Foreign Direct Investment,Economic Performance and Trade Liberalisation

In a number of influential papers published by V. N. Balasubramanyam and collaborators during the decade of the 1990s, compelling arguments and supporting evidence was presented to indicate that export‐promoting trade and investment strategies attract more and more productive inflows of foreign capital than do import‐substituting strategies. This paper revisits these hypotheses in the context of more recent cross‐section data and reports evidence to suggest that the earlier findings are robust.     

双边抑或多边：论FTA对WTO多边贸易体制的影响

由于多哈发展议程陷入困境,使WTO的多边贸易体制正遭受前所未有的挑战。与WTO多边谈判举步维艰不同的是,自由贸易协定和区域性贸易安排正如火如荼进行。FTA在推动WTO多边贸易体制发展的同时也对其构成了威胁。但是由于FTA本身的局限性,以及当前国际金融危机之下的贸易保护主义盛行,WTO多边贸易体制需要不断的完善,以促进世界经济的恢复与发展。     

Multilateral and Bilateral Loans versus Grants: Issues and Evidence

This paper examines a wide range of issues relating to the mix between loans and grants as well as the degree of concessionality of loans. A number of empirical tests are carried out based on annual panel data over 1970 to 1999 for 22 donor countries and 72 recipient countries. Based on the tests, we observe that for bilateral donors, past grant‐loan mix (and, hence, reflows from past transfers) do not influence the volume of current resource transfers. Our tests also show that the rate of official borrowing by the recipients (and, by deduction, the extent of their past debt burden) is positively influenced by the extent of the concessionality of such loans – irrespective of whether it is in the form of subsidised interest rates or longer grace periods. The paper concludes with a review of the circumstances in which grants, soft loans and non‐concessional loans might have their respective comparative advantage, as well as a discussion of the need, so as to overcome the negative incentive problems of soft loans, for a typical concessional loan package to be separated into two constituent parts. This would enable the recipient to be given the grant component and the option to take from the non‐concessional loan component as much as desired.     

Unemployment and Trade Liberalisation

In contrast to the focus of the public debate over trade liberalisation on job losses there is a widespread view among economists that unemployment and trade issues should be considered separately. This view cannot be justified theoretically, and ignores the growing number of general equilibrium trade models with unemployment. In a simple model with an exogenous wage floor, trade liberalisation can lead to either gains or losses depending on the production technology, severity of the factor market distortion, factor intensities of the industries and conditions in trading partners. Definite results can be derived about gains from liberalising trade with lower wage floors, about relative abundance of the unemployed factor dampening losses when trade is liberalised, and about gains when the good which uses the unemployed factor is exported. The theoretical models are then linked to the policy modelling literature, using the example of recent Australian controversies over liberalisation of trade in automobiles and textiles. It is argued that trade liberalisation would be better advanced by including endogenous employment in trade policy simulation exercises and by discussing employment effects rather than brushing them aside as temporary adjustment problems or regional difficulties.     

Trade Liberalisation and Economic Growth

There has been a long‐held belief that there is an association between economic growth and increased levels of international trade. However, more recent work has questioned this hypothesis and the re‐opening of the debate has identified two key areas of contention. One is the extent to which the effects of openness are conditional on factors omitted from the core regression relationship and hence how the hypothesis is tested. The other is the meaning and measurement of openness and liberalisation. This paper addresses both these areas by exploring the nature of heterogeneity in growth performance among liberalising countries using a difference‐in‐difference approach. The results show that, while in aggregate there appears to be a positive but small impact of trade liberalisation on growth, this masks a huge range of responses. Empirical analysis of this heterogeneity shows that a one‐size‐fits‐all policy is not necessarily the most effective, and suggests a case‐by‐case approach is more appropriate.     

