Price determination and dynamic adjustments: An inverse demand system approach to meat products in the United States

In this study the process of retail meat price determination is depicted in the form of an inverse demand system taking into consideration the dynamic adjustments present in monthly consumption data. The general dynamic framework identifies both long run and short run effects in a systematic manner and allows direct estimation of the long run price and scale flexibilities that are consistent with theory. The empirical application based on monthly U.S. meat products data provides reasonable and promising results.The authors are senior econometrician, Department of Risk Management, TRS, American Express Co., Phoenix, and assistant professor, Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, respectively. The work was performed when the first author was an assistant research scientist at the Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Department of Economics, Iowa State University, Ames. Journal Paper No. J-15784 of the Iowa Agriculture and Home Economics Experiment Station, Ames, Iowa. Project No. 3109.     

Small firms in Portugal: a selective survey of stylized facts,economic analysis,and policy implications

I survey a number of stylized facts pertaining to the dynamics of firm entry, growth, and exit in competitive industries. I focus particularly on data for Portugal, although I also consider, for comparison purposes, data from other countries. I then present a series of theoretical models that attempt to explain the stylized facts and evaluate the welfare impact of market distortions. Finally, I derive a number of policy implications, all centered around the notion of economic mobility.

The impact of environmental regulation on productivity in German industries

The objective of this paper is to adjust a traditional total factor productivity (TFP) measure for the direct effect of environmental regulation on material and capital input. For this purpose we consider the fact that part of material input and pollution abatement capital have not been used to increase output but to cover the cost of using the environment as a factor of production. Therefore TFP growth rates are lower if part of the material input is allocated to abatement activities instead of producing output. We propose to treat compliance with environmental regulation as an unproductive input linked to the use of productive material input. Our aim is to answer and discuss two questions: How to measure the effect of environmental regulation on TFP, and does the effect matter. We examine data from 1975–1991 for ten pollution intensive German industries.We would like to thank Cornelia Oßwald for valuable research assistance. We are especially grateful to two anonymous referees for many helpful comments.     

Monetary and real shocks in a monetary Union: The Swiss case

We analyze to what extent real and monetary shocks affect price levels and real exchange rates in seven Swiss regions. A structural time series model is set up and estimated using the Kalman filter under two assumptions on the persistence of monetary shocks. We find that the variability of changes in price levels is mainly due to real shocks. The variance of monetary shocks is small but the monetary component of inflation differences across regions differs from zero with some persistence. As the Swiss case shows this does not seem to be a major obstacle to forming a monetary union.We thank Ernst Baltensperger, Tobias Rötheli, and participants at the Econometric Society European Meeting 1994 for stimulating discussions. The paper has also benefitted from constructive comments of two anonymous referees. Both authors gratefully acknowledge financial support provided by the Swiss National Foundation through Grants no: 8210-040206 (T.J.) and 12-40498.94 (C.L.).     

Public capital stock and state productivity growth: Further evidence from an error components model

The contribution of different types of public infrastructure on private production is investigated using time-series of cross-section data for the 48 contiguous states over the period 1970–1986. A Cobb-Douglas production function is estimated with unobserved state-specific effects. Measurement errors in public capital stock and its components are detected and rectified.We would like to thank Baldev Raj and an anonymous referee for helpful comments. Also, Timothy J. Gronberg and Kay McAllister who thoroughly read the earlier draft and offered many constructive suggestions. We are, however, solely responsible for any remaining errors. The data set used in this research was generously provided by Alicia H. Munnell and Leah Cook of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. Nat Pinnoi acknowledges the research support provided by the Texas Transportation Institute.     

The impact of the Paasche-Laspeyres choice upon econometric results

Does it make any difference to econometric results whether ones uses the Laspeyres or Paasche index? In general, the divergence between these two is small, suggesting that index choice makes little difference to econometric results. We estimate 72 Malthusian models and because the Paasche and Laspeyres indices we use show below average divergence, these reslts should be conservative. We find that parameters differ substantially, that parameter signs can be reversed, thatr ²s change markedly and that hypothesis test results are reversed. These findings indicate the importance of estimating exact indices.     

