Global Imbalances and the Financial Crisis: Reassessing the Role of International Finance

Global current account imbalances have recently been singled out by many as a key factor contributing to the global financial crisis. Current account surpluses in several emerging market economies are said to have put significant downward pressure on world interest rates, thereby fueling a credit boom and risk taking in major advanced economies with current account deficits (the “excess saving” view). We argue that this perspective on global imbalances bears reconsideration. We highlight two conceptual problems: (i) explaining market interest rates through the saving-investment framework; and (ii) drawing inferences about a country's cross-border financing activity based on observations of net capital flows. We trace the shortcomings of this perspective to a failure to consider the distinguishing characteristics of a monetary (credit) economy. We conjecture that the main macroeconomic cause of the financial crisis was not “excess saving” but the “excess elasticity” of the international monetary and financial system.     

Trade prices and supply in the UK economy

Current account imbalances are a major source of instability in the world monetary and trading system. Measures to correct these imbalances have largely involved adjustments to exchange rates. In the international trade literature, when the current account is in deficit, the Marshall-Lerner condition is sufficient for a successful devaluation. However, this partial equilibrium condition — apart from being based on the assumption that supply elasticities are infinite — abstracts from how the domestic economy responds to the change in relative prices. In this paper we develop a model of price and output determination in an open economy with imperpectly competitive markets, and draw a distinction between goods which are exported and those which are supplied to the domestic market. This means that we have to determine jointly both export prices and the domestic price of house sales. We show that as long as there is no money illusion in the labour market a fall in the nominal exchange rate raises domestic and export prices proportionally and leaves trade volumes unaffected. However, shifts in domestic absorption relative to overseas demand — by changing relative prices — cause shifts in the relative supply of exports and domestically sold goods and affect the trade balance. Thus fiscal and monetary measures directed towards reducing domestic absorption are more likely to be successful in correcting current account imbalances than exchange rate depreciation.     

The Current Account, Fiscal Policy, and Medium-Run Income Determination

This article presents a new framework for analyzing the simultaneous determination of current account imbalances and the path of national income. Using standard macroeconomic behavioral relationships, it first examines how and why current account deficits matter by investigating links between domestic consumption, government spending, output, saving, investment, interest rates, and capital flows. Central to the model is the distinction between aggregate output and expenditure that enables dissection of the effects of discretionary fiscal change on the current account and national income. The framework yields results relevant to the twin deficits hypothesis that are contrary to those of standard models. (JEL E10 , F32 )     

Rebalancing the Euro Area: The Costs of Internal Devaluation

This paper investigates the economic costs of rebalancing current account positions in the Euro area by means of internal devaluation. Internal devaluation relies on wage suppression in the deficit countries. Based on an old Keynesian model we estimate a current account equation, a wage-Phillips curve and an Okun's Law equation. All estimations are carried out for a panel of twelve Euro area members. From the estimation results we calculate the output costs of reducing current account deficits. Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain (GIIPS) had, on average, current account deficits of 8.4% of GDP in 2007. To eliminate these current account deficits, a reduction of GPD by some 47% would be necessary. Trade imbalances can be resolved in two ways: deflationary adjustment in the deficit countries or inflationary adjustment in the surplus countries. The economic costs of deflationary adjustment to those countries are equivalent to the output loss of the Great Depression. An adjustment of the surplus countries would increase growth and it would come with higher inflation, but it would allow rebalancing without a Great Depression in parts of Europe.     

Alternative paths to structural adjustment in a three-gap model: the case of Uzbekistan

This study presents an internally consistent macroeconomic framework that could be used as a first step toward a more comprehensive quantitative and qualitative assessment of the adjustment alternatives facing Uzbekistan. The three-gap frame work focuses on the major imbalances of the economy for evaluating policy choices facing Uzbekistan. It lays emphasis on both domestic and external factors that determine economic outcomes and welfare. An attempt is made to quantify two policy scenarios (gradual as against an accelerated policy implementation strategy). It turns out that an aggressive adjustment policy would indeed improve most perform ance and welfare indicators. Two major ingredients of such an aggressive adjustment strategy are the unification of the exchange rate and implementation of current account convertibility in the balance of payments. The study also draws attention to the relative importance of external financing and the sustainability of the balance of payments under alternative structural adjustment paths facing Uzbek istan.     

