On the effects of emission standards as a non-tariff barrier to trade in the case of a foreign Bertrand duopoly: A note

Employing a model of an environmentally differentiated product market, we analyze how an emission regulation as non-tariff barriers to trade affects imports, the environment, and welfare in the case of a foreign Bertrand duopoly. Related to this issue, we reconsider the result of Moraga-González and Padrón-Fumero [Moraga-González, J.L., Padrón-Fumero, N., 2002. Environmental policy in a green market. Environmental and Resource Economics 22, 419–447] that a strict emission standard on a dirtier product degrades the environment and reduces the net social surplus associated with the valuation of environmental damage, if the marginal social valuation of environmental damage is larger. On the other hand, we show that a strict emission standard on a cleaner product always improves the environment and the net social surplus associated with the valuation of environmental damage.     

Shareholder Value Maximisation,Stock Market and New Technology: Should the US Corporate Model be the Universal Standard? 1

In 1992 a blue‐ribbon group of US economists led by Michael Porter concluded that the US stock market‐based corporate model was misallocating resources and jeopardising US competitiveness. The faster growth of US economy since then and the supposed US lead in the spread of information technology has brought new legitimacy to the stock market and the corporate model, which is being hailed as the universal standard. Two main conclusions of the analysis presented here are: (a) there is no warrant for revising the blue‐ribbon group’s conclusion; and (b) even US corporations let alone developing country ones would be better off not having stock market valuation as a corporate goal.     

Mixed copula model with stochastic correlation for CDO pricing

This paper deals with the problem of pricing credit derivatives portfolio—CDO. The article assumes that the systematic factor and idiosyncratic factors subject to the fat-tailed mixed G-VG distribution instead of the traditional Gaussian distribution in the framework of factor model. Thus, the G-VG copula model is established. Stochastic correlation is also incorporated to account for the correlation skew problem. The semi-analytical expressions for conditional default probability, cumulative loss distribution function and expected tranche loss are explicitly derived in the G-VG copula models under large homogeneous portfolio approximation. Thus the CDO price can be determined. The numerical analysis is carried out and the properties of the new models with those of the traditional models are compared. Results show that new models not only provide a closer fit to the market quotes, but also bring more flexibility into the dependence structure.     

Asset pricing theory and the valuation of Canadian paintings

Abstract.  The valuation of Canadian paintings is analysed empirically. Using a sample of auction prices for major Canadian painters for the period 1968–2001, we run hedonic regressions to analyse the influence of various factors, including painter identity, on auction prices, as well as to construct a market price index. This index is used in a second‐stage analysis in which we analyse the properties of Canadian art viewed as an investment asset. We apply standard asset pricing theory, as incorporated in the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), to the analysis of price movements in the market for Canadian paintings.     

Automobile quality choice under pollution control regulation

In this paper, we develop a modified quality choice model to study the effects of various mobile-source air pollution control regulations. We have a single producer that supplies a fixed number of car types (two) but faces a spectrum of consumers differing in their valuation of car quality. The car manufacturer chooses the quality levels of the two car types as well as the sales mix between the two types and the size of the market it wishes to supply. By endogenizing both the sales mix and the market size, while still allowing quality to be a choice variable, we are able to more completely analyze the impact of any car pollution control regulation. Existing studies of this impact either focus on the model line adjustment response (shifts in the quality array) or on the price adjustment response (changes in the sales mix and market size). In allowing for both the model line and the price adjustment options, we find that the corporate average fuel efficiency (CAFE) standard is unambiguously welfare superior to the low-emission vehicle quantity constraint (LEV) and zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) programs. We also show that the effects of the CAFE standard are not equivalent to those of a fuel tax, as previously found, and that, for a given car pollution target, the former is preferred to the latter.      

Housing prices and crime perception

In this article, we combine data from the housing market with data from a victimization survey to estimate the effect of crime perception on housing prices in the City of Barcelona from 2004 to 2006. Using dwelling data and a hedonic price model (using both OLS and quantile regressions), in the first stage, we estimate the shadow price of the location of dwellings. In the second stage, we analyse the impact of crime perception, after controlling for other district characteristics such as local public spending and immigration, on this locational valuation. After accounting for the possible endogeneity of crime and housing prices, our findings suggest that crime exerts relevant costs beyond its direct costs. Indeed, a one standard deviation increase in perceived security is associated with a 0.57 % increase in the valuation of districts. Moreover, in districts perceived as being less safe than the average for the City of Barcelona, houses are highly discounted. Less safe districts have on average a valuation that is 1.27 % lower.     

分析师的估值模型会影响评级的信息含量吗?

