RISK AND UNCERTAINTY IN CENTRAL BANK SIGNALS: AN ANALYSIS OF MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE MINUTES

This paper considers the signalling aspect of monetary policy. We introduce a heuristic framework for the study of signal uncertainty, and use this to analyse the signal uncertainty implicit in the communications of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). Our findings suggest that frequencies of key terms expressing signal uncertainty in MPC minutes may either reflect the degree of confidence implicit in MPC deliberations, or offer evidence for the presence of an irreducible kind of signal uncertainty that shows up as white noise, casting doubt on the soundness of the various qualitative uncertainty indices found in the literature.     

VALUATION OF BARRIER OPTIONS VIA A GENERAL SELF‐DUALITY

Classical put–call symmetry relates the price of puts and calls under a suitable dual market transform. One well‐known application is the semistatic hedging of path‐dependent barrier options with European options. This, however, in its classical form requires the price process to observe rather stringent and unrealistic symmetry properties. In this paper, we develop a general self‐duality theorem to develop valuation schemes for barrier options in stochastic volatility models with correlation.     

THE TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES AS A GAUSSIAN RANDOM FIELD

A simple model of the term structure of interest rates is introduced in which the family of instantaneous forward rates evolves as a continuous Gaussian random field. A necessary and sufficient condition for the associated family of discounted zero-coupon bond prices to be martingales is given, permitting the consistent pricing of interest rate contingent claims. Examples of the pricing of interest-rate caps and the situation when the Gaussian random field may be viewed as a deterministic time change of the standard Brownian sheet are discussed.     

MANY CAPITAL–OUTPUT RATIOS INCREASING WITH THE INTEREST RATE: AN INDUSTRY‐LEVEL ANALYSIS

Whether there be few or many alternative techniques and whether there be fixed capital or only circulating capital involved, the industry‐level capital–output ratios can increase with the rate of interest.     

A PROPERTY TAXATION MECHANISM WITH SELF‐ASSESSMENT

This paper analyzes a variant of the classic idea for property taxation based on owner's self‐assessment. To induce reporting of market values tax authorities announce to purchase some of the properties randomly at declared values under certain conditions. These conditions are based on properties of the distribution of declared values. It is proven that a unique Nash equilibrium of this taxation game among tax payers exists in which all of them report market values and tax authorities do not purchase any property.     

CENTRAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET DEFICITS AND EX ANTE REAL LONG TERM INTEREST RATES IN ITALY: AN EMPIRICAL NOTE FOR 1955-1989

This paper empirically investigates the impact of central government budget deficits upon interest rates in Italy. The period studied runs from 1955 to 1989, and annual data are used. The interest rate measure is the ex ante real rate of interest. It is found, using an instrumental variables technique to control for the endogeneity of the budget deficit, that the budget deficit raises the ex ante real interest rate in Italy.     

PRICE‐ADMISSIBILITY CONDITIONS FOR ARBITRAGE‐FREE LINEAR PRICE FUNCTION MODELS FOR THE TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES

To assure price admissibility—that all bond prices, yields, and forward rates remain positive—we show how to control the state variables within the class of arbitrage‐free linear price function models for the evolution of interest rate yield curves over time. Price admissibility is necessary to preclude cash‐and‐carry arbitrage, a market imperfection that can happen even with a risk‐neutral diffusion process and positive bond prices. We assure price admissibility by (i) defining the state variables to be scaled partial sums of weighted coefficients of the exponential terms in the bond pricing function, (ii) identifying a simplex within which these state variables remain price admissible, and (iii) choosing a general functional form for the diffusion that selectively diminishes near the simplex boundary. By assuring that prices, yields, and forward rates remain positive with tractable diffusions for the physical and risk‐neutral measures, an obstacle is removed from the wider acceptance of interest rate methods that are linear in prices.     

AN EVALUATION OF PROCESS‐ORIENTED SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORKS

Supply chain management (SCM) is implemented by integrating corporate functions using business processes within and across companies. Several process‐oriented frameworks for SCM have been proposed but only two of these provide sufficient detail to enable implementation. We evaluate the Supply‐Chain Operations Reference (SCOR) framework and The Global Supply Chain Forum (GSCF) framework using four criteria and identify their relative strengths and weaknesses.     

