Estimation of R&D depreciation rates: a suggested methodology and preliminary application

Abstract The 2008 version of the SNA has recommended capitalization of R&D expenditures. To implement this recommendation, we need to determine the depreciation rate of R&D capital. In this paper, we develop a simple model, based on a production function method that allows for monopolistic competition, to estimate the annual depreciation rate of R&D capital. We treat R&D capital as a technology shifter instead of as an explicit input factor. Both the R&D stock and the time variable are used to capture technological progress. Estimated R&D depreciation rates and markup factors are presented for the U.S. manufacturing sector and four U.S. knowledge‐intensive industries.     

风险投资家的最优激励契约模型研究--一种基于逆向选择和道德风险条件下的博弈模型分析

为减少风险投资融资中风险投资家的逆向选择和道德风险,风险投资者必须设立一套有效的激励机制来让风险投资家选择,从而根据风险投资家选择的结果来甄别其真实能力类型,同时又能激励其努力工作。文章建立了风险投资家能力类型和努力都是不可观测条件下的最优激励契约模型,并根据显示原理,利用最优控制理论求出了最优解进而进行了分析。得出的结论是:最优激励契约能使高能力风险投资家乐于选择具有高强度激励、低固定收入和风险小的项目,同时又能激励其签约后更加努力工作。     

Financial Globalization,Financial Crises,and the External Portfolio Structure of Emerging Markets*

We study the transitional dynamics of financial integration in emerging economies using a two‐sector model with a collateral constraint on external debt and trading costs incurred by foreign investors. The probability of a financial crisis displays overshooting; it rises sharply initially and then falls sharply, but remains non‐zero in the long run. While equity holdings fall permanently, bond holdings initially fall, but rise after the probability of a crisis peaks. Conversely, asset returns and asset prices first rise and then fall. These results are in line with the post‐globalization dynamics observed in emerging markets, and the higher frequency of crises that they display.     

生态旅游可持续发展困境:成因及治理——基于信息经济学的分析

生态旅游曾被认为是实现旅游业可持续发展的最好途径,但是由于生态旅游产品具有的经验性商品、产品标准化程度低等的特征,决定了生态旅游的交易双方关于产品质量信息的不对称。而信息不对称又是导致生态旅游市场逆向选择和道德风险的主要原因。文章运用博弈论和信息经济学的相关理论模型,从理论角度论述了我国目前生态旅游可持续发展存在的困境,并基于现实情况提出了相关的治理措施。     

我国股份制商业银行不良资产现状及对策研究

本文描述了我国股份制商业银行不良资产现状,并从宏观经济环境、银行自身弱势、法人治理结构及社会信用等方面,对我国股份制商业银行不良资产的成因进行了客观分析,重点阐述了我国股份制商业银行解决不良资产的战略选择。本文既提出了为解决不良资产营造宽松的外部环境、建立现代企业制度、构建良好的社会信用环境等宏现战略,又提出了坚持实效化解不良资产、采取多种不良资产处置方式等微观策略。     

Income inequality,consumer debt,and prudential regulation: An agent-based approach to study the emergence of crises and financial instability

The paper presents an agent-based model to study the interaction between income inequality and prudential regulations in a macroeconomic framework characterized by consumer debt. Simulation results show that income inequality is detrimental to both macro and financial stability as it leads to higher credit demands, higher unemployment rates, economic volatility, and financial fragility. Besides the importance of consumers' leveraging, deleveraging externalities are found to be equally important for the emergence of crises and financial fragility because of the liquidity risk they entail. Minsky moments are also observed; they are related to consumers' prudential behavior and their beliefs about the macroeconomic conditions. Concerning the policy relevance of our investigation, simulations allow us to highlight that the effectiveness of prudential regulation depends on the phase of the business cycle and that there is not a “one-size-fits-all” regulation. This study emphasizes that regulatory constraints should take into account the features of the economic agents, such as the distribution of income and their willingness to borrow, in addition to the features of the financial sector.