Institutions and Wage Determination: a Multi‐country Approach*

We present an empirical analysis of the determinants of labour cost in OECD countries, with particular reference to the impact of labour market institutions from 1960 to 1994. We show that labour market regulations can explain a large part of the labour cost rise in OECD countries in the last few decades once we control for productivity. These results are consistent with the findings of a companion paper [ Nickell, Nunziata and Ochel (2005) Economic Journal, Vol. 115, pp. 1–27] where the effects of institutions on unemployment are examined. We present also a discussion of the econometric issues related to the estimation of a macro pooled model like ours. We focus, among other things, on the hypothesis of poolability and on the cointegration properties of the model. The explanatory power of the model is finally tested by means of a series of country by country dynamic simulations.     

The Relationship between Unemployment Benefits and Re‐employment Probabilities: Evidence from Spain*

We provide the first Spanish evidence about the effects on re‐employment probabilities of variations in benefit levels and time‐to‐exhaustion. Increases in unemployment insurance (UI) benefit levels had a small disincentive effect on the re‐employment hazard on average. Around this average, there were larger disincentive effects for men with elapsed durations between 4 and 18 months, whereas for men unemployed longer than 18 months, or for men resident in the south, the effect was negligible. Re‐employment hazards increased when UI exhaustion was imminent, but the change was small. Extensions to unemployment assistance eligibility in 1989 for men aged 45+ years lowered re‐employment probabilities.     

Efficiency Wages and the Economic Effects of the Minimum Wage: Evidence from a Low‐Wage Labour Market*

This article exploits a natural experiment provided by the 1999 introduction of the UK National Minimum Wage (NMW) to test for efficiency wage considerations in a low‐wage sector, the UK residential care homes industry. The empirical results provide support to the wage‐supervision trade‐off prediction of the shirking model and suggest that the NMW may have operated as an efficiency wage in the care homes sector, leading to a reduction in supervision costs. These findings can explain earlier evidence suggesting that although the NMW introduction increased wages dramatically in the care homes sector, it generated only moderate negative employment effects.     

Testing for Hysteresis in Unemployment in OECD Countries: New Evidence using Stationarity Panel Tests with Breaks*

This paper tests hysteresis effects in unemployment using panel data for 19 Organization for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD) countries covering the period 1956–2001. The tests exploit the cross‐sectional variations of the series, and additionally, allow for a different number of endogenous breakpoints in the unemployment series. The critical values are simulated based on our specific panel sizes and time periods. The findings stress the importance of accounting for exogenous shocks in the series and support the natural‐rate hypothesis of unemployment for the majority of the countries analysed.     

Non‐Classical Measurement Error in Long‐Term Retrospective Recall Surveys*

Applied microeconomic researchers are beginning to use long‐term retrospective survey data in settings where conventional longitudinal survey data are unavailable. However, inaccurate long‐term recall could induce non‐classical measurement error, for which conventional statistical corrections are less effective. In this article, we use the unique Panel Study of Income Dynamics Validation Study to assess the accuracy of long‐term retrospective recall data. We find underreporting of transitory variation which creates a non‐classical measurement error problem.     

Performance Pay,Union Bargaining and Within‐Firm Wage Inequality*

Theory predicts that performance pay boosts wage dispersion. Workers retain a share of individual productivity shocks and high‐efficiency workers receive compensation for greater effort. Collective bargaining can mitigate the effect of performance pay on wage inequality by easing monitoring of common effort standards and group‐based pay schemes. Analyses of longitudinal employer–employee data show that the introduction of performance‐related pay raises wage inequality in non‐union firms, but not in firms with high union density. Although performance‐related pay appears to be on the rise, the overall impact on wage dispersion is likely to be small, particularly in European countries with influential unions.     

Explaining cross-racial differences in teenage labor force participation: Results from a two-sided matching model

White teenagers are substantially more likely to search for employment than black teenagers. This differential occurs despite the fact that, conditional on race, individuals from disadvantaged backgrounds are more likely to search. While the racial wage gap is small, the unemployment rate for black teenagers is substantially higher than that of white teenagers. We develop a two-sided search model where firms are partially able to search on demographics. Model estimates reveal that firms are more able to target their search on race than on age. Employment and wage outcome differences explain half of the racial gap in labor force participation rates.     

