On the Class of Erlang Mixtures with Risk Theoretic Applications

Abstract

A wide variety of distributions are shown to be of mixed-Erlang type. Useful computational formulas result for many quantities of interest in a risk-theoretic context when the claim size distribution is an Erlang mixture. In particular, the aggregate claims distribution and related quantities such as stop-loss moments are discussed, as well as ruin-theoretic quantities including infinitetime ruin probabilities and the distribution of the deficit at ruin. A very useful application of the results is the computation of finite-time ruin probabilities, with numerical examples given. Finally, extensions of the results to more general gamma mixtures are briefly examined.     

On the Gerber-Shiu Discounted Penalty Function for the Ordinary Renewal Risk Model with Constant Interest

Abstract

In this paper we study the Gerber-Shiu discounted penalty function for the ordinary renewal risk model modified by the constant interest on the surplus. Explicit answers are expressed by an infinite series, and a relational formula for some important joint density functions is derived. Applications of the results to the compound Poisson model are given. Finally, a lower bound and an upper bound for the ultimate ruin probability are derived.     

商业银行城市更新业务实践及风险管控

2019年的中央经济工作会议首次强调了"城市更新"概念.十九届五中全会通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十四个五年规划和二 三五年远景目标的建议》进一步明确提出,推进以人为核心的新型城镇化.可以预见,城市更新既是新一轮战略规划、布局调整、城市内涵和功能提升的重点领域,也是存量资源盘活和存量资源价值提升的聚焦领...     

A Class of Gaussian Hybrid Processes for Modeling Financial Markets

This paper proposes a one-factor model of financial markets using a class of Gaussian process that can be decomposed into a Brownian motion and an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process. It is shown that this “hybrid” process is obtained as a continuous-time scaling limit of the differenced first-order autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA(1,1,1)) process. Parameter estimations using an ARIMA(1,1,1) framework and its variance ratio test show the accuracy of the proposed model. Construction of the one-factor commodity futures price model is presented as an application. A multidimensional extension of the hybrid process is also presented in the Appendix.     

On a Class of Asymptotically Risk-Efficient Sequential Procedures

A class of sequential procedures is developed for the point estimation of the parameter(s) of a population under a family of loss functions plus cost function of the general form. Condition on the initial sample size is determined which ensures the asymptotic ‘risk-efficiency’ of the proposed class. By means of various examples, it is shown that many sequential point estimation problems can be handled with the help of the proposed class.     

Ruin Problems for Phase-Type(2) Risk Processes

In this paper we consider a risk process in which claim inter-arrival times have a phase-type(2) distribution, a distribution with a density satisfying a second order linear differential equation. We consider some ruin related problems. In particular, we consider the compound geometric representation of the infinite time survival probability, as well as the (defective) distributions of the surplus immediately prior to ruin and of the deficit at ruin. We also consider explicit solutions for the infinite time ruin probability in the case where the individual claim amount distribution is phase-type.     

Dividend Barrier Strategies in A Renewal Risk Model with Generalized Erlang Interarrival Times

Abstract

We consider a renewal risk model with generalized Erlang distributed interarrival times. We assume that the phases of the interarrival time can be observed. In order to solve de Finetti's dividend problem, we first consider phasewise barrier strategies and look for the optimal barriers when the initial capital is 0. For exponentially distributed claim sizes, we show that the barrier strategy is optimal among all admissible strategies. For the special case of Erlang(2) interarrival times, we calculate the value function and the optimal barriers.     

风险犹在2002年第一季度国际金融综述

2002年第一季度国际金融市场出现较大的波动与调整,其中受到经济基本面和前景的影响因素更为重要,尤其是经济环境与政策的变化,成为金融基本价格的调整与波动的最重要变数,而金融商品价格的变化以及趋势又直接影响着经济信心和政策的变化.因此,2002年第一季度国际金融市场主要价格的较大波动使全球投资组合面临较为艰难的调整,基本处于观望与盘整之中,但金融驾驭与协调应对水平和能力的上升却起到重要的稳定与保障作用.     

On a Non-linear Risk Analysis for Stock Market Indexes

We propose a method to detect early signs of a potential major crash in the market from only the information of the time series representing its stock market data. As reinforcement of the abnormality test Test(ABN) developed in Okabe, Matsuura, and Klimek (International Journal of Pure and Applied Mathematics, 3, 443–484, 2002), we introduce in this paper a risk graph to measure abnormality of time series by using the non-linear prediction analysis in the theory of KM₂O-Langevin equations. By applying it to real data of stock market indexes on the Black Monday of 1987 and those during the past 7 years from January 2000 to December 2006, we investigate whether we can detect early signs of a potential major crash in the market by watching the behavior of the risk graph. An erratum to this article can be found at     

On Viable Diffusion Price Processes of the Market Portfolio

The assumption that the market portfolio follows a specified diffusion process implies, in a simple equilibrium framework, that the representative individual must have a certain utility function which is identified in the paper. Not every diffusion process is viable, i.e., can be “endogenized” to be the market portfolio's price process in such an equilibrium model. The paper provides necessary and sufficient conditions for viability which imply that viable diffusion processes constitute a rather restricted family.     

