A Middle East Free Trade Area: Economic Interdependence and Peace Considered

The Bush administration hopes that through a Middle East Free Trade Area (MEFTA), peace and stability can be achieved through intra‐regional economic cooperation. The current impediments to intra‐regional economic cooperation, however, will make a MEFTA a hub‐and‐spoke trade relationship between the United States and the Middle East. Neoliberal arguments for the interrelation of peace and economic interdependence in the context of the Middle East are then considered.     

Economic Integration in East Asia: An International Input‐Output Analysis

To establish economic and monetary union (EMU) in East Asia, deepening regional integration through international trade is important. The economic interdependence (one of the important criteria for regional integration) study, using macro data does not reflect the indirect effects generated by interactions between different production sectors and different countries. We use the international input‐output (IIO) framework to study the economic interdependence at both macro and production sector levels. We refine the existing methods to reflect exogenous country effect and size effect of the economy. Our study suggests that establishing EMU in East Asia appears to be somewhat premature. However, we can be more optimistic for regional integration at the production sector level in East Asia when including Japan, which will create a basis for EMU in the region.     

Energy and oil in Eastern Europe— Status and prospects

The energy economies of the states in Eastern Europe—East Germany, Poland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Bulgaria and Romania—are in a state of transition.¹ This is just one aspect of their overall transition from communism to more liberal political and economic systems. Future developments of the energy sectors in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union will have important implications for world oil and energy market developments, since these countries comprise, as a group, the world's largest oil and gas producers, and they are the second largest energy consumers in the world.     

Emerging Asia: Decoupling or Recoupling

In this paper, we investigate the degree of real economic interdependence between emerging East Asian and major industrial countries to shed light on the heated debate over the ‘decoupling’ of emerging East Asia. We first document the evolution of macroeconomic interdependence for emerging East Asian economies through changing trade and financial linkages at both the regional and global levels. Then, by employing a panel vector autoregression (VAR) model, we estimate the degree of real economic interdependence before and after the 1997/98 Asian financial crisis. Empirical findings show that real economic interdependence increased significantly in the post‐crisis period, suggesting ‘recoupling’, rather than decoupling, in recent years. Output shocks from major industrial countries have a significant positive effect on emerging East Asian economies. More interestingly, the reverse is also true. Output shocks from emerging East Asia (and China) have a significant positive effect on output in major industrial countries. The result suggests that macroeconomic interdependence between emerging East Asia and industrial countries have become ‘bi‐directional’, defying the traditional notion of the ‘North–South relationship’ as one of ‘uni‐directional’ dependence.     

East european trade with the developing world: soviet diplomatic partner or economic self-interest

Prior to the demise of the Communist system in Eastern Europe, the trade of these countries with the developing world was supportive of Soviet diplomatic aims at least in part. In the late 1950s, correspondence between the trade links of the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe was particularly close. In later periods, the trade of Eastern Europe was less closely aligned with that of the Soviet Union, but there was still evidence that East European trade with the developing world followed upon Soviet goals and initiatives in some instances, indicating the strong possibility of overall Soviet direction. Trade with countries in the Middle East had by far the strongest association for East European trade with that of the Soviet Union.     

全球多边贸易体制下的博弈策略与效益

经济全球化进程加深了国家之间的相互依存,各国进行着多边、区域、双边、单边各个层次的全方位政治经济博弈,国际和国内各种因素相互影响,参与各方最终均获得博弈收益。从结果来看,WTO成功地推进了全球贸易自由化的进程,虽然总体而言成员国都获取了收益,但利益分配并不均衡。从各成员贸易自由化的经验来看,不同的国家在不同的时期和不同的背景之下,其绩效大相径庭。为此,在对美国、欧盟、日本、印度等国在全球多边贸易体制下的博弈策略和效果进行比较的基础上,综述发展中经济体面临的挑战及"反边缘化"努力,提出了中国如何确保从多边博弈中获益。     

“一带一路”背景下制度距离对我国向中东和北非出口贸易影响研究

中东和北非国家是我国"一带一路"倡议的重要合作伙伴,该地区各国经济发展水平和制度环境迥异,在经济制度和政治制度方面与我国存在较大差异。基于全球治理指数和经济自由度指数相关数据,分别计算出我国与中东和北非地区24国的政治制度距离和经济制度距离,并采用2007~2016年我国对该地区的出口贸易数据,借助引力模型实证分析双边制度距离对我国出口贸易的影响及出口潜力情况。结果发现,我国与中东和北非国家政治制度距离和经济制度距离均存在临界值;只有当制度距离超过临界值时才会对我国的出口贸易产生负向影响。通过贸易潜力测算发现,我国对中东和北非部分国家出口贸易潜力巨大。最后,就如何减少双边制度差异提出建议。     

