Productivity Versus Employment: Quantifying the Economic Effects of an EU–Japan Free Trade Agreement

The European Union and Japan recently entered into negotiations over a bilateral free trade agreement intended to stimulate growth and create wealth. Since customs duties are already low, the success of the liberalisation process hinges on the elimination of non‐tariff barriers. The purpose of this paper is to shed light on two possible liberalisation scenarios: a less ambitious liberalisation and a comprehensive liberalisation. In contrast to classic studies, our paper builds on the modern trade literature, accounting for the dominance of intra‐industry trade in both economies and the existence of heterogeneous firms. Furthermore, we model a search‐and‐matching labour market, allowing us to quantify employment effects of trade liberalisation. We find that a comprehensive liberalisation increases Japanese GDP by 0.86 per cent, whereas the EU experiences only an additional 0.21 per cent of real GDP growth. Most of the growth in real GDP is due to firms' efficiency gains, whereas unemployment is reduced by only a small amount. Other world regions experience small reductions of GDP due to trade diversion effects.     

The Macroeconomic Effects of the Canada–US Free Trade Agreement on Canada: A Counterfactual Analysis

We evaluate the macroeconomic effects of the Canada–US Free Trade Agreement (FTA) on Canada's economy using a counterfactual analysis. We exploit the dependence of GDP growth (labour productivity and unemployment, respectively) among different economic entities and construct the counterfactuals using data from countries other than Canada. We find that in the adjustment period from 1989:Q1 to 1992:Q1, Canada's economy bore the short‐run adjustment costs of the FTA with a decline of the annual real GDP by 2.56 per cent and a decline of the labour productivity by 0.62 per cent. After the adjustment period, the FTA had a positive and permanent effect of 1.86 per cent on Canada's annual real GDP growth and raised the labour productivity from 1992 to 1994 by 2.39 per cent on average. Moreover, the FTA increased Canada's annual unemployment rate by 1.81 per cent in the period 1989–94.     

The International Effects of China’s Growth,Trade and Education Booms

China’s international trade flows have increased by 500 per cent since 1992, far outstripping GDP growth. Likewise tertiary education enrolments have increased by 300 per cent. We simulate these changes using a multi‐sector growth model of the Chinese and USA economies. A decade of trade biased growth in China is found to raise USA GDP by approximately 3–4.5 percentage points and has a large impact on the demand for tertiary education in China. Despite these positive effects of growth, the results suggest that the expansion of China’s education sector per se has practically no long‐run impact on the USA economy.     

Multi Fibre Arrangement and Wage Inequality: Firm and State‐level Evidence from India and a Theoretical Model

The phased elimination of Multi Fibre Arrangements (MFA) for textile and apparel has been one of the most compelling trade policy reforms that removed a system of bilateral quotas. The reform brought in significant changes in the industrial structures for exporters from the south, including India. Has the labour‐intensive high‐employment textile and clothing industry in India benefited from this global move towards freer trade? For India, the industry has witnessed unprecedented market concentration of export‐oriented firms. Firm‐level empirical estimate illustrates that workers in the export‐oriented firms in India are adversely affected due to withdrawal of quota. Accumulation of net fixed assets and growth of sales impart positive impact on firm‐level wages that cannot outweigh negative impact due to fall in exports. We also find negative impact of profit on aggregate wage bill for the industry with firms spread over 11 major states in India. We show that the mean deviation of industry‐level wage is positively and significantly associated with mean deviation of the number of factories at the state level and negatively with profit. Finally, a brief analytical exercise obtains conditions under which joint withdrawal of quota and import tariff could raise the aggregate labour income in developing countries, in general.     

What Drives India's Surge in Service Exports?

India's prowess in the service sector has been recognised the world over. Sustaining services exports is important not only to sustain India's high growth rate but also to compensate for a consistent deficit in merchandise trade and to maintain stability on the external sector. In this context, we analyse the factors of India's performance in services exports over the past three decades. The results reveal that endowment factors such as human capital, improvement in physical infrastructure and financial development are key drivers for India's surge in services exports along with world demand, exchange rate and manufacturing exports. While factors such as institutions, R&D expenditure, telecommunication, foreign direct investment and financial development significantly impact the export of modern services, traditional services exports are more dependent on infrastructure development, manufacturing exports, world demand and exchange rate. India's economic reforms in the financial sector, FDI, communication so far have helped the services exports, but India needs to focus on supply‐side factors to improve the competitiveness – and thereby volume – of services exports.     