Macroeconomic Policy Making,Exchange Rate Adjustment and Current Account Imbalances in Emerging Markets

Given a series of crisis events after 2007 the discussion about the adjustment channels of current account imbalances has been revived. We examine the role of exchange rates vs macroeconomic policies as determinants of current accounts for a set of 86 mainly emerging market economies between 1990 and 2013 to identify adjustment channels for global imbalances. We find that nominal exchange rates are not the main determinant of current account positions. Instead, depending on the region, monetary and/or fiscal policies are identified as the main driving force of current accounts. For East Asia and the oil exporting countries sterilization policies, i.e. relatively tight monetary policies, are the main determinants. In contrast for many European periphery countries fiscal policy stances are at the core of current account positions. Only for the Latin American countries does the exchange rate play a significant role as determinant of current account positions.     

Reserves,Sovereign Wealth Funds and the Resilience of Global Imbalances

Reserves and sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) assets should be jointly considered for the assessment of global imbalances, hence their denomination as sovereign external assets (SEAs): both are public capital outflows from developing to developed countries, both hinder adjustment in current account surplus and deficit countries and, therefore, both contribute to sustain global imbalances. They represented 135 per cent and 50 per cent of net and gross US financing needs, respectively, in 2007. Reserves contribute 80 per cent and SWFs 20 per cent. They will go on providing resilience to the global imbalances, and the relative importance of SWFs is set to increase if commodity prices stay high.     

The Policy Implications of Economic ImbalancesScottish Economic Society Royal Bank of Scotland Annaual Lecture, 2001

In this paper, I argue against the view that widening economic imbalances necessarily imply that the conjuncture is deteriorating, and more specifically against concluding that the UK imbalances, at the end of 2001, were clearly unsustainable. The term imbalance is in any case too widely used, and it is important to distinguish between stocks and flows, and therefore between an unsustainable level of debt and an unsustainable growth of debt. Policy–makers should be very reluctant about seeking to correct imbalances, as there is little certainty over what the 'right' level of debt, or current account, is at any particular time.     

Exchange Rate Flexibility and Current Account Adjustment: A Threshold VAR Analysis

Global imbalances (current account imbalances) have become an important issue for economists and policy makers. Greater exchange rate flexibility is often suggested as a means to achieve faster and more efficient adjustment in the current account. However, previous empirical studies show little support for this hypothesis. This paper revisits this issue with a large panel dataset and a threshold VAR model and finds that (1) some existing popular exchange rate classifications may not capture actual exchange rate variability as well as expected; (2) Once exchange rate variability is correctly identified, the speed of mean reversion in the current account balance is indeed higher in a regime with greater exchange rate variability.     

Modelling economic growth with internal and external imbalances: Empirical evidence from Portugal

Thirlwall's Law considers that growth can be constrained by the balance-of-payments when the current account is in permanent deficit. The Law focuses on external imbalances as impediments to growth and does not consider the case where internal imbalances (budget deficits or public debt) can also constrain growth. The recent European public debt crisis shows that when internal imbalances are out of control they can constrain growth and domestic demand in a severe way. The aim of this paper is to fill this gap by developing a growth model in line with Thirlwall's Law that takes into account both internal and external imbalances. The model is tested for Portugal which recently fell into a public debt crisis with serious negative consequences on growth. The empirical analysis shows that the growth rate in Portugal is in fact balance-of-payments constrained and the main drawback is the high import elasticity of the components of demand and in particular that of exports.     

