A Conversation with James O. Ramsay

Jim Ramsay was born on September 5, 1942, in Prince George, British Columbia. He pursued undergraduate studies at the University of Alberta, where he completed a BEd in 1964 with a major in English and a minor in mathematics. He then specialized in statistics and psychometry, earning a PhD in psychology from Princeton University in 1966. After holding a temporary lectureship in the Department of Psychology at University College London for one year, he joined the Department of Psychology at McGill University, where he rose through the academic ranks. He was chair of his department from 1986 to 1989 and spent sabbatical leaves in Cambridge, Grenoble, and Toulouse. He was named professor emeritus upon his retirement in 2007. Jim is the author of four influential books and over 100 peer‐reviewed articles in statistical and psychometric journals. He developed much of the statistical theory behind multidimensional scaling and is widely recognized as the founder of functional data analysis. Three of his papers were read to the Royal Statistical Society, and another won The Canadian Journal of Statistics 2000 Best Paper Award. The Statistical Society of Canada (SSC) awarded him a Gold Medal for research in 1998 and an honorary membership in 2012. Jim was president of the Psychometric Society in 1981–82 and president of the SSC in 2002–03. The following conversation took place at Jim's home in Ottawa, Ontario, on March 14 and April 4, 2012.     

Tracing VARDI coefficients: a proposal

ABSTRACT

We propose a new approach for tracing the so-called ‘value-added-(re)distribution-important coefficients’ (in short the VARDI coefficients) in a world input–output model. From the perspective of a selected group of economies, VARDI coefficients may be defined as those elements in world input–output matrix in the case of which a small change in their levels leads to the maximization of a share of this group of economies in value added in global value chains. Due to the rapid development of the World Input Output Database, this approach may be easily applied in empirical research to different groups of countries and sectors in world IO models. In an illustrative empirical case study, we use the new approach in order to answer a question regarding what the main directions of the future macroeconomic policy of the U.S. could be in order to ensure the maximization of the country’s share in global value added.     

A history of research in service operations: What's the big idea?

The purpose of this paper is to trace the history of research in service operations. After discussing the role of services in national economies and the importance of research in service operations, we discuss major trends in service operations research. For simplicity of exposition, this discussion is organized in terms of big ideas that have proved to be influential in setting the research agenda in service operations. In the final section, we identify high-potential research areas where research needs are particularly urgent in the near future.     

Measuring a boom and bust: The Sydney housing market 2001–2006

The Sydney housing market peaked in 2003. The period 2001–2006 is, therefore, of particular interest since it captures a boom and bust in the housing market. We compute hedonic, repeat-sales and median price indexes for five regions in Sydney over this period. While the three approaches are in broad agreement regarding the timing of the turning point in the housing market, some important differences also emerge. In particular, we find evidence of sample selection bias in our hedonic and repeat-sales data sets (with the former focusing more on better quality dwellings and the latter more on lower quality dwellings). These sample selection biases could in turn cause bias (in opposite directions) in our hedonic and repeat-sales indexes. Median indexes may likewise be biased as a result of an apparent decline in the average quality of dwellings sold in the latter part of the sample. We also find evidence of convergence in prices across regions during the boom and divergence in the subsequent bust.     

WORLD OUTLOOK

The world economic recovery, which began in the late summer of 1980, can now be seen as premature, in as much as 1980's short, sharp recession had achieved only a limited reduction in the rate of inflation. Economic policy, particularly in the United States, is once more geared to a reduction in the inflation rate even if this imposes costs in terms of lost output and higher unemployment. The consequent appreciation of the US dollar against the European currencies has - in spite of weakening oil and non-oil commodity prices in dollar terms - produced a further boost to European inflation and a subsequent tightening of policy in some countries, notably West Germany. In these circumstances we expect little or no growth in output in the world economy until the summer of 1982.     

