我国房价变动与进口贸易的关系:基于GMM与主成分因子的分析

本文利用中国1991至2009年的月度住宅销售平均价格数据,在广义矩方法(GMM)的基础上,重点引入基于时间序列数据的主成分因子分析模型进行实证研究,发现进口总值与商品房屋平均销售价格呈正相关关系,且进口总值的变动是房价变动的格兰杰原因,这可能与生产性厂商更多地选择投资房产有关。主成分因子分析结果表明,房价和其他四个解释变量组成的线性回归模型,可以很好地解释进口总值的变动。     

A Multi-Attribute Negotiation Support System with Market Signaling for Electronic Markets

Despite the rapid growth of technology and Internet-based markets, many of the current systems limit themselves to price as the single dimension variable and offer, if at all, only minimal negotiation support to the consumer. In the real world, commercial transactions take into account many other parameters both quantitative and qualitative such as product quality, speed, reputation, after sales service, etc. This paper discusses how these multiple attributes can be captured to augment standard negotiation processes in order to support electronic market transactions. Using a combination of utility theory and multicriteria decision-making, we propose heuristic algorithms to discover potential trades. In addition, the approach is included within a larger framework that incorporates market-signaling mechanisms. This not only allows for the systematic evolution of negotiation positions among buyers and sellers but can ultimately lead towards improving both market transparency and efficiency. To illustrate the multiple criteria model coupled with the dynamic market signaling framework, we report in this paper the implementation of a Web-based clearinghouse that serves the real estate market.     

Putting Ethics on the Agenda for Real Estate Agents

This article uses sociological role theory to help understand ethical challenges faced by Norwegian real estate agents. The article begins with an introductory case, and then briefly examines the strengths and limitations of using legal definitions and rules for understanding real estate agency and real estate agent ethics. It goes on to argue that the ethical challenges of real estate agency can be described and understood as a system of conflicting roles with associated rights and duties, in particular sales agent, intermediary and adviser sub-roles. The arguments are developed using exploratory findings from a survey of Norwegian real estate agents and from several focus groups. The article then suggests the use of various intranet tools as a kind of action research aimed at putting ethics on the real estate agents’ agenda, working to develop a collective conscience and collective self- criticism among the agents, and, in doing so, building bridges between academic research and the practical working world of the agents.     

Retail networks and real estate: the case of Swiss luxury watches in China and Southeast Asia

Shopping centers are among the most significant places to sell luxury goods in East Asia. However, the relations between retail networks of luxury companies and access to land and real estate still need to be addressed. On the one hand, an extensive literature highlights how the turn to luxury industry since the 1990s has enabled some European countries to maintain their comparative advantage on the global market and at the same time to keep a significant part of their production non-globalized. Yet, an issue that remains to be addressed is the way European luxury companies are able to enter and expand their sales networks in emerging countries. On the other hand, while real estate has become a major economic circuit in East Asia, there is still a lack of research about the property industry and companies’ concrete strategies and business models. This article is hence an exploratory study that tackles the issue of real estate within the strategies of the main actors of the Swiss watch industry, namely Swatch Group, Richemont, and LVMH, which have massively invested in their retail network in China and East Asia since the 1990s.     

Securitized and Direct Real Estate Factors in the Pricing of US Bank Stocks

This article analyzes the role of securitized and direct real estate risks in the pricing of US bank stocks. Real estate risk measures are drawn from the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts (NAREIT) and NCREIF indexes. Beside the real estate, the other risk exposures considered are the market, the term, and the default premiums. The period covered runs from February 1990 to December 2015. GMM estimates of conditional multifactor models report considerable evidence in favor of real estate risk in US bank stocks.     

‘A fraud,a drunkard,and a worthless scamp’: estate agents,regulation, and Realtors in the interwar period

The estate agency industry played a key role in the growth of the interwar property market. An important feature of the industry was the low barriers to entry, particularly in terms of regulating practitioners. Yet repeated attempts were made to introduce mandatory licensing of estate agents during this period, all of which failed. This article explores why these attempts were instigated, by whom, and why they failed. It utilises the comparison with the successful introduction of licensing for real estate brokers in the US. The article argues that the desire for a professional identity fuelled these regulatory efforts, and that industry specific endogenous tensions led to their failure. In doing so, this article informs our knowledge of both the interwar development of this key service industry, and of the concepts used to analyse regulation more generally.     

