The Public Role of Actuaries in Private Pensions in Canada

Abstract

Actuaries have played prominent public roles in the development of occupational pension plans and social security arrangements in Canada. These roles include advising governments and government-appointed committees about regulatory structures, establishing funding standards, actively participating in regulatory functions, and pioneering valuation work for pension plans covering public sector employees. The formation in 1965 of the Canadian Institute of Actuaries led to the accreditation of actuaries in pension and tax legislation and to the development of actuarial standards of practice for pension work.     

Developing Mortality Improvement Formulas

Abstract

Longevity improvements have contributed to widespread underfunding of pension plans and losses in insured annuity portfolios. Insurers might reasonably expect some upside from the effect of lower mortality on their life business. Although mortality improvement scales, such as the Society of Actuaries Scale AA, are widely employed in pension and annuity valuation, the derivation of these scales appears heuristic, leading to problems in deriving meaningful measures of uncertainty. We explore the evidence on mortality trends for the Canadian life insurance companies, data, using stochastic models. We use the more credible population data to benchmark the insured lives data. Finally, we derive a practical, model-based formula for actuaries to incorporate mortality improvement and the associated uncertainty into their calculations.     

To Sustain a Vital and Vibrant Actuarial Profession

Abstract

Insurance markets are different from most other markets. Insurance markets have an inherent self-destructive tendency that can cause market failure. However, insurance markets not only exist, they thrive. This paper explores the essential role that actuaries play in countering problems that can cause market failure. Armed with our mathematical and business skills and strong sense of professionalism, actuaries are essential to the successful growth of insurance companies and insurance markets. The breakdown of barriers among segments of the financial services industry creates an opportunity for actuaries to apply these same skills to noninsurance financial institutions. Actuaries have a strong claim to becoming the profession the public relies upon to ensure that an adequate balance is kept between profits and solvency. The foundation of this claim is not the superiority of our intellectual tools. It is the advantages to society of actuaries as a well-defined, recognized group of trustworthy and professional financial managers.     

“Understanding Relationships Using Copulas,” Edward Frees and Emiliano Valdez,January 1998

Abstract

The problem of how to fund a defined-benefit pension plan is detached from the problem of how the cost of such a plan should be recognized. An approach to funding based on the projection of aggregate cash flows and the explicit modeling of new entrants is presented. It is shown that commonly used funding methods can be derived from the cash-flow approach. A generalized funding method for a plan subject to a stationary distribution of new entrants is derived. It is concluded that plan actuaries might need to modify existing funding methods to incorporate useful information about the expected number and distribution of future entrants.     

New Salary Functions for Pension Valuations

Abstract

This paper investigates salary functions as used in the valuation of pension plans. Pension actuaries as well as researchers in actuarial science may find many of the ideas in this article useful. The main conclusion of this paper is that salary functions, as derived from the parametric models, yield gains and losses that can be quite small and, in some cases, less variable than nonparametric methods. This paper starts by defining the salary function as an accumulation function based on inflation and merit. Next, we investigate traditional estimation methods in the context of this definition. We then present a parametric age-based model for the salary function and compare it with a parametric service-based model. Finally, we apply real pension plan data to derive age-and service-based salary functions and, through the use of two funding methods, investigate how these salary functions affect salary gains and losses.     

New danish bases of calculation in life and pension insurance

Abstract

A committee consisting of actuaries representing private life offices, private pension offices, and Statsanstalten for Livsforsikring (The State Life Insurance Institution) transacting both life and pension business, have compiled a complete set of calculation bases, which have been adopted by all Danish life and pension offices with effect as from January 1, 1966.     

Macroeconomic Aspects of Private Retirement Programs

Abstract

The decline in importance of private defined benefit plans in relation to defined contribution plans in the United States is a major issue of interest to pension actuaries. This decline has been attributed to numerous factors: costs of government regulation, societal and cultural changes, changed employer attitudes, and employees’ lack of understanding of defined benefit plans. It has also caused some observers to proclaim the end of private defined benefit plans. This paper analyzes possible macroeconomic factors contributing to the crisis of defined benefit plans and proposes an alternative hypothesis for the cause of the crisis: the decline of the relative attractiveness of defined benefit plans in relation to defined contribution plans when these are viewed as investments, that is, as securities in capital markets.     

The Actuary’s Role in Managed Care

Abstract

Financial risk is moving to center stage in the $1-trillion U.S. health-care market. The growth of managed care has created new forms of risk and has shifted this risk from insurance companies, which have long dealt with it successfully, to health-care providers and other organizations that have not traditionally accepted the same type and amount of risk. Health-care actuaries have the expertise to help these institutions, and the nation, protect their financial well-being.

Actuaries specialize in the evaluation, quantification, and management of risk. Actuarial models of health-care costs, which help evaluate risk, offer management a window to the managed care world. With these models and other tools, health-care actuaries help organizations succeed in today’s health-care environment by showing how the financial and functional elements of an organization relate to risk.