Macroeconomic Effects of Capital Account Liberalization: the Case of Korea

The macroeconomic effects of capital account liberalization in Korea are examined. Simple data analysis suggests that capital account liberalization substantially changed the nature and composition of capital flows. Based on the VAR model, the authors find the following stylized facts. First, after capital market liberalization, capital flows become less driven by current account imbalances and therefore become more autonomous. Second, capital account liberalization significantly changes the effects of capital flows on macroeconomic variables. Third, capital account liberalization is highly related to consumption and investment booms, and subsequent appreciation of nominal and real exchange rates, which leads to the current account worsening. Finally, there is strong evidence of sterilized foreign exchange market intervention in response to capital inflows.     

Explaining Italy's economic growth: A balance-of-payments approach with internal and external imbalances and non-neutral relative prices

Thirlwall's Law (Thirlwall, 1979) considers that growth can be constrained by the balance-of-payments when the current account is in permanent deficit. The law focuses on external imbalances as impediments to growth and does not consider the case where internal imbalances emerging from budget deficits or public debt can also constrain growth. The recent European public debt crisis of peripheral countries (including Italy) shows that when internal imbalances are out of control they can constrain growth and domestic demand in a severe way. Recently, Soukiazis et al. (2013) developed a model – henceforth the SCA model – that takes into account both internal and external imbalances and where relative prices are not neutral in the pace of economic growth. The SCA model proved to be accurate in explaining economic growth in Portugal. The aim of the present paper is to apply the SCA model to Italy and check its precision for explaining the growth path in this country. Italy is an interesting case study of a larger economy with a lack of growth in the last decade facing serious internal imbalances caused by high deficit and public debt. Our empirical analysis shows that Italy grew at a slower rate than its potential capacity due to supply constraints. Policies designed at increasing external competitiveness and lowering the costs of financing the economy are shown to be effective strategies to achieve higher growth.     

The dynamics of municipal fiscal adjustment

The dynamic fiscal policy adjustment of local jurisdictions is investigated empirically using a panel of more than 1000 U.S. municipalities over a quarter of a century. Distinguishing own-source revenue, grants, expenditures, and debt service, the analysis is carried out using a vector error-correction model which takes account of the intertemporal budget constraint. The results indicate that a large part of the adjustment in response to fiscal imbalances takes place by offsetting changes in future expenditures. In addition, the results show that fiscal imbalances are financed to a significant extent by subsequent changes in grants. Decomposition of the sample according to average city population reveals that the basic pattern of fiscal adjustment is robust, although intergovernmental grants play a much more pronounced role in maintaining budget balance for large cities.     

Asset prices, exchange rates and the current account

This paper analyses the role of asset prices in comparison to other factors, in particular exchange rates, as a driver of the US trade balance. It employs a Bayesian structural VAR model that requires imposing only a minimum of economically meaningful sign restrictions. We find that equity market shocks and housing price shocks have been major determinants of the US current account in the past, accounting for up to 30% of the movements of the US trade balance at a horizon of 20 quarters. By contrast, shocks to the real exchange rate have been less relevant, explaining about 9% and exerting a more temporary effect on the US trade balance. Our findings suggest that large exchange rate movements may not necessarily be the key element of an adjustment of today's large current account imbalances, and that in particular relative global asset price changes could be a potent source of adjustment.     

Long-run determinants of current accounts in OECD countries: Lessons for intra-European imbalances

In this paper we study the long-run determinants of current account balances in 21 OECD countries. We define long-run targets to determine whether actual current account balances are in line with their equilibrium values and find that, following the crisis, the United States, Japan and Spain returned towards their targets but that much remains to be done in Austria, Greece and Germany. Using linear and asymmetric panel VECM models, we find that the speed of convergence of external imbalances is much faster in deficit countries than in surplus ones. These results suggest that the adjustment of intra-European imbalances has to take place in both surplus and deficit countries and should be particularly substantial in the former. This revived the old debate of how to get the surplus countries to adjust.     

