In‐Work Credits in the UK and the US

In‐work credits grew in popularity worldwide during the late 1990s and 2000s as a means of reforming welfare systems in ways that could both encourage work and reduce poverty. This paper reviews the role of in‐work tax credits in the UK and the US, what is known and remains to be known about their impacts and distributional consequences, and the possibilities for reform. Evidence is clear that in‐work credits reduce poverty and can encourage lone parents to work, but have minimal impacts, in aggregate, on second earners. Spending on in‐work credits has grown in the UK, but there have been two major overhauls of the way these are structured so that, on current plans, the UK will not have an identifiable in‐work credit by 2023. In the US, in‐work assistance has grown in generosity and reach since the 1980s, thanks to broad political support for the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and the (less‐targeted) Child Tax Credit. Future debates in the UK should focus on the rise of in‐work poverty, particularly amongst couples, with some needed focus on the design of in‐work benefits, a debate where economic analysis and evidence should have a major role to play. In the US, the policy discussion should be about whether to increase substantially the EITC for those without children, and how best to maintain or expand the credit's generosity for those with children.     

Why Are Mothers Working Longer Hours in Austria than in Germany? A Comparative Microsimulation Analysis*

Labour force participation rates of mothers in Austria and Germany are similar; however, full‐time employment rates are much higher among Austrian mothers. In order to find out to what extent these differences can be attributed to differences in the tax‐transfer system, we perform a comparative microsimulation exercise. After estimating structural labour supply models for both countries, we interchange two important institutional characteristics of the two countries ‐ namely, (i) the definition of the tax unit within the personal income tax and (ii) the parental leave benefit scheme. As our analysis shows, differences in mothers’employment patterns can partly be explained by the different tax systems: while Germany has a system of joint taxation with income splitting for married couples, Austria taxes everyone individually, which leads to lower marginal tax rates for secondary earners than in the German system.     

The Labour Market Impact of the Working Families' Tax Credit

In October 1999, the working families' tax credit (WFTC) replaced family credit as the main package of in‐work support for families with children. Among a range of stated aims, the WFTC is intended to‘… improve work incentives, encouraging people without work to move into employment'. In this paper, we consider the impact of WFTC on hours and participation. To simulate labour supply responses, we use a discrete behavioural model of household labour supply with controls for fixed and childcare costs, and unobserved heterogeneity. In simulation, we experiment with a number of scenarios regarding the take‐up of the credit, entry wage level and hourly childcare price. We find participation rates among single mothers to increase by around 2.2 percentage points for the base‐case scenario, while for married women participation rates are modelled to fall. Our simulation results indicate a small increase in overall participation of around 30,000 individuals.     

Gender implications of current social security reforms

This paper examines some current reforms to social security benefits / tax credits and changes to employment provisions from a gender perspective. It analyses tensions between the trend towards ‘individualisation’ and growing emphasis on the couple/household as a policy focus. New tax credits change the distribution of resources within many couples. Incentives to work for some second earners should improve; but extending in‐work subsidies to childless couples raises questions. Payment of child tax credit to the ‘main carer’ has been welcomed, though the implications of joint ownership of tax credits are unclear, and joint assessment will be extended. Many claimants' partners can now access employment services. However, this is aimed at reducing the number of workless households rather than expanding individuals' opportunities. Joint claims for jobseeker's allowance, and work‐focused interviews, involve increased responsibilities for partners but no right of access to individual income. A more consistent critical analysis of reform from a gender perspective is required.     

How Taxes and Welfare Benefits Affect Work Incentives: A Life‐Cycle Perspective

Personal taxes and benefits affect the incentive to work over the life cycle by altering income–age profiles, insuring against adverse shocks and changing the returns to human capital. In this paper, we show how a life‐cycle perspective alters our impression of how the UK tax and benefit system affects women's work incentives. Given that actual longitudinal data conflate age effects, cohort effects and policy effects, and, in the UK, are not available covering the full life cycle, we use simulated data produced by a rich, dynamic structural model of female labour supply and human capital that incorporates family formation and fertility. We find that individuals experience considerable variability in work incentives across life that outweighs the variability across individuals. Changes in the presence of children and a partner, as well as the level of any partner's earnings, are key to explaining these patterns: work incentives vary dramatically depending on family composition and the earnings of any partner, especially for the lower‐skilled, and most women experience a number of different family types during the course of their lives.     

