中国金融市场化进程对投资的影响研究

本文从考查金融市场化这一中国经济转型期制度变迁的主要方面出发,在引入金融市场化指数的Ndikumana模型基础上,应用Panel Data模型分析方法对金融市场化进程及其相关四个方面(金融中介市场化、政府行为市场化改革、金融市场自由化、金融对外开放)与投资间的影响以及东中西部间差异进行了研究。结论认为:首先,中国金融市场化对投资存在显著影响;其次,在全国层面上,金融市场化对投资的影响大于其他四个方面,而且金融结构的不同对投资的影响存在差异性;其三,在地区层面上,东中西部的金融市场化进程对地区投资的影响显著,地区间总体的差异呈现西部和中部大于东部的趋势。     

金融结构与投资资本供给结构的非对称机制

通过数理推演和马尔科夫区制转移模型分析,本文结果显示:(1)不论投资资本供给结构处于"优化区制"还是"恶化区制"内,金融结构失衡程度的加深均不利于投资资本供给结构的持续优化;(2)投资资本供给结构存在自稳定器机制,有着震荡式熨平波动的自发倾向;(3)当"稳增长"的目标权重上升时,投资资本供给结构会出现恶化倾向;(4)投...     

股票流动性对公司资本结构的影响研究

本文分析了流动性对公司资本结构的影响。理论分析表明,一个公司股权交易流动性的提高,使得公司股权融资成本得以降低,公司更倾向于采用增发、配股等股权融资的方式融资,这会降低公司的财务杠杆率。同时,借鉴资本结构动态调整的思想分析,发现个股流动性越高,资本结构的调整速度越快。本文基于2002—2010沪深两市发行的非金融业A股数据,采用面板数据回归等方法研究了股票流动性等因素对公司资本结构的影响,本文的经验结果支持这一理论假设。     

Capital Structure, Information Acquisition and Investment Decisions in an Industry Framework

This paper analyzes the relationship between a firm's capital structure and its information acquisition prior to capital budgeting decisions. It is found that low-growth industries can sustain a large number of levered firms. In these industries, leverage is negatively related to a firm's incentive to acquire information during the capital budgeting process. In contrast, high-growth industries only sustain a small number of levered firms. In these industries, levered firms acquire more information than all-equity financed firms. The model yields empirical predictions regarding the effects of leverage on the expected amount and the volatility of corporate investment. While leverage does not affect firm value, highly levered firms generate a more volatile cash flow than firms with low debt levels.     

资本账户开放对企业投资效率的影响研究

依据2001—2017年95个国家的上市企业数据,考量资本账户开放对企业投资效率的作用。结果显示：资本账户开放能提高企业投资效率,缓解投资不足,抑制过度投资;机制检验表明,资本账户开放通过提高市场竞争、缓解融资约束以及提高风险承担水平三个渠道提高企业投资效率。异质性检验显示,流入方向的资本账户开放对企业投资效率的提升更大,资本账户开放主要提高了金融市场发展程度高的国家、外部融资依赖度高的行业以及高杠杆率企业的投资效率。鉴于此,建议有序开放资本账户,加快金融市场建设,积极融入全球资本市场发展。     

Controlling Investment Decisions: Depreciation- and Capital Charges

This paper examines a multiperiod principal-agent model in which a divisional manager has superior information regarding the profitability of an investment project available to his division. The manager also contributes to the periodic operating cash flows of his division through personally costly effort. We demonstrate that it is optimal for the principal to delegate the investment decision and to base the manager's compensation on the residual income performance measure. Our analysis points to a class of depreciation rules and to a particular capital charge rate which together ensure that a profitable (unprofitable) project makes a positive (negative) contribution to residual income in every period. As a consequence, the compensation parameters for each period can be chosen freely so as to address the moral hazard problems without impacting the manager's investment incentives.     

Firing Costs and Capital Structure Decisions

I exploit the adoption of state‐level labor protection laws as an exogenous increase in employee firing costs to examine how the costs associated with discharging workers affect capital structure decisions. I find that firms reduce debt ratios following the adoption of these laws, with this result stronger for firms that experience larger increases in firing costs. I also document that, following the adoption of these laws, a firm's degree of operating leverage rises, earnings variability increases, and employment becomes more rigid. Overall, these results are consistent with higher firing costs crowding out financial leverage via increasing financial distress costs.     

Managerial Entrenchment and Capital Structure Decisions

We study associations between managerial entrenchment and firms' capital structures, with results generally suggesting that entrenched CEOs seek to avoid debt. In a cross-sectional analysis, we find that leverage levels are lower when CEOs do not face pressure from either ownership and compensation incentives or active monitoring. In an analysis of leverage changes, we find that leverage increases in the aftermath of entrenchment-reducing shocks to managerial security, including unsuccessful tender offers, involuntary CEO replacements, and the addition to the board of major stockholders.     