Liberalisation and Protection under Overlapping Free Trade Agreements: Dynamic Interplay between Free Trade Agreements and Investment

Two decades into the most recent wave of regionalism many of its implications remain to be fully understood. A vast literature has explored the impacts of free trade agreements (FTAs) on investment flows, but less attention has been given to how existing patterns of investment alter FTA liberalisation. It is contended here that the dynamic interplay between overlapping FTA areas and the investment sunk in them shapes governments' and firms' positions regarding further FTA liberalisation. During trade negotiations, a country may decide to exclude a sector from FTA liberalisation to prevent (concession prevention) future FTA partners from making similar demands. Concession prevention could also occur when a foreign firm, holding a dominant market position in a host country, relinquishes liberalisation demands in an FTA between host and home countries to prevent its current position being eroded if the host country grants similar (or better) concessions to competing firms from other countries in future FTAs. Conversely, investment sunk into a country's sensitive sector in the territory of partners from previous FTAs could pre‐empt (concession pre‐emption) the protectionist position of that country when it subsequently negotiates FTAs with the investment‐source countries. These arguments were tested in the negotiations around the liberalisation of the automotive industry that Thailand and Malaysia had with Japan in their respective bilateral FTAs. The distinct interaction between investment and the FTAs in which these countries participate resulted either in entrenchment of protectionism in the sector or its liberalisation across subsequent FTAs.     

Regional Trade Agreements versus Global Trade Liberalisation: Implications for a Small Island Developing State

This study undertakes an empirical investigation of the macroeconomic and sectoral impacts of two forms of regional trade agreements vis‐à‐vis global trade liberalisation on a small island country, using Fiji as a case study. In order to capture the feedback effects of such a complex set of policies, we employ a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the Fijian economy to investigate (i) the impact of the Pacific Island Countries Trade Agreement (PICTA), (ii) the impact of PICTA, the Pacific Agreement for Closer Economic Relations (PACER), and the Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs), (iii) the impact of full tariff liberalisation (i.e. tariff removal only), and (iv) the impact of full trade liberalisation, with removal of both tariff and non‐tariff barriers. While PICTA consistently provides the least benefits across a range of macroeconomic indicators including real output, welfare, trade volumes and employment, full trade liberalisation involving the removal of tariff and non‐tariff barriers provides the greatest benefits compared to the other scenarios in terms of real output. However, the latter scenario is outperformed by PICTA, PACER, the EPAs and full tariff liberalisation in terms of welfare effects, trade volumes and employment. The policy implications hold important lessons for developing countries considering trade liberalisation.     

Trade and Market Liberalisation in Eastern Europe

SUMMARY

The question of why multinational companies (MNCs) choose to locate in one region rather than another has been an important topic in IB research for many years, but has recently received even more attention. This paper presents the results of an econometric investigation of the locational determinants of Italian firms in Central and Eastern Europe. Italian firms have been very active investors in the CEE countries. Our results broadly confirm the findings of previous studies, but we also find that both trade liberalisation and market liberalisation are important influences upon the location decision. If the CEE governments wish to attract further (Italian) foreign investment, then further liberalisation of their domestic economies should be a policy priority.     

Revitalising Multilateral Trade Governance

The WTO provides extensive flexibility for members to engage with each other. Using this, WTO members should identify a road map for the future and a work programme to update and expand the rulebook to address trade-distorting nontariff policies that are not or only partially covered by current WTO rules.Expanding the WTO rulebook, accepting greater reciprocity and improving the organisation’s operation are necessary for revitalising the WTO.     

Trade Liberalisation,Economic Development and Poverty Alleviation

In a distinguished career spanning more than four decades, Jagdish Bhagwati has made numerous contributions to both trade theory and trade policy analysis. The current paper focuses on Bhagwati's major contribution to the ongoing debate surrounding the influence of trade liberalisation upon economic development and its potential to alleviate poverty in the world's poorest economies. In order to highlight Bhagwati's contributions in these fields we focus on the arguments developed in two of his numerous landmark publications; first his seminal 1964 paper on the Pure Theory of International Trade and, second, his 2004 book entitled In Defense of Globalization. Although separated in time by some four decades we argue that these two publications, despite their very different characters, each demonstrate beyond doubt the significance of Bhagwati's work in improving our understanding of the true nature of international trade and its potential to address questions of global poverty.     