On Intraday Risk Premia

This article presents a framework for analyzing the dynamic effects of anticipated large demand pressures on asset risk premia. We show that large institutions who can time their entry into the market will trade either at the open, or during periods of unusual demand pressures. We show that if these institutions do enter later in the day, they trade in the same direction as institutions which provide liquidity continuously; institutions therefore appear to exhibit “herding” behavior. We also explore how changing the uncertainty of demand pressures late in the day affects trading costs throughout the day.     

论职大班级的系统化管理

本文通过深入剖析当代职大学生的特点为基础,从班级的心理管理、文化管理、民主管理和思想管理四个方面论证班级的系统化管理,论证了班主任在班级管理中的核心作用,论证了班级系统化管理对当代职大学生身心健康发展的整体正效应。     

浅谈高校图书馆在构建校园信息化建设中的优势条件

高校图书馆凭借自身文献信息中心、服务中心等优势,为全校提供多功能、全方位的信息服务,也使自身资源得以利用,从而不断提高自己.     

On the Price of Risk Under a Regime Switching CGMY Process

In this paper, we study option pricing under a regime-switching exponential Lévy model. Assuming that the coefficients are time-dependent and modulated by a finite state Markov chain, we generalise the work in Momeya and Morales (Method Comput Appl Probab, 2014, doi: 10.1007/s11009-014-9399-2), and Siu and Yang (Acta Mathe Appl Sin 2:369–388, 2009), that is, we use a pricing method based on the Esscher transform conditional on the information available on the Markov chain. We also carry out numerical analysis, to show the impact of the risk induced by the underlying Markov chain on the price of the option.     

浅析船舶抵押中的风险控制

船舶融资比一般商业融资更加复杂,银行为了控制融资风险,通常倾向以船舶抵押作为担保方式。但在船舶抵押过程中,银行依然会面对多重风险。本文将针对船旗国、保险、租约、美国《1990年油污法》下的银行责任等法律风险进行分析,并提出相应的控制方法。     

对我国商业银行卡"换芯"发展方向的研究

本文首先分析了IC(Integrated Circuit Card)芯片卡的特点及其取代我国各商业银行发行的磁条卡的必要性,结合目前我国商业银行卡使用情况,一种新的IC复合卡(磁条卡与芯片卡合二为一)将有助于我国商业银行卡逐步向国际金融支付应用标准过渡;其次介绍了该卡构成及使用方法;最后分析了该卡在我国广泛的应用前景.     

衍生品交易实时风险管理系统的设计与开发

我国衍生品交易市场现正处于一个新的发展阶段,商品期权和金融衍生品交易即将上马,国际间的衍生品交易规模也日益扩大,有效的风险管理对有关管理方面来说将是一个极大的挑战。计算机实时交易风险管理系统是其中不可缺少的重要一环,否则风险管理将是一句空话。本文对各种较为成熟的衍生品风险计算模式如传统的Strategy、Greek和目前流行的VAR、SPAN、TIMS等逐一作了分析比较,对各种风险管理系统的功能特点及相应的计算机技术作了对比介绍,希望能对国内早日研发出自己的实时风险管理系统有所帮助。     

试论我国商业银行信贷风险预警系统的建立

信贷风险是商业银行所有业务风险中最主要的风险,有效防控风险的前提是进行准确的风险识别,做出合理的风险分析并及时预警.本文借鉴国内外商业银行信贷风险防范的经验与成果,针对国内商业银行经营管理模式和经营环境,提出适应本国银行发展需求的、以核心指标和辅助指标构成的信贷风险预警指标体系,拟采用层次分析法(AHP)和本征向量法(TE)作为构建风险预警模型的算法,建立适应国情并且顺应现代化银行发展趋势的新型商业银行信贷风险预警系统.通过构建商业银行信贷风险预警系统对信贷风险进行监测和分析,将有效控制和降低信贷风险.     

证券公司财务风险管理研究

证券公司各类风险最终基本上都会转化为财务风险.本文通过分析证券公司财务风险的基本特征和财务风险点,设计了全面、系统、逻辑一致的风险识别和评估的指标框架及风险动态监测框架.