本文基于2014—2018年发布的沪深两市A股上市公司深度研究报告,考察了分析师报告中关于估值方法的描述,探究分析师估值模型的选择是否会对其投资意见的信息含量产生影响。研究发现,分析师采用绝对估值模型能够提高评级调整的市场反应,具有一定的增量价值。进一步分组检验发现,在公司成长性较高、不确定性较大、券商实力较弱、分析师之间的竞争程度较高的情况下,使用绝对估值模型对于提高分析师评级调整的信息含量作用更大。本文的研究结论对于理解分析师估值过程的价值和有效性以及分析师研究报告信息含量的影响因素具有重要意义,并为投资者如何使用和评价分析师研究报告提供了一定的参考。     

R&D投入与公司价值相关性的实证分析——以我国生物制药和电子信息技术行业上市公司为例

以2007—2009年我国生物制药和电子信息技术行业上市公司为研究样本,实证考察R&D投入与公司价值的相关性。首先检验R&D投入对公司经营业绩的作用,然后运用改进的Fama-French三因子模型,检验R&D投入的市场估值效应。结果显示,R&D投入与公司本年主营业务利润正相关,与同期股价和未来一年的股价变动正相关,但不显著。说明生物制药和电子信息技术企业研发投入的价值,在新会计准则实施和股权分置改革完成后,仍未得到市场的有效认可。     

Equity market valuation,systematic risk and monetary policy

This study examines the relationship between equity market valuation and risk indicators that portend economic downswings. The indicators are implied options volatility, Treasury-Eurodollar (TED) spread and exchange rate. While implied volatility captures market risk in that it reflects the fear factor embedded in the price of an option, TED spread reflects the default risk premium that is priced into a key short-term credit instrument. Equity markets often show a tendency to reflect the incidence of these risk factors. And because they provide valuable information about the health of the economy, many have argued that equity market valuation be taken into account in the formulation of monetary policy. Results of this study not only show a statistically significant inverse relationship between the stock market and these risk factors, but also evidence of a cointegration. In a variance decomposition of the series, we find that equity valuation is a major contributor to the forecast error variances of each of the risk indicators, a finding that lends tacit support to the argument that risk indicators associated with the equity market be considered in monetary policy decisions.     

我国商业银行客户关系管理战略结构模型实证研究

随着我国银行业市场竞争的加剧,客户关系管理已日益成为商业银行提升自身市场竞争能力的有效工具。商业银行客户关系管理战略结构模型的构建是商业银行进一步提高客户关系管理效率的基础,而理论模型的构建过程必须以密切联系于我国商业银行的客户关系实践经验。因子分析可以为理论模型提供较好的信度和效度检验,从而提高了理论模型的应用价摘。     

Interview Effects in an Environmental Valuation Telephone Survey

Because of the lack of markets for many environmental services, economists have turned to valuation surveys to estimate the value of these services. However, lack of market experience may cause respondents in valuation surveys to be more prone to interview effects than they would be with other opinion surveys. Without reference to market price or experience, respondents are less likely to have well-defined preferences, which may cause respondents to be more easily influenced by the interview process and characteristics of the interviewer. In this paper, we investigate interview effects in a random digit dial telephone survey of recycling valuation and behavior. Following previous research in both psychology and survey methodology, we test the direct effects of interviewer gender and race, as well as the interaction effects between interviewer and respondent characteristics. Using data from 130 interviewers and 1,786 interviewees, we apply a hierarchical regression model that accounts for the clustering of interviews and controls for a variety of other confounding variables. We confirm the existence of both direct and conditional interviewer effects. Respondents state higher willingness to pay when interviewed by white or female interviewers than by non-white or male interviewers. There were also significant interaction effects between interviewer and respondent characteristics. The directions of the interviewer effects are consistent with previous survey research and social psychology theories. We also identify some non-traditional interview process factors that have an influence on survey responses.     

MNEs and market valuation of firms: a cross-sectional study of Indian electrical and electronic goods manufacturing firms

This paper argues that inter-firm differences in the direction of change in market valuation will depend mainly on the ‘salience’ and unique risk characteristics of the firms. These characteristics are largely influenced by mulinational enterprise (MNE) affiliation. The sample for the study consists of electrical and electronic manufacturing firms in India for 1994–1996. Maximum Likelihood Estimates of the Probit model show that even during a downswing in the stock market MNE affiliates were able to hold their own and increase their market valuation. These results hold good for a wide variety of products produced in this sector where both MNEs and local firms compete. The results have implications for theories relating to MNEs, stock market valuation and also for policy makers.     

An econometric analysis of willingness-to-pay for sustainable development: A case study of the Vol?ji Potok landscape area

When the market for a certain good is competitive enough, economic activities can be studied by the market pricing mechanism. Because this is usually not feasible in case of environmental goods with embodied natural and cultural heritage, particular methods for economic valuation of such goods have to be applied. The present article represents the economic valuation of the Landscape Development and Protection Area of Vol?ji Potok, which is an important Slovenian cultural landscape area with internationally recognized qualities. For this purpose we combined classical contingent valuation with a closed-version of discrete choice method, where the protest responses have been removed. By using econometric analysis we obtained the value of willingness-to-pay and established its determinants. We also made an attempt to control for different biases that arise in such analyses. At last, we used the adjusted average individual value of willingness-to-pay to calculate the aggregate willingness-to-pay. The present analysis represents one of the very few applications of the method to Central and Eastern European countries.     