Trade,Technology and Human Capital: Stylised Facts and Quantitative Evidence

Stylised evidence on trade, total factor productivity (TFP) and skill intensity of the labour force is presented. Features emerging as salient are: growing trade in technology‐intensive products from the industrialised nations to the relatively laggard nations leads to embodied technology diffusion; the technology‐intensive sectors have larger shares of skilled workers; countries experiencing TFP growth usually have higher levels of educational attainment; also, the skilled labour payment share for a sector is positively associated with that sector’s regional trade share. These facts together help explain why endowment of more skilled labour facilitates absorption of technology ferried via trade.     

Designing EU–US Atlantic Monetary Relations: Exchange Rate Variability and Labour Markets

The variability of the euro seems to have a statistically significant and economically small, but non‐negligible, impact on labour markets in Euroland. Unemployment tends to increase and employment growth tends to fall whenever the effective exchange rate of the euro or the bilateral euro/dollar exchange rate becomes more variable. In the US a similar effect seems to be operating, but it is statistically less strong, especially concerning employment growth, which seems largely insulated from exchange rate variability. These results fit the general observation that US labour markets are more flexible and that the euro area is considerably more open than the US (exports of goods and services amount to close to 18 per cent of Euroland GDP versus only about 11 per cent for the US).     

Wirtschaftspolitik für die Eurozone

At the root of the euro crisis was not only a sovereign debt crisis but also a balance-of-payments crisis. A multi-faceted approach is required to restore sustainable growth and prevent a vicious circle of public and private sector deleveraging leading to weaker economic activity, which in turn results in a further deterioration in banks’ asset quality. Both governments and the European Central Bank (ECB) face challenges. Governments must make progress in restoring the health and resilience of the banking sector and introduce microeconomic reforms in product, services and labour markets to reduce divergent trends in competitiveness and productivity. Budgetary discipline must be respected, and the ECB should avoid any deflationary bias while stabilising inflation at or around two per cent for the euro area as a whole.     

Impact of Trade on Canada's Employment,Skill and Wage Structure

Using newly constructed data for 88 Canadian industries (including primary, manufacturing and services), for 15 years (1992–2007), we analyse the impact of trade and technological change on labour demand, skill structure, wage premiums and welfare in Canada. Results show that export growth has no impact, whereas import growth reduces employment growth. But contrary to popular belief, Canada's job loss due to imports has been very small, only about 6,000 persons annually. China's negative impacts are more pronounced in industries where the share of information and communication technology (ICT) capital is rising fast and among low R&D intensive industries. In terms of skill change, ICT use and real exchange rate appreciation are biased towards high skill workers. Imports from the United States and China are skill‐neutral, whereas imports from Mexico are skill‐upgrading. Overall, neither export nor import growth has an impact on the wage rate. However, had there been no imports from China, the annual wage growth rate of high skill manufacturing workers would have been 0.6 per cent higher. Between 1992 and 2007, there was an annual net gain from the rise in imports at about 0.4 per cent of GDP, in addition to the gains obtained from 1992 import levels vis‐à‐vis autarky.     

The Developmental Impact of Asian Drivers on Kenya with Emphasis on Textiles and Clothing Manufacturing

(1251) Paul Kamau with Dorothy McCormick and Nicolas Pinaud Kenya has enjoyed a relatively diversified economy (at least by SSA standards), with light manufacturing industries in particular playing a significant growing role. The rise of Asian competition (locally, regionally and on third‐country markets), partly due to the erosion of trade preferences for clothing and footwear, has raised fresh policy challenges. The specific relevance of the clothing industry in the analysis of China’s and India’s impact on Africa is manifold: this is a low‐skilled labour‐intensive industry, and hence an avenue for African economies’ diversification; the competition from Asian producers vis‐à‐vis the SSA clothing industry is felt at the local, regional and global level (on third‐country markets): it is therefore direct and indirect; also, the Asian Drivers’ impact on African clothing industries has both a trade and investment dimension while being competitive and complementary.     

