Labour Migration and Economic Growth in East and South‐East Asia

East and South‐East Asia will face major demographic changes over the next few decades with many countries’ labour forces starting to decline, while others experience higher labour force growth as populations and/or participation rates increase. A well‐managed labour migration strategy presents itself as a mechanism for ameliorating the impending labour shortages in some East Asia–Pacific countries, while providing an opportunity for other countries with excess labour to provide migrant workers who will contribute to the development of the home country through greater remittance flows. This paper examines such migration policy options using a global dynamic economic simulation approach and finds that allowing migrants to respond to the major demographic changes occurring in Asia over the next 50 years would be beneficial to most economies in the region in terms of real incomes and real GDP over the 2007–50 period. Such a policy could deeply affect the net migration position of a country. Countries that were net recipients under current migration policies might become net senders under the more liberal policy regime.     

“刘易斯拐点”已现：“民工荒”与“涨薪潮”

本文通过愈演愈烈的＂民工荒＂、＂涨薪潮＂和＂劳资纠纷＂现象,根据发展经济学基本理论,结合城市化进程和城乡劳动力市场一体化进程的新态势,综合判定我国经济过程中第一个＂刘易斯拐点＂（短缺点）已经出现。我国经济已经发展到＂刘易斯转折区域＂这一阶段,＂人口红利＂逐步消失,结构性就业矛盾更加严重。随着＂刘易斯拐点＂出现,我国农村劳动力供需状况发生实质性变化,这将给我国经济社会发展战略和产业发展政策带来新的挑战,需要有关方面采取相应对策。     

Trade and economic development in Taiwan

Taiwan’s remarkable growth record has been the result of an outward-looking, export propelled development strategy. Recently unfavourable political and economic events have adversely affected Taiwan’s economy. This article analyses the country’s economic development and appraises its future prospects.     

贸易发展战略的理论综述——对俄罗斯贸易战略分析

贸易战略是一国较长时间内的发展战略之一,不同的外贸发展战略会对一国的经济增长速度产生不同的影响。俄罗斯是一个资源大国,长期以来一直致力于发展资源型经济,从而形成了一种路径依赖下的出口导向贸易战略,这种贸易战略虽使得俄罗斯经济得到发展,但在长期实施过程中又产生了一系列的负面影响。俄罗斯想尽快的走向世界前列,必须发挥自己的竞争优势,提高经济的竞争力,生产高附加值产品,走出一条创新型发展道路。     

论进口在国民经济增长中的作用及中国的政策选择

进口在国民经济增长中的作用是由经济增长的需求决定的,生产性的进口能带动生产技术的改进和提高,有外在间接的促进作用。我国在合理规范出口的同时,应着重改善提高经济发展水平,缩小与发达国家的差距。外贸顺差导致国际贸易壁垒层出不穷,并存在持有外汇储备成本高的风险。应制定符合国情进口战略,扩大进口,加快进口贸易体制改革的步伐。     

‘Information and Communication Technologies’ and entrepreneurial activity: drivers of economic growth in Europe

Innovation and entrepreneurial activities have become increasingly important elements for economic growth and are also decisive factors in a country's level of development. As regards the scope of this work, the European region as a whole occupies the top positions in most of the technological indicators. Entrepreneurial activity plays a significant role for the economy of a country owing, among other matters, to its effects on the labour market and economic growth. Apart from fomenting job creation, the presence of entrepreneurs may be related to the structure and performance of a country's economy. The main purpose of this work is to analyse what relationship exists between technological availability and the presence of entrepreneurs in European countries.     

Child Labour Use and Economic Growth: An Econometric Analysis

We present a simple dynamic theory of child labour, human capital formation, and economic growth that is consistent with some of the main features of child labour and economic development. The model supports a number of testable hypotheses, which we investigate econometrically in a systems approach. Using panel data from 64 countries in the period 1960–1980, the econometric results match the theory well. The incidence of child labour is negatively related to parental human capital and education quality, but is positively correlated with education cost. Further, countries with higher amounts of child labour tend to have lower stocks of human capital in the future. There is also a convergence phenomenon between the level and growth of human capital. The lower the current stock of human capital, the higher is current child‐labour use and the faster is the growth rate of human capital.     