高校图书馆文化建设与创新的研究

高校图书馆文化建设与创新在高校图书馆建设中具有非常重要的意义。一般认为,高校图书馆文化建设涉及文化、图书馆文化、高校图书馆文化以及高校图书馆文化的建设与创新等问题。     

Longitudinal analysis of self-employment follow-through

The Hungarian economy was based on central planning for several decades and in comparison with the dominance of the great organizations that consisted of many smaller units, the role of small-sized enterprises was marginal. The change in the political climate involved recognition of and belief in entrepreneurship and the new legal system increased the opportunity for setting up new enterprises established on private and joint capital. Nevertheless, the changes in the organizational system of companies within the national economy appear to concentrate in time and territory in Northern Hungary. Increasing unemployment inspires the start of numerous enterprises even when the experience of entrepreneurship is missing and, in addition, the inclination towards it. This may result in difficulties and danger and a study of North Hungarian small businesses is therefore useful.

The aim of this research is to examine the position of SMEs in the North Hungarian industrial area, concentrating on questions that can not be answered by means of traditional statistics. Data were collected by surveying questionnaires. The questions referred to the development of SMEs in North Hungary.

Finally, the elements in the economic environment that may hinder or help successful operation of the enterprises were analysed. With the experience gained by our investigation we would like to help in the reinforcement of SMEs working in Northern Hungary.     

高校英语教育与区域经济发展的相互作用

英语作为一门国际化语言在21世纪的经济全球化大环境下扮演着桥梁与纽带的角色。无论是国际会议的召开,还是经济贸易的往来,在口语与书面用语中作为信息交流与传递的工具,都离不开英语这门语言。因此,大力发展英语教育对促进经济发展有重要作用。同时,经济的发展也能带动英语教育的发展。目前我国从事英语教育的培训机构数不胜数,已经从幼儿园到高等教育都在推广英语作为第二门应用语言,说明我们充分认识到英语在人才培养中的重要性以及未来英语人才在经济发展中的重要作用。     

The Impact of Employee Share Ownership Plans On Employee Participation and Industrial Democracy

This article examines employee participation in recently-formed employee share ownership plan organisations (ESOPS) in the UK. the various legal/institutional forms of ESOP are outlined prior to considering the nature and determinants of participative institutions and processes. It is suggested that there are three ‘constellations’ of ESOP in terms of employee participation:‘technical ESOPS’, ‘paternalist ESOPs’ and ‘representative ESOPs’. There are relatively few innovations in participation in the first of these, while in paternalist ESOPs, innovations centre on individualistic forms of participation and communication at the level of the workplace. In representative ESOPs employees gain more of a say in strategic decisions through such innovations as employee representation on company boards. It is argued that these differences in the nature of participation are due neither to differences in legal structure nor to variations in the extent of employee share ownership. Instead, participative systems are viewed as the outcome of the philosophies and objectives of those involved in the conversion to employee ownership.     

Labor force migration, non-labor force migration, and non-employment reasons for migration

This paper documents the extent and nature of non-employment factors in migration. The labor force status of over 18 million recent interstate migrants in the United States and stated reasons for moving reported in several surveys in the U.S. are examined. Labor force migrants are heterogeneous in terms of the relationships between acquisition of employment and the migration decision, and in terms of the influence of decision makers outside of the migrant household including firms and the government. Numerically important categories of migrants not traditionally captured in migration models exist, including the elderly, the military, and movers from abroad. Whereas non-employment reasons are secondary to employment reasons for a majority of labor force migrants, non-employment factors are singularly important or operate in combination with employment factors for the majority of all migrants. The heterogeneity of migrant types and migration reasons needs to be better captured in migration models.     

Fritz Redlich, 1892-1978: The Man and the Scholar

A bstract . Fritz Redlich (1892-1978) played a leading role in the development of the analytic approach in history and in establishing the new institutional history that combines entrepreneurial and business history and sociology. A member, in economics , of the German historical school , he spent 16 years in the chemical industry before the triumph of Nazism forced him to emigrate from Germany in 1936. After teaching at various colleges until 1942, he spent the rest of his life doing research in the libraries of Harvard University , producing several notable works in economic history , including a classical study of American banking , and pioneering in entrepreneurial history.     