Mortgage‐Backed Securities (MBS): Is It a Curse or a Blessing for the Australian Home Loan Market? A Natural Experiment

The Australian home loan market has seen a significant and persistent boom over more than two decades. The extant literature exploring the underlying factors explaining this boom has predominantly looked at the demand side rather than the supply side. In this paper, we look at a major supply‐side issue, the introduction of mortgage‐backed securities and its likely impact on the home loan market. In doing so, we have developed a mathematical model that theorises this likely relationship. Our mathematical model predicts possible existence of an unstable equilibrium in the home loan market in the presence of mortgage‐backed securities. We have subsequently backed up our theoretical exercise with sound empirical evidence acquired and analysed as a natural experiment in the Australian scenario using quarterly market data on home loans and mortgage‐backed securities data for a 36‐year period from 1976 to 2012. Using unknown structural break tests, we have identified significant breaks around late 1992 to mid‐1995, clearly indicating that there were significant changes in the housing market due to the introduction of mortgage‐backed securities in early 1993. We have also performed a stability test confirming that under certain conditions this market can become unstable.     

Valuing GM technologies using real options: the case of drought tolerant wheat in Australia

ABSTRACT

In this article we seek to estimate the value of a partially-developed crop technology from the perspective of the firm developing the technology. Firms need this value estimation to decide whether their technology will earn a sufficient return in the market to justify investing in it. However, determining the (ex-ante) value of the technology before it is commercialised is challenging as the technology is not yet in the market and hence the demand function has not yet been defined. An alternative valuation method is required. We use risk premiums, Monte Carlo simulation and real options analysis and we demonstrate this combination of valuation tools on wheat that is currently being developed in Australia to be drought tolerant. The results indicate that this drought tolerant wheat variety is likely to be adopted by farmers in most regions and has a pre-commercialisation value that justifies continued investment in its development. We also identified South Australia as a region in which the new variety would not be sufficiently valuable to farmers to see them adopt it and we consider possible explanations for this outcome.     

Imperfect Asset Substitutability and Current Account Dynamics

In this paper, we present a model of the current account. The model has two variants, one in which assets are perfectly substitutable in investors' portfolios, and another in which they are not. We examine the responses of these two variants of the model to standard shocks, and show that under imperfect substitutability, a valuation effect comes into play. We focus on the external accounts, and examine the role and strength of these valuation effects. Additionally, the imperfect substitutability case allows us to examine the model's response to an exogenous change in investors's portfolio preferences. The model in this paper provides a framework for understanding the experience of the dollar's real value and of the US current account over the last decade.     

Monetary policy and efficiency in over‐the‐counter financial trade

We develop a monetary model that incorporates over‐the‐counter (OTC) asset trade. After agents have made their money holding decisions, they receive an idiosyncratic shock that affects their valuation for consumption and, hence, for the unique liquid asset, namely money. Subsequently, agents can choose whether they want to enter the OTC market in order to sell assets and thus boost their liquidity or to buy assets and thus provide liquidity to other agents. In our model, inflation affects not only the money holding decisions of agents, as is standard in monetary theory, but also the entry decision of these agents in the financial market. We use our framework to study the effect of inflation on welfare, asset prices and OTC trade volume. In contrast to most monetary models, which predict a negative relationship between inflation and welfare, we find that inflation can be welfare improving within a certain range, because it mitigates a search externality that agents impose on one another when they make their OTC market entry decision. Also, an increase in the holding cost of money will lead to a decrease in asset prices, a regularity that is well documented in the data and often considered anomalous.     

基于ACSI模型的顾客满意测评应用研究——以超市行业为例

随着零售市场的开放,许多国外大型超市的进入,国内超市行业将面临着越来越激烈的竞争。研究表明,顾客满意对企业的经营绩效有很大的影响,而顾客满意测评是衡量顾客满意度的有效手段。本文以顾客满意相关理论为基础,基于美国顾客满意指数模型,以超市行业为例,详细论述了顾客满意测评的理论方法,并把ACSI模型应用到超市行业的顾客满意测评中,指出了顾客满意测评在超市应用的重要性。     

Physical energy cost serves as the “invisible hand” governing economic valuation: Direct evidence from biogeochemical data and the U.S. metal market

Energy supply is mandatory for the production of economic value. Nevertheless, tradition dictates that an enigmatic “invisible hand” governs economic valuation. Physical scientists have long proposed alternative but testable energy cost theories of economic valuation, and have shown the gross correlation between energy consumption and economic output at the national level through input-output energy analysis. However, due to the difficulty of precise energy analysis and highly complicated real markets, no decisive evidence directly linking energy costs to the selling prices of individual commodities has yet been found. Over the past century, the US metal market has accumulated a huge body of price data, which for the first time ever provides us the opportunity to quantitatively examine the direct energy-value correlation. Here, by analyzing the market price data of 65 purified chemical elements (mainly metals) relative to the total energy consumption for refining them from naturally occurring geochemical conditions, we found a clear correlation between the energy cost and their market prices. The underlying physics we proposed has compatibility with conventional economic concepts such as the ratio between supply and demand or scarcity's role in economic valuation. It demonstrates how energy cost serves as the “invisible hand” governing economic valuation. Thorough understanding of this energy connection between the human economic and the Earth's biogeochemical metabolism is essential for improving the overall energy efficiency and furthermore the sustainability of the human society.