我国风险投资的现状与发展前景

风险投资是一种特殊的产融结合方式,对加速科技成果向生产力转化,带动整个经济结构升级和社会经济高速发展起着积极作用。虽然,我国风险投资还处于起步阶段,但随着科教兴国战略的实施以及经济体制改革的深化,风险投资已受到各方的广泛关注并呈现出广阔的发展前景。     

China,India and the Commodity Boom: Economic and Environmental Implications for Low‐income Countries

The international role of China has risen steadily for two decades – and has become even more important in the current global recession. The growing supply of labour‐intensive manufactured exports from China has been accompanied by a huge expansion in its imports both of raw materials and of skill‐intensive manufactured parts and components. This ‘offshoring’ of intermediates production by a large, labour‐abundant economy has economic and environmental implications for other developing economies. More recently, the rapid expansion of the Indian economy and trade indicates that it too will soon exert similar effects on global markets. We sketch a model showing how the growth of these developing‐country ‘giants’ generates adjustment pressures on other developing economies. We discuss in particular how differences in relative factor endowments of resource‐rich economies can produce quite different outcomes in the context of product fragmentation and expanding commodity trade. We also explore the effects on production, trade, environment and prospects for future growth in resource‐rich economies, particularly in the context of weak institutions and other market failures. We illustrate these different impacts by considering the cases of Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand and highlight implications for growth, development and policy.     

贵阳市经济高质量发展评价

通过构建高质量发展评价指标体系,对贵阳市2009-2018年的经济发展质量进行评价,发现贵阳市推动经济高质量发展成效显著,高质量发展综合指数从2009年的35. 4提升到2018年66. 47,年均增长6. 5%。创新、协调、绿色、共享提升较大,体现了经济发展数量和质量的统一。但是开放性是目前贵阳经济高质量发展的最大短板,共享性和协调性仍需继续提升。     

我国战略性新兴产业发展策略研究

当今世界正处在大发展、大变革、大调整时期,创新成为国家竞争力的核心要素。战略性新兴产业是一个国家或地区实现未来经济持续增长,并对国民经济发展和产业结构升级具有决定性促进和导向作用的产业。培育和发展战略性新兴产业是我国"十二五"期间有效应对国际金融危机,加快经济发展方式转变的战略抉择。以战略性新兴产业为引领、推动我国经济走创新驱动、内生增长的道路,是关系我国经济社会发展全局的重要命题。     

由速度效率型向质量效益型转变

大连船舶重工整合重组后的三年中,找准经营策略、及时调整结构、加强内部管理、转变增长模式,使得大连船舶重工进人发展速度最陕、经济效益最好、运行质量最佳的时期。应对金融危机带来的冲击,大连船舶重工力求实现——     

我国经济增长与收入分配的关系探析

我国的经济体制改革在带来经济高速增长的同时也引起了居民收入分配格局的重大变化,居民收入总量增长的同时,收入分配的差距也越来越大,其中既有二元经济结构的影响,也有区域经济发展不平衡的作用,还有垄断行业职工收入超常增长的因素,目前收入差距对经济增长的影响已经由过去的支持转变为制约。作为发展中的社会主义国家,必须认真对待收入差距过大问题,在科学发展观的指导下,在实现全面小康社会的过程中,在增长与分配协调发展的原则下走向共同富裕。     

金融发展应成为构建“十一五”经济发展机制的核心内容

在中国这样具有发展中和转轨中双重特征的国家，经济发展机制具有更加重要的意义。改革开放以来我国东南沿海地区的经验表明，形成良好的金融支持体系对于经济发展尤其是内生性经济发展至关重要。目前全国大部分地区金融发展滞后已经成为制约经济发展的重要因素，“十一五”时期，应该把金融发展和金融体系创新提上重要日程，作为构建经济发展机制的关键和核心内容。制定明确有序的金融发展规划，全面深化金融体制发展与改革，积极重建地方性金融服务体系，改变金融发展滞后对经济发展的不利影响，创造良好的经济发展环境和机制。     

