Growth or stagnation? Farming in England, 1200–1800

Estimates of English income in Broadberry et al.’s British economic growth, 1270–1870 are founded upon a fourfold growth of farm output, and output per farm worker, over this interval. This article shows, using four separate tests, that farm output growth must have been much more limited. The tests are, first, whether in 1300 there was enough work at harvest to employ all the labour force; second, whether the value of output per worker in agriculture was greater than the annual earnings of workers; third, whether the implied relative outputs per acre of arable versus pasture were reasonable; and fourth, whether a much shorter medieval work year was possible. An alternative index of farm output consistent with the labour supply, wages, and farm rents is derived. This shows much less growth during the period 1270–1800. Overall economic growth in England during these years must consequently have been far less than Broadberry et al. estimate.     

Women's work and wages in the sixteenth century and Sweden's position in the ‘little divergence’

We use a unique source from the Swedish royal demesnes to examine the work and relative wages of women in sixteenth-century Sweden, an economic laggard in the early modern period. The source pertains to workers hired on yearly contracts, a type more representative of historical labour markets than day labour on large construction sites, and this allows us to observe directly the food consumed by workers. We speak to the debate on the ‘little divergence’ within Europe, as women's work and gender differentials in pay is a key indicator of women's relative autonomy and seen as a cause for the economic ascendency of the North Sea region during the period. We find small gender differentials among both unskilled and skilled workers, indicating that Sweden was a part of the ‘golden age’ for women. We argue that despite superficial equality, women's economic outlooks were restrained in many other ways – including their access to higher-skilled work and jobs in the expanding parts of the economy – adding important nuance to the discussion about the relationship between women's social position and economic growth in the early modern period.     

Pieces of eight,pieces of eight: seamen's earnings and the venture economy of early modern seafaring†

Historians have generally argued that between the medieval period and the eighteenth century seafarers transformed from collaborative adventurers with a share in their vessel to the first international wage‐earning proletariat. This interpretation has drawn upon relatively limited statistical analysis of mariners’ wages, and underestimates the variety of seafarers’ remuneration and economic activities besides wages themselves. This article undertakes a more sustained analysis of seventeenth‐century wage data drawn from the papers of the English High Court of Admiralty, and uses the same evidence to examine other forms of income, both customary payments as part of shipping, and small‐scale trade. Seafarers of all ranks carried their own commodities on all shipping routes, offering an opportunity to increase their income considerably. This evidence confirms that the maritime labour market was hierarchical, and that very often seafarers were poor labourers facing economic insecurity of many kinds. However, it refines the previous interpretation by emphasizing the presence of skilled workers even among the lower levels of this labour market, and by introducing a new dimension to mariners’ economic agency: they were not simply wage‐workers, but also independent participants in a venture economy.     

On the trail of China's phantom farmers

Many studies of China's economy use standard yearbook data for China's farm labor force. These data massively overestimate the number of Chinese farm workers. Our calculations show that the number of “phantom farmers” actually working outside agriculture may easily surpass 100 million. This paper reveals the implausible implications of the standard data, uses information from cost surveys to derive new estimates of China's farm work force, and investigates the implications of the new, lower series for agricultural employment on the measurement and interpretation of recent Chinese growth.     

Child day‐labourers in agriculture: evidence from farm accounts, 1740–18501

While child labour has always been an important part of the industrial revolution story, there is little quantitative evidence about the number of child workers in the 1740–1850 period. This article estimates trends in the percentage of the agricultural day‐labouring workforce that were children. By using the wage level to identify child workers, it is possible to estimate child labour for a large sample of English farms. It is found that girls were rarely employed as day‐labourers, while boys were employed about as frequently as women. The percentage of boys in the day‐labour workforce increased until the 1820s and then declined.     