Comparing in‐work benefits and the reward to work for families with children in the US and the UK

The income transfer systems for low‐income families in the US and the UK try both to reduce poverty and to encourage work. In‐work benefits are a key part of both countries' strategies through the earned income tax credit and the working families' tax credit (and predecessors) respectively. But tax credits are only one part of the whole tax and welfare system. In‐work benefits, taxes and welfare benefits combine in both countries to provide good financial incentives for lone parents to do minimum‐wage work, but poorer incentives to increase earnings further. But direct comparisons of budget constraints hide important points of detail. First, not enough is known about what determines take‐up of in‐work benefits. Second, the considerable differences in assessment and payment mechanisms and frequency between EITC and WFTC mean that low‐income families in the US and the UK may respond very differently to apparently similar financial incentives.     

Childcare Assistance: Are Subsidies or Tax Credits Better?

We evaluate price subsidies and tax credits for childcare. We focus on partnered women's labour supply, household income and welfare, demand for childcare and government expenditure. Using Australian data, we estimate a joint, discrete structural model of labour supply and childcare demand. We introduce two methodological innovations – a more flexible quantity constraint that total formal and informal childcare hours are at least as large as the mother's labour supply and the explicit inclusion of maternal childcare in the utility function as a proxy for child development. We find that tax credits are more effective than subsidies in terms of increasing average hours worked and household income. However, tax credits disproportionately benefit wealthier and more educated women. Price subsidies, while less efficient, have positive redistributional effects.     

The Effect of Financial Incentives on Labour Supply: Evidence for Lone Parents from Microsimulation and Quasi‐Experimental Evaluation*

The aim of this paper is to analyse the work incentive effects of a change in the Australian tax and transfer system on lone parents in July 2000. To evaluate the effect of the total change only, microsimulation can be used; but for a subgroup of lone parents, a few components of this policy change can be analysed through two alternative approaches — microsimulation and quasi‐experimental evaluation. Both approaches examine the effects on the probability of employment and on average working hours. The results from microsimulation show that the combined changes introduced in July 2000 — involving reduced withdrawl rates, changed family payments and lower income tax rates — have increased labour supply for lone parents to a moderate extent. The estimated effect on average working hours when using microsimulation is very close to the effect estimated in a quasi‐experimental approach using matching techniques to control for alternative influences.     

Abolishing the Tax‐Free Threshold in Australia: Simulating Alternative Reforms*

This paper examines the role of the tax‐free income tax threshold in a complex tax and transfer system consisting of a range of taxes and benefits, each with its own taper rates and thresholds. Considering a tax and benefit system with benefit taper rates whereby some benefits are received by income groups other than those at the bottom of the distribution, it is suggested that a tax‐free threshold is not a necessary requirement to achieve redistribution. Four alternative policy changes, each involving the elimination of the tax‐free threshold in Australia and designed to achieve approximate revenue neutrality, were examined using the Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator. A range of implications were examined, including labour supply responses to tax changes and the effects of policy changes on inequality and social welfare. The results demonstrate that it is possible to eliminate the tax‐free threshold under approximate overall revenue and distribution neutrality, but that it is impossible to improve labour supply incentives at the same time. In order to achieve improved incentives, either revenue or distribution neutrality has to be sacrificed.     

Changes in Income Distributions and the Role of Tax‐Benefit Policy During the Great Recession: An International Perspective

In this paper, we examine the impact of the economic crisis and the policy reaction on inequality and relative poverty in four European countries: France, Germany, Ireland and the UK. The period examined, 2008–13, was one of great economic turmoil, yet it is unclear whether changes in inequality and poverty rates over this time period were mainly driven by changes in market income distributions or by tax‐benefit policy reforms. We disentangle these effects by producing counterfactual (‘no reform') scenarios using tax‐benefit microsimulation and representative household surveys for each country. For the first stage of the Great Recession, we find that the policy reaction contributed to stabilising or even decreasing inequality and relative poverty in the UK, France and, especially, Ireland. Market income changes nonetheless pushed up inequality and relative poverty in France. Relative poverty increased in Germany as a result of policy responses combined with market income changes. Subsequent policy reforms, in the later stage of the crisis, had markedly different cross‐country effects, decreasing overall poverty in France, increasing it in Ireland, and giving mixed effects for different subgroups in Germany and the UK.     

