IMMIGRATION POLICY, CULTURAL PLURALISM AND TRADE: EVIDENCE FROM THE WHITE AUSTRALIA POLICY

Abstract.   Examining data for Australia and 101 trading partners that span the years 1989–2000, we find immigrants from nations afforded preference under the White Australia policy exert greater proportional influences on Australian imports from their home countries compared to immigrants from nations not privy to such preference. Immigrants from this latter group of countries influence Australian exports to their home countries proportionally more than do immigrants from the former group. We also find immigrant-trade links vary across disaggregated measures of trade. The results suggest that cultural diversity, affected here by immigration policy, is relevant to a nation's trade patterns.     

REVISITING THE REAL WAGES–UNEMPLOYMENT RELATIONSHIP. NEW RESULTS FROM NON-LINEAR MODELS

We examine the long-run real wages–unemployment relationship for five OECD countries over the period 1960:1–2001:4. Given the theoretical possibility of non-linear equilibrium due to downward real wage rigidity we employ econometric tests that allow for the presence of non-linearities in the long-run equilibrium. We adopt the notion of 'hidden co-integration' suggested by Granger and Yoon . This methodology has several advantages with respect to other non-linear models. We find statistical evidence that, in general, there is a long-run positive relation between real wages and unemployment only when both are affected by positive shocks. We also find a negative relationship between unemployment and productivity. The empirical analysis is complemented with the estimation of error correction models for all countries.     

THE IMPACT OF BESTSELLER RANK ON DEMAND: EVIDENCE FROM THE APP MARKET*

This article uses daily data on the ranking by sales of the top 100 apps sold through Apple’s App Store to provide evidence of the causal impact of today’s bestseller rank information on tomorrow’s demand. The estimates indicate that the willingness to pay of consumers is about $4.50 greater for a top ranked app than for the same unranked app. The results also indicate that the effects of bestseller status on willingness to pay decline steeply with rank at the top ranks, but remain economically significant for the apps in the first half of the top 100 list.     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN OUTPUT VARIABILITY AND GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM POST WAR UK DATA

The paper investigates the relationship between output variability and economic growth using a GARCH-M model with industrial production in post-war Great Britain. The data reveals a positive relationship between variability and growth rates.     

FISCAL EXPANSIONS,UNEMPLOYMENT, AND LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION: THEORY AND EVIDENCE*

Structural VARs indicate that for many OECD countries labor force participation, employment, and the unemployment rate significantly increase following increases in government expenditures under a variety of specifications and identification schemes. Fiscal expansions also tend to increase real wages. Existing models have difficulties in generating such responses. We show that the empirical regularities can be reproduced with two additions into a standard New Keynesian model with matching frictions: (a) a labor force participation choice and (b) workers’ heterogeneity.     

EARTHQUAKE RISKS AND LAND PRICES: EVIDENCE FROM THE TOKYO METROPOLITAN AREA*

The current paper empirically addresses risk aversion of households and firms toward earthquake risks using a hazard map compiled for the entire region by the Tokyo metropolitan government in 1998. It finds strong evidence for the impact of earthquake risks on land pricing; land prices have been substantially lower in risky areas than in safe areas. That impact became more evident in the 1990s than in the 1980s, indicating that households and firms were becoming more sensitive to earthquake risks. In addition, this paper carefully examines the consistency of the estimated magnitude of earthquake risk premiums within a framework of the expected utility hypothesis.     

CROSS-NATIONAL DIFFERENCES IN INCOME MOBILITY: EVIDENCE FROM CANADA, THE UNITED STATES, GREAT BRITAIN AND GERMANY

Using a standardized dataset, this paper compares the differences in income mobility among four countries—Canada, the United States, Great Britain and Germany—during the 1990s and early 2000s. The results suggest that, in general, there exist diverse levels of income mobility across the four countries. Although the precise magnitudes of the differences are sensitive to the measurement method used, incomes in Britain are by far the most mobile. Our findings also reveal country-specific driving forces that underlie income mobility. The stabilizing effects of government transfers are most pronounced in Canada. In Germany, it is the progressive tax system that offsets earnings variations and results in smaller changes in longitudinal incomes. Moreover, we also discover that demographic factors provided only limited explanation of differences in income mobility.     