The wages and employment of female day‐labourers in English agriculture, 1740–18501

Using a new sample of farm accounts from 84 farms throughout England, this article provides measures of regional variation and changes over time in female wages and employment in agriculture. Female wages were not fixed, but changed over time and responded to high demand for female labour. The female‐male wage ratio fell between 1750 and 1850, except in the industrial north west. In 1851 approximately 19 per cent of agricultural day‐labourers were female. In the industrial north west, opportunities for factory employment reduced the supply of females to agriculture, but elsewhere the relative demand for female labour in agriculture declined.     

Labour market performance in developing countries: A survey

Malfunctioning of labour markets is often given as a principal explanation of the widespread poverty in developing countries. Open urban unemployment and disguised unemployment in agriculture are generally considered symptoms of the poor performance of the decentralized system of allocation of labour time and skills in these countries.This survey leads us to a much less pessimistic view of labour market performance per se, though obviously imperfections do exist. On the one hand, the shifts of the labour force in response to shifts in demand have been noteworthy and suggest, at an aggregate level, rather impressive performance. On the other, a closer look at open unemployment, disguised unemployment, and other possible types of labour market malfunctions suggests that they may be less serious misallocations than they appear, and that only in part can such misallocations be attributed to poor labour market functioning.Though the labour market is the immediate locus of the problem of low and stagnant incomes of workers at the bottom of the distribution, the evidence suggests no causality in this association. There is no reason to presume that poverty is a manifestation of labour market failure.     

创新农民工流动就业模式的制度研究

农民工流动就业的主要特征是：低声望职业、低技术劳动、非正规和流动就业;其局限性表现在：对国民经济稳定协调发展、农业现代化进程、农村劳动力人力资本提高、土地规模经营产生影响。解决农民工流动就业的局限性问题。必须从户籍、就业、社会保障、土地改革方面进行制度创新。     

Population dynamics and economic growth in China

This paper focuses on two major elements of China's population dynamics—the rising proportion of workers in the population and the shift of rural workers from agriculture into industry and services—in a provincial-level analysis of per capita income and productivity growth during the last three decades. We measure the ‘mechanical’ contributions of these dynamics to per capita income as revealed by growth decompositions, before assessing the determinants of per capita income and productivity growth in a series of regressions that include the growth of the working-age to total population (WAP) ratio and a measure of sectoral employment change. Our results indicate that sectoral change has made a significant positive contribution to both per capita income growth and aggregate productivity growth, stemming from its positive impact on agricultural productivity growth—as predicted by the Lewisian dual economy model. However, the negative impact of sectoral change on productivity growth in the industrial and service sectors, combined with the negative impact of growth of the WAP ratio on both per capita income and aggregate productivity growth, suggests that the benefits of China's population dynamics during the last three decades have been overstated.     

Agricultural productivity and rural incomes in England and the Yangtze Delta,c.1620–c.18201

The productivity of agriculture in England and the Yangtze Delta are compared c.1620 and c.1820 in order to gauge the performance of the most advanced part of China vis‐à‐vis its counterpart in Europe. The value of real output is compared using purchasing power parity exchange rates. Output per hectare was nine times greater in the Yangtze Delta than in England. More surprisingly, output per day worked was about 90 per cent of the English performance. This put Yangtze farmers slightly behind English and Dutch farmers c.1820, but ahead of most other farmers in Europe—an impressive achievement. There was little change in Yangtze agricultural productivity between 1620 and 1820. In 1820, the real income of a Yangtze peasant family was also about the same as that of an English agricultural labourer. All was not rosy in the Yangtze, however, for incomes there were on a downward trajectory. Agriculture income per family declined between 1620 and 1820, even though income per day worked changed little since population growth led to smaller farms and fewer days worked per year. The real earnings of women in textile production also declined, since the relative price of cotton cloth dropped—possibly also because a larger population led to greater production. The implication is that the Yangtze family, unlike the English family, had a considerably higher real income c.1620, and that period was the Delta's golden age.     