资本账户开放、金融风险与最优外汇储备

全球金融危机之后,东亚经济体外汇储备出现新的动态。这表明资本账户开放条件下金融危机风险是最优外汇储备规模决策的重要变量。在传统的面板数据回归模型的基础上,通过引入金融危机发生概率这一变量,新的最优外汇储备测算模型获得了更强的解释力。拟合结果表明大多数东亚经济体近年来甚至存在储备不足,东亚经济体持有超额外汇储备确实是一个伪命题。但是,这一结果只有用极度谨慎,也就是金融危机恐惧才能解释。此外,中国即便考虑了金融危机恐惧,外汇储备仍显过度。     

数字化转型、资本结构与投资效率——基于制造业上市公司数据分析

依据2015—2022年沪深A股制造业上市公司数据,运用文本分析方法,构建企业数字化转型指标,考量数字化转型、资本结构与投资效率之间的关系。结果显示：企业数字化转型通过优化资本结构抑制企业非效率投资行为,对国有企业和过度投资企业的作用更明显,且企业非债务税盾在过度投资和投资不足两种状态下作用效果相反。鉴于此,加快数字化转型进程,做好目标资本结构测算模型设计,实施差异化优惠政策,提升行业投资效率,提高制造业全球竞争力。     

Foreign Banks and the Dual Effect of Financial Liberalization

In emerging countries, credit market liberalization is often motivated with the financial deepening generated by the entry of foreign financial institutions. However, there is a risk that liberalization may benefit internationally active, export‐oriented businesses at the expense of domestically oriented ones. This paper models a two‐sector economy in which foreign lenders are more efficient than local lenders at extracting value from internationally tradable collateral assets. Under some conditions the entry of foreign lenders eases entrepreneurs’ access to the credit market and raises asset prices and output, but in other circumstances it reduces the depth of the credit market and depresses the price of nontradables and output. Liberalization can have a contractionary impact by inducing a reallocation of credit from the nontradables to the tradables sector.     

税率锚定效应与企业投资决策

已有文献证实了高管过度自信等非理性因素对企业投资决策的影响,但尚未有文献研究锚定心理在投资决策中的作用。税收政策连续性不足会使得企业实际税率充满不确定性,高管在预测未来实际税率时很可能会非理性地锚定当期的高税率,进而产生税率锚定行为。本文研究这种非理性的税率锚定行为对企业投资决策的影响,结果发现:企业投资决策中存在显著的税率锚定行为,对高税率的锚定显著降低了企业未来的投资支出,且内在锚效应(纵向对比)强于外在锚效应(横向对比)。进一步地,我们发现经验更丰富的高管有助于缓解投资中的税率锚定效应,但更大的税率波动性加剧了这种效应,最终降低了公司业绩和价值。本文研究表明,控制投资中的税率锚定行为,有利于提高投资效率和企业价值,同时也表明保持宏观税收政策连续性有利于促进企业健康可持续发展。     

Growth Opportunities and Investment Decisions: A New Perspective on the Cost of Capital

This paper shows that it is not always correct to make an upward adjustment to the stock beta in calculating the hurdle rate for capital budgeting even when the project under consideration is riskier than existing assets. The paper also shows that the correct hurdle rate is smaller than the market capitalization rate calculated from the firm's stock beta when the project under consideration has the same risk as existing assets. In addition, it is shown that the market capitalization rate will be an underestimate (overestimate) of the correct hurdle rate when the risk of future assets is greater (smaller) than both the risk of assets in place and that of future capital expenditures. These new results are direct consequences of the insight that the firm's investment opportunities are in fact real call options written on underlying assets.     

论金融自由化对金融稳定的挑战

加入WTO与金融自由化对金融稳定和挑战关系到一国应否实现自由化问题。自由化及其引起的资本流动能够加大金融风险，对金融稳定产生冲击并给监管带来挑战，但自由化仅暴露和加剧了原金融体制的弊端及其掩盖的问题，并不是造成金融危机的根本原因。故实行金融开发及实行配套的宏观经济环境和金融监管治理是金融业的根本出路和努力方向。     

The Effects of Reversible Investment on Capital Structure and Credit Risks

We propose a structural model with an optimal switching of diffusion regimes that integrates a wide range of investment reversibility. The default boundary and switching thresholds are endogenously determined, and they enable us to comprehend the interrelated problems of the investment decision, capital structure, and credit risks. We examine not only the under/overinvestment but also the under/overdisinvestment. The leverage ratio decreases when the firm has an option to invest in a reversible project, which can alleviate the capital structure puzzle. Furthermore, the model significantly reduces the wide dispersion of yield spreads depending on the credit grade of bonds.     

基于金融发展水平的证券市场开放对经济增长的影响

本文在索洛—斯旺框架下构建了一个分析证券市场开放对经济增长影响的理论模型,模型显示:金融开放后的经济收敛速度要大于封闭时的经济收敛速度,金融发展水平会促进金融开放带来的经济增长效应。通过金砖国家的数据对理论模型的结论进行实证检验显示:用名义的AREAER指标、实际的EW指标和资本流动指标度量的证券市场开放度的系数均显著为正,说明证券市场开放有利于经济增长;证券市场发展水平会促进该经济增长效应,而银行业发展水平对该经济增长效应的影响不显著。     

Regulatory Climate and Electric Utility Capital Structure Decisions

A theoretical model of the role of regulatory climate in the capital structure decisions of regulated electric utilities is developed that indicates managers can mitigate the consequences of unfavorable regulation by increasing the proportion of debt in the capital structure. The increase in leverage is limited by increased bankruptcy risk with higher levels of debt. The model predicts that utilities will react to their regulatory climate by adjusting capital structure. This behavior may be an undesirable consequence of the regulatory process. Empirical support for the model, both cross sectional and over time, is provided.     

The Role of Financial Appraisal in Decisions to Acquire Advanced Manufacturing Technology

There have been suggestions that the financial appraisal techniques which are commonly applied to capital expenditure proposals may be unsuitable for evaluating proposals concerned with the acquisition of advanced manufacturing technology. This paper reviews the arguments advanced to justify exempting such proposals from financial appraisal. It is argued that the case against financial appraisal is not substantiated. The difficulties cited by the critics of financial appraisal can be resolved by better management of the appraisal process.