of the seventeen countries.     

最优外汇储备与金融对外开放改革

在对当前最优外汇储备估算方法进行简要述评之后,本文利用具有中国经济特征的开放条件DSGE模型,对中国最优外汇储备进行了估计.结果表明,2004年以来中国外汇储备已超过对外支付和审慎预防性需求的最优规模,并从2014年开始向最优数量收敛.对不同改革情形下的最优外汇储备估计、外部需求脉冲响应和社会福利的比较分析表明,无论何种汇率安排,由于居民外汇资产配置效应和利率平价机制,资本开放下的最优外汇储备数量大多低于资本管制情形,经济在出现外部需求冲击时能够更迅速地恢复均衡,社会福利也明显高于资本管制情形;而且,资本开放汇率浮动的完全改革情形下的社会福利最高.尽管最近两年我国外汇储备规模下降迅速,但当前3万亿美元左右的外汇储备仍高于最优外汇储备规模,这对未来中国全面加快推进金融领域对外开放改革具有非常重要的启示意义.     

我国外汇储备存在的问题与对策

外汇储备的增长对于提高国家的对外支付能力、调节国际收支、维护国际信誉及提高融资能力等具有不可忽视的作用。然而外汇储备过多会导致经济结构失衡、增加机会成本的比例、增加通货膨胀压力,人民币升值压力,增加贸易摩擦、储备资产管理难度等问题。需要采取合理投资,完善银行管理措施,加强外汇储备管理等措施化解上述难题。     

Exchange rates and US direct investment into Latin America

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze separately the determinants of maritime transport and road transport costs for Spanish exports to Poland and Turkey (markets for which maritime and road transport are competing modes) and investigate the different effects of these costs on international trade. First, we investigate the extent to which maritime and road transport costs depend on different factors such as unit values, distances, transport conditions, service structures, and service quality. Second, we analyze the relative importance of road and maritime transport costs in comparison with distance measures as determinants of trade flows. The main results of this investigation indicate that real distance is not a good proxy for transportation costs and identify the central variables influencing road and maritime transportation costs: for both modes, transport conditions are strong determinants, whereas efficiency and service quality are more important for maritime transport costs, and geographical distance is more important for road transport. Road and maritime transport costs are central explanatory factors of exports and they seem to deter trade to a greater extent than road or maritime transit time when endogeneity is considered.     

The effect of ownership concentration and composition on dividends: Evidence from Latin America

We analyze a unique data set of publicly traded firms based in six Latin American countries to study the joint effect of ownership concentration and composition on dividend policy. We find that when ownership concentration is high and the largest investor is identified as an individual, firms tend to pay fewer dividends consistent with individual investors extracting benefits from minority shareholders. However, if the largest shareholder is based in a common law country, the dividend paid is significantly higher. Finally, greater ownership by the second largest shareholder decreases firm dividends suggesting the monitoring role of a large shareholder.     

我国外汇储备来源结构及其质量分析

随着我国经济的不断发展,经济全球化的持续深入,我国外汇储备规模快速增长。确定适度规模的外汇储备,必须先从外汇储备来源结构及其质量分析入手。通过整理国内相关文献,具体分析经常账户、资本和金融账户对我国外汇储备来源的贡献;外贸出口来源、吸引外资来源质量。提出优化我国外汇储备来源结构及提升外汇储备质量的对策建议:优化我国外贸出口结构,优化利用外资结构。     

The impact of internationalization degree on cash levels: Evidence from Latin America

Although cash management has been extensively studied, the cash policies of multinational corporations (MNCs) outside of the U.S. market have been underexplored. We fill this gap in the literature by comparing the cash policies of MNCs to those of non-MNCs in a Latin American setting (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru). Using different proxies for multinationality, we find evidence that the cash holdings of multilatinas are significantly higher than those of their domestic counterparts. Overall, given that foreign markets may offer the best investment opportunities for many MNCs, our results are consistent with the argument that multilatinas maintain higher cash levels to take advantage of the greater growth opportunities abroad. We contribute to the literature on cash management and international business by expanding knowledge regarding the efforts of MNCs in emerging markets. Our results hold following a series of robustness checks and endogeneity concerns.     

Chinese Government Pursues Active Diffluence in Foreign Exchange Reserves

Chinese foreign exchange reserves have risen from US$ 145 billion in 1999 to US$ 1433.6 billion in 2007, increasing by almost ten fold in less than ten years, this can be attributed to the sustained and rapid growth of the Chinese economy, and the increasing amount of foreign direct investment(FDI). In the first three quarters of this year, the value of actually utilized FDI totaled US$ 47.2 billion,an increase of 10.87 percent compared with the same period last year.     

对国家外汇储备安全的思考

要保证国家外汇储备的安全,必须避免出现国际收支赤字及所持有的外汇储备贬值。为此,必须提高产业竞争力,通过调整外汇储备币种、增加外汇资产等方法用活外汇储备,提高其抗风险能力。     

中国超额外汇储备的社会成本

依据持有1美元储备资产的社会成本等于私人部门从国外借入短期债务的成本和中央银行从其流动性资产中所获得的收益之间的差额的方法,采用EMBI利差数据计算了中国持有超额外汇储备的社会成本,约为GDP的1.5%。本文认为增加流动性的最优战略是增加储备与减少短期外债并用。     

Tail systemic risk and contagion: Evidence from the Brazilian and Latin America banking network

In this study the tail systemic risk of the Brazilian banking system is examined, using the conditional quantile as the risk measure. Multivariate conditional dependence between Brazilian banks is modelled with a vine copula hierarchical structure. The results demonstrate that Brazilian financial systemic risk increased drastically during the global financial crisis period. Our empirical findings show that Bradesco and Itaú are the origin of the larger systemic shocks from the banking system to the financial system network, the real economy, and the region. The results have implications for the capital regulation of financial institutions and for risk managers' decisions.     

Globalisation and Poverty in Latin America: Some Channels and Some Evidence

This paper provides an overview of the main mechanisms through which globalisation can affect poverty and household welfare in Latin America and presents supporting evidence from different case studies in the region. One case study explores the impacts of agricultural trade liberalisation in world markets on poverty in Argentina, with an emphasis on labour income effects via real wages. The second case study examines the impacts of CAFTA on net producers and net consumers among the indigenous population in Guatemala. The analysis explores short‐run impacts as well as medium‐run impacts as households adjust farm decisions. Finally, a last exercise is set up to study the role of agricultural liberalisation on wages, employment and unemployment when there are frictions in labour markets. These case studies show that the impacts of trade on developing countries are heterogeneous. In Argentina, there are gains from liberalisation of world agriculture and higher food prices. In Guatemala, instead, the indigenous population would benefit from lower food prices. It is clear that household adjustments and complementary factors are fundamental ingredients of any reasonable evaluation of the welfare impacts of trade reforms.     

我国外汇储备投资的战略性目标及其实施

国家外汇投资公司的筹备成立标志着我国外汇储备管理模式的根本变化,文章认为外汇储备投资除满足收益性和缓解国内流动性过剩的使命外,应重点保障我国资源需求的战略目标;资源战略储备的形式除实物储备外,还可以直接购买或参股资源矿藏、购买资源类企业的股票以及通过国际期货市场进行运作.