Where have All the Educated Workers Gone? Services and Wage Inequality in Three Asian Economies

The wage returns to college have risen relative to those to secondary education in many developing economies. In India, the Philippines and Thailand, this is related to the expansion of services employment. We show this using decompositions connecting shifts in the returns to education to changing job opportunities. High‐skill services employment grew slowly while relative demand in the sector shifted from secondary to college graduates, pushing workers with secondary education into low‐skill intensive services. These polarizing trends in services employment account for the growing convexity of the Mincerian wage profile, and may constrain governments seeking to use educational expansion to alter the wage distribution.     

生产性服务业的发展与经济增长实证研究——以山东省为例

山东省仅在部分传统生产性服务业中有相对优势,经济增长对生产性服务业的依赖程度还不高,传统生产性服务业的贡献度高于现代生产性服务业。从目前来看,山东的经济发展主要是靠工业的驱动。按照世纪经济的一般规律来看,当人均GDP达到3 000美元之后,产业结构和消费结构都将发生重大变化,2005年山东省人均GDP达到20 096元,即将达到3000美元的水平。所以正需要生产性服务业成为山东主裁判长的新引擎。     

Services policy reform and manufacturing employment: Evidence from transition economies

Policy reforms targeting the services sectors are a neglected dimension of the process of structural transformation and economic development. The effects of such reforms on employment across industries as a function of their use of services as intermediate inputs are theoretically ambiguous and remain largely understudied. This paper uses sector‐level data for 24 transition economies for the 1990–2012 period to assess the impacts of services policy reforms on downstream manufacturing employment. We find a negative effect of services reforms on manufacturing sector employment. This is mostly associated with the process of transition to a market‐based economy. Controlling for transition‐specific dynamics, the data suggest a neutral effect of progress towards adopting “best practice” policies for upstream services on employment in downstream manufacturing. Furthermore, in line with the extant literature, we confirm that services policy reforms enhance productivity of downstream manufacturing industries. Finally, we find that the negative effects on downstream employment are mitigated in countries with better economic governance and human capital.     

Opening of China's Trade,Labour Market Reform and Impact on Rural Wages

Government policy in China supports urban wages at the expense of returns to farm labour. A model is developed to estimate how WTO accession and complementary labour market reform will influence factor returns in China. With WTO membership, a larger cut in manufacturing tariffs compared to agriculture will improve agriculture's terms of trade and will raise the agricultural wage. Complementary labour market reforms will further boost farm wages as labour exits agriculture in large numbers. We estimate that WTO membership and complementary labour market reforms will result in a decline in the agricultural labour force by about 25 per cent.     

Service Offshoring and Productivity: Evidence from the US

The practice of sourcing service inputs from overseas suppliers has been growing in response to new technologies that have made it possible to trade in some business and computing services that were previously considered non‐tradable. This paper estimates the effects of offshoring on productivity in US manufacturing industries between 1992 and 2000. It finds that service offshoring has a significant positive effect on productivity in the United States, accounting for around 10 per cent of labour productivity growth during this period. Offshoring material inputs also have a positive effect on productivity, but the magnitude is smaller accounting for approximately 5 per cent of productivity growth.     

Outsourcing and the US Labour Market

There is worldwide concern about the vulnerability of the current labour force to displacement by future imported services. In the USA, some have suggested that as much as one‐third of the workforce might be vulnerable to such outsourcing. However, the labour market impacts of this displacement are difficult to assess using purely analytical or statistical approaches. In this paper, simulation methods are used to understand how sensitive the US economy and labour market are to increases in services imports. Specifically, the scenario examined assumes that the share of imported services in total employment increases from 0.8 per cent to 7.25 per cent over a time horizon in which workers are unable to change occupations. In response, it is found that all industries increase their use of imported services and their use of the composite input that is comprised of imported services and tradable labour. With the exception of legal workers, all workers in tradable occupations experience declines in their real wages. Demand for non‐tradable occupations labour rises in the industries that expand the most, while demand falls in shrinking industries. The non‐tradable occupations that are used intensively in the shrinking industries experience declines in real wages, while the real wages rise for workers in non‐tradable occupations used intensively in the expanding industries.     

