A Gravity Model of Mortality Rates for Two Related Populations

Abstract

The mortality rate dynamics between two related but different-sized populations are modeled consistently using a new stochastic mortality model that we call the gravity model. The larger population is modeled independently, and the smaller population is modeled in terms of spreads (or deviations) relative to the evolution of the former, but the spreads in the period and cohort effects between the larger and smaller populations depend on gravity or spread reversion parameters for the two effects. The larger the two gravity parameters, the more strongly the smaller population’s mortality rates move in line with those of the larger population in the long run. This is important where it is believed that the mortality rates between related populations should not diverge over time on grounds of biological reasonableness. The model is illustrated using an extension of the Age-Period-Cohort model and mortality rate data for English and Welsh males representing a large population and the Continuous Mortality Investigation assured male lives representing a smaller related population.     

The Impact of Systematic Trend and Uncertainty on Mortality and Disability in a Multistate Latent Factor Model for Transition Rates

Multiple state functional disability models do not generally include systematic trend and uncertainty. We develop and estimate a multistate latent factor intensity model with transition and recovery rates depending on a stochastic frailty factor to capture trend and uncertainty. We estimate the model parameters using U.S. Health and Retirement Study data between 1998 and 2012 with Monte Carlo maximum likelihood estimation method. The model shows significant reductions in disability and mortality rates during this period and allows us to quantify uncertainty in transition rates arising from the stochastic frailty factor. Recovery rates are very sensitive to the stochastic frailty. There is an increase in expected future lifetimes as well as an increase in future healthy life expectancy. The proportion of lifetime spent in disability on average remains stable with no strong support in the data for either morbidity compression or expansion. The model has widespread application in costing of government-funded aged care and pricing and risk management of long-term-care insurance products.     

融资模式对商业银行风险的影响:一个文献综述

次贷危机前,随着金融脱媒的快速发展,西方国家商业银行的融资模式已经发生变化,零售存款的比重逐渐下降,非存款融资占比不断提高,商业银行越来越倾向于以货币市场和资本市场金融创新为支撑的短期批发融资。本文对商业银行融资模式及其对银行风险影响的文献进行梳理,厘清商业银行融资模式的内涵和分类,分析融资模式对银行风险影响的机理,综述现有实证研究的不同研究方法和结论,以期对我国商业银行融资模式变化及对银行风险的影响提供参考。     

网络环境对传统会计模式影响的探讨

新技术的迅速发展使网络经济应运而生,网络环境具有知识化、虚拟化两大特性.本文从对会计人员职业判断的要求、会计职能向决策型转变、对会计核算的影响以及会计报表创新等四方面全面论述网络环境对传统会计模式产生的影响.     

网络虚拟货币对货币供求的影响及效应分析

虚拟货币不是真正的货币。只要真实货币与虚拟货币处于两个不同的市场,虚拟货币就不可能引发现实的通货膨胀,虚拟货币的发行也不会对货币发行产生严重冲击。但是,目前虚拟货币已经不满足于"虚拟"世界,逐渐进入现实流通领域。我们应当正视虚拟货币对货币供求的负面影响。中央银行需要构建专门应用于网络虚拟货币的新型交易平台,建立网络消费者虚拟资金存款账户,保证中央银行调控网络虚拟货币的力度和弹性。     

A General Procedure for Constructing Mortality Models

Recently a large number of new mortality models have been proposed to analyze historic mortality rates and project them into the future. Many of these suffer from being over-parametrized or have terms added in an ad hoc manner that cannot be justified in terms of demographic significance. In addition, poor specification of a model can lead to period effects in the data being wrongly attributed to cohort effects, which results in the model making implausible projections. We present a general procedure for constructing mortality models using a combination of a toolkit of functions and expert judgment. By following the general procedure, it is possible to identify sequentially every significant demographic feature in the data and give it a parametric structural form. We demonstrate using U.K. mortality data that the general procedure produces a relatively parsimonious model that nevertheless has a good fit to the data.     

A Re-Examination of the Joint Mortality Functions

Abstract

Mortality analysis involving multiple lives is easily one of the more complicated aspects in the theory of life contingencies. In this paper, we re-investigate joint mortality functions and in particular, we examine an assertion that relates the joint-life and last-survivor random variables. This common assertion states that the sum of the lifetimes of the joint-life and the last-survivor statuses is equal to the sum of the lifetimes of the single statuses. However, we show that this assertion is not precisely correct. We therefore offer a modification to the statuses definitions so that this common assertion holds.     

Asymmetric Impact of Oil Price Shock on Stock Market in China: A Combination Analysis Based on SVAR Model and NARDL Model

This article integrates the SVAR model and nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model to analyze the long-run and short-run asymmetric effect of structural oil price shocks on the Chinese stock market. We reveal that the demand-side shocks of oil price have a significant impact on the Chinese stock market in both short and long run, but the supply shock is an exception. In terms of asymmetric nature, there is no evidence of asymmetric impact when it refers to the supply shock and the oil-specific demand shock on stock market, and only the aggregate demand shock has asymmetric effect in short run.     