AN INVESTIGATION OF THE VALUE OF CROSS‐DOCKING FOR SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT

Cross‐docking is the practice of transferring materials from an incoming shipment directly to an outgoing shipment without storing them at the transfer point. This essentially eliminates the inventory‐holding function of a warehouse and can reduce supply chain costs. We investigate the value of one type of cross‐docking in a variety of supply chain environments.     

THE MOBILIZATION OF HUMAN RESOURCES AS AN EFFECT OF THE DEPLETION OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL ASSETS

In this paper, the growth process is not fed by the accumulation of productive assets (physical and/or human capital, knowledge etc.), but by the depletion of environmental or social resources, which induces individuals to increase their labor supply in order to consume more of the market goods that substitute for the depleted resources. Hence, production is expanded, thus eroding the resources’ ability to regenerate, which decreases with aggregate production. Within this context, the ‘green’ net national product is derived and it is shown how a regulatory authority should manage the resources for achieving Pareto‐optimality.     

STEADY‐STATE GROWTH AND DISTRIBUTION WITH AN ENDOGENOUS DIRECTION OF TECHNICAL CHANGE

A model of labor‐constrained accumulation and economically directed technical progress has a stable steady state at which the class distribution of income is invariant with respect to population and saving parameters yet sensitive to workers’ stances in wage bargaining and to the tax and transfer policies of a redistributive state.     

CATALOG RETAILER IN‐STOCK PERFORMANCE: AN ASSESSMENT OF CUSTOMER SERVICE LEVELS

The purpose of this article is to study the level of “in‐stock” customer service performance being offered in the catalog channel of distribution. The article provides benchmark information for the catalog industry. More importantly, the article serves as one test of the effectiveness of the modern supply chain, where the expectation is for near perfect orders. Customer service levels are studied by using an empirical observation methodology in which catalog retailer's in‐stock performance was measured. Comparisons are made across item type, season, retailer type, and days from catalog receipt. Overall, items were out‐of‐stock during 15.9% of all checkpoints, compared to an 11.8% stock‐out rate in an earlier study of bricks and mortar retailers.     

澳门新东方集团有限公司董事长钟小健：冒险家的游戏人生

在钟小健看来,冒险是一种瘾,一种游戏,人生就犹如游戏。＂做生意不是钱的问题,关键是个游戏。有的人天生就喜欢做生意,猫喜欢抓老鼠也不吃老鼠,不是吗？＂     

从“五普”资料看经济技术开发区劳动参与特点

以大连经济技术开发区为例,分析了我国经济技术开发区的劳动参与特点,认为目前开发区劳动参与率较高,而从业人员文化素质较低,从业人员的产业和行业分布不均,失业人员状况也不尽如人意。     

RETAIL ON‐SHELF PERFORMANCE OF ADVERTISED ITEMS: AN ASSESSMENT OF SUPPLY CHAIN EFFECTIVENESS AT THE POINT OF PURCHASE

In the retail environment, one key prerequisite to satisfying customers is to have the product available, on the shelf, when and where the customer expects to find it. The study reported here evaluated the on‐shelf stock performance of three distinct types of retailers–mass merchandisers, category killers, and grocery retailers. Overall on‐shelf performance for advertised items was just 83.5% percent. Follow‐up interviews with store managers indicate that availability problems are often the result of merchandising or store operations issues and not necessarily logistics or warehousing problems. However, in today's supply chain world, the real measure of success is satisfaction all the way to the customer's trunk.     

INTEREST RATE,DEBT, DISTRIBUTION AND CAPITAL ACCUMULATION IN A POST‐KALECKIAN MODEL

In the present paper we extend Lavoie's (Metroeconomica, 1995, vol. 46, pp. 146–177) ‘Minsky–Steindl’ model, building our analysis on a Kaleckian distribution and growth model which has already taken into account distribution effects of interest rate variations on the short‐run equilibrium. Into this model the effects of debt and debt services are explicitly introduced and the effects of interest rate variations on the short‐ and the long‐run equilibrium are derived. It is shown that the effects of interest rate variations on the endogenously determined equilibrium values of the model not only depend on the parameter values in the saving and investment functions but also on the interest elasticity of distribution and on initial conditions with respect to the interest rate and the debt–capital ratio.