Assessing the Business Value of Information Technology in Global Wholesale Banking: The Case of Trade Services

The investment in information technologies (IT) in the financial services sector has proliferated in the last decade. Yet there is very little research examining the impact of IT in the financial services sector. In this article, we focus on the trade services application in global wholesale banking. We use the production function approach to estimate the impact of IT in this application. Our estimate of the output elasticity of IT is positive and statistically significant. In addition, we find that the return on investment of IT (increase in dollar revenue per dollar spent in IT) is about 100% per year, holding labor input constant. Our study provides one instance of direct evidence that IT has a favorable impact on productivity in the financial services sector.     

The Effect of Entering the WTO on the Oil Industry and the Economy of Taiwan

The crude oil price of the world increased two‐fold during 1999–2002. The price of domestic oil products for the same period increased with a smaller percentage, i.e., 27 per cent. This phenomenon could be attributed to Taiwan's oil market liberalisation after 2000 and its entering the WTO since November 2001. According to this study, the effect of entering the WTO itself suppressed the oil price from increase by 15.455 per cent in 2002. It also reduced the inflation rate by 0.74 per cent and increased the economic growth by 0.39 per cent. Nevertheless, entering the WTO also increases the competition in the oil industry, which is a big challenge to the domestic oil refinery sector and the state‐owned Chinese Petroleum Corporation in particular. The price decrease of oil products also increases the demand for oil products and exacerbated air pollution and CO₂ emissions. For minimising the negative impact of entering the WTO on the economy, the Taiwan government has devised a series of preparations in the last decade. Those preparations include a step‐by‐step market liberalisation plan, a strategy taken by the state‐owned CPC, a new taxation implementation and the legislative works such as the Petroleum Act. This experience might be worthwhile for the reference of other economies.     

How Does FDI Affect Domestic Firms’ Exports? Industrial Evidence

Using a Heckman sample selection model estimated using pooled four‐year firm‐level data, this paper explores the export spillovers from the FDI in the cultural, educational and sporting product manufacturing industry of the manufacturing sector in China from 2000 to 2003. The manufacturing sector contributes around 40 per cent of the GDP in the Chinese economy, and the cultural, educational and sporting product manufacturing industry has a significant proportion of FDI activities, and firms in this sector are active in exporting. Through the empirical exercise, we find that there exist export spillovers from FDI in the industry, for which the magnitude depends on firms’ geographical location, sale cost and revenue ratio, and ownership structure. On average, domestic firms located in Western China suffer from a foreign presence, irrespective of whether they are privately owned or state and collectively owned. For firms in Central China, both the privately owned and state and collectively owned firms appear to benefit from foreign presence. Regarding firms located in Coastal China, the privately owned firms suffer from the foreign presence, while in contrast the state and collectively owned firms benefit from the foreign presence. In addition, in this industry there are more firms that benefit from the presence of FDI than those that suffer, which to some extent justifies the government's policy to attract the FDI inflow.     

Labour productivity in M&As: industry sector vs. services sector

Due to the high failure rate of the mergers and acquisitions (M&A) strategy, this study raises the questions of whether the pre-M&A performances of the acquirer and the target could predict improvement in labour productivity in the post-M&A period. The study also conducted sector analysis by comparison between three groups of the sample: the industry sector M&As, the services sector M&As and the all sectors M&As. The study uses a sample of 394 public firms from 13 countries that were involved in M&As. The study highlights the differences between the sectors. Buying a larger target in the services sector may not hinder the labour productivity in the post-M&A period, while in the industry sector, it may end in a negative influence on labour productivity. The study also shows that the labour productivity is higher in the services sector compared to the labour productivity in the industry sector, particularly during the integration stage.