中印服务贸易增值的比较研究

服务贸易统计的复杂性高于商品贸易,全球范围内服务贸易的国家间贸易统计数据更是严重匮乏,发达国家的服务贸易统计数据较发展中国家略为丰富.全球化下的商品价值链研究揭示了商品生产过程的分散和地理集中化趋势,与此同时服务价值链研究日益受到关注,服务业产业链对生产网络的影响以及发展趋势亟待明确.根据OECD的增值数据库,通过分析中国和印度服务业增值出口的现状,发现中印两国在服务业增值出口中呈现出各自典型特征.     

中韩工业制成品的贸易竞争关系分析

作为当今全球最重要的双边经贸关系之一,中韩贸易发展迅速,两国已互为重要的贸易伙伴。利用贸易竞争力指数、产业内贸易指数、GHM指数对中韩工业制成品的贸易竞争关系进行实证分析,结果显示：中韩双边工业制成品以产业间贸易为主,产业内贸易为辅;劳动密集型制成品、技术和资本密集型制成品以产业间贸易和低质量垂直型产业内贸易为主。两国的制成品贸易互补性强,中国相对处于产业分工的低端。为提升中国制成品的贸易竞争力,应采取加强技术自主研发、完善双边贸易合作机制、加快产业结构调整等措施。     

Developing Countries' Changing Participation in World Trade

Recent years have seen substantial reductions in trade policyand other barriers inhibiting developing country participationin world trade. Lower barriers have contributed to a dramaticshift in the pattern of developing country trade—awayfrom dependