中国高新技术企业风险分析及其对保险业发展的特殊意义研究

高新技术企业与传统企业相比具有"三高"特性,即投入高、风险高和收益高.高新技术企业本身特点决定其经营有着特殊的风险状况,从而给保险业发展提供了新的思路.     

试论建立存款保险制度的重要性

随着金融改革的大步深入和WTO的加入，我国银行业的经营环境将发生很大变化，对此，有效的“存款保险制度”的建立，将对构筑一个安全性和效率性并存在的金融体系发挥出其积极的作用。     

Sources of Bank Interest Rate Risk

We investigate bank stocks'sensitivity to changes in interest rates and the factors affecting this sensitivity. We focus on whether the exposure of commercial banks to interest rate risk is conditioned on certain balance sheet and income statement ratios. We find a significantly negative relation between bank stock returns and changes in interest rates over the period 1991–1996. We also find that bank characteristics measured from basic financial statement information explain bank stocks'sensitivity to interest rate changes. These results suggest that bank managers, analysts, and regulators can use this information to assess the relative risk exposure of banks.     

非寿险承保风险引发系统性风险的复杂网络分析

本文基于我国财险业2009～2018年数据,用复杂网络理论模型构建了财险业承保业务网络,并模拟了承保风险传染过程,分析了承保风险对财险业系统性风险的影响轨迹及程度.研究发现,我国财险业承保业务网络的联系越来越密切,承保风险的增加会引发传染风险,进而导致爆发系统性风险.但当前我国财险业整体稳定,只有发生1600亿元及以上...     

Portfolio Insurance with Liquidity Risk

This paper studies a portfolio insurance problem with liquidity risk. We consider an investor who wants to maximize the expected growth rate of wealth in a low liquid market. The investor can trade assets only at random times and his wealth must not fall below a predetermined floor. We find the optimal expected growth rate and an optimal strategy. The optimal strategy is closely related with a traditional constant proportion portfolio insurance strategy. Also we show that the same strategy maximizes the growth rate almost surely. Further we study the floor effect on the growth rate.     

Bank Risk and Deposit Insurance

Arguing that a relatively high cost of deposit insurance indicatesthat a bank takes excessive risks, this article estimates thecost of deposit insurance for a large sample of banks in 14economies to assess the relationship between the risk-takingbehavior of banks and their corporate governance structure.The results suggest that banks with concentrated ownership tendto take the greatest risks, and those with dispersed ownershipengage in a relatively low level of risk taking. Moreover, asa proxy for bank risk, the cost of deposit insurance has somepower in predicting bank distress.     

投资联结保险的相关问题

投资连结保险是一种融保障和投资理财于一体，代表国际保险业最新潮流的非传统寿险险种，在我国，投资连结保险刚刚推出，是一个需要在发展中不断完善和壮大的新型险种。     

保险与企业风险管理

企业在日常生产经营活动中会遇到各种风险,开展和加强风险管理已成为维护企业生存与发展必不可少的工作,同时也是现代企业管理的一项重要内容,企业风险管理必须从认识风险、选择风险管理方法入手,其中,保险已成为企业开展风险管理的一项重要管理手段。企业必须正确地运用保险为自己的管理服务,同时,保险也要在企业管理中不断创新和发展。     

Assessing Consumer Fraud Risk in Insurance Claims

Abstract

We present an unsupervised learning method for classifying consumer insurance claims according to their suspiciousness of fraud versus nonfraud. The predictor variables contained within a claim file that are used in this analysis can be binary, ordinal categorical, or continuous variates. They are constructed such that the ordinal position of the response to the predictor variable bears a monotonic relationship with the fraud suspicion of the claim. Thus, although no individual variable is of itself assumed to be determinative of fraud, each of the individual variables gives a “hint” or indication as to the suspiciousness of fraud for the overall claim file. The presented method statistically concatenates the totality of these “hints” to make an overall assessment of the ranking of fraud risk for the claim files without using any a priori fraud-classified or -labeled subset of data. We first present a scoring method for the predictor variables that puts all the variables (whether binary “red flag indicators,” ordinal categorical variables with different categories of possible response values, or continuous variables) onto a common –1 to 1 scale for comparison and further use. This allows us to aggregate variables with disparate numbers of potential values. We next show how to concatenate the individual variables and obtain a measure of variable worth for fraud detection, and then how to obtain an overall holistic claim file suspicion value capable of being used to rank the claim files for determining which claims to pay and the order in which to investigate claims further for fraud. The proposed method provides three useful outputs not usually available with other unsupervised methods: (1) an ordinal measure of overall claim file fraud suspicion level, (2) a measure of the importance of each individual predictor variable in determining the overall suspicion levels of claims, and (3) a classification function capable of being applied to existing claims as well as new incoming claims. The overall claim file score is also available to be correlated with exogenous variables such as claimant demographics or highvolume physician or lawyer involvement. We illustrate that the incorporation of continuous variables in their continuous form helps classification and that the method has internal and external validity via empirical analysis of real data sets. A detailed application to automobile bodily injury fraud detection is presented.     

