汽车保险精算定价模型研究综述

汽车保险定价模型在非寿险精算领域内占有重要地位,本文对车险定价模型一百多年来的研究进展作了综述性的回顾。首先,本文介绍了车险定价模型的先验估费方法;其次着重介绍了时齐的后验估费方法,以及时变的先验后验相结合的精算模型;最后提出了车险定价模型的未来发展方向。     

Pricing the Option to Surrender in Incomplete Markets

New international accounting standards require insurers to reflect the value of embedded options and guarantees in their products. Pricing techniques based on the Black and Scholes paradigm are often used; however, the hypotheses underneath this model are rarely met. We propose a framework that encompasses the most known sources of incompleteness. We show that the surrender option, joined with a wide range of claims embedded in insurance contracts, can be priced through our tool, and deliver hedging portfolios to mitigate the risk arising from their positions. We provide extensive empirical analysis to highlight the effect of incompleteness on the fair value of the option.     

Generalised Sharpe Ratios and Asset Pricing in Incomplete Markets

The paper presents an incomplete market pricingmethodology generating asset pricebounds conditional on the absence of attractiveinvestment opportunities in equilibrium.The paper extends and generalises the seminal article ofCochrane and Saá-Requejowho pioneered option pricing based on the absenceof arbitrage and high Sharpe Ratios. Ourcontribution is threefold:We base the equilibrium restrictions on an arbitrary utility function, obtaining theCochrane and Saá-Requejo analysis as a special case with truncated quadratic utility. We extend the definition of Sharpe Ratio from quadratic utility to the entire family of CRRA utility functions and restate the equilibrium restrictions in terms ofGeneralised Sharpe Ratios which, unlike the standard Sharpe Ratio, provide aconsistent ranking of investment opportunities even when asset returns are highlynon-normal. Last but not least, we demonstrate that for Itô processes theCochrane and Saá-Requejo price bounds are invariant to the choice of the utilityfunction, and that in the limit they tend to a unique price determined by theminimal martingale measure.     

Financial Markets for Unknown Risks if Beliefs Differ

We consider a general equilibrium model with individual and collective risks. The article builds on a contribution by Chichilnisky and Heal, who show that contingent Arrow–Debreu equilibria can also be supported in economies with Arrow securities and mutual insurance contracts. However, they show this to be true in general only if beliefs are identical, a very restrictive assumption in the context of unknown risks. Moreover, they claim complete insurance in equilibrium to be impossible if beliefs are different. We show that even with different beliefs, firstly, complete insurance is possible in each statistical state, and secondly, contingent equilibrium can still be supported in economies with insurance and securities.     

Pricing Risk-Adjusted Deposit Insurance: An Option-Based Model

This paper presents a methodology for arriving at empirical estimates of deposit insurance premiums from market data by using isomorphic relationships between equity and a call option, and insurance and a put option. The data utilizes the market value of equity to solve for the asset value and its volatility. Market perceptions of FDIC bailout policies are explicitly modeled so as to eliminate the bias in inverted values of assets and their volatility. Sensitivity analyses are performed to show that rank orderings based on premiums are robust to changes in specification, thus facilitating allocation of aggregate premium across banks.     

Pareto-Optimal Insurance Policies in the Models with a Premium Based on the Actuarial Value

This article analyzes the problem of designing Pareto‐optimal insurance policies when both the insurer and the insured are risk averse and the premium is calculated as a function of the actuarial value of the insurer's risk. Two models are considered: in the first, the set of admissible policies is constrained by a given size of the premium; in the second, the premium size is not constrained so that it varies with the actuarial value of a policy chosen by the agents. For both cases a characterization of the Pareto‐optimal policies is derived. The corresponding optimality equations for the Pareto‐optimal policies are obtained and compared with the results on the classical risk exchange model.     

Pricing and Hedging of Multi Type Contracts under Multidimensional Risks in Incomplete Markets Modeled by General Itô SDE Systems

The HARA and CARA theory of pricing, and the theory of partial, yet the most conservative hedging, of a single (liquid) tradable derivative contract under multidimensionality of risks in incomplete markets, including markets with non-hedgable interest rate risks, was developed by the author in a recent paper. In the present paper this theory is extended to the general case of simultaneous pricing and hedging of multiple (types of) such contracts. The results are based on the generalization of the “fundamental matrix of derivatives pricing and hedging” to include multiple contracts. Some applications are discussed as well.     