引入信用保险下的中小企业融资问题分析

改革开放近30多年来,中小企业已成为当代经济中最为活跃的因素和力量,为我国经济的持续和高速增长作出了巨大贡献,同时在解决我国劳动力就业问题上有着不可替代的根本地位。但由于其先天不足,在大企业的挤压下,融资难已成为制约中小型企业发展的瓶颈。通过对中小企业的现有贸易模式进行调查和分析,结合当前市场上已有的保险公司配合银行推出的信用保险模式,提出了贸易项下中小企业融资可行性的建议。     

我国利用外资与经济增长的实证分析

从我国利用外资与GDP增长率的相关性入手,对我国1986年以来利用外资的表现以及对经济增长的贡献进行了实证分析。结果表明:我国利用外资尤其外商直接投资对经济增长具有较强的促进作用,近几年来我国在利用外资质量方面存在着问题,外商直接投资仍有很大发展潜力。在此基础上进行了分析评价并提出了有关建议。     

The Theory of Raising Rivals’ Costs and Evidence from the International Labour Organisation

The strategy of raising rivals’ costs may be adopted by firms in a market, a cartel or interest group or by political majorities in a federal state or international organisation. We provide a first survey and formal exposition of the theory and present examples for each of these applications. In an international cross‐section analysis using unpublished data for the period 1980–98, we explain roll‐call voting of government representatives in ILO committees drafting international labour standards. Using four different indices of regulation and country samples, we find that governments vote for tighter standards if labour regulation is high in their own country. Our evidence rejects the hypothesis of Brown, Deardorff and Stern that countries exporting low‐skill labour‐intensive products vote for ILO standards in order to restrict their own supply and increase their terms of trade. As expected, left‐party governments vote more in line with labour unions than other governments do. Domestic regulation has a considerably larger effect on voting if the convention in question would raise labour costs in ILO member states. This indicates that highly regulated countries try to raise others’ costs.     

中国经济发展回顾与展望

经过三十多年的快速发展,中国经济规模增加了20.5倍,人均收入跨过了高中等收入国家的门槛,成为"世界工厂"、全球最大的出口国、世界第二大经济体。不仅对中国人民生活水平的提高作出了巨大贡献,而且对世界经济作出了巨大贡献。中国经济持续高速增长最主要的原因是充分利用了后发优势,大力发展具有比较优势的劳动力密集型产业。在整个发展过程中,渐进的双轨制转型方式功不可没,它使中国经济平稳地向社会主义市场经济转型。只要继续解放思想、实事求是、与时俱进,不断地根据科学发展观提高产业和技术水平,中国平均每年8%的增长速度就有可能再维持20年,到2030年经济总体规模至少与美国相当。     

东北老工业基地循环经济立法问题初探

东北老工业基地是我国经济发展的战略重地,中央提出的“振兴东北”战略正是对其地位的肯定。将振兴东北老工业基地与发展循环经济相结合是复兴东北的关键,亦是我国建设循环型社会的基石。“循环经济,立法先行”。我国在循环经济立法方面刚刚起步,应以“振兴战略”为契机,制定一部区域性法律,以完善的循环经济法律体系,引导和规范循环经济的发展。同时应充分发挥区域的比较优势,密切结合生态保护和区域环境综合整治,以循环经济体系为基础,促进建立循环经济型社会。     

1998-2008年我国中西部地区体制改革与交易费用关系实证研究

随着西部大开发战略的实施和中部地区经济的发展，这些地区的交易费用的规模逐渐扩大，但交易费用占GDP的比重相对平稳。究其原因是经济体制改革抑制了交易费用的增加。交易费用的节约是经济增长的源泉．经济体制改革则是为了节约交易费用。因此，交易费用的节约程度可作为衡量国家或某地区经济体制改革绩效的量度之一．本文即是从这方面对我国中西部地区1998-2008年经济体制改革绩效进行实证分析。