Multi‐Factor Effective Corporate Taxation,Firms’ Mark‐Ups and Tax Incidence: Evidence from OECD Countries

This paper provides novel evidence on the multi‐factor effective marginal tax rates (EMTRs) for a sample of 17 OECD countries and 11 manufacturing sectors. We use a single framework encompassing capital, labour and energy taxes. Our cross‐country/cross‐sector approach allows us to analyse the contributions of these input factors to the effective tax borne by firms, taking explicitly into account their degree of substitution, their tax incidence and the role of mark‐ups. We find that the labour tax plays a particularly important role in the overall level of the EMTR and that the presence of mark‐ups can significantly alter the levels of the multi‐factor EMTR, although without significantly altering the ranking of countries. We also find that the bulk of the variation in EMTRs is across countries, rather than across sectors (within countries).     

Universal Credit: A Preliminary Analysis of Its Impact on Incomes and Work Incentives*

Alongside a series of cuts that will reduce welfare spending by £18 billion per year by 2014–15, the UK government announced in November 2010 plans to integrate and simplify means‐tested welfare benefits and in‐work tax credits for working‐age adults into a single programme, to be known as Universal Credit and to be phased in from October 2013. The aims were to make it easier for claimants to claim benefits, to make the gains to work more transparent and to reduce the amount spent on administration and lost in fraud and error. More households will see entitlements rise from the move to Universal Credit considered in isolation than will see entitlements fall; in aggregate, entitlements will rise by nearly £1.1 billion a year. Low‐income families will see their entitlements rise by more than high‐income families, on average, and couples will gain more from the reform, on average, than single‐adult families, especially if there are also children in the family. In general, those facing the weakest incentive to work at all, or the weakest incentive to increase earnings, see their incentives strengthened, including those with very low earnings and hours worked per week and those who at present experience simultaneous withdrawal of multiple means‐tested benefits and tax credits. But a Council Tax Benefit that operates separately from Universal Credit, and that has rules that vary across English local authorities, could easily undermine many of the supposed advantages of Universal Credit.     

Funding a PAYG pension system: the case of Italy

Italy is characterised by a mature pay‐as‐you‐go social security system and by particularly adverse population projections. Given these trends, the social security contribution rate is expected to increase above its current high level. This hinders the development of employer‐provided pension funds and introduces a significant wedge between labour cost and earnings that discourages both labour demand and labour supply. Any proposal to reduce payroll taxes and to reform the system in the direction of partial funding has to cope with the state of Italian public finances. Italy has to comply with the Stability and Growth Pact that imposes constraints on budget deficit and debt trends. Using micro data from the Bank of Italy's Survey of Household Income and Wealth and official population projections, we estimate future employment trends under different demographic and macroeconomic scenarios and compute the cost of the transition. We show that it would be substantially reduced if positive effects on employment were induced by the payroll tax reduction.     

The Informativeness of Dividends and Associated Tax Credits

This paper investigates the informativeness of dividends and the associated tax credits with respect to earnings persistence. After confirming that dividend‐paying firms have more persistent earnings than non‐dividend‐paying firms, we show that the taxation status of the dividend is also important. Firms that pay dividends with a full tax credit attached have significantly more persistent earnings than firms that pay dividends which carry no associated tax credit. Consistent with higher levels of tax credits identifying more mature firms, those paying dividends with full tax credits have significantly less persistent losses than firms that pay dividends with only partial tax credits. Further, market pricing tests confirm that the incremental information in dividends and tax credits contributes to reductions in market mispricing of the persistence of earnings and earnings components. Our results are robust to alternative model specifications and controlling for dividend size and firm age.     