Risk Mutualization and Competition in Insurance Markets

The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of mutual firms on competition in the insurance market. We distinguish two actors in this market: mutual firms, which belong to their pooled members, and traditional companies, which belong to their shareholders. Our approach differs from the literature by one crucial assumption: the expected utility of the consumers depends on the size of their insurance firm, which generates network externalities in this market. Thus, the choice of a contract results in a trade-off between the premium level and the probability of that premium being ex-post adjusted. The optimal contract offered by a mutual firm involves a systematic ex-post adjustment (negative or positive), while the contracts a company offers imply a fixed premium that is possibly negatively adjusted at the end of the contractual period. In an oligopoly game, we show that three types of configurations are possible at equilibrium: either one mutual firm or insurance company is active, or a mixed structure emerges in which two or more companies share the market with or without a mutual firm.     

全球经济风险变迁与重要风险来源分析

从资产泡沫破灭到主权债务危机自2007年美国爆发次贷危机起,全球信用环境迅速恶化。五年间,信用风险的焦点从微观的居民个体、房地产企业和金融企业,逐渐转移到全球的房地产业和金融业,再通过向实体经济的扩散,将财政脆弱的国家拖入困境。2007年至2009年间,美国65家金融机构在金融危机中发生亏损,进而资不抵债,最终被美国联邦存款保险公司接管,这些金融机构持有的存款数额高达550亿美元。由于联邦存款保险公司的介入,这场危机并未对存款人造成严重影响,但其引发的财富     

Analysis of Systemic Risk in the Insurance Industry

In this paper, we discuss the systemic relevance of the insurance sector. Systemic risk is defined as the propensity of a financial institution to be undercapitalised when the financial system as a whole is undercapitalised. By the law of large numbers, traditional lines of insurance with idiosyncratic non-catastrophic risks cannot be systemic. On the contrary, undiversified insurers specialised in activities whose insured risks are highly correlated with GDP are systemic. In the life insurance sector, some contractual clauses such as unhedged minimum guarantees and free options to surrender raise the chance of systemic relevance. On the contrary, life insurers satisfying the classic solvency capital requirements contribute to the liquidity of financial markets thanks to the long-termist approach of their portfolio management. Finally, using historical data in the U.S. on the contribution of different sectors to the aggregate volatility of the economy, we show that investment banking is almost twice as volatile as aggregate GDP, while insurance is one fifth as volatile as aggregate GDP. The insurance sector thus appears to be a stabilising force of the economy.     

供应链风险源分析

本文从风险源可控与否的角度对供应链风险因素进行了重新分类,将自然灾害、全球化、产品区域垄断性加强、通信和信息技术的瓶颈问题、各国各地政策和法律差异、政治和经济的干预、消费者偏好的复杂多变等归纳为企业不可控的风险因素;将外包、短暂生命周期、供应商管理库存、企业经营和管理中的技术依赖以及依赖少数几个供应商归纳为企业可控风险因素,并对各风险因素进行了详细分析。     

Bayesian Risk Management for Equity-Linked Insurance

This paper describes how to apply Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to a regime switching model of the stock price process to generate a sample from the joint posterior distribution of the parameters of the model. The MCMC output can be used to generate a sample from the predictive distribution of losses from equity linked contracts, assuming first an actuarial approach to risk management and secondly a financial economics approach. The predictive distribution is used to show the effect of parameter uncertainty on risk management calculations. We also explore model uncertainty by assuming a GARCH model in place of the regime switching model. The results indicate that the financial economics approach to risk management is substantially more robust to parameter uncertainty and model uncertainty than the actuarial approach.     

防范和化解保险经营风险的思考

保险经营风险的防范和化解是一个系统工程，需要政府、保险企业、监管部门、行业自律组织以及社会公众等的共同努力，在加强对保险风险识别和分析的基础上，通过制定稳健的保险产业发展政策、建立健全保险企业风险控制机制、加强偿付能力监管、完善保险同业自律机制、培育社会监督力量以及加强宣传教育等，达到有效地防范和化解风险的目的。