Mortality of Smoking by Gender

Exposure to cigarette smoke has had and will continue to have a huge effect on mortality. Significant differences in smoking prevalence rates by gender have contributed to varying levels and rates of improvement in mortality over the last several decades and are expected to continue to influence mortality improvement differently over the next several decades. The combined effect of greater historical smoking prevalence rates by males and their corresponding earlier and larger reduction has in part been responsible for the recent improvement in mortality rates for males compared to that for females in the United States. Similar patterns are evident in almost all economically developed countries, although their timing and levels differ. The patterns in less-developed countries will likely follow similar patterns as concerns emerge about the effect of smoking on the mortality of their citizens. The objective of this article is to compare smoking prevalence and cessation by gender and the effect on smoking-attributable and, in turn, all-cause mortality. A summary of mortality attribution approaches used to enhance the evaluation of the effect of smoking and projections of mortality rates by gender is also provided.     

Modeling Mortality With Jumps: Applications to Mortality Securitization

In this article, we incorporate a jump process into the original Lee–Carter model, and use it to forecast mortality rates and analyze mortality securitization. We explore alternative models with transitory versus permanent jump effects and find that modeling mortality via transitory jump effects may be more appropriate in mortality securitization. We use the Swiss Re mortality bond in 2003 as an example to show how to apply our model together with the distortion measure approach to value mortality-linked securities. Pricing the Swiss Re mortality bond is challenging because the mortality index is correlated across countries and over time. Cox, Lin, and Wang (2006) employ the normalized multivariate exponential tilting to take into account correlations across countries, but the problem of correlation over time remains unsolved. We show in this article how to account for the correlations of the mortality index over time by simulating the mortality index and changing the measure on paths.     

Redistribution and Insurance: Mandatory Annuitization With Mortality Heterogeneity

This article examines the distributional implications of mandatory longevity insurance when mortality heterogeneity exists in the population. Previous research has demonstrated the significant financial redistribution that occurs under alternative annuity programs in the presence of differential mortality across groups. This article embeds that analysis into a life‐cycle framework that allows for an examination of distributional effects on a utility‐adjusted basis. It finds that the degree of redistribution that occurs from the introduction of a mandatory annuity program is substantially lower on a utility‐adjusted basis than when evaluated on a purely financial basis. In a simple life‐cycle model with no bequests, complete annuitization is welfare enhancing even for those with higher‐than‐average expected mortality rates, so long as administrative costs are sufficiently low. These findings have implications for policy toward annuitization, particularly as part of a reformed Social Security system.     

Major Issues Associated With the Reporting of Government Net Worth

Modern governments are increasingly making legislative commitments to adopt responsible fiscal policies and, as part of those commitments, undertaking to maintain their net worth and to report against that undertaking. With recent developments in public-sector accounting, reporting of government net worth and change of net worth has become possible. This paper examines some major issues relating to the reporting of government net worth. As attempts to provide for the measurement of assets and liabilities (the components of net worth) on a current value basis have met significant opposition in the private sector, some implications for the public sector are considered.     

建设杭州金融城的形象进度与内涵延展——接轨上海，建设长三角南翼区域金融中心

以“开一家、赚一家”为特征的“杭州金融现象”,成为国内金融业界的一首这靓丽风景。杭州是国内金融业最为安全的城市之一,据中国社会科学院金融研究所发布的《中国地区金融生态环境评价》,杭州在全国50个大中城市的金融生态环境评价是中排名居首,被国务院授予“中国服务外包示范城市”之一。 然而,长期以来,杭州在全国的金融地位一直落...     

Episodes of Exuberance in Housing Markets: In Search of the Smoking Gun

In this paper, we examine changes in the time series properties of three widely used housing market indicators (real house prices, price-to-income ratios, and price-to-rent ratios) for a large set of countries to detect episodes of explosive dynamics. Dating such episodes of exuberance in housing markets provides a timeline as well as empirical content to the narrative connecting housing exuberance to the global 2008 ?09 recession. For our empirical analysis, we employ two recursive univariate unit root tests recently developed by Phillips and Yu (International Economic Review 52(1):201–226, 2011) and Phillips et al. (2015). We also propose a novel extension of the test developed by Phillips et al. (2015) to a panel setting in order to exploit the large cross-sectional dimension of our international dataset. Statistically significant periods of exuberance are found in most countries. Moreover, we find strong evidence of the emergence of an unprecedented period of exuberance in the early 2000s that eventually collapsed around 2006 ?07, preceding the 2008 ?09 global recession. We examine whether macro and financial variables help to predict (in-sample) episodes of exuberance in housing markets. Long-term interest rates, credit growth and global economic conditions are found to be among the best predictors. We conclude that global factors (partly) explain the synchronization of exuberance episodes that we detect in the data in the 2000s.     