Trade Liberalisation and Capital Spending by US Manufacturers

This is the first paper to study the impact of long‐term tariff reductions on capital spending by US manufacturers. We investigate fluctuations in investment for approximately 400 different four‐digit industries during the period 1974–2005. Our results indicate that the dismantling of tariff and quota protection has had a stimulatory effect on US manufacturing investment, despite the relatively low average tariff rate that existed at the start of our sample period. However, our findings reveal that reductions in input tariffs rather than output tariffs were the source of this effect, suggesting that better access to foreign inputs rather than increased foreign competition at the output level served as the primary stimulus for increased US manufacturing investment.     

多边贸易体系与国际服务贸易的发展

近年来,国际服务贸易迅速发展,其增长速度超过了同期货物贸易的增长速度,引起了广泛的关注。本文阐明了多边贸易体系对国际服务贸易的推动作用,分析了WTO成立后国际服务贸易发展呈现的新特征,从而指出了我国作为发展中国家服务贸易的发展趋向。     

China and Egypt Work Together to Ensure Bilateral Trade and Investment Ties

Egypt＇s Minister of Trade and industry, Rachid Mohamed paid a week-long visit to China from September 4 to September 11, 2006. During the visit, he met Chinese government officials and business representatives about engaging China in the development of Egyptian industry and attracting Chinese investment, technology and know-how into key industrial projects.     

The Impact of Bilateral Free Trade Agreements on Bilateral Foreign Direct Investment among Developed Countries

Previous studies find that a trade treaty positively impacts foreign direct investment (FDI). But does a trade treaty always have positive effects on FDI? What is the effect of bilateral free trade agreement (FTA) on bilateral FDI among developed countries? Based on the Knowledge‐Capital model, I hypothesize that bilateral FTA has negative effects on bilateral FDI in developed–developed country pairs, but positive effects in developed–developing country pairs. To test this hypothesis empirically, I conduct the within estimator, the Difference‐in‐Difference estimator and the Arellano–Bond estimator with panel data of bilateral FTA and outward FDI in 30 OECD countries and 32 non‐OECD countries between 1982 and 2005. The result supports the hypothesis. The existence of bilateral FTA decreases bilateral FDI in the OECD–OECD country pairs but increases bilateral outward FDI in the OECD–non‐OECD country pairs. The finding of negative effects of bilateral FTA on FDI is robust to different country classifications by gross national income (GNI) per capita and secondary school enrolment. Hence, the results are consistent with what Carr et al. (2001) predicts about the effects of trade cost on FDI in developed–developed country pairs and in developed–developing country pairs.     

金融危机下遏制贸易保护主义的法律对策

在全球金融危机的笼罩下,贸易保护主义卷土重来。20世纪30年代《斯穆特-霍利关税法》导致大萧条与当今全球金融危机催生新一轮贸易保护主义有惊人的相似。为了避免全球贸易危机发生,信守更坚实和稳定的多边贸易体制,加强国家之间的合作,将是应对金融危机蔓延、抵制贸易保护主义的良策。     

On the Path to Trade Liberalisation: Political Regimes in Trade Negotiations

The number of free trade agreements (FTA) has increased substantially since 1990 despite efforts to promote multilateral trade liberalisation. While there is evidence on the determinants of FTA formation, still little is known on the processing of trade agreements, particularly regarding the pre‐implementation duration. This paper fills the research gap by using event data on the negotiation, the signing and the implementation of trade agreements. Duration analysis is employed to examine the connection between regime types and the lengths of the negotiation and the ratification stages. The results support the claim that higher levels of democratisation are associated with shorter negotiations, while political constraints lead to delays. Moreover, the depth of an agreement matters: a higher number of WTO‐X and WTO+ provisions do not only prolong the negotiation stage, but also the subsequent ratification. Against the background of potential anticipation effects of trade agreements, these results are of interest for exporting firms that assess the timing of implementation.     

Trade Liberalisation,Market Structure and the Incentive to Merge

In this article, we consider whether a movement towards freer international trade generates incentives for firms to merge and if so what forms of merger are most profitable. In a linear Cournot framework, we show that a reduction in trade costs may, but will not necessarily, encourage mergers. Both market structure and the level to which trade costs fall are shown to play a decisive role. Domestic mergers will be encouraged only if the product market is not highly concentrated and trade costs fall below a threshold level. International mergers can be encouraged in any market structure, and are generally more profitable than domestic mergers.