Stock Market Sensitivity to U.K. Firms' Pension Discounting Assumptions

New U.K. pension accounting regulations significantly increase the exposure of the balance sheets of U.K. firms to volatilities in pension fund valuations. We examine whether the abnormal returns of firms that voluntarily used market-based pension discount rates are significantly different from the abnormal returns of industry-matched pair samples of firms that retained traditional cost-based valuation assumptions during the period surrounding the release of the related exposure draft. We also examine the interest rate sensitivity of stock price returns over the 4-year period before and after the announcement date. Consistent with our hypotheses, U.K. stock price returns incorporate the effect of unexpected interest rate changes on sources of pension earnings for firms that voluntarily switched to market-based assumptions but do not incorporate these effects for firms that did not switch. These results suggest that unexpected changes in interest rates have a differential effect on a firm's sources of pension, financial, and core earnings.     

Pension Funds and Emerging Markets

This paper focuses on the investment behavior of pension funds in developed and emerging market countries. First, it analyzes the main determinants of the emerging market asset allocation of pension funds in developed countries. Second, it assesses how pension funds in emerging markets have contributed to the development of local securities markets. Third, it analyzes the determinants of pension funds' investment performance. The paper concludes with a discussion of why the emerging market asset allocation of pension funds in developed countries is likely to increase and what the challenges faced by pension funds in emerging markets are.     

盘活中国养老金的巨大挑战

2万亿元的基础养老金,如此大的基数,无论是一个点的增加还是损失,都是一笔巨大的财富,如何通过资本市场盘活这笔资金,无疑将是中国政府未来面临的一个巨大挑战。     

论养老基金平衡机制--基于辽宁试点模式对养老基金平衡的透视

我国处于转轨中的养老模式面临着人口老龄化和转轨成本的双重压力，为此，2001年7月开始在辽宁省进行社保改革试点。本将以试点模式为研究起点，并将养老基金平衡剖析为两个收支平衡：一是横向平衡，二是纵向平衡。就横向平衡而言，笔认为难关的突破在于强化政府的社会保险责任，而纵向平衡的难关在于基金收益率。为此，本提出一些拓展性的社保改革思路，并认为在此基础之上养老基金的平衡是可以实现的。     

Deterministic Modeling of Defined-Contribution Pension Funds

Abstract

Formulas are derived to model the response of a money purchase, defined-contribution pension fund to the following types of investment shock: (1) an instantaneous fall in the value of the fund assets and (2) a permanent, uniform reduction in the rate of earned interest. An alternative defined-contribution fund, incorporating a variable defined-benefit scale, is then proposed, and its responses to the same investment shocks are compared with those of the money purchase fund. The comparison shows that the variable defined-benefit approach offers a useful alternative to the money purchase principle for defined-contribution pension funds.     

企业年金基金治理结构研究

企业年金基金同时具有信托属性和法律主体属性。企业年金法律关系是以信托法律关系为基础的双层法律关系。企业年金基金的受托人有内部化和外部化两种模式。企业年金理事会应当定性为企业年金基金的内部管理机构。法律将受托人的职责进行强制拆分,有利于企业年金基金治理结构的均衡。在实践中,职工的权利被弱化而企业却常常越位。本文认为应从合理分配企业年金理事会理事的责任、强化职工权利等角度完善企业年金基金治理结构。     

企业补充养老保险基金的市场化投资营运

国外在企业补充养老保险基金投资渠道选择方面的共同点是，一般都允许补充养老保险基金在一定限度内进入资本市场，以获得较高的投资收益。养老基金通过委托管理进入资本市场，促进了资本市场的壮大；成熟、活跃的资本市场也为养老基金的保值、增值提供了运作空间。     

大力发展养老基金,开启资本市场国际化大幕

本次全球金融危机爆发后,提振国内消费立即成为我国的重要政策取向,同时完善医疗制度和养老保障制度作为提振消费的重要手段也得到了广泛认同。于是,我国政府在养老领域出台了一系列的发展举措,养老基金得到大力发展。同时,为了应对金融危机,我国政府在资本市场领域也开始了一连串的创新举动,如创业板正式登台,并且将国际板的推出列入议事日程,在我国A股市场上推出国际版,意味着我国资本市场国际化正在加速。     

养老基金投资偏好研究综述

养老基金作为重要机构投资者,在投资时主要考虑投资的安全性、谨慎性、流动性、交易成本、公司业绩、投资风格以及公司治理.国外学者对此进行了大量的理论和实证研究,而我国在这一领域还处于起步阶段,有待进一步深入研究.     