On the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Constraints to the Real Side of the Economy

Contrary to the predictions of the theory underlying international finance, inflows of capital triggered by financial liberalisation have neither equalised real interest rates nor increased income growth in many emerging economies. We explain this puzzle by developing a model that combines the balance‐of‐payments constraint approach to economic growth with a less stringent version of the real interest rate parity hypothesis. The model’s foundations are based on robust empirical findings or well‐established macroeconomic models. We show that a perverse combination of income elasticities of demand for imports and exports generates slow income growth and high real interest rates. As domestic income grows and imports rise faster than exports, the real exchange rate is expected to depreciate in order to clear the balance of payments (or the foreign exchange rate market). An incipient capital outflow arises and interest rates increase. Faster adjustment in capital rather than in the goods market therefore generates a higher real interest rate differential between the domestic small open‐economy and the rest of the world. The long run analysis shows that a constant degree of risk aversion implies a positive equilibrium real interest rate differential that affects economic growth. A permanent increase in default risk driven by persistent current account imbalances thus impacts on long run growth. The model’s results are illustrated with evidence from the three major Latin America economies: Argentina, Brazil and Mexico.     

Structural and Cyclical Factors behind Current Account Balances

Global external imbalances widened persistently over the last several years and have narrowed abruptly over the course of the financial crisis. Understanding the extent to which structural or cyclical factors may have driven these patterns is important to assess the likely evolution of global imbalances going forward, as well as the potential adjustment that can be achieved through changes in policy. This paper assesses the link between structural and cyclical factors and current account balances using a panel of 94 countries from 1973 to 2008. We find that the medium‐term evolution of global external imbalances can be related in large part to structural factors including cross‐country differences in demographics, fiscal deficits, oil dependency and intensity, stage of economic development, financial market development, and institutional quality. Part of the narrowing in current account balances since the financial crisis appears to be related to various cyclical factors including changes in output growth, oil prices, and exchange rates, and may be expected to reverse alongside the economic recovery.     

Internal and external balance in a centrally planned economy

This paper presents a model of an open centrally planned economy. In a framework that allows disequilibrium and (informal) quantity rationing, we seek to represent both the effects of domestic macroeconomic processes on trade flows and the effects on domestic macro variables of foreign-sector phenomena. We investigate the adjustment of the system to exogenous shocks and the policy trade-offs facing the planners, using a diagrammatic apparatus analogous to the Swan and Mundell diagrams for an open developed market economy. The model is also intended to serve as a basis for specification of empirical models of the macroeconomic aspects of foreign trade in centrally planned economies.     

An Absorption Approach to Modeling the US Current Account

This paper derives and estimates a current account model based on the absorption approach (which views the current account balance as the difference between domestic saving and investment). This approach provides a framework which allows drivers of cross‐border financial flows and other determinants of saving and investment to be included in a current account model, an advantage not offered by the elasticity approach (which views the current account balance as the sum of net exports, net investment income, and net unilateral transfer). We estimate and compare vector error‐correction models of the absorption and elasticity approaches, with the absorption model nesting the elasticity model. We find that (1) the restrictions imposed by the elasticity model are rejected; and (2) the mean‐squared prediction errors of the absorption model are significantly smaller than those of the elasticity model.     

Current Account Imbalances and Real Exchange Rates in the Euro Area*

Global current account imbalances have been one of the focal points of interest for policymakers during the last few years. Less attention has been paid, however, to the diverging current account balances of the individual euro area countries. In this paper we consider the dynamics of current account adjustment and the role of real exchange rates in current account determination in the EMU countries. After controlling for the effects of income growth, we find the relationship between real exchange rates and current accounts to be substantial in size and subject to nonlinear effects. We find that real exchange rates can offer further insights, beyond the effects of the income catch‐up process, relevant to current account determination in the EMU.