中国木质林产品贸易条件分析

贸易条件可以衡量某国或地区的贸易处境。该文系统分析了1981-2001年中国木质林产品贸易条件及其变化导致的贸易损益。分析表明,与原材、刨花板、废纸、家具不同,原木、锯材、单板、胶合板、纤维板、木制品、木浆及多数纸和纸制品等木质林产品净贸易条件和收入贸易条件在多数年份是改善的,其进出口价格变化使中国贸易收益增加。木片、家具是中国的大宗出口木质林产品,尽快改善其贸易条件对提高中国木质林产品贸易收益尤为重要。     

Measuring and decomposing agricultural productivity and profitability change*

Profitability change can be decomposed into the product of a total factor productivity (TFP) index and an index measuring changes in relative prices. Many TFP indexes can be further decomposed into measures of technical change, technical efficiency change, scale efficiency change and mix efficiency change. The class of indexes that can be decomposed in this way includes the Fisher, Törnqvist and Hicks–Moorsteen TFP indexes but not the Malmquist TFP index of Caves, Christensen and Diewert (1982). This paper develops data envelopment analysis methodology for computing and decomposing the Hicks–Moorsteen index. The empirical feasibility of the methodology is demonstrated using country‐level agricultural data covering the period 1970–2001. The paper explains why relatively small countries tend to be the most productive, and why favourable movements in relative prices tend to simultaneously increase net returns and decrease productivity. Australia appears to have experienced this relative price effect since at least 1970. Thus, if Australia is a price‐taker in output and input markets, Australian agricultural policy‐makers should not be overly concerned about the estimated 15 per cent decline in agricultural productivity that has taken place over the last three decades.     

European Agriculture after Brexit: Does Anyone Benefit from the Divorce?

The UK exited the EU on 31 January 2020, with a transition period agreed as part of the Withdrawal Agreement. During this transition period the UK and the EU will decide on their future trading relationship. No matter what form this relationship takes, there will be disturbances to agri‐food markets. This study analyses four different scenarios with increasing barriers to trade, ranging from a very close relationship similar to the European Economic Area to a distant relationship in which the UK and EU trade on Most Favoured Nation terms, using the EU focused global agricultural sector model CAPRI. In the UK, food prices will increase in all scenarios, making consumers in the UK the biggest losers. Only in a free trade agreement scenario does the UK show an unambiguous positive net welfare gain in just the agri‐food sector. In the case of the European Economic Area scenario, which assumes continued access to the single market, the net welfare impact would depend on the size of the UK’s continued contribution to the EU. In the EU, declining food prices would benefit consumers but the sum of the loss in farmers’ incomes and the UK’s EU CAP contribution would be much greater than the consumer’s gain. These impacts in agricultural markets under different future trade arrangements will also be influenced by the UK’s agricultural policy changes in direct payments as well as by possible further UK trade liberalisation after the end of the transition period.     

Quarterly Dynamic Relationships Between the U.S. Wheat Market and Wheat-Related Prices for Products Downstream

Abstract

A quarterly VA R econometric model of the reduced form relationships between the U.S. wheat market and prices of processed wheat-related flour, bread, and other bakery products downstream was estimated. The model then simulated under a rise in production- or import-induced increase in wheat quantity, and a decline in wheat price, to examine the dynamic effects on the U.S. wheat market and on processed wheat-related prices downstream. U.S. trade negotiators at the upcoming WTO agricultural round, Federal policy makers, farmers, and agribusiness agents should be interested in the dynamic patterns with which negotiated trade conditions, farm policy alterations, and climatic variation influence wheat quantity and price, and in turn the price of more highly processed wheat-based products downstream.     

