A Risk Model with Multilayer Dividend Strategy

Abstract

In recent years various dividend payment strategies for the classical collective risk model have been studied in great detail. In this paper we consider both the dividend payment intensity and the premium intensity to be step functions depending on the current surplus level. Algorithmic schemes for the determination of explicit expressions for the Gerber-Shiu discounted penalty function and the expected discounted dividend payments are derived. This enables the analytical investigation of dividend payment strategies that, in addition to having a sufficiently large expected value of discounted dividend payments, also take the solvency of the portfolio into account. Since the number of layers is arbitrary, it also can be viewed as an approximation to a continuous surplus-dependent dividend payment strategy. A recursive approach with respect to the number of layers is developed that to a certain extent allows one to improve upon computational disadvantages of related calculation techniques that have been proposed for specific cases of this model in the literature. The tractability of the approach is illustrated numerically for a risk model with four layers and an exponential claim size distribution.     

Moments of Discounted Dividends for a Threshold Strategy in the Compound Poisson Risk Model

Abstract

We consider a compound Poisson risk model in which part of the premium is paid to the shareholders as dividends when the surplus exceeds a specified threshold level. In this model we are interested in computing the moments of the total discounted dividends paid until ruin occurs. However, instead of employing the traditional argument, which involves conditioning on the time and amount of the first claim, we provide an alternative probabilistic approach that makes use of the (defective) joint probability density function of the time of ruin and the deficit at ruin in a classical model without a threshold. We arrive at a general formula that allows us to evaluate the moments of the total discounted dividends recursively in terms of the lower-order moments. Assuming the claim size distribution is exponential or, more generally, a finite shape and scale mixture of Erlangs, we are able to solve for all necessary components in the general recursive formula. In addition to determining the optimal threshold level to maximize the expected value of discounted dividends, we also consider finding the optimal threshold level that minimizes the coefficient of variation of discounted dividends. We present several numerical examples that illustrate the effects of the choice of optimality criterion on quantities such as the ruin probability.     

Testing the Dividend Discount Model in Housing Markets: the Role of Risk

Tests of the dividend discount model (DDM) applied to housing have studied the trade-off between the capitalization rate (CAP rate) and subsequent house price appreciation. Even allowing for attenuation bias because of actual appreciation does not equal expected appreciation, evidence for the DDM is not strong. This research has included an implicit assumption that risks associated with housing investment are common across housing markets. In addition, many previous tests have used the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Rent Index to construct the CAP rate although recent research by Ambrose et al. (2015) has questioned this data. The American Housing Survey is used to construct estimates of the CAP rate which is then combined with standard appreciation measures to estimate total return and its variance over time for larger Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) in the U.S. Using statistically constructed estimates of the CAP rate and adding variance in total return to conduct tests of the DDM produces far stronger results than those obtained in previous studies of a cross section of cities in the U.S. But, when the BLS Rent Index is used to measure CAP rates and risk, the results are not consistent with DDM.     

企业股利政策与财务风险分析

股利政策是企业决定对其盈余进行分配的方案选择，股利政策的实行会给企业的生产经营带来一些有利的影响，同样也会给企业带来一定的财务风险。本将评述两种主要的股利理论，分析股利政策与企业财务风险之间的关系，并就我国上市公司股利政策的现状进行分析，阐述其原因以及其中存在的财务风险。     

Dividend Barrier Strategies in A Renewal Risk Model with Generalized Erlang Interarrival Times

Abstract

We consider a renewal risk model with generalized Erlang distributed interarrival times. We assume that the phases of the interarrival time can be observed. In order to solve de Finetti's dividend problem, we first consider phasewise barrier strategies and look for the optimal barriers when the initial capital is 0. For exponentially distributed claim sizes, we show that the barrier strategy is optimal among all admissible strategies. For the special case of Erlang(2) interarrival times, we calculate the value function and the optimal barriers.     

Agency Problems and Dividend Policies around the World

This paper outlines and tests two agency models of dividends. According to the "outcome model," dividends are paid because minority shareholders pressure corporate insiders to disgorge cash. According to the "substitute model," insiders interested in issuing equity in the future pay dividends to establish a reputation for decent treatment of minority shareholders. The first model predicts that stronger minority shareholder rights should be associated with higher dividend payouts; the second model predicts the opposite. Tests on a cross section of 4,000 companies from 33 countries with different levels of minority shareholder rights support the outcome agency model of dividends.     

Balance of Payments and Related Issues in the Uruguay Round of Trade Negotiations

Little attention has been paid to the balance of payments provisionsof the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), despitethe fact that they directly influence the trade policies ofthe developing countries. This article suggests that there isa need to reconsider these provisions in the context of theongoing Uruguay Round of multilateral trade negotiations. Thearticle traces the historical evolution of GATT practices ontrade restrictions for balance of payments purposes. With thegeneral introduction of more flexible exchange rate arrangements,the original rationale for temporary barriers to safeguard acountry's external financial position appears to have lost itsforce. Recent theoretical and empirical work has demonstratedthat neutral or export promoting trade strategies are more effectivefor development than the import substitution frequently advocatedby economists in the 1950s and 1960s. The current debt problemsof developing countries strengthen the argument for a relativelyopen trade and payments regime to attain balance of paymentsviability. The article suggests that stronger internationaldiscipline over trade restrictions for balance of payments purposeswould contribute to and presuppose other necessary improvementsin the multilateral trading system which are already on theagenda of the Uruguay Round.     