This report discusses the evolution of the health-care industry and the role that the healthcare actuary has played in that evolution. Eight case studies outline actuarial approaches to assessing risk in the era of managed care by discussing situations affecting five groups: providers, employers, regulators, public policy organizations, and HMOs. Built on experience gained in hundreds of cases, these studies show the range of tasks encountered by managed care actuaries and outline approaches that can help balance risks in today’s health-care system.     

The role of specialists in financial reporting: Evidence from pension accounting

The increasing use in financial reporting of estimates prepared by specialists has raised questions on the role these specialists play in financial reporting quality. In the setting of defined-benefit pension accounting—where the pension actuary is involved as a specialist—I examine whether pension sponsors with strong incentives to improve reported funding status pressure their actuaries for aggressive (obligation-reducing) assumptions. Among these sponsors, I find that those that are economically important clients of their actuaries use more aggressive discount rates than less important clients of the same actuary. Sponsors incentivized to inflate reported funding status but constrained from doing so also tend to seek out new actuaries. Discount rates become more aggressive after switches. These findings suggest that specialists are used to facilitate aggressive reporting. They also indicate that auditors—who are charged with evaluating specialists’ independence before relying on their work—may have difficulty implementing this guidance in practice.     

Strategies for Dividend Distribution: A Review

Abstract

In today’s world of financial uncertainty, one major public concern is to assess (and possibly improve) the stability of companies that take on risks. Actuaries have been aware of that issue for a very long time and have a great experience in modeling the activity of a risk business. During the first part of the twentieth century, they focused on the probability of ruin to assess the stability of their company. In his seminal paper of 1957 Bruno de Finetti criticized this approach and laid the foundations of what would become an increasingly popular topic: the study of dividend strategies. The contributions made by actuaries in that field constitute a substantial body of knowledge, whose interest is relevant not only to insurance but also to a much broader range of areas of practice. In this paper we aim at a taxonomical synthesis of the 50 years of actuarial research that followed de Finetti’s original paper.     

12-Year Experience Following Bone Marrow Transplantation with Emphasis on Acute and Chronic Leukemia

Abstract

Actuaries use a variety of approximations in calculating reserves. Among the methods used by actuaries for policies with modal premiums are fully discrete reserves, fully continuous reserves, discounted continuous reserves (equivalent to the apportionable premium case), and semicontinuous reserves. In this paper I discuss the relationships between these methods. I also examine the practical approximations commonly used and the way in which unearned premiums and deferred premiums are incorporated into this framework.     

“De‐risking” Corporate Pension Plans: Options for CFOs

Until the stock market bubble burst in 2000–2002, most CFOs viewed their defined benefit pension plans as profit centers and relatively risk‐free sources of income. Since neither pension assets nor liabilities were reported on corporate balance sheets, and expected returns on pension stocks could be substituted for actual returns when reporting net income, the risks associated with DB plans were masked by GAAP accounting and thus assumed to have no bearing on corporate capital structure. But when stock prices and corporate profits fell together, the risks associated with conventional stock‐heavy pension plans showed up first in reduced pension surpluses (or, in many cases, deficits) and then later in higher required cash contributions and lower reported earnings. As a consequence, today's investors (and rating agencies) are viewing pension and other legacy liabilities as corporate debt, and demands for transparency and increased funding have triggered accounting changes and proposed legislative reforms that will further unmask the economics. This article aims to provide both private‐sector and public‐sector CFOs with suggestions for reducing and controlling the cost of providing for the retirement of their employees. Profitable, tax‐paying companies with DB plans should consider (1) funding any unfunded liabilities (if necessary, by issuing debt) and (2) reducing pension equity and interest rate exposures by shifting some (if not all) pension assets into bonds and defeasing the pension liability (achieving a tax arbitrage in the process). And in cases where the expected costs of maintaining DB plans outweigh the benefits, companies should consider freezing or terminating their plans and switching to a defined contribution (DC) or some form of hybrid plan. The authors also propose similar changes for public pension plans, where underfunding and mismatch problems are greater, less transparent, and in some ways less tractable than those of corporate DB plans.     

Financing Gaps of Public Pension Schemes and Market Potential for the Private Retirement Market

Abstract

Increasing longevity, declining birth rates, and high unemployment severely threaten the financial basis of many public pension plans. These problems are most pronounced in continental Europe, where public pension plans tend to be relatively generous and are usually funded on a pay-as-you-go basis. Given the demographic development, future pension payments exceed the expected contribution payments. The resulting financing gaps can be seen as implicit public debts (net pension liabilities), which often exceed the value of GDP figures and are in many cases higher than the explicit public debt figures. If people would decide to cover these financing gaps via life insurance, life insurance premiums would triple in Germany, more than double in Italy, and double in Canada and France. The increase would be only moderate in the U.S. and particularly small in the U.K.     