浅析我国在施工阶段BIM应用中的存在问题及对策

BIM的出现为建设行业的信息化带来了新的发展,其在施工阶段的应用在减少成本、缩短工期、保证质量等方面都发挥着不可小觑的作用,可大大提高建设工程项目的价值。我国建设行业虽然逐渐认识到了BIM的价值,也致力于发展BIM,但是由于发展初期的各种原因,BIM在建设施工阶段的应用存在各种问题,这些问题使得BIM在施工阶段的应用价值不能得到很好的体现,严重阻碍了BIM在施工阶段的应用发展。本文基于我国在建设施工阶段的BIM应用情况,分析了建设施工阶段BIM应用中存在的一些问题,并提出了一些解决的方向。     

Land Value Taxation and Housing Development

A bstract . The effects of land value taxation on housing development are studied in three disparate cities: Pittsburgh, McKeesport, and New Castle, Pennsylvania. These places are examples of three different types of city: central city, suburban city , and relatively isolated city , respectively. Shifting taxes from buildings to land is hypothesized to have different effects in the different types of cities. A liquidity effect , due to increases in the land tax rate , is expected to operate in all three types of cities. An incentive effect , due to decreases in the tax rate on improvements , is expected to function in central cities and, possibly, in relatively isolated cities. It is not expected to be important in suburban cities such as McKeesport. An incentive effect was found in Pittsburgh, but not in the other two cities. No evidence of a liquidity effect was found in any of the three cities. An explanation of why observed effects may not conform with hypotheses is given.     

Foreign firms in China: modelling HRM in a toy manufacturing corporation

This article reports the study of a large, wholly foreign‐owned toy factory in China. It explores whether foreign direct investment (FDI) manufacturing firms in China inevitably operate in a Taylorist fashion, in contrast to the much praised HR model of blue chip multinational corporations (MNCs) in the country, or whether there is a ‘third way’ in which good HR practices may be adopted on the ground. The article concludes that a more nuanced approach is needed in our study of FDI companies in order to gain a fuller understanding of the institutional and cultural factors at play and of the consequent diversity in the HR and employment practices of FDI firms, instead of being trapped in a simplistic and polarising typological framework of analysis. This study is necessary in light of the growing diversity in the patterns of FDI companies operating in China in terms of their ownership structure, product market, management style and HR strategy, both for managers and for workers.     

基于投入要素影响的中国物流地区差距研究

文章基于集中度指数和面板数据模型,采用2002~2010年间中国31个省份的面板数据,分析了中国物流的地区差距及投入要素对地区差距的影响。结果表明:我国物流发展水平存在显著的地区差距,东部地区明显强于中西部地区;在投入要素中,信息化水平对物流发展水平的影响较大,物流基础设施的影响较小,而物流从业人员的影响未见;我国的物流发展正处于结构调整期,信息化水平差距对物流发展水平差距的贡献最大。     

Home market effects with endogenous costs of production

In a standard imperfect competition model, we endogenize the costs of production of firms in the increasing returns sector (IRS) via process R&D. We show that firms in the larger region in terms of demand invest more in R&D (i.e.: they are bigger in size and have lower marginal costs) than firms in the smaller region, since the former exploit larger economies of scale in production to pay for the costs of R&D. As a result, when the return on R&D is high, the larger region does not employ disproportionately more labor nor attracts a disproportionately larger share of firms in the IRS in relation to share of demand it hosts, i.e.: negative home market effects (HMEs) in employment and in the number of firms. When this occurs, only partial agglomeration of the IRS in the larger region is sustainable in equilibrium. Even so, the larger region always runs trade surplus in the IRS, i.e.: HME in trade patterns.     