Costs Associated With Going-Concern-Modified Audit Opinions: An Analysis of the Australian Audit Market

This article examines the potential costs to Australian auditors and their clients from the issuance of first-time going-concern-modified audit opinions. We examine the population of Australian companies receiving a first-time going-concern-modified audit opinion during the period 1994–97 and a matched sample of financially distressed firms receiving a clean audit opinion. Results indicate that auditor switching is positively associated with receipt of a going-concern-modified opinion. However, we find no empirical evidence that there is a self-fulfilling prophecy of increased probability of company failure following the issuance of a going-concern-modified opinion for the Australian companies in our study. Our analyses of lost audit fees indicate that auditors issuing first-time going-concern-modified audit opinions lost proportionately more fees by losing clients (through switching or company failure) than firms not issuing a going-concern-modified opinion to financially stressed clients.     

Optimal Dividends In An Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Type Model With Credit And Debit Interest

Abstract

In the absence of investment and dividend payments, the surplus is modeled by a Brownian motion. But now assume that the surplus earns investment income at a constant rate of credit interest. Dividends are paid to the shareholders according to a barrier strategy. It is shown how the expected discounted value of the dividends and the optimal dividend barrier can be calculated; Kummer’s confluent hypergeometric differential equation plays a key role in this context. An alternative assumption is that business can go on after ruin, as long as it is profitable. When the surplus is negative, a higher rate of debit interest is applied. Several numerical examples document the influence of the parameters on the optimal dividend strategy.     

农行重庆分行流动服务自助银行调查报告

中国农业银行重庆分行尝试通过＂乡镇自助银行＋流动客户经理＋社会协作配合＂的新型模式,延伸金融服务＂半径＂,增强服务＂三农＂的能力。为总结分析流动服务自助银行的运作模式,本报告对武隆县支行的仙女山镇乡镇自助银行进行了调研,对其服务＂三农＂的市场定位、发展前景和存在的困难问题进行了系统分析,以期为如何服务＂三农＂提供参考。     

亚洲新兴市场国家应对资本流入实施的政策及启示

本轮金融危机后,发达经济体经济复苏缓慢,而新兴市场国家经济快速增长.为应对经济复苏乏力和欧债危机产生的不确定性,发达经济体继续保持量化宽松的货币政策,全球流动性十分充裕.新兴市场国家由于实施退出战略和有着较好的经济前景预期,全球资本迅速向新兴市场国家集聚.在此背景下,本文分析了当前资本流入到新兴市场国家的特点,并对新兴...     

Competing Regulatory Agencies With Conflicting Agendas: Setting Standards For Cash Flow Reporting In Australia

Financial accounting regulatory arrangements adopted in most Western countries often involve the participation of (and interactions between) public-sector and private-sector regulatory agencies. The political process associated with the development of accounting rules not only involves the efforts of interested parties seeking to secure the content of rules favourable to their interests but also the behaviours of regulatory agencies as they compete to influence or control the regulatory 'agenda'.
Regulatory agencies develop their own agendas, in light of their own perceived priorities and the regulatory initiatives of other agencies. The placing of an accounting issue on the agenda of one agency may be warmly supported by other agencies or, alternatively, be viewed as a threat to the regulatory ambitions of those other agencies.
This case study reviews the emergence and eventual resolution of an accounting issue that was initially promoted by a government agency in April 1984 but then ultimately developed as a professional accounting standard in December 1991. The study describes the activities of public and private-sector agencies during this eight-year period as they responded to proposals for the introduction of disclosure rules concerning cash flows. Evidence was obtained from public records, documents provided by interest groups, and structured and semi-structured interviews with key participants in the events described.
The analysis is underscored by our understanding of competitive regulatory interactions and formal models for analysing agenda entrance (Cobb et al. 1976). This analysis shows how the profession's standard-setting body was unable to control the global agenda for accounting rule-making as a consequence of the intervention of another body, the Australian Stock Exchange.