China's Surplus Agricultural Labour Force: It's Size,Transfer, Prospects for Absorption and Effects of the Double-Track Economic System*

The commune economy had two basic characteristics: one was its three-grade pyramid-type structure of organisation which integrated government administration and economic management; and the other was its “self-sufficient” and “closed-door” character. Under this system farmers had no free choice about their occupation and place of residence. With the collapse of the commune system, institutional reorganisation of China's rural economy occurred. Farmers had more choice now about their production, their occupation and place of residence based on the development of a modern commodity and market economy. In this process of institutional reorganisation, transfer of surplus agricultural labour is a key factor. The concept of the agricultural labour surplus is discussed and discussions in English of this concept and associated theory and policy are reviewed. With reform of rural economy and improvement of agricultural labour productivity, the quantity of surplus labour in rural China has increased. Greater labour absorption is required in both agricultural and non-agricultural sectors, but particularly in non-agricultural sectors. In China, several impediments to transfer of surplus agricultural labour still exist. The transfer of surplus agricultural labour in contemporary China occurs in the context of a nationwide “double-track” economic system (a market-oriented economic system harnessed to a centrally planned and controlled economic system) and a “dual economy” in which modern industries exist alongside a traditional indigenous agricultural economy. Income gains provide the main motivation for farmers to transfer to non-agricultural activities. It is the income difference between farming and non-farming activity, not whether the marginal labour productivity in farming is zero that is important. By building and developing free or open markets one provides a suitable climate for labour transfer and migration. In the absence of free or open markets, farmers have little free choice. The continuing system of household registration is a serious institutional barrier to transfer or migration by farmers. Furthermore, the system of equal farmland contracts also hinders the process of transfer or migration. This might be overcome by allowing the transfer of rights to use farmland and facilitating “part-time” transfer of agricultural labour. Withdrawal of “surplus labour” from farming can cause grain output to drop. This can occur because if “better” farmers leave agriculture, the quality of farm labourers as a whole declines and because of a rigid price system which discriminates against agricultural products. While current transfers of surplus agricultural labour in China may well have increased income inequality between rural residents and between regions, if there had been greater freedom of migration this might have resulted in less income inequality. To the extent that market reform in China has resulted in greater freedom of economic choice, it appears to have increased the level of production obtained from China's limited resources. This is not to say that the market system will result in a perfect solution even though the economic results can be expected to be much superior to the commune system adopted in the past by China.     