An overlooked explanation of the declining saving rate

With a socioeconomic model of the determinants of savings that takes into account variables reflecting the abrupt changes in the divorce rate that occurred during the 1970s and the 1980s in the U.S., the increase in women's participation in the labour force, and their greater investrnent in education, we explain part of the measured decline in the saving rate. The uncertainty generated by the increased likelihood of divorces encourages households and women, in particular, to substitute human capital to financial or physical capital for precautionary savings.The authors thank Anna J. Schwartz and Pierre Perron for helpful suggestions and Anne-Marie El Hakim for her dedicated assistance on this project. The comments of the editor and of an anonymous referee contributed to improve the final version of the paper. The project was financed, in part, by a grant of the Quebec FCAR Fund.     

New evidence on the convergence of international income from a group of 29 countries

This paper updates and extends the time-series evidence on the convergence of international incomes using a set of 29 countries over the period 1900–2001. Time-series tests for stochastic convergence are supplemented with tests which provide evidence on the notion of “β-convergence” predicted by the Solow model. The evidence indicates that the relative income series of 21 countries are consistent with stochastic convergence, and that β-convergence has occurred in at least 16 countries at some point during the twentieth century. Further examination of the properties of the β-convergence test provides anecdotal evidence of conditional convergence in three additional countries for which the convergence hypothesis was initially rejected. Consideration of convergence clubs strengthens the evidence in favor of convergence. Analysis of the cross-country dispersion of incomes over time also suggests that convergence has occurred over the 1900–2001 period, particularly within certain clubs, with structural breaks associated with World War II in many countries causing a break in the convergence process.      

Bayesian estimation of cointegrating thresholds in the term structure of interest rates

Threshold Error Correction Models are used to analyse the term structure of interest Rates. The paper develops and uses a generalisation of existing models that encompasses both the Band and Equilibrium threshold models of [Balke and Fomby ((1997) Threshold cointegration. Int Econ Rev 38(3):627–645)] and estimates this model using a Bayesian approach. Evidence is found for threshold effects in pairs of longer rates but not in pairs of short rates. The Band threshold model is supported in preference to the Equilibrium model.

Quarterly US unemployment: Cycles,seasons and asymmetries

This paper documents three stylized facts for the quarterly unemployment rate in the United States. Firstly, unemployment is asymmetric over the business cycle, i.e. it rises sharply in recessions and it falls slowly in expansions. Secondly, its seasonal fluctuations are not constant across the two business cycle stages in the sense that there is less seasonality in recession periods. Thirdly, the effect of shocks to the unemployment rate in expansions seem transitory, while this effect is permanent in recessions. Some implications of these stylized facts for empirical macroeconomics and seasonal adjustment are discussed.     

Portuguese emigration 1958-1985: some empirical evidence

Supplying work in the home country or abroad must be seen as the result of the same decisional process. If that is true, the same set of variables should be used to explain the participation in the labor market and the emigration rates.Based upon empirical results, we discuss some of the traditional conclusions of the economic literature. Our empirical results, for example, show that: 1) there is a strong support for considering home wages and the wages in the country of destination asymmetrically, 2) imperfections in the capital markets seem to play an important role when workers must pay for their moving expenses and 3) there is a differential in coefficients between the period before 1974 and after that date, as 1974 is the year most of the Central European countries changed their immigration policies.     

Learning and equilibrium as useful approximations: Accuracy of prediction on randomly selected constant sum games

There is a good deal of miscommunication among experimenters and theorists about how to evaluate a theory that can be rejected by sufficient data, but may nevertheless be a useful approximation. A standard experimental design reports whether a general theory can be rejected on an informative test case. This paper, in contrast, reports an experiment designed to meaningfully pose the question: “how good an approximation does a theory provide on average.” It focuses on a class of randomly selected games, and estimates how many pairs of experimental subjects would have to be observed playing a previously unexamined game before the mean of the experimental observations would provide a better prediction than the theory about the behavior of a new pair of subjects playing this game. We call this quantity the model’s equivalent number of observations, and explore its properties. This research was supported by a grant from the U.S. National Science Foundation and the USA–Israel Binational Science Foundation. We are very grateful for helpful conversations with David Budescu, Jerry Busemeyer, Gary Chamberlain, Paul Feigin, Dave Krantz, Jack Porter, Tom Wallsten, Wolfgang Viechtbauer, and Richard Zeckhauser.     

Testing for capital mobility: A random coefficients approach

This paper extends the Feldstein-Horioka (1980), Feldstein (1983) and subsequent studies on the degree of capital mobility, by adopting a random coefficients model. This approach is more general in that it permits inter-country variations in the degree of capital mobility to arise due to the differences in size as well as in other institutional or structural characteristics. In addition, it is a refinement of stochastic laws as defined by Pratt and Schlaifer (1984, 1988). Our results point to significant inter-country differences in the degree of capital mobility, thereby lending support to the random coefficients approach. In particular, our results indicate that, on average, the degree of capital mobility is much higher than implied by fixed coefficients approach. Finally, country size itself does not appear to bear a systematic relationship with the degree of capital mobility as suggested by Murphy (1984).We are grateful to two anonymous referees, and Baldev Raj, Editor of the journal for helpful comments and suggestions. The usual caveat applies.     

Alcohol content and demand for alcoholic beverages: A system approach

This paper examines how alcohol content affects the consumption of alcoholic beverages in Finland. Three different quality hypotheses are studied and compared: Fisher and Shell, Theil, and an additive one. The comparison of the hypotheses is based on quality elasticities implied by the hypotheses. The results show that, under all hypotheses, alcohol content positively affects the demand for alcoholic beverages, and this effect depends negatively on income. The results of the comparison of the hypotheses show that the additive fits the data best. However, the other hypotheses are almost as good: Fisher and Shell's hypothesis better than Theil's.I would like to thank K. Koskela, A. Nyberg, M. Salo, M. Stenius, and I. Suoniemi for their useful comments and suggestions. The author bears sole responsibility for any remaining errors.     

A family of inverse demand systems and choice of functional form

Barten's (1992) analysis of choice of functional form for quantity-dependent demand systems is extended to price-dependent or inverse demand systems. Alternative inverse demand systems combining the features of the Rotterdam inverse demand and almost ideal inverse demand systems are examined. Choice of functional form is made through a synthetic model which under appropriate restrictions yields the different inverse demand systems. The synthetic model itself can also be considered a more flexible specification.     

Stock prices,production and interest rates: Comparison of three European countries with the USA

This paper investigates the relationships between stock returns, changes in production, and changes in interest rates in three European countries: France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. The results obtained using annual data are much more conclusive than those obtained using quarterly data. Stock returns are affected by current changes in interest rates and by future changes in production. The dependence on changes in interest rates seems to be higher than on changes in production. Furthermore, the influence of future changes in production on stock returns diminishes substantially when contemporaneous changes in interest rates are taken into account. With reference to these points, the European markets behave in a similar fashion, but are in sharp contrast with the U.S. market.I am very grateful to Kay Davidson, Patric Hendershott and two anonymous referees for useful comments and suggestions. I am solely responsible for all remaining errors.     

On latitude and affluence: The equatorial grand canyon

Our objective is to explain per capita GDPs by the countries' latitude, using PPP-based data for 138 countries in 1985 (PPP = purchasing power parity). A simple approach is formulated which nevertheless accounts for as much as two-thirds of the variance of the per capita GDPs.Theil is the McKethan-Matherly Eminent Scholar Emeritus and Courtesy Professor of Food and Resource Economics, while Galvez is an Associate in Research of the Bureau of Economic and Business Research, both at the University of Florida (UF). We thank Sri Devi Deepak, Charles B. Moss and James L. Seale of the UF Food and Resource Economics Department for helpful discussions and Robert Summers of the University of Pennsylvania for making the data available to us.