An examination of state and local government pension underfunding – Implications and guidance for governance and regulation

State and local government pension underfunding has become a major focus of public policy debate due in large part to recent Governmental Accounting Standards Board (GASB) actions that have brought national attention to the issue. The extent of these plans underfunding has been debated, along with the necessity for state government intervention and the level of regulatory actions that should be enacted by state legislatures. State and local public pension plans do not fall under the enumerated powers of the federal government in the Constitution and are therefore left to each individual state to regulate. The amount of plan underfunding and enacted public policy by state varies greatly. Additionally, in contrast to numerous state balanced-budget laws, legal directives for fully funding public pensions are virtually non-existent. This paper analyzes the state and local public pension crisis, examines current and long-term risk, studies public employee fiscal conditions, considers the societal impacts of these plans, considers the strengths and weakness of pension plan types, recommends public policy and regulation, and offers strategies for managers, board members, and public officials to adopt.     

The Earnings Implications of Pension Expense

Abstract

Recent challenges to the actuarial pension model and a movement to harmonize international accounting standards both suggest that the current Canadian standards for pension accounting, CICA 3461, may see substantial revision during upcoming years. To understand better the implications of these possible accounting changes, this paper presents the results of a stochastic analysis that quantifies how the volatility of pension expense for a sample of ten Canadian companies sponsoring defined benefit plans will be increased by the adoption of immediate recognition accounting. For certain companies this increase is significant and is shown to have a material earnings impact. The implications of this earnings volatility for the future of defined benefit pension plans are also explored.     

Multivariate Analysis of Pension Plan Mortality Data

Abstract

This paper uses the logistic regression model to examine private pension plan data for 1989–95 collected by the Retirement Plans Experience Committee of the Society of Actuaries. When only one explanatory variable, such as annuity class size, is used in modeling mortality rates, the model provides a reasonable fit to the data. Multiple explanatory variables give less satisfactory results.     

The Shift to Defined Contribution Pension Plans

Abstract

There has been a strong shift away from defined benefit (DB) pension plans toward defined contribution (DC) pension plans in the United States over the last 20 years. A variety of reasons for this shift have been proposed. In another paper in this issue, Krzysztof Ostaszewski presents a new hypothesis to explain the shift to DC plans in the United States. He argues that the decline in importance of DB plans is due to a shift in the way relative returns to macroeconomic factors of production, that is, capital and labor, are being rewarded in the national economy.

This paper attempts to test the Ostaszewski hypothesis using Canadian data. In Canada there has been only a slight decrease in DB plan coverage. It is shown that the Ostaszewski theory does not fit the Canadian experience well. Instead, it is argued that pension regulation and tax legislation play a crucial role in pension design and reform. It is also argued that the difference in pension regulation and taxation in Canada versus the United States has directly influenced plan sponsors in considering their pension objectives, costs, and risks. Differences in the proportion of the workforce that is unionized may also be important. The paper concludes that pension regulation and taxation are more important variables than are macroeconomic reward systems in the use of DB versus DC pension plans.     

Forecasting mortality

Abstract

The work of actuaries is concerned with estimating the future on the basis of past experience. The calculation of a premium to be charged for a given risk implies a forecast of the future but so far as mortality is concerned we have generally been content to examine past experience and assume that the results will be repeated. Judged as forecasts our estimates have sometimes been wide of the mark and owing to an almost continuous improvement in mortality actuaries have been assuming heavier rates of mortality than have been experienced. We may defend the use of past experience by saying that it is on the safe side when we are calculating premiums and we may argue that it is the best practical method; but an alternative is to make a more accurate forecast and then allow in our calculations a margin for chance deviations, emergencies, etc. Moreover the assumption that the past will be repeated has not been uniformly safe; it has led to bad results in annuity business and may prove unfortunate in social insurance, pension funds, and even sickness insurance. For some of these purposes we should either work on an estimate of future rates of mortality or, which comes to much the same thing, take a sufficient margin to cover the error involved in our assumptions.     

Issues for Implementing Phased Retirement in Defined Benefit Plans

Abstract

U.S. society is aging. The nature of work has changed from work that requires physical strength to work based on knowledge. As a result, workers are beginning to phase into retirement rather than going directly from full-time work to full retirement. From a retirement income perspective, many final-average-pay defined benefit plans have features that make phased retirement difficult at best and detrimental at worst. U.S. pension law and regulations present barriers to phased retirement if the phased retiree wants to receive a portion of available pension benefits during phased retirement.

This paper examines private sector options to encourage phased retirement and to eliminate the disincentives that currently affect defined benefit plans. It offers alternative calculations of final average pay that do not penalize the part-time worker. It also demonstrates that the plan’s early retirement reduction and late retirement increase can be set to maintain actuarial equity throughout phased retirement. The paper presents benefit calculations with equal actuarial values for various payout patterns.

The paper discusses the coordination between phased retirement and subsidized early retirement. Finally, the paper notes some of the changes in ERISA that will be needed to facilitate phased retirement in defined benefit plans, especially for participants who want to receive pension distributions while working part time.     

Growth of the Public Responsibility of Actuaries in Life Insurance

Abstract

The public responsibility of life insurance actuaries has changed from supervisory compliance with detailed state laws to certifying adherence to more general regulatory objectives complemented by actuarial standards of practice.