An empirical investigation of framing effects in negotiations: A study of single‐family home sales

This paper integrates Prospect Theory and the concept of framing in a study of consumer negotiated pricing in a real estate context. Building on previously conducted experimental designs, a field survey indicated that home sellers using sales price as a reference point display greater willingness to make concessions than those who use equity as their reference point. Further, the third‐party influence of the realtor was shown to alter Prospect Theory predictions so that even equity‐based sellers became concessionary. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Expropriation risk and housing prices: Evidence from an emerging market

This paper examines the microeconomic determinants of residential real estate prices in Caracas, Venezuela, using a private database containing 17,526 transactions from 2008 to 2009. The particular institutional characteristics of many countries in Latin America, and Venezuela in particular, where land invasions and expropriations (with only partial compensation) have been common threats to property owners, provide us with an opportunity to test the effects of these risks on housing prices using a unique database. The effect of these risks on property prices is negative and significant. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to quantify these impacts in the Hedonic pricing literature applied to real estate. Size, the number of parking spaces, the age of the property, the incidence of crime, and the average income in the neighborhood are significant determinants of prices. Finally, this paper analyzes the microeconomic determinants of housing prices at the municipal level.     

美国和欧洲不动产投资信托的现代发展及展望

不动产投资信托是依照商业信托原理设计出的投资工具。依照其原理,首先由信托机构面向公众公开发行或定向私募发行房地产投资信托受益凭证筹集资金,将其投向房地产项目、房地产相关权利或房地产证券等,投资所得利润按比例分配给投资者。与其他投资手段相比,不动产投资信托具有流动性强、稳定性好、收益水平高、风险分散等优点。因此,不动产投资信托在短短的几十年间风靡全球20多个国家。文章以美国不动产投资信托的历史发展作为分析基础,主要就欧盟各国的不动产投资信托制度进行了比较研究,最后就未来欧盟建立统一的不动产投资信托的必要性和可能性进行了评价,并指出了其面临的困难和需要解决的问题。     

CUSFTA effects: A joint consideration of trade and multinational activities

This paper estimates the effects of the Canada–US Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA) on trade, sales of foreign affiliates of multinational enterprises, and total bilateral commerce (aggregate of both trade ands sales of foreign affiliates) in the manufacturing sector. The empirical investigation is carried out over a panel dataset covering the US bilateral transactions with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries for the period 1983–1998. The empirical specification is guided by a gravity-based model that accounts for trade and the operation of foreign affiliates as alternative modes of accessing foreign markets. The results show that the CUSFTA induced an increase in inward and outward trade between the US and Canada, but also led to a significant reduction in sales of their foreign affiliates in the corresponding CUSFTA partner country. This outcome implies that the trade-generating effect of the CUSFTA is overstated.     

Sales management: Learning and innovation in Japan

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to examine ways to promote learning, based on four empirical studies of salespeople and sales departments in Japan. First, analyses of survey data of 192 real estate salespeople indicated that customer- and goal achievement-oriented sales beliefs enhanced experiential learning at work. Second, analyses of data of 193 sales departments indicated that customer orientation in sales departments promotes innovation by facilitating task conflict and preventing process conflict. Third, analyses of survey research of 199 sales departments indicated that behavior-based and knowledge-based management control systems are effective at promoting learning and innovation. Finally, a case study of Nippon Boehringer Ingelheim (NBI) revealed several ways to facilitate learning using a behavior-based sales management control system. Theoretical implications for sales management systems were examined.     

不动产税制改革的产权瓶颈探析

不动产税是对不动产产权的征税,产权保护是不动产税制良好运行的法律基础。由于我国目前不动产产权格局是城乡二元结构、房地二元结构和城市多种产权性质的房产并立,致使房地产市场滞留多种产权问题。因此,不动产税的开征是产权保护工作中的推进器,而产权保护则为不动产税的开征奠定了良好的法律基础环境。     

A learning-oriented decision-making process for real estate brokerage service evaluation

Real estate brokers or realtors are expected to possess superior knowledge of their local markets and typically require commissions in return for their services in real estate sales. To justify these commissions, it is important to evaluate brokerage service performance. We develop a learning-oriented decision-making process for evaluating real estate brokerage services, which concentrates on understanding the nature, the role, and the interaction of the evaluation aspects of real estate brokerage service quality by integrating cognitive maps and the Decision EXpert approach. Results suggest that this framework permits new rudiments to be considered in the realtor decision-making and sales process, facilitating transparency, and understanding of realtor functions that may lead to recommendations to improve the performance and quality of these functions. Avenues for future research are also presented.     

New Technology in Shopping: Forecasting Electronic Shopping With the Use of a Neuro-Fuzzy System

This article presents the application of neuro-fuzzy techniques in forecasting a new technology in shopping. Neural networks have been used successfully to forecast time series due to their significant properties of treating nonlinear data with self-learning capability. However, neural networks suffer the difficulty of dealing with qualitative information and the “black box” syndrome that more or less limits their applications in practice. To overcome the drawbacks of neural networks, in this study, we proposed a fuzzy neural network that is a class of adaptive networks functionally equivalent to a fuzzy inference system. The results derived from the experiment based on electronic sales indicated that the suggested fuzzy neural network could be an efficient system to forecast a new technology in shopping. Experimental results also show that the neuro-fuzzy approach outperforms the other two conventional models (AR and ARMA).     