基于自由现金流管理视角的创值动因解析模型研究

以创值为目标、(自由)现金流为对象的现金流创值财务学要解决的主要问题是企业如何从(自由)现金流的角度进行财务管理从而实现价值最大化的目标。本文借鉴拉巴波特模型和杜邦分析系统的思想构建自由现金流管理视角的创值动因解析模型,为企业精细化地进行现金流管理提供一个有价值的分析工具。依据创值动因解析模型的分析结果,企业可以有针对性的采取相应的财务管理措施,实现价值创造。     

Analyzing determinants of bond yield spreads with Bayesian Model Averaging

This paper analyzes determinants of country default risk in emerging markets, reflected by sovereign yield spreads. The results reported so far in the literature are heterogeneous with respect to significant explanatory variables. This could indicate a high degree of uncertainty about the “true” regression model. We use Bayesian Model Averaging as the model selection method in order to find the variables which are most likely to determine credit risk. We document that total debt, history of recent default, currency depreciation, and growth rate of foreign currency reserves as well as market sentiments are the key drivers of yield spreads.     

The Processing of Non-Anticipated Information in Financial Markets: Analyzing the Impact of Surprises in the Employment Report

This paper delineates the simultaneous impact of non-anticipated information on mean and variance of the intraday return process by including appropriate variables accounting for the news flow into both the mean and the variance function. This allows us to differentiate between the consistent price reaction to surprising news and the traders' uncertainty about the precise price impact of this information. Focussing on the US employment report, we find that headline information is almost instantaneously incorporated into T-bond futures prices. Nevertheless, large surprises, and `bad' news in particular, create considerable uncertainty. In contrast, if surprises in related headlines cross-validate each other, less room for differences of opinion is left and hence volatility is decreased.     

A Neural Network Approach for Analyzing Small Business Lending Decisions

In this paper, we apply the neural network method to small business lending decisions. We use the neural network to classify the loan applications into the groups of acceptance or rejection, and compare the model results with the actual decisions made by loan officers. Data were collected from a leading bank in Central New York. The sample contains important financial statement and business information of borrowers and the loan officers' decisions. We conduct the network training on the data sample and find that the neural network has a stronger discriminating power for classifying the acceptance and rejection groups than traditional parametric and nonparametric classifiers. The results show that the neural network model has a high predictive ability. Our findings suggest that neural networks can be a very useful tool for enhancing small-business lending decisions and reducing loan processing time and costs.     

关于出口税收筹划定量分析模型的一点说明--兼与王琳女士商榷

笔者于1 997年发表<出口税收筹划的定量分析>一文,①由于是尝试性的,所以难免出现一些错误的东西,还需要进一步完善.王琳女士近期发表的文章<对出口货物按离岸价计算免、抵、退税额的若干思考--兼与陈红伟一文商榷>②,使笔者受益匪浅,更得到了不少启发.不过,王琳女士对笔者文章的几点评议,却值得讨论,特复之,以求共识.     

A Note on Option Pricing for the Constant Elasticity of Variance Model

We study the arbitrage free optionpricing problem for the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model. To treatthestochastic aspect of the CEV model, we direct attention to the relationship between the CEV modeland squared Bessel processes. Then we show the existence of a unique equivalentmartingale measure and derive the Cox's arbitrage free option pricing formulathrough the properties of squared Bessel processes. Finally we show that the CEVmodel admits arbitrage opportunities when it is conditioned to be strictlypositive.     

A Model for Studying the Effect of EMU on European Yield Curves

In January 1999, the European monetary union (EMU) was formally launched with 11 member countries. However, before May 1998 there was considerable uncertainty about who would join EMU, and whether the project would start on time. When a monetary union is formed, exchange rates between the member countries are irrevocably fixed, and yield spreads stemming from exchange-rate risk are eliminated. As a direct consequence, EMU affected the prices of long-term bonds well before 1999, but quantifying this effect can be difficult when there is uncertainty about the monetary union. We address these issues and develop a bond-pricing model which explicitly takes into account that a country may join a monetary union at a future, unspecified date. The empirical results show that a narrow EMU, consisting of Germany, France and the Benelux countries, has been priced with almost 100% probability throughout the period 1995–1998, whereas, on average, the implied probability of joining EMU has been somewhat lower for the other EU countries. However, in the period leading up to May 1998, the estimated probabilities have increased considerably for the countries that joined EMU in January 1999.     

中国商业银行经营效率分析——三阶段DEA之应用

本文首次运用Fried et al.(2002)所提出的三阶段DEA分析法对2001~2006年中国商业银行效率体系进行实证研究,调整环境变量与随机干扰等因素的影响,以期能对中国商业银行的经营效率进行更准确的评估。在此基础上,分析了其整体经营效率的动态变化并比较分析了商业银行在调整服务品质量变量与去除统计影响前后运行效率之间的差异。分析发现我国商业银行整体入世以来,不论是在规模扩张上,还是在理财产品创新与服务方面等经营效率上都取得了明显的进步。     

企业间网络功能和效率边界的分析——对Williamson治理模式选择模型的修正

企业间网络研究要么论断了网络结构具有显著的协同效应和竞争优势,要么论断了网络结构具有降低治理成本。本文通过在Williamson模型基础上引入收益维度,将上述两种观点有机地结合起来,并为研究企业间网络问题提供一个新视角和新思路。     

论经济全球化背景下的反托拉斯政策国际协调

经济全球化给国际反托拉斯政策协调提出了挑战。目前,反托拉斯问题上各种形式的双边及多边合作迄今为止并没有为国际反托拉斯政策协调提供出一个满意的解决方案。特别是由于反托拉斯政策的不同影响而导致的利益分歧问题至今还没能很好地解决。