GENDER DIFFERENCES IN NATIVE PREFERENCES TOWARD UNDOCUMENTED AND LEGAL IMMIGRATION: EVIDENCE FROM SAN DIEGO

The literature has noted that native views about legal as opposed to undocumented immigration in the United States differ. Furthermore, native views about immigration are known to vary by gender. Yet, most surveys do not inquire native men and women about their views with regards to the two distinct immigrant groups, thus impeding an analysis of differences in preferences toward legal and undocumented immigrants from the same sample of natives. Using a recent San Diego County survey, we examine differences in native male and female opinions with regard to legal and undocumented immigration and their determinants. Native preferences toward immigration appear to significantly differ by gender as well as according to immigrants' legal status. In addition, public finance and welfare concerns are among the key factors driving native male and female preferences toward legal and undocumented immigration. However, native women's attitudes are also impacted by concerns regarding the social integration and economic assimilation of undocumented immigrants possibly related to the alleged prejudice factor. (JEL J61, F22)     

CANDIDATE VALENCE: EVIDENCE FROM CONSECUTIVE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS*

This article develops and estimates a dynamic spatial model of voting. The distribution of voters' policy positions and candidates' valence are recovered using individual‐level data on voting decisions in two consecutive presidential elections. The estimated model is used to provide an equilibrium interpretation of observed individual voting profiles and aggregate electoral outcomes as well as to conduct counterfactual experiments that assess the impact of candidates' policy positions, valence, and voters' information on electoral outcomes.     

TIME‐INCONSISTENCY AND WELFARE PROGRAM PARTICIPATION: EVIDENCE FROM THE NLSY*

We empirically implement a dynamic structural model of labor supply and welfare program participation for agents with potentially time‐inconsistent preferences. Using panel data on the choices of single women with children from the National Longitudinal Surveys (NLSY) 1979, we provide estimates of the degree of time‐inconsistency, and of its influence on the welfare take‐up decision. With these estimates, we conduct counterfactual experiments to quantify a measure of the utility loss stemming from the inability to commit to future decisions, and the potential gains from commitment mechanisms such as welfare time limits and work requirements.     

ON THE RELEVANCE AND COMPOSITION OF GIFTS WITHIN THE FIRM: EVIDENCE FROM FIELD EXPERIMENTS*

We investigate the economic relevance and the composition of gifts within a firm where output is contractible. We develop a structural behavioral model that identifies workers’ optimal reaction to monetary gifts received from their employer. We estimate the model using data from two separate field experiments conducted within a tree‐planting firm. We use the estimated structural parameters to generalize beyond the experiment, simulating how workers would react to different gifts on the part of the firm, within different labor market settings. We find that gifts have a role to play within this firm, increasing in importance when the workers’ outside alternatives deteriorate. Profit‐maximizing gifts would increase profits within slack labor markets by up to 10% on average and by up to 17% for certain types of workers.     

HYSTERESIS IN UNEMPLOYMENT REVISITED: EVIDENCE FROM PANEL LM UNIT ROOT TESTS WITH HETEROGENEOUS STRUCTURAL BREAKS

This paper applies the panel LM unit root tests with heterogeneous structural breaks in level by Im  et al. ( Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics , 67 (2005), pp. 393–419) to re-examine the validity of hysteresis in the unemployment rates of 19 OECD countries. Our empirical findings are favourable to the stationarity of the unemployment rates, i.e., the unemployment hysteresis hypothesis is strongly rejected. Our results suggest that shocks to unemployment rates are temporary and soon converge when we control for breaks. A major policy implication of the study is that a fiscal or monetary stabilization policy would not have permanent effects on the unemployment rates of the 19 OECD countries.     

INFLATION UNCERTAINTY AND GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM PANEL DATA*

This paper explores empirically the link between inflation uncertainty and economic growth through a panel data analysis with a data set from OECD economies that covers the period from 1969 to 1999 and the GARCH methodology. The main results point out that inflation uncertainty has an adverse impact on economic growth in the majority of the cases under investigation     

OPTIMAL IMMIGRATION POLICY: WHEN THE PUBLIC GOOD IS RIVAL*

In this model, we characterize optimal immigration and fiscal policies in the presence of a rival public good and heterogeneous discounting. Surprisingly, even if the government is benevolent towards natives only, it is optimal to keep borders open. Indeed, in the long run, patient natives hold the whole stock of capital, while impatient immigrants work. Moreover, since capital intensity is stationary, capital per native, consumption and the public good increase with the number of (immigrant) workers. This positive effect offsets the disutility deriving from the congestion of the public good. However, when we account for the costs associated with cultural heterogeneity, we find that it is optimal to regulate immigration inflows. We also analyze the long‐run sensitivity of the optimal policy mix with respect to the fundamentals.