The Expected Discounted Penalty at Ruin for a Markov-Modulated Risk Process Perturbed by Diffusion

Abstract

A Markov-modulated risk process perturbed by diffusion is considered in this paper. In the model the frequencies and distributions of the claims and the variances of the Wiener process are influenced by an external Markovian environment process with a finite number of states. This model is motivated by the flexibility in modeling the claim arrival process, allowing that periods with very frequent arrivals and ones with very few arrivals may alternate. Given the initial surplus and the initial environment state, systems of integro-differential equations for the expected discounted penalty functions at ruin caused by a claim and oscillation are established, respectively; a generalized Lundberg’s equation is also obtained. In the two-state model, the expected discounted penalty functions at ruin due to a claim and oscillation are derived when both claim amount distributions are from the rational family. As an illustration, the explicit results are obtained for the ruin probability when claim sizes are exponentially distributed. A numerical example also is given for the case that two classes of claims are Erlang(2) distributed and of a mixture of two exponentials.     

Asymptotic Theory for a Risk Process with a High Dividend Barrier

The only way to avoid ruin in the classical model of the collective risk theory is that the surplus increases to infinity. We consider a modified model with a dividend barrier that prevents this behavior. It is shown that there is a simple approximation formula for the time of ruin when the level of the dividend barrier is high and the Cramér-Lundberg condition is satisfied. A numerical example is presented in the case when the claims are exponentially distributed. The relation to queuing theory is used to derive the proportion of time the surplus is below some given level.     

The Moments of the Time of Ruin in Markovian Risk Models

Abstract

We present an approach based on matrix-analytic methods to find moments of the time of ruin in Markovian risk models. The approach is applicable when claims occur according to a Markovian arrival process (MAP) and claim sizes are phase distributed with parameters that depend on the state of the MAP. The method involves the construction of a sample-path-equivalent Markov-modulated fluid flow for the risk model. We develop an algorithm for moments of the time of ruin and prove the algorithm is convergent. Examples show that the proposed approach is computationally stable.     

人民币汇率波动高阶矩风险的测度研究

为了考察人民币汇率高阶矩风险的动态特征,本文首先采用拉格朗日乘子检验对人民币/美元名义汇率收益率序列是否存在异方差、异偏度和异峰度效应进行判断,然后运用自回归条件方差偏度峰度模型对汇率波动的高阶矩风险进行测量.研究表明,人民币汇率波动的方差风险和偏度风险具有时变特征,而峰度风险不具有时变性,鉴于人民币汇率风险的时变性,应该从动态角度进行汇率风险的防范与规避.     

基于关联交易的集团客户信用风险模式分析

银行在整个授信过程中都有可能承受集团客户关联交易所引致的信用风险,按照关联交易对银行授信决策与管理过程的影响特点,本文将集团客户关联交易引致信用风险的模式划分为信用决策风险、信用膨胀风险和信用转移风险,并分别对它们的形成机理进行分析。     

Dividend Dynamics and the Term Structure of Dividend Strips

Many leading asset pricing models are specified so that the term structure of dividend volatility is either flat or upward sloping. These models predict that the term structures of expected returns and volatilities on dividend strips (i.e., claims to dividends paid over a prespecified interval) are also upward sloping. However, the empirical evidence suggests otherwise. This discrepancy can be reconciled if these models replace their proposed dividend dynamics with processes that generate stationary leverage ratios. Under such policies, shareholders are forced to divest (invest) when leverage is low (high), which shifts risk from long‐ to short‐horizon dividend strips.     

Dividend Initiations and Asymmetric Information: A Hazard Model

This paper investigates the dynamics of dividend policy using a hazard model. Specifically, the paper examines dividend initiations for a sample of firms that went public between 1990 and 1997. These dividend initiations are examined in the context of an alternative explanation based on the pecking order theory. The results indicate that the probability or the hazard rate of a dividend initiation is negatively related to both the level of asymmetric information and growth opportunities and positively related to the level of cash flow. These results are consistent with a pecking order explanation but inconsistent with a signaling explanation.     

Default and Recovery Risk Dependencies in a Simple Credit Risk Model

This paper provides evidence for the relationship between credit quality, recovery rate, and correlation. The paper finds that rating grade, rating shift, and macroeconomic factors provide a highly significant explanation for default risk and recovery risk of US bond issues. The empirical data suggest that default and recovery processes are highly correlated. Therefore, a joint approach is required for estimating time‐varying default probabilities and recovery rates that are conditional on default. This paper develops and applies such a model.     

Risk Capital for a Profitable Public Corporation: Public Dividend Capital or Equity?

The question of whether profitable public corporations should be converted to private, equity capital finance (i.e.'privatized', in current U.K. terminology) or not is arguably the dominant issue in the public sector of the U.K. economy. The present U.K. government has embarked upon a policy of privatization of state industries. This has attracted considerable criticism on the grounds that the government's actions are the product of ideological and short-term fiscal considerations (principally the funding of public expenditure) rather than of carefully considered policy (Heald and Steel, 1981; Heald, 1983, p. 154). This topic is examined in this paper. The discussion is neither partisan nor ideological. Instead, it centres on the technical and economic merits of equity capital versus its public sector proxy, Public Dividend Capital (PDC). This latter form of capital financing has been neglected in recent years, as the major thrust of the public sector debate has addressed the need for equity capital in the nationalized industries. Therefore, the ensuing discussion is not only a critique of the case for introducing private equity capital in state industries, but it is also an assessment of the case for the retention of PDC as a major instrument of finance.     

为担保"圈钱"画上休止符

关联担保是把双刃剑,运用恰当,将给公司的生产经营提供方便;使用不当,就会使企业面临巨大的担保风险,也使银行承受起巨大的信贷风险。