Asset Pricing and Hedging in Financial Markets with Transaction Costs: An Approach Based on the Von Neumann–Gale Model

The paper develops a general discrete-time framework for asset pricing and hedging in financial markets with proportional transaction costs and trading constraints. The framework is suggested by analogies between dynamic models of financial markets and (stochastic versions of) the von Neumann–Gale model of economic growth. The main results are hedging criteria stated in terms of “dual variables” – consistent prices and consistent discount factors. It is shown how these results can be applied to specialized models involving transaction costs and portfolio restrictions.     

我国寿险保费收入与金融资产关联性的实证研究

在金融资产选择理论框架下,从居民投资角度建立了寿险保费收入与部分金融资产间的ECM模型,结果发现:储蓄增长对寿险保费收入短期的贡献大于长期的贡献,加息会在短期内刺激保费增加但长期内却有抑制作用,国债和股票受结构性因素影响未表现出和寿险保费有长期均衡关系.寿险公司应在短期内把部分储蓄转化成保费,在长期内要开发新的营销渠道、加快寿险产品创新、加强保障型产品的开发.     

Nonlinear Cointegration Relationships Between Non-Life Insurance Premiums and Financial Markets

The aim of this article is to study the adjustment dynamics of the non-life insurance premium (NLIP) and test its dependence to the financial markets in five countries (Canada, France, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States). First, we justify the linkage between the insurance and the financial markets by the underwriting cycle theory and financial models of insurance pricing. Second, we examine the relationship between the NLIP, the interest rate, and the stock price using the recent developments of nonlinear econometrics. We use threshold cointegration models: the switching transition error correction models (STECM). We show that STECM perform better than a linear error correction model (LECM) to reproduce the NLIP dynamics. Our empirical results show that the adjustment of the NLIP in France, Japan, and the United States is rather discontinuous, asymmetrical, and nonlinear. Moreover, we suggest a strong evidence of significant linkages between insurance and financial markets, show two regimes for the NLIP, and find that the NLIP adjustment toward equilibrium is time varying with a convergence speed that varies according to the insurance disequilibrium size.     

A Study of the Interaction of Insurance and Financial Markets: Efficiency and Full Insurance Coverage

The first contribution of this article is to provide a framework, a model together with a corresponding equilibrium notion, suitable for the study of the interaction between insurance and dynamic financial markets. Our central result is that in equilibrium risk‐averse agents purchase full insurance coverage, despite unfair insurance prices. We identify three conditions that explain this result: (1) insurance contracts are priced competitively, (2) financial prices include a risk premium only for undiversifiable risk, and (3) financial markets are effectively complete. An implication is that in this model disasters can be insured by fully assessable stock insurance companies.     

Convergence of Insurance and Financial Markets: Hybrid and Securitized Risk-Transfer Solutions

One of the most significant economic developments of the past decade has been the convergence of the financial services industry, particularly the capital markets and (re)insurance sectors. Convergence has been driven by the increase in the frequency and severity of catastrophic risk, market inefficiencies created by (re)insurance underwriting cycles, advances in computing and communications technologies, the emergence of enterprise risk management, and other factors. These developments have led to the development of hybrid insurance/financial instruments that blend elements of financial contracts with traditional reinsurance as well as new financial instruments patterned on asset-backed securities, futures, and options that provide direct access to capital markets. This article provides a survey and overview of the hybrid and pure financial markets instruments and provides new information on the pricing and returns on contracts such as industry loss warranties and Cat bonds.     

DCF保险定价模型的模糊化及其应用

在介绍保险产品定价模型--折现现金流(DCF,Discounted Cash Flow)模型的基础上,用模糊理论的研究方法对一个典型的DCF模型进行了扩展.通过实例分析表明,此模型可以为管理层的定价决策提供更有效的信息,并且在我国保险行业发展初期缺乏数据资料的情况下,有着良好的运用前景.     

夫妻联合长期护理保险的定价模型与应用

在人口老龄化和人口长寿背景下,社会对老年长期护理保障的需求不断增长,基于家庭保障的理念,本文将多元寿险模型推广到夫妻联合长期护理保险,构建了健康、轻度失能、重度失能和死亡的马尔科夫四状态转移模型,并在联合个体状态转移相互独立的假设下给出了夫妻联合长期护理保险定价模型.最后基于中国老年健康影响因素跟踪调查微观数据,实现了...