Employment Quota System and Labour Market Outcomes of Individuals with Disabilities: Empirical Evidence from South Korea

To date, only a few studies have attempted to evaluate the effectiveness of disability employment quota systems using structural changes in policies. This study exploits the structural changes in South Korea's disability employment quota system that took place in 2004 and 2006 to expand the current disability policy evaluation literature. We separate the effect of these changes in the quota system into their effect on the probability of labour force participation and their effect on the probability of employment (after controlling for selection into the labour market). We also study the extent to which the changes – which included increasing the number of employers covered by the quota system, the number of jobs available to individuals with disabilities and the financial incentives for employing individuals with disabilities – have affected job satisfaction among individuals with disabilities. Our results suggest that the changes in the quota system may have increased labour force participation but have had a limited positive impact on the probability of employment among people with disabilities in South Korea. Further, compulsory hiring and expanded opportunities have not substantially affected the level of job satisfaction observed among employees with disabilities relative to their non‐disabled counterparts.     

Nasdaq ex‐day behavior: An out‐of‐sample test

We test various explanations of the ex‐dividend day price anomaly using Nasdaq‐listed firms. Similar to NYSE‐listed firms, on average the prices of Nasdaq‐listed firms drop by less than the dividend amount. However, the average Nasdaq price‐drop is substantially smaller than what existing theories would predict and translates to an imputed dividend tax rate that is double the maximum tax rate. We thus find little support for the tax hypothesis. We also find little support for the short‐term trading hypothesis and various other explanations. The significant disconnect we document between Nasdaq dividends and price changes seems to support the “free dividends fallacy.”     

Strategies and dividend imputation: the effect of foreign and domestic ownership on average effective tax rates

This study examines how dividend imputation affects the incentive of New Zealand firms to minimize tax. By effectively eliminating double taxation on company income, imputation reduces firms’ incentives to engage in costly tax minimization strategies. Before September 1993, resident and nonresident shareholders were treated differently under New Zealand’s imputation system. Because imputation credits cannot be passed to shareholders unless dividends are paid, we expect firms to pursue different tax paying strategies depending on their level of foreign ownership and their dividend payout ratios. After September 1993 when imputation credits were extended to nonresident portfolio shareholders, we expect that firms with high foreign ownership and high dividend payouts would have less incentive to minimize tax. Our results provide some support for these expectations.     

Response of Tax Credit Claims to Tax Enforcement: Evidence from a Quasi‐Experiment in Chile

Diesel in Chile receives different tax treatments depending on its use. If diesel is used in industrial activities, the diesel taxes paid can be fully used as a credit against VAT, but if it is used in freight or public transportation – basically trucks and buses – only a fraction of diesel taxes paid can be claimed as a tax credit for VAT payments. As a result of this different tax treatment, firms have incentives to use ‘tax‐exempted’ diesel in activities requiring ‘non‐tax‐exempted’ diesel. This tax wedge therefore generates an opportunity for tax evasion, especially for firms with multiple economic activities, one of them being transport. In this paper, we analyse the impact of a tax enforcement programme implemented by the Chilean Internal Revenue Service (IRS), where letters requiring information about diesel purchases and use and vehicle ownership were sent to around 200 firms in 2003. Using different empirical strategies to consider the non‐randomness of the selection of firms, the empirical results show consistently that firms receiving a letter decreased their diesel tax credits by around 10 per cent.     

An empirical examination of the effect of dividend taxation on asset pricing and returns in Germany

This research finds evidence that required pretax returns on German stocks are unchanged as a result of the enactment of a law in Germany providing shareholders with tax credits for dividends received. In the most recent time interval, higher risk-adjusted pretax returns are discovered on high-yielding German stocks. These findings imply that the effect of the tax credits has been more than offset by other factors.     

Means Testing and Retirement Choices in Europe: A Comparison of the British and Danish Systems*

We develop a simulation model of household behaviour in which both the consumption/saving and labour/leisure choices are endogenous. This model is used to explore the effects of the UK and Danish state tax and benefit systems on the labour supply of workers aged 50 or over. We find that, in broad terms, differences in labour force participation can be accounted for by differences in benefit structures. Furthermore, our simulations suggest that the UK system is preferred by young people while the Danish arrangement – which imposes a larger tax burden and provides larger welfare benefits – is chosen by people of 50 or older. Notably, people older than 60 are in the majority in the simulated population. The Danish system does not promote notably greater equality over the lifetime, but it does underpin a higher level of consumption for people of 50 or older.