FDI对东亚区域经济一体化的影响研究

文章通过使用1990～2008年度的数据,利用时间序列分析方法对东亚国家的FDI与区域内投资和贸易一体化的关系进行了详细的实证研究。研究结果表明:长期而言,在区域生产网络机制的作用下,FDI的流入将促进东亚区域内国家(地区)之间的贸易和投资流动,有利于推动东亚区域经济一体化。在当前东亚区域经济一体化进展缓慢的背景下,通过一系列激励措施吸引外资,是促进东亚区域经济一体化发展的不错选择。     

Financial Integration in East Asia: An Empirical Investigation

The central objective of this paper is to empirically evaluate the degree of linkages among East Asian equity and bond markets. Using data from the IMF’s Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS), we find that intra‐East Asian financial asset holdings of four East Asian countries – Japan, Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore – are larger than the levels predicted by the financial gravity model. However, our analysis suggests that this result is likely to be driven by intra‐regional trade linkages and reflect those linkages. Therefore, the salient implication for regional policymakers is that they should continue to promote intra‐regional financial integration. This paper also aims to analyse the impact of three different types of country‐specific risks – political, economic and financial risks – on investment from the four countries. This analysis yields a clear positive relationship between destination‐country risk, in particular political risk, and capital inflows.     

The Political Economy of Trade Integration in South Asia: The Role of India

The South Asian regional trade integration process to date has generated only limited enthusiasm. It suffers from significant shortcomings, primarily on account of a very cautious approach adopted to achieve the ultimate objective of ‘free trade’ within the region. In turn, this has led to a fragmentation of the integration process, with some of the partners of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) bloc opting for a speedier and more liberal bilateral process with India. India’s engagement remains the critical feature as the single most important trading partner for almost all the other South Asian countries. However, the dynamics of Indian economic integration initiatives too have been changing rapidly, whereby it is looking increasingly to strengthen its economic relations with the wider Asian region. In this context, the question of India’s willingness to give leadership to carry the rest of South Asia as the bridge that connects the region to East Asia needs to be examined. The current evidence suggests that India has attempted to do so via a host of bilateral and regional arrangements, but that the divergences in strategic interests amongst SAARC countries has left Pakistan on the margins of an evolving scheme of overlapping trade initiatives in South Asia. Thus, while something approximating ‘free trade’ in South Asia appears to be taking shape, it is unlikely to take the form of an inclusive South Asian regional integration process envisaged by SAARC.     

The middle east and the EEC: An analysis of trade flows

The Middle East has become the largest external supplier of imports to the European Community, and is also the EC's largest export market. Rising oll prices have not only affected the value of EC imports from the Middle East, but have also ultimately determined the ability of the Middle Eastern states to pay for Community exports. What are the prospects for the continuing growth of trade between the Community and the Middle East? What would be the effect of a fall in oil prices or of a decline in the EC's dependence on Middle Eastern oil?     

东亚经济一体化的贸易与投资效应

20世纪80年代以来,东亚区域(10+3)经济一体化取得长足的进展,经济区域化给东亚地区带来显著的经济绩效。文章根据区域经济一体化理论,深入地分析了东亚经济区域化带来的区域内贸易和投资效应,并通过计量模型对东亚地区的FDI与贸易的关系进行了检验,发现在东亚FDI与进口和出口都是互补关系,即FDI促进了东亚地区的贸易发展。     

Verlierer(-regionen) der Globalisierung in Deutschland: Wer? Warum? Was tun?

We describe the impact of globalisation across West German regional labour markets. The main losers are the Ruhr area, the Palatinate and Upper Franconia. The main winning regions are located mainly in Bavaria and Swabonia. The German manufacturing sector at large has gained from rising trade exposure to China and Eastern Europe. This is in sharp contrast to the experience of the United States and some European countries. The German experience could be one reason why the political discussion in this country is less prone towards trade protectionism than elsewhere. But policymakers should take the compensation of losers from globalisation more seriously than in the past.     

东亚“10+3”国家农产品国际竞争力分解及比较研究——基于分类农产品的CMS模型

随着东亚地区双边或多边贸易协定的不断增加,经济一体化成为了各国的最终诉求。然而农产品贸易问题却始终是谈判进程的主要阻力之一。本文侧重于对东亚区域内东盟10国和中日韩3国,就劳动密集型和资本密集型农产品分阶段进行恒定市场份额(CMS)的比较分析。得出的主要结论是:东亚地区农产品市场总体需求潜力很大;产业和结构的合理和完善可在一定程度上提高农产品的竞争力;中国农产品出口份额相对较大但主要依靠低廉的价格,并且竞争力逐渐减弱;政府制定的贸易政策和外部机会在未来农产品贸易中发挥着越来越重要的作用,区域经济合作是一种理想的选择方式。     