The real estate effects of e-commerce for supermarkets in the Netherlands

Internet sales are increasing; that is also true for supermarkets. The situation in the Netherlands is no exception. Currently, the turnover in this part of the retail market is still limited, but it is to be expected that also for supermarkets a substantial part will be sold online in the near future. The most important question in this article is how supermarket real estate will be affected by e-commerce. In interviews we asked real estate and e-commerce managers of eight Dutch supermarket chains about their plans and expectations. Although they did not expect major changes in their real estate portfolios, we have seen supermarkets building various pick-up facilities and dedicated pick centres during 2014. Last year also showed a change in the usual market positions. In the past mainly the market leader, Albert Heijn, had been developing special real estate such as dedicated pick centres and pick-up points, whereas the other supermarkets only made changes in the layout of their stores. Since last year, however, the latter category has definitively been catching up.     

An Exploratory Analysis of the Impact of Salesperson Customer-Orientation on Sales Force Productivity

Abstract

Consumer sovereignty is a concept that is well-established in the marketing literature. It is widely assumed the customer satisfaction is a crucial variable in determining the long-run prosperity of a business. Since the sales force often has the most contact with the customer, it seems logical that their efforts toward satisfying the client would be imperative. The selling orientation-customer orientation (SOCO) scale developed by Saxe and Weitz (1982) was used to determine the customer-orientation of 180 real estate sales personnel. The results of the research indicate that real estate sales representatives can practice customer-oriented selling without fear of losing sales due to their being too “soft” in their selling methods. In addition, the results indicate that companies wishing to enhance their sales personnel's level of customer-orientation may do so through professionally designed sales training programs.     

基于卡尔曼滤波方法的房价泡沫测算——以北京市场为例

常见的房地产市场价格泡沫估计模型普遍存在参数估计有偏的缺陷,为了更有效地估计房价泡沫,可以将动态最优模型与状态空间滤波方法相结合,通过构建一个动态最优局部均衡模型来刻画不存在投机因素的房地产市场基础供求关系,同时在把基本房价视作状态变量的基础上给出决定基本房价的状态空间模型,从而计算出房价泡沫。以北京市为例,使用2005年1季度至2009年4季度的相关数据,利用卡尔曼滤波方法对状态空间模型进行的测算显示,北京商品房市场的价格泡沫出现于2006年4季度,且近三年来的平均泡沫程度达到26.5%。     

物业税改革如何破冰?——破解物业税改革的不动产产权制度瓶颈

产权清晰是征税的前提,物业税的实质是对不动产产权征税。经济社会双转轨时期,中国不动产产权制度几经变迁,目前形成了具有中国特色的极其复杂的产权格局:城乡二元结构、房地二元结构、城市多种产权性质的房产并存。现行不动产产权转轨制度背景使得物业税改革遭受产权法律瓶颈。物业税制改革要"破冰",应着手解决阻碍其发展的产权体制障碍:过渡期直接以不动产本身为纳税人解决产权残缺导致的征税问题,长远则必须建立健全不动产产权法律体系。     

Determinants of repurchase intentions of real estate agent services: Direct and indirect effects of perceived ethicality

Research on the psychological determinants of consumer repurchase decisions for professional services is limited. The authors focus on real estate agents and develop a model of determinants of repurchase intentions of agent services. The model was tested on a sample of clients (property sellers) for a Scandinavian real estate agent. The perceived ethicality of the service provider was found to influence repurchase intentions in three different ways. Clients’ co-production motivation moderated (increased) the effect of perceived ethicality. The findings have important implications for researchers and managers of real estate agent services.     

信用扩张的合理界限与房价波动研究

房地产业是资金密集型产业,它的供给与需求很大程度上由信用扩张程度来决定。而信用扩张的合理边界作为货币政策的目标,决定了房地产的繁荣程度与价格水平的高低。因此,货币政策对房价具有重要的影响。但是,由于所有的金融交易都存在着内在与外在的不稳定,这就需要一系列的金融制度安排来保证信用扩张边界的合理性。同样,由于金融制度不完全性、效应的滞后性及利益的渗透性,金融交易制度安排的缺陷可能成为房地产价格波动的制度性根源。由此,本文从货币政策的制度因素来讨论与研究信用扩张过度与房价的波动关系,并希望从中寻求对房价波动更为一般性的解释。