UNIVERSAL INVESTMENT IN MARKETS WITH TRANSACTION COSTS

In this paper we investigate growth optimal investment in two-asset discrete-time markets with proportional transaction costs and no distributional assumptions on the market return sequences. We construct a policy with growth rate at least as large as any interval policy. Since interval policies are ε-optimal for independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) markets ( Iyengar 2002 ), it follows that our policy when employed in an i.i.d. market is able to "learn" the optimal interval policy and achieve growth optimality; in other words, it is a universal growth optimal policy for i.i.d. markets.     

Second Generation Electricity Reforms in Latin America and the California Paradigm

In this paper we discuss second-generation electricity reforms being formulated in Latin America and how they are being reshaped by the California crisis, which had stood as a paradigm, at least in theory, for fully competitive markets. We argue that the main lesson policy makers in Latin America should draw from the experience in California and other electricity markets around the world is that the liberalization of wholesale markets will not result in more competitive outcomes where market concentration is significant, final consumers are isolated from actual marginal production costs and capacity is tight. At least in the case of Argentina and Chile, the California crisis has had a “positive externality” by persuading policy makers, at least momentarily, to postpone liberalization reforms and make them realize the complexities in implementing competitive markets.     

Investor protection and dividend policy: The case of Islamic and conventional banks

This study examines the dividend policy behavior of Islamic and conventional banks operating in Arab markets. These banks operate in an environment of Sharia law and low levels of investor protection. Our results support the substitution agency model of dividends for Islamic banks, and Islamic banks use the dividend policy as a substitute mechanism for alleviating relatively more significant agency problems and higher risks of expropriation by insiders. In these markets, conventional banks operate in a more competitive environment and experience relatively less significant agency problems. In contrast to Islamic banks, conventional banks follow the outcome agency model of dividends.     

Delineating the nature and extent of the market for agricultural commodities

In this article, an approach is suggested for defining the nature and extent of geographic and product markets for agricultural commodities relying on the concept of instantaneous causality. The markets for rice are used for the empirical implementation of the approach. The results, based on both domestic and world prices, suggests that the extent of the geographic market changed between 1968 and 1986. This has obvious policy implications.     

国债规模:在财政与金融之间寻求平衡

本文从财政政策和货币政策协调配合角度,探讨了国债在金融体系中的特殊地位和作用,着重分析了国债市场作为核心金融市场在提供市场流动性方面的不可替代的作用.本文的政策含义就是,为了给我国的金融市场运行创造一个良好的基础,我们的国债政策应当超越单纯财政的财政眼光.     

Effiziente Finanzmärkte und soziale Dynamik

This year’s Nobel laureates in economics have a different understanding about the functioning of financial markets. However, this overall contradiction — which is even more pronounced in their policy statements — is no contradiction regarding scientific insights. In this respect they rather complement each other, even regarding the topic of (in)efficient financial markets.     

Instability in the dividend policy of the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) corporations: evidence from an emerging market

Dividend policy behaviour of corporations operating in emerging markets is significantly different from the widely accepted dividend policy behaviour of corporations operating in developed markets. This study provides evidence from the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE), an emerging European stock market, and analyses empirically whether the ISE corporations follow stable cash dividend policies in a regulatory environment that imposed mandatory dividend policies. Unlike the empirical results supporting the stable dividend policy behaviour of corporations operating in developed markets, the empirical results show that the ISE corporations follow unstable cash dividend policies and the main factor that determines the amount of cash dividends is the earnings of the corporation in that year.     

Cross-Border Mergers & Acquisitions Policy in Service Markets

We provide facts showing that in service markets: (i) restrictions on foreign direct investment (FDI) are under reform, (ii) cross-border Mergers & Acquisitions dominate as the entry mode of FDI, and (iii) there is often a high market concentration. Based on these facts, we present a model for analyzing cross-border merger and acquisition policy in liberalized service markets taking into account efficiency and market power effects. Our findings suggest that a merger policy, but not a discriminatory policy towards foreigners, seems warranted. Moreover, policies ensuring competition for domestic target firms seem warranted. In this vein, harmonization of the EU takeover regulations may particularly benefit assets owners in countries with many target firms.     