Using extreme value theory to measure value-at-risk for daily electricity spot prices

The recent deregulation in electricity markets worldwide has heightened the importance of risk management in energy markets. Assessing Value-at-Risk (VaR) in electricity markets is arguably more difficult than in traditional financial markets because the distinctive features of the former result in a highly unusual distribution of returns—electricity returns are highly volatile, display seasonalities in both their mean and volatility, exhibit leverage effects and clustering in volatility, and feature extreme levels of skewness and kurtosis. With electricity applications in mind, this paper proposes a model that accommodates autoregression and weekly seasonals in both the conditional mean and conditional volatility of returns, as well as leverage effects via an EGARCH specification. In addition, extreme value theory (EVT) is adopted to explicitly model the tails of the return distribution. Compared to a number of other parametric models and simple historical simulation based approaches, the proposed EVT-based model performs well in forecasting out-of-sample VaR. In addition, statistical tests show that the proposed model provides appropriate interval coverage in both unconditional and, more importantly, conditional contexts. Overall, the results are encouraging in suggesting that the proposed EVT-based model is a useful technique in forecasting VaR in electricity markets.     

An Investigation of Justice in supply chain relationships and their performance impact

Justice is important in improving performance of supply chain relationships. However, the role of justice in improving performance in supply chain relationships is an under-investigated subject in the literature. In studying the joint impact of justice dimensions, the traditional assumption is that the three forms of justice interact with each other in a multiplicative manner. However, this assumption creates a managerial problem as discussed in this paper. We outline a different view of how the justice dimensions interact with one another utilizing the constraining factor model (CFM). We show that the CFM resolves some of the problems arising from the choice of multiplicative interaction of justice measures on performance. Specifically, we demonstrate that an increase in procedural, distributive or interactional justice results in a significant and positive improvement in performance only if the specific justice dimension is the constraining factor in the relationship. Overall, our analysis suggests that all three dimensions are important and a high level of one of the justice elements will not compensate for a low level of another, a view that is put forward by a number of past research studies in justice. We discuss the theoretical and managerial implications of our findings.     

Predictors of the adoption of work–care arrangements: a study of South African firms

This study examines predictors of work–care arrangements in South African organisations. It investigates the adoption of 23 work–care arrangements in organisations listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. Organisational size, female presence in the organisation and in trade unions, female leadership and trade union density are tested as predictors of the adoption of these arrangements. In addition, foreign ownership, a previously untested variable predicting the adoption of work–care arrangements, is included in this study. The findings show that the level of adoption of work–care arrangements in South African organisations is low. Organisational size and female presence in senior managerial positions are found to be associated with the greater adoption of work–care arrangements. The study adds to existing work–family research by examining work–care integration in a non-Western context. Furthermore, the study is innovative in the addition of foreign ownership as an independent variable and the inclusion of a broader range of work–care arrangements in the study. The study is relevant for other developing nations and extends the existing research on employer involvement in work and care in developed nations.     

Technical efficiency and region The U.S. manufacturing sector 1972–1977

In this paper we estimate the extent of technological bias in an interregional context for U.S. manufacturing during the period 1972–1977 using a factor augmenting production function approach. We present estimates of the elasticity of factor substitution for each of the 48 states in the sample using a variable elasticity of substitution production function. Next, we use these estimates to generate estimates of the rates of change in the efficiencies of capital and labor inputs and compare these estimates across states and census regions. We also examine and compare estimates of total factor productivity across states and regions. We ,find that the average annual rates of growth of capital efficiency during the period are 5.5 percent in the Northeast, 5.3 percent in the Northcentral, 5.6 percent in the West and 3.1 percent in the South. The rates of change of the efficiencies of labor are found to be negative across all regions except the South. The rates of change of total factor productivity are found to be 1.7 percent in the Northeast, 2.3 percent in the Northcentral, 2.4 percent in the West and 1.7 percent in the South. We also find that between 33 percent and 56 percent of the growth of output across regions is due to technical progress.