Supply,Factor Shares and Inflation Persistence: Re‐examining Euro‐area New‐Keynesian Phillips Curves*

Using euro‐area data, we re‐examine the empirical success of New‐Keynesian Phillips curves (NKPCs). We re‐estimate with a suitably specified optimizing supply side (which attempts to treat non‐stationarity in factor income shares and mark‐ups) that allows us to derive estimates of technology parameters, marginal costs and ‘price gaps’. Our resulting estimates of the euro‐area NKPCs are robust, provide reasonable estimates for fixed‐price durations and discount rates and embody plausible dynamic properties. Our method for identifying the underlying determinants of NKPCs has general applicability to a wide set of countries as well as of use for sectoral studies.     

Inter‐industry Wage Differences and Individual Heterogeneity*

Two well‐established findings are apparent in the analyses of individual wage determination: cross‐section wage equations can account for less than half of the variance in earnings and there are large and persistent inter‐industry wage differentials. We explore these two empirical regularities using longitudinal data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS). We show that around 90% of the variation in earnings can be explained by observed and unobserved individual characteristics. However, small – but statistically significant – industry wage premia do remain, and there is also a role for a rich set of job and workplace controls.     

Employment,Inequality and the UK National Minimum Wage over the Medium‐Term*

We assess the impact of the national minimum wage (NMW) on employment and inequality in the UK over the decade since its introduction. We evaluate its effects in each year, using an incremental differences‐in‐differences (IDiD) estimator. Identification is based on variation in the bite of the NMW across local labour markets and the different sized year on year up‐ratings. We find that an increased bite of the NMW is associated with falls in lower tail wage inequality. While the average employment effect over the entire period is broadly neutral, there are small but significant positive NMW effects from 2003 onwards.     

Labour Demand,Flexible Contracts and Financial Factors: Firm‐Level Evidence from Spain*

We estimate models of labour demand for a panel of 3,400 Spanish manufacturing firms over the period 1985–2001. We examine the roles of fixed‐term contracts, financial factors and a policy reform in 1997 affecting permanent contracts by lowering payroll taxes and dismissal costs. Compared with permanent employment, the demand for flexible labour displays: (i) greater sensitivity to financial factors; (ii) greater cyclical sensitivity; (iii) a larger average wage elasticity; and (iv) less inertia. Our analysis of the 1997 policy reform suggests that a 5 percentage point reduction in the payroll tax is associated with an 8% increase in permanent labour demand.     

Earnings Distribution and Labour Supply after a Retirement Earnings Test Reform*

Norwegian administrative data are used to evaluate the impact of a doubling of the threshold in the retirement earnings test. We find almost no impact on the extensive margin, but a positive effect on the intensive margin. This positive effect is uneven over the earnings distribution, and concentrated on workers around the threshold, increasing with exposure to the reform and leading to a decrease in earnings inequality. Individuals who remain active until retirement age respond more to the reform. Conditional on prereform earnings, we find little evidence that individual characteristics such as working histories influence the responsiveness to the reform.     

Further Analysis of the Returns to Academic and Vocational Qualifications*

This paper uses data from the Labour Force Survey over the period 1996–2002 to investigate the returns to a detailed list of academic and vocational qualifications. In particular, the analysis focuses on how these returns have varied over the time period considered, how the returns vary over an individual's lifetime using a pseudo cohort analysis, and how the returns vary according to the highest level of qualification obtained at school.     

Occupational Labour Demand and the Sources of Non‐neutral Technical Change*

This article introduces a two‐step empirical approach for examining both the nature and sources of non‐neutral technical change across multiple occupations. First, conventional labour‐demand parameter estimates and unbiased tests for neutrality are obtained in the context of a flexible cost system. The resulting input‐specific indices of technical change, unconstrained with respect to time path, facilitate subsequent evaluation of proposed sources. In our application to employment decisions of airline firms, we find labour‐saving technical change that is non‐neutral across occupations. We also document occupation‐specific responses to aircraft technology adoption, route system developments and an unprecedented range of technical change elements.