从金融“再平衡”看中国经济的可持续复苏

随着全球经济的复苏和国际贸易的回升，全球的不平衡格局正在发生着积极变化。就中国而言，通过强力刺激政策实现率先复苏之后，一方面，以积极财政政策和宽松货币政策为代表的“再杠杆”政策正在进行灵敏主动的动态微调，从而避免经济出现“二次探底”，同时也预警性地调控可能的通货膨胀预期和资产泡沫风险；另一方面，为了增加经济持续复苏的内在动力，实现平衡的、可持续的复苏，中国也在根据全球化的新趋势积极调整对外经济金融政策，以促进国际收支失衡的调节。从国际范困观察，全球“再平衡”进程也在前进之中，世界总需求中的消费正在从发达国家转向新兴市场，同时国际资本也开始从复苏较慢的西方发达市场流向复苏较快的东亚新兴市场。     

Ein Arbeitsmarktprogramm für Europa

The European Employment Strategy is the subject of controversial discussion. It is hard to find an economic justification for transnational responsibility since European labour markets are heterogenous and spillover effects of national employment policies are almost negligible. In its latest communication, the European Commission fails to provide a masterplan for a recovery of the struggling labour markets, although it provides convincing and less convincing proposals for tackling unemployment in EU member states. There is a suspicion that the package mainly serves as a first step towards transferring employment policy responsibilities from the national to the EU level. But the EU labour market policy lacks appropriate instruments and competences. Finally, it is questionable whether the package fits in an economic growth plan.     

两岸三地利率联系及其对货币统一的含义

文章运用多变量协整检验方法对两岸三地的利率联系进行了检验。文章对政策性利率和货币市场利率做了区分,用前者分析两岸三地货币政策的趋同程度,用后者分析两岸三地金融市场之间的联系。同时,本文也考虑了美国与日本的货币政策和金融市场对两岸三地可能存在的影响。实证分析结果是:总体上,两岸三地的政策性利率和货币市场利率均存在长期均衡关系;政策性利率相对于区外保持一定的独立性,从长期趋势看,香港与大陆的利率联系比与美国的联系更为紧密,但是台湾地区还没有表现出这样的趋势;货币市场利率对区外经济体仍有较大的依赖性,区内联系相对较弱,尤其大陆与台湾地区之间。     

Identifying bubbles in Latin American equity markets: Phillips-Perron-based tests and linkages

The identification of periods of price exuberance in equity markets is of great interest to policy makers and financial investors. In this paper, we identify financial bubble periods within the major equity markets in Latin America. We use the recently developed recursive Augmented Dickey-Fuller methods and propose similar recursive procedures based on Phillips-Perron. We find that conditional on bubbles in the S&P 500, there are strong links between bubble episodes across equity markets in Latin America. In addition, the financial bubble periods in Latin America begin earlier and last longer than bubble periods in the United States during the 2008 financial crisis. Price bubbles were identified prior to the establishment of the Integrated Latin American Market (MILA).     

Globalisation and Policy Effects in Africa

Globalisation or market integration in Sub‐Saharan Africa is closely linked to the structural adjustment programmes. In this paper we focus on their dependence on the politics and institutional characteristics of the countries concerned. In particular, we argue that one important explanation for the dismal performance of many African countries, in spite of all the measures taken towards market liberalisation, is the combination of, first, a magnification of the effects of policy and, second, a lack of willingness or ability on the part of politicians to respect the restrictions imposed on their behaviour and policy choices by the liberalised markets. We look at how the increased exposure to international prices and returns on assets make the economic equilibrium relations – the law of one price and uncovered interest parity – relevant guidelines for economic policy. The argument is illustrated by the case of Zimbabwe, where lack of respect for the restrictions imposed by international markets has led to an economic crisis with negative growth rates and a departure from globalisation.     

On the European Responsibility in the Agricultural Multilateral Trade Negotiations: Modelling the Impacts of the Common Agricultural Policy

The present round of multilateral trade negotiations is still deadlocked over agricultural trade. The European Union (EU) is urged by its trading partners to open its agricultural markets. Economic evaluations of trade liberalisation scenarios unanimously conclude that a substantial opening of agricultural markets is required for a successful (welfare‐improving) Doha Round. In this paper, we perform new evaluations to identify precisely the contributions of the European farm policy and to examine the robustness of these evaluations in the representation of this complex policy. Using the same specifications as in major previous studies, our first simulations show that the EU has a major responsibility in delivering significant gains to the developing countries. On the other hand, when we conduct the same experiments with a more relevant calibration and modelling of the European farm policy instruments, the gains that these developing countries may reap from the EU liberalisation are considerably reduced. Accordingly the current charge against the EU is simply inopportune.     

我国货币政策信贷传导渠道:理论模型及实证分析

在一般均衡模型中,货币政策信贷传导机制主要通过利差的均衡调整过程来实现。基于VAR模型的脉冲响应分析结果表明,1998-2007年期间信贷渠道在我国货币政策传导机制中占有重要地位,货币政策效果不佳与信贷渠道梗阻密切相关。短期货币政策操作应充分关注信贷市场动态状况。坚持堵疏结合的原则切实缓解流动性过剩,提高紧缩性货币政策的效力。     

Liquidity and macroeconomic management in emerging markets

Emerging markets have received considerable attention for foreign investment and international diversification due to the possibility of higher earnings and a low level of integration with global equity markets. These high returns often need to be balanced by the high liquidity costs of trading in illiquid emerging markets. Several studies have shown that central bank and government policies are significant determinants of market liquidity. We investigate the influence of monetary and fiscal policy variables on the market and firm level liquidity of eight emerging stock markets of Asia. Using four different (il)liquidity measures and nine macroeconomic variables, we find that changes in the money supply, government expenditure and private borrowing significantly affect stock market liquidity. Illiquidity is also strongly affected by the bank rate, short-term interest rate and government borrowing. We demonstrate that ‘crowding out’ and ‘cost of funds’ effects exist in these markets. Other major findings are that some markets are more sensitive to local macroeconomic news than world factors, the impact on size based portfolios largely depends on the instruments used by the central banks and government, the liquidity of the manufacturing sector is affected by changes in any policy variables, financial institutions are only influenced by monetary policy variables, and the service sector is least affected.     

The Monetary Policy Model

Most monetary economists today conduct their analysis within some version of a rational expectations model. A well-defined equilibrium in such a model requires that the private sector understand policy goals and the policymakers' model of the economy. An austere version of the model, with no information asymmetries, is valid only to a first approximation but nevertheless provides core insights to short- and long-run monetary policy. In this model, effective policy requires clarity of policy goals and clarity of the policy model as to how the economy works. The central bank must enjoy sustained credibility in the markets. Communication should focus on policy fundamentals and the monetary authorities’ understanding of the economy, both of which are enhanced by continued research by monetary policy experts. JEL Classification E5     

Wettbewerbspolitik in der digitalen Wirtschaft

Digital content and services providers like Alphabet (formerly Google) or Facebook have become an indispensable part of our everyday lives and are among the highest valued firms in the economy as a whole. Most digital markets are characterized by direct and indirect network effects and therefore also by so-called two-sided platforms. To date it is not clear to how much market power these firms actually possess, which is a prerequisite for a possible policy intervention. The authors discuss measuring market power within the existing European legal framework and propose new legal rules in the field of digital markets. As the limitations of current instruments such as the SSNIP test point out, new approaches for the analysis of markets in the context of Internet-based platforms are necessary. The authors prefer modifying competition law to sector-specific regulations of internet-based businesses. They also discuss the implications that the use of big data has on competition policy. The author Günter Knieps focusses on the network evolution of the future all-IP Internet, which should neither be disturbed by regulatory technology policy nor by network neutrality regulation.     

创新 商品批发市场的生存之道

改革开放以来 ,我国的商品批发市场经历了很大的发展 ,但同时也还存在着许多的问题。特别是目前的环境下 ,商品批发市场还面临着多方面的挑战 ,如WTO、网络技术等。商品批发市场要得到很好的发展 ,出路只有一条 :创新。     

China’s Growing Influence in Southeast Asia – Monetary Policy and Equity Markets

This study analyses the potential transmission of China’s monetary policy shocks to equity markets in Southeast Asia. Impulse response functions indicate that the impact of a monetary expansion in China is significant and positive for four of the five Southeast Asian equity markets. One explanation for this result is that monetary policy shocks in China lead to an increase in demand for goods and services in both China and abroad, which then shows up in the foreign equity market. The results in this paper provide evidence of China’s influence in Southeast Asia and its financial markets. The transmission effect is small and very short lived, but can be expected to increase if the current trends of a deepening economic integration between China and Southeast Asia and a maturing Chinese central bank continue.