FOREIGN BANTU WORKERS IN SOUTH AFRICA: THEIR PRESENT POSITION IN THE ECONOMY

It is not possible to compile accurate statistics about the size, origin, distribution, earnings, remittances and similar measurable aspects of the foreign Bantu labour force in South Africa. From the foregoing discussion it will be obvious that such data are most unlikely to become available in the foreseeable future. There is, however, a growing need for reasonably reliable information concerning economic interrelationships in Southern Africa. The only way to arrive at a workable basis for informed studies of labour matters in the regional context, appears to be the one followed here. By compiling, and fully documenting, as much of the accessible and relevant data as possible into comprehensive and intrinsically consistent tables, the present article can, it is hoped, serve as a convenient starting point for further, more detailed investigations. Briefly, the principal figures derived in the foregoing may be recapitulated. The total number of foreign workers in the Republic in 1964 can be put at roughly half a million men, almost 300,000 (59 per cent.) of them in mining, about 140,000 (29 per cent.) in agriculture, and about 60,000 (12 per cent.) in other employment. In these sectors, they constitute roughly 53, 14, and under 4 per cent. respectively of all Bantu employed there. Approximately 45 per cent. of all foreign workers come from the former High Commission Territories (Basotho accounting for about 60 per cent of this group), about 30 per cent. from Moçambique, 18 per cent. from Rhodesia, Zambia and Malawi together, and the remaining 7 per cent. from South West Africa, Angola, Tanzania and other territories. The total annual earnings of foreigners can be put at R133.4 million (R82.3 million cash and R51.1 million in kind), out of which cash and goods to a total value of R23.9 million (R17.7 million cash and R6.2 million worth of goods) are estimated to be remitted to the countries of origin. About 40 per cent. of the total population of Southern Africa, more than 80 per cent. of its White inhabitants, and approximately two-thirds of the region's wage-earning opportunities for Bantu are to be found in the Republic. Apart from the remittances of migrant workers, the labour supplying countries derive substantial benefits, though of course to a varying degree, from the movement of their nationals to the Republic. These are: 1. the absorption of surplus population into the Bantu groups of the Republic; 2. the fact that at any given moment, a large number of people are living off the resources of another country instead of pressing on inadequate resources at home; 3. the financial benefits from the administrative activities of the recruiting organizations; and 4. the instruction in various subjects imparted to employees on the mines and elsewhere, and generally the knowledge and skills brought back by migrants to their home countries. (The social and economic drawbacks of the migrant labour system cannot be ignored but an evaluation of this system falls outside the scope of this study. It must be recognized that intra-regional labour movements are inextricably bound up with the economic life of Southern Africa. It can, rightly, be pointed out that the abundant supply of foreigners to mining and agriculture in the Republic tends to depress the earnings of indigenous Bantu in these sectors. It is, however, prima facie, open to serious doubt whether drastic reductions in the number of foreign workers is the best way to promote the economic well-being of the local Bantu population. From the standpoint of the labour exporting countries, it is naturally regrettable that their nationals are mostly confined to the less well paying sectors of the South African economy. On the other hand, and in view of the undeveloped state of their economies, they have every reason to welcome such employment opportunities as there may be in the Republic. The newly independent states of the region are earnestly striving to develop their potentialities. By supplying (or releasing) scarce resources, labour migration to the Republic contributes materially, and in the case of Lesotho and Botswana even decisively, towards the attainment of higher levels of living throughout the region. The Republic's neighbours would suffer most if political passion or animosity towards South Africa were to disrupt the present network of the intra-regional flow of labour.     

The Determinants of Labour Supply and Demand in Irrigated Agriculture: A Case Study of the Gezira Scheme in Sudan*

Abstract: The objective of this study was to estimate the determinants of labour supply and demand in irrigated agriculture with reference to the Gezira scheme. Two samples, one comprising the farmers and the other the agricultural workers, were randomly selected through a field survey during the 2003/2004 season. A log‐linear model of multiple regressions was fitted to the data. The results indicated that labour demand and supply depend mostly on variables related to the household characteristics and economic and non‐economic conditions.     

‘Voice’ and ‘exit’ in Japanese firms during the Second World War: Sanpo revisited*

During the Second World War, the Japanese government and private sector searched for and implemented new mechanisms for coordination and motivation. One of these was sangyo hokokukai (sanpo). The Sanpo unit was basically an organization of the employer and employees of each firm, which held meetings to moderate labour relations. As a result of government policy to promote sanpo units, around 70 per cent of the total workers in Japan were organized into sanpo units in the early 1940s. As the members of trades unions and the workers of the companies that had factory committees were only 7 per cent and 5 per cent of the total workers in 1936 respectively, sanpo was the first large‐scale mechanism for Japanese employees to have a voice. This article examines the role of sanpo, using prefecture‐level and firm‐level data, based on a framework integrating the ‘voice view’ of unionism and transaction cost economics. It was found that sanpo reduced the participation rate in labour disputes, and enhanced labour productivity at least for some of the time.     

Labour trends in agriculture: The case of the summer rainfall grain‐producing area

The impact of changes in the labour force on commercial agriculture has received little systematic research attention. In this study the major trends in the post‐war years are described and analysed. It is shown that there has been an increasing substitution of labour for capital over the past fifteen years. The causes of this substitution trend are identified, and it is shown that these should be taken into account in the formulation of farm policy. Labour trends in commercial agriculture also have implications for the broader Southern African economy, and some tentative remarks in this regard serve as motivation for further research.     