人民币汇率变动对我国水产品贸易的影响

水产品外贸在我国外贸、特别是在农产品外贸中占有重要的地位。本文在论述了人民币升值对水产品贸易影响的一般原理和过程的基础上，讨论了人民币汇率变动对水产品贸易所产生的其他效应，包括：对于加工贸易和当进出口商品需求弹性之和小于1时，人民币升值会促进出口；人民币升值有利于改善我国水产品的贸易条件，使社会福利增加；人民币升值会使我国水产品贸易规模增大。最后本文给出了结论与建议。     

新丝绸之路背景下中国对哈萨克斯坦出口农产品结构优化研究

文章利用显性比较优势对比指数、贸易互补性指数及要素禀赋相关理论对中国出口哈萨克斯坦农产品结构进行了系统梳理,对比分析结果表明,中国出口哈萨克斯坦农产品结构在互补性与竞争性方面整体上呈现出有益的变化,基本符合比较优势理论的发展要求,但微观角度的考量则表现出明显的差异性,尤其是对互补性的相关测算,报告期内波动明显;而该研究通过进一步对要素禀赋结构的考察,发现中国对哈出口农产品要素结构仍处于较低水平,劳动密集型农产品与资源密集型农产品出口份额较大,尤其是劳动密集型农产品,这一方面使我们对微观层面的波动有了更准确地把握;同时,通过综合对比分析,亦得出中国目前一些对哈出口农产品有向"比较优势陷阱"发展的可能,因此,文章遵循比较优势的基本逻辑,按照新丝绸之路经济带对西部的长期战略发展要求,给出若干政策建议,以期能够从理论层面贡献于中国对哈农产品贸易总额的稳定快速增长。     

Agriculture's terms of trade: issues and implications

The article addresses (1) the issue of what agricultural commodity prices should be compared to if we are concerned with the welfare of agriculturalists, (2) the general absence of product quality adjustment when analysis is undertaken comparing agricultural to manufactured goods prices, (3) the extent to which energy prices are or will be the driver of both manufactured and agricultural prices, and (4) the importance of considering agriculture's terms of trade (TOT) against the service sector, since the service sector is typically the largest in the economy. It reflects on the basic question of whether the widespread perception “that agriculture's TOT secularly decline” is correct.     

Dual Technological Development in Botswana Agriculture: A Stochastic Input Distance Function Approach

To improve the welfare of the rural poor and keep them in the countryside, the government of Botswana has been spending 40% of the value of agricultural GDP on agricultural support services. But can investment make smallholder agriculture prosperous in such adverse conditions? This paper derives an answer by applying a two‐output six‐input stochastic translog distance function, with inefficiency effects and biased technical change to panel data for the 18 districts and the commercial agricultural sector, from 1979 to 1996. This model demonstrates that herds are the most important input, followed by draft power, land and seeds. Multilateral indices for technical change, technical efficiency and total factor productivity (TFP) show that the technology level of the commercial agricultural sector is more than six times that of traditional agriculture and that the gap has been increasing, due to technological regression in traditional agriculture and modest progress in commercial agriculture. Since the levels of efficiency are similar, the same pattern is repeated by the TFP indices. This result highlights the policy dilemma of the trade‐off between efficiency and equity objectives.     

中国林化产品贸易条件及世界林化产品地区结构分析

利用净贸易条件指数和收入贸易条件指数从整体和分类2个层面对中国主要林化产品1992～2005年贸易条件进行分析,对2002～2005年世界主要林化产品地区结构进行分析。结果表明:中国主要林化产品贸易条件总体上在绝大多数年份得到改善,但单一产品的情况各不相同;中国是世界松香、活性碳、松节油和樟脑出口第一大国,在一定程度上左右国际市场。     

How would global trade liberalization affect rural and regional incomes in Australia?

Agricultural protection in rich countries, which had depressed Australian farm incomes via its impact on Australia’s terms of trade, has diminished over the past two decades. So too has agricultural export taxation in poor countries, which has had the opposite impact on those terms of trade. Meanwhile, however, import protection for developing country farmers has been steadily growing. To what extent are Australian farmers and rural regions still adversely affected by farm and non‐farm price‐ and trade‐distortive policies abroad? This paper draws on new estimates of the current extent of those domestic and foreign distortions: first, to model their net impact on Australia’s terms of trade (using the World Bank’s Linkage model of the global economy); and second, to model the effects of that terms of trade impact on output and real incomes in rural versus urban and other regions and households within Australia as of 2004 (using Monash’s multi‐regional TERM model of the Australian economy).     