A Termination Rule for Pension Guarantee Funds

A termination rule based on a critical funding ratio is proposed for a pension guarantee fund (PGF) that considers closing an underfunded pension plan. This ratio is determined by solving an expected utility maximization problem on behalf of plan beneficiaries subject to two constraints designed to preserve the PGF's viability. The first is an upper bound on the PGF's annual intervention probability; the second, a restriction on the expected shortfall of an underfunded pension plan that is not closed. Both too low and too high critical funding ratios hurt beneficiaries’ interests, depending on their degree of risk aversion.     

养老金，一驾沉重的马车

任何养老金体系的问题都有两面,中国现阶段面临的问题是既需要检讨设计问题,还需要正视实施过程。     

美国封闭式基金的发展和对我国的启示

不管是封闭式基金的哪种结局，都应该按照市场法规和基金持有人的意见来决定封闭式基金的命运。     

Some Implications of Changing the Tax Basis for Pension Funds

Governments in many developed economies provide private pension plans with significant taxation incentives. However, as many retirement income systems are now being reviewed due to demographic, social and economic pressures, these taxation arrangements are also under scrutiny. This paper discusses some of the implications of the differences between the traditional taxation treatment adopted by most OECD nations and that adopted by Australia, where there is a tax on contributions, a tax on investment earnings and a tax on benefits. The results show that there are significant differences in the net value of the benefits received by individuals and the taxation revenue received by the government. On the other hand, it is shown that there is remarkably little to distinguish between the two tax structures in terms of summary measures of lifetime income, although the form in which the benefit is taken in retirement is significant in influencing intragenerational equity.     

美国经济的三大风险及其对中美经济的影响

当前,美国经济正面临三大风险的威胁,这三大风险分别是巨额的"双赤字"及持续增长的债务、能源价格的大幅波动以及美国当前愈演愈烈的次级债务危机.这些风险将导致美国经济的下滑及美元的贬值,同时也会导致中国外贸出口增速减慢,以及给中国经济带来过多流动性的负面影响.     

养老基金投资运营管理的国外模式及其启示——智利、哈萨克斯坦的案例分析

随着世界范国内人口老龄化，各国社会保障基金制度财务危机、支付危机日趋凸现，欧美国家养老保险改革传统思路受阻，而智利、哈萨克斯坦的基金个人账户式养老保险基金管理模式却举世瞩目，两国建立个人养老金账户和投资资本市场是解决问题的根本出路。我国在现行的社会统筹和个人账户相结合的基本养老保险制度下，应该建立完善的个人账户养老基金投资管理模式，通过有效的投资运营来实现我国养老保险基金的保值增值。     

城镇企业职工基本养老保险统筹基金收支平衡研究

本文在对企业养老保险覆盖率、统筹养老金实际平均缴费率和实际平均替代率等主要制度参数的现状、未来变动趋势和合理目标值进行分析预测的基础上,基于根据第六次全国人口普查资料进行的人口预测数据,在不同的覆盖率、缴费率和替代率假设条件下,对2015-2050年企业养老保险统筹基金收支进行预测。研究结果发现,在不同假设条件下,2015-2050年企业养老保险统筹基金各年均存在不同规模的收支缺口,各年收支缺口在2015年现值之和的测算结果最低约为-33万亿元,最高约为-132万亿元,企业养老保险统筹基金未来支付压力较大。     

Quantifying the Costs of Investment Limits for Chilean Pension Funds*

Since the creation of the Chilean pension fund industry in 1981, pension fund administrators have not been free to choose their investment portfolios because of stringent regulation of investment limits. The diagnosis implicit with the imposition of limits was that the Chilean capital market was not deep, that there was an important demand for funds to finance the expansion of the productive sector and that, due to principal‐agent problems, protection for uninformed account holders was needed. As this regulation entails an inefficient combination of risk and return, this paper quantifies its costs.     

养老基金的国外投资：国际经验与中国的选择

从国际经验来看，各国近年来纷纷放松对养老基金投资组合的限制，养老基金国外证券投资的比重有增大的趋势。目前我国养老基金还不可能大规模进入国外证券市场，但在保证投资安全性的同时，也不能消极等待。     

Contemporaneous Spillover Effects between the U.S. and the U.K. Equity Markets

We use high frequency data and the “identification through heteroskedasticity” approach of Rigobon (2003) to capture the contemporaneous volatility spillover effects between the U.S. and U.K. equity markets. We demonstrate the relevance of taking into account the information present during simultaneous trading hours by comparing the results generated by our structural vector autoregression with those of a traditional reduced-form vector autoregression. Our findings clearly demonstrate that contemporaneous relations matter and that ignoring them leads to inappropriate conclusions regarding the magnitude and direction of volatility spillover.