Reinterpreting the convict labour market

The convicts transported to NSW between 1817 and 1840 were young, fit, highly literate and brought occupational skills which were broadly representative of the British and Irish working classes. In the colonial labour market where convicts were coerced, more labour was forthcoming and at a lower wage than in a free labour market. The assignment of convict labour in the colony was efficient; skilled urban and construction tradesmen were employed in the same jobs in NSW as they had held in Britain. Domestic servants and unskilled urban workers whose skills were not suited to the needs of the colony experienced job restructuring. The organization of convict workers into teams and gangs in Australia was similar to the way work was organized in free labour Britain, and a mbc of incentives and rewards characterized the extraction of work from convicts. The human capital of the transportees and the labour system within which they worked help to explain the rapid growth of the colonial economy before 1840.     

Decomposing Poverty Changes in Zambia: Growth,Inequality and Population Dynamics

Abstract: During the 1990s, the Zambian economy underwent major structural adjustments. This paper presents an application of a recently proposed poverty decomposition that attributes changes in poverty to income growth, changes in inequality and population dynamics. Our results confirm earlier findings that the existence of a severe urban bias in the economy effectively shielded large parts of the rural population from the economic slump caused by the structural adjustments. In addition, we find that the exodus from urban centres that followed the adjustments contributed significantly to the increase in national poverty. The latter finding highlights the importance of considering population movements when studying poverty, especially in situations where policy changes affect migrant labour, as was the case for the Zambian copper industry.     

The historical roots of India’s service-led development: A sectoral analysis of Anglo-Indian productivity differences, 1870-2000

India fell further behind the UK in terms of GDP per capita and overall labour productivity between the 1870s and the 1970s, but has been catching-up since. This paper offers a sectoral analysis of these trends. Comparative India/UK labour productivity in agriculture has declined continuously, and agriculture still accounts for around two-thirds of employment in India. Agriculture thus played a key role in India’s falling behind and has subsequently slowed down the process of catching up. Although there have been substantial fluctuations in comparative India/UK labour productivity in industry, this sector has exhibited no long run trend. The only sector to exhibit an upward trend in comparative India/UK labour productivity is services. India’s recent emergence as a dynamic service-led economy thus appears to have long historical roots. Although India has been characterised by relatively low levels of physical and human capital formation overall, its education provision has historically been unusually skewed towards secondary and tertiary levels. This has provided a limited supply of high productivity workers who have been employed predominantly in services.     

Surplus agricultural labour and China's Lewis turning point

Official data are criticized for over-reported agricultural labour statistics. We derive an alternative series of labour participated in agriculture with the information of production cost and revenue. Using parametric stochastic frontier approach, labour requirement functions are estimated for 30 farm and animal husbandry products in rural China. The estimated required amount of labour is compared with our newly-derived observed agricultural labour to obtain the surplus labour. This surplus ranges from 18% to 12% of agricultural labour between 2001 and 2013. Our results reveal that China was relatively successful in reducing redundant labour in rice production. Equally important, the trends of our estimated surplus place China in the second stage of transition under the Lewis-Fei-Ranis framework, moving in the direction of full commercialization or the so-called Lewis turning point.     

Losing the thread: a response to Robert Allen†

In an earlier article we used archival and printed primary sources to construct the first long-run wage series for hand spinning in early modern Britain. This evidence challenged Robert Allen's claim that spinners were part of the ‘high wage economy’, which he sees as motivating invention, innovation, and mechanization in the spinning section of the textile industry. We respond to Allen's subsequent criticism of our argument, sources, and methods, and his presentation of alternative evidence. Allen contends that we have understated both the earnings and associated productivity of hand spinners by focusing on part-time and low-quality workers. His rejoinder rests on an ahistorical account of spinners’ work and similarly weak evidence on wages as did his initial claims. Our augmented version of the spinners’ wages dataset confirms our original findings. Spinners’ wages were low even compared with other women workers, and neither wages nor the piece rates that determined unit labour costs followed a trajectory that could explain the invention and spread of the spinning jenny.