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Impacts of Prime‐age Adult Mortality on Labour Supply: Evidence from Adolescents and Women in South Africa*

This paper examines the impact of prime‐age adult mortality on the transition made by adolescents from school to the labour market and on female adult labour force participation decisions in South Africa. We find, first, that deaths of prime‐age adults significantly increase both male and female adolescents’ labour force participation as they stop their schooling. Secondly, the death of prime‐age adults in general also decreases school enrolment ex ante. Thirdly, female adults tend to join the labour force following the death of prime‐age adult males. These findings imply that prime‐age adult mortality increases labour supply and disrupts human capital formation.     

The Effect of Employment while in High School on Educational Attainment: A Conditional Difference‐in‐Differences Approach*

Using American panel data from the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988, this article investigates the effect of working during grade 12 on attainment. We employ, for the first time in the related literature, a semiparametric propensity score matching approach combined with difference‐in‐differences. We address selection on both observables and unobservables associated with part‐time work decisions, without the need for instrumental variable. Once such factors are controlled for, little to no effects on reading and math scores are found. Overall, our results therefore suggest a negligible academic cost from part‐time working by the end of high school.     

The Impact of a Large Parental Leave Benefit Reform on the Timing of Birth around the Day of Implementation*

The introduction of the German parental leave benefit (Elterngeld) applied to all children born on 1 January, 2007 or later. The Elterngeld considerably changed the amount of transfers to families during the first two years postpartum. We show that the incentives created by using a cut‐off date led more than 1,000 parents to postpone the delivery of their children from December 2006 to January 2007. Concerning potential adverse impacts on health outcomes of children we find a slight increase in average birth weight and the rate of children with high birth weight (>4,000 g).     

Promoting employment of disabled women in Spain; Evaluating a policy

Even though the Disability System in Spain is designed to allow partially disabled individuals to combine the receipt of the benefits with a job, their employment rates have remained very low since 1996. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the results of an employment promotion policy introduced in Spain in 2004 which increased the deductions to the Social Security contributions paid by employers that hired disabled women. We apply difference-in-difference models and estimate a recursive bivariate probit model to evaluate the existence of shifts in employment trends in the women relative to the men sample conditioning on the existence of preexisting trends. We find that the impact of the policy is significant and we estimate an average elasticity of employment of 0.14 for partially and of 0.08 for totally disabled women relative to the deductions in the employer Social Security contributions. Finally, when we extrapolate the results beyond our sample, we estimate that 7100 disabled women were able to find a job in Spain due to the policy with an associated cost of 10,997.900 euro for the government.     

The Impact of Short‐ and Long‐run Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Investment: A Panel Study of Industrial Countries*

We examine the relationship between aggregate investment and exchange rate uncertainty in the G7, using panel estimation and decomposition of volatility derived from the components generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic (GARCH) model. Our dynamic panel approach takes account of potential cross‐sectional heterogeneity, which can lead to bias in estimation. We find that for a poolable subsample of European countries, it is the transitory and not the permanent component of volatility which adversely affects investment. To the extent that short‐run uncertainty in the CGARCH model characterizes higher frequency shocks generated by volatile short‐term capital flows, these are most deleterious for investment.     

Modelling Currency Crises in Emerging Markets: A Dynamic Probit Model with Unobserved Heterogeneity and Autocorrelated Errors*

The paper investigates the causes of currency crises in emerging markets. We estimate the probability of a currency crisis by applying maximum smoothly simulated likelihood to a dynamic LDV model. This approach allows us to take explicit account of the existence of intertemporal links between crises. The results show that currency crises are influenced by real, monetary, debt and global variables. Past banking crises are significant determinants of the probability of currency crises. Moreover, countries that sharply devalued in the past are less prone to experience another currency crisis. We find evidence of unobserved heterogeneity, which may reflect differences in the countries’ institutional/historical background. Finally, the determinants of currency crises differ by type of exchange rate regime.