The Regulation of Professional Migration: Insights from the Health and IT Sectors in ASEAN

This paper develops several indicators to measure the extent and depth of rules governing international migration. It is set in the context of moves towards further liberalisation of services trade and associated labour mobility (Mode 4) under GATS and related regional trading arrangements. Ten Southeast Asian countries at various stages of economic development are examined as a case study, with special reference to health care and information technology. These sectors are priority sectors for regional cooperation in services trade in ASEAN, but were expected to represent opposite extremes in terms of the regulation of migration. The study finds that the more advanced countries tend to have more liberal regimes for international movements of skilled manpower, although there were smaller differences regarding general visa and work permit arrangements. Generic restrictions on mobility were related to trade policies, as well as to direct barriers (often country‐specific) to migration. They included minimum salary requirement, levies on foreign workers, economic needs tests, and limitations related to language, education and job experience. Controls were more extensive in the health care sector, related to social considerations as well as professional organisational interests.     

Fostering intra‐BRICS trade and investment: The increasing role of China in the Brazilian and South African economies

In the past two decades, Brazil, South Africa and China have designed closer economic and political ties. Since the early 2000s, China has become a key economic partner for both countries. International trade and foreign direct investment between the three nations have expanded, and closer political ties have also evolved. This article elaborates on the increasing economic interdependence between Brazil, China, and South Africa addressing challenges and opportunities for all three countries involved.     

建立东亚自由贸易区的中国经济效应研究——基于GTAP模型的实证分析

区域经济一体化在经济全球化的大背景下加速发展,东亚地区为世界上最活跃的经济区域之一。论文应用全球贸易分析(GTAP)模型实证模拟东亚地区建立自由贸易区(FTA)后的经济变化,研究建立东亚自由贸易区后对中国及世界经济的影响。研究结果表明:(1)东亚各成员国之间具有经济互补性,合作前景广阔,建立自由贸易区将有力地改善东亚地区的社会福利,同时区域成员之间也具有贸易创造效应。(2)中国各个产业均会受到不同程度的冲击,中国应重点关注在矿产及资源类、纺织品、电子类及制造业等领域所带来的负面效应。     

Indian ocean rim trade bloc: Prospects and problems

This article advances the view that regional integration among ten nations along the Indian Ocean rim will have positive economic and political consequences for all the members. Emergence of this geographically large area with one-fourth of the human population will be good for financial markets and the global economy as well. Planned regional arrangements will offer major benefits to outsiders, for example, Gulf countries, by stimulating growth and enhancing market forces. Traditional enmity between India and Pakistan, however, and the economic and political adjustments that South Africa is undergoing after the first free election may prevent cooperation in the region, not to mention the fact that the area has deep economic problems with mass poverty and low per capita incomes. Problems aside, there are hopeful signs, both economic and political, that encourage the Indian Ocean rim nations to seriously consider establishing a regional trade bloc. For example, a substantial middle class is emerging in the area. Industrialization is slowly progressing, challenging the dominance of the agricultural sector. India, however, will have to take the initiative in the matter. The size of her economy and her pre-eminence as a regional political force equip India to play the key role in the establishment of a regional agreement in the area.     

贸易是否注定带来和平——以中美关系为例

在我国全方位外交的布局中,有"大国是关键"的说法。而在大国关系中,中美关系可谓重中之重。随着近年来中美经贸关系的迅猛发展,两国间已经形成了相当程度上的经济相互依赖。贸易和平论者从经济领域出发,将贸易视为推动两国政治间合作、维持和平稳定关系的催化剂,然而现实情况却是:一方面,经济全球化进程大大地推动了国际贸易在全球的拓展,国际合作在不断增多;另一方面,与贸易相关的冲突和争端仍继续存在,甚至有所扩大。贸易能否成为促使中美和平发展的助推器不能妄下断言,只有当双方对于国家安全和经济利益的判断都是积极的时候,才可能实现互利共赢的经贸关系。     

FTA betwee China and Korea

Under the regional cooperation being a main trend of the World’s economic development,East Asia should make China and Korea as a breakthrough,build Sino-Korean free trade district,and then push the development of the whole East Asia’s regional economic cooperation.Both China and Korea want to contribute to FTA and keep the dose geographic,humanistic and trade relation.Both countries’ political relation has been improving.In the IT industry,the focus of sino-Korean FTA,sino-Korean IT industries develop quickly and possess the cooperative basis.While in the FTA’s construction,IT industries’ cooperation faces the obstacles:Sino-Korean economic nationalism; the existence of huge china trade deficit for sino-Korean trade;the copyright dispute in the software development.Sino-Korea must take the corresponding measures in order to push the sino-Korean substantial development.