Agricultural price transmission across space and commodities during price bubbles

This article investigates agricultural price transmission during price bubbles. The empirical approach concerns the horizontal transmission of cereal prices both across different market places and across different commodities. The trade policy intervention put forward to mitigate the impact of price exuberance is considered. The analysis is performed using Italian and international weekly spot (cash) price data over years 2006–2010, a period of generalized turbulence of agricultural markets. Firstly, the properties of price time series are explored; then, interdependence across prices is specified and estimated by adopting appropriate cointegration techniques. Results suggest that the bubble had only a slight impact on the price spread and the temporary trade‐policy measure, when effective, has limited this impact.     

Integrated regional impact assessment of agricultural trade and domestic environmental policies

It remains challenging to derive general findings and conclusions from either economic theory or empirical studies on the relationship between international trade and the regional environment. Consequently, we aim to analyse environmental effects of agricultural trade policies in the Austrian Marchfeld region. We apply an integrated modelling framework that accounts for heterogeneity in agricultural production and environmental outcomes. Scenario analysis is applied to assess regional impacts of different trade policy scenarios. Sensitivity analyses reveal the relative influence of model parameters on outputs. The results indicate that lower domestic tariffs have small beneficial effects on the regional environment. The regional environmental impacts highly depend on the changes in world crop prices through global trade agreements. A laissez-faire market scenario that includes the elimination of trade barriers and agri-environmental payments (AEPs) leads to substantial environmental deterioration. Hence, the alignment of AEPs with WTO trading rules remains an important issue in the trade and environment debate.     

Brexit: How Will UK Agriculture Fare?

There is little doubt that Brexit would have significant implications for UK agriculture, a sector with strong trade links to the EU and strong reliance on CAP income support. This article reports preliminary results from employing a Computable General Equilibrium Model, a Partial Equilibrium Model and Farm Level Models to explore selected trade and domestic policy scenarios post‐Brexit. These allow for the estimation of changes in producer prices, production and farm incomes against a baseline scenario of continued EU membership. Under a Free Trade Agreement with the EU, agricultural impacts are relatively modest. By contrast, unilateral removal of import tariffs has significant negative impacts on prices, production and incomes. Adoption of the EU's WTO tariff schedule for all imports favours net importers (e.g. dairy) and harms net exporters (e.g. sheep). Given the strong dependence of most UK farms on direct payments, their removal worsens negative impacts of new trade arrangements and offsets positive impacts. Impacts vary across different types and sizes of farm, but also regionally. However, the period of adjustment to new trade and domestic policy conditions may prove very challenging for a large number of farm businesses.     

Decomposing Changes in Agricultural Producer Prices

This article develops a method for decomposing changes in agricultural producer prices. The method builds on a procedure used by the World Bank, with the main variables in the decomposition being trade prices, exchange rates and trade policies. We expand on the World Bank decomposition procedure by broadening the analysis of policy effects, adding the effect from incomplete transmission of changes in trade prices and exchange rates to producer prices, and handling the effect on prices from interactions between variables as they change simultaneously. Decomposition results are presented for various commodities for the major emerging markets of Brazil, China and South Africa.     

Higher fuel and food prices: impacts and responses for Mozambique

Rising world prices for fuel and food represent a negative terms‐of‐trade shock for Mozambique. The impacts of these price rises are analyzed using various approaches. Detailed price data show that the world price increases are being transmitted to domestic prices. Short‐run net benefit ratio analysis indicates that urban households and households in the southern region are more vulnerable to food price increases. Rural households, particularly in the North and Center, often benefit from being in a net seller position. Longer‐term analysis using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of Mozambique indicates that the fuel price shock dominates rising food prices from both macroeconomic and poverty perspectives. Again, negative impacts are larger in urban areas. The importance of agricultural production response in general and export response in particular is highlighted. Policy analysis reveals difficult trade‐offs between short‐run mitigation and long‐run growth. Improved agricultural productivity has powerful positive impacts, but remains difficult to achieve and may not address the immediate impacts of higher prices.     

TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY IN UK AGRICULTURE, 1967-90

Indices of total factor productivity (TFP) measure aggregate output per unit of aggregate input, providing a guide to the efficiency of agricultural production. This paper outlines the relationship between production functions and TFP indices. An index for the period 1967-90, constructed from the UK aggregate agricultural accounts, shows that TFP grew at an average rate of 1.9% per annum and that TFP growth has increased since the UK joined the European Community. At the aggregate level, this change seems to be explained by increased aggregate output and decreased aggregate input, in about equal proportions. Disaggregation shows the intensification effect of the CAP price regime. There has been rapid growth in the output of farm crops, relative to other enterprises, and in the use of agricultural chemicals.     

Is a slowdown in agricultural productivity growth contributing to the rise in commodity prices?

A slowdown in the rate of agricultural productivity growth is thought by many observers to be contributing to the recent rise in agricultural prices. In this article I decompose sources of output growth in global agriculture into aggregate input and total factor productivity (TFP) components and examine whether productivity growth slowed substantially in the years leading up to the recent rise in commodity prices. Contrary to widely held perceptions, I find no evidence of a general slowdown in sector‐wide agricultural TFP, at least through 2006. If anything, the growth rate in agricultural TFP accelerated in recent decades. However, the results do show a slowdown in the growth of agricultural investment. Accelerating TFP growth largely offset decelerating input growth to keep the real output of global agriculture growing at about 2% per year since the 1960s. Regionally, however, agricultural productivity performance has been uneven. These findings have important implications for the appropriate supply‐side policy response to the current agricultural price crisis.     

中国与“一带一路”国家农产品价格关联性研究——兼论中美贸易摩擦的影响

本文采用溢出网络方法及2010-2018年大豆、小麦、玉米月度价格数据,实证分析中国与“一带一路”沿线国家间农产品价格的多维关联特征,并着重探讨中美贸易战对该价格关联性的影响.结果 显示:(1)总体而言,中国与沿线国家间的小麦、玉米价格存在较强关联性,大豆价格关联性较弱,且关联程度在全球供给冲击和A股股灾期间显著上升;...     

Agricultural Supply Response: A Survey

This paper surveys the literature on agricultural supply response to prices in developing countries. Empirical estimates of elasticities depend both on the methodology adopted and on country-specific factors relating to technology, economic structure and macro constraints. The paper seeks to establish some general conclusions on supply responsiveness within these limitations. Supply response to output prices at the aggregate and at the crop levels is considered first. Crop-specific acreage elasticities range between zero and 0.8 in the short run while long-run elasticities tend to be higher — between 0.3 and 1.2. Yield elasticities are smaller and less stable than acreage elasticities. Clearly, inter-crop pricing can be relied upon to effect shifts in the commodity composition of agricultural output. Evidence also suggests that supply elasticities vary systematically with such factors as price and yield risks, multiple-cropping, the importance of the crop, farm incomes, farm size, tenancy and literacy. The most controversial and important aspect of supply response is the effect on aggregate agricultural output of agriculture's terms of trade. Conventional time-series estimates range from 0.1 to 0.3. A major cross-country study reports an aggregate elasticity as high as 1.66. It is argued that cross-country estimates are apt to exaggerate aggregate responsiveness while time-series studies underestimate it somewhat. For LDCs, a tentative range of 0.4 to 0.5 seems plausible. Hence, the distributive effects of the terms of trade are likely to be more significant than the allocative effects. Asian evidence shows that only a third of the inter-country differences in fertilizer use can be attributed to fertilizer price policies. Provided new technologies and infrastructure are in place, fertilizer subsidies can help in technology diffusion and in overcoming credit constraints. The choice between price supports and input subsidies will depend on a variety of country- or situation-specific factors. Nevertheless, a significant general factor favoring price supports is that they can more easily be coupled with price stabilization goals than input subsidies. Though sparse, the available evidence on the response of marketed surplus suggests that price policy is not a reliable instrument for regulating inter-sectoral trade.     

中国木质家具贸易条件变动分析

从进出口贸易数量、金额、价格、市场等方面论述我国木质家具的贸易变化情况。计算和分析木质家具的价格贸易条件和收入贸易条件,通过模型对其价格贸易条件变化进行预测。通过静态贸易条件和动态贸易条件两个指标,从贸易条件角度分析中国木质家具贸易利益的变化情况,判断木质家具是否出现了贫困化增长。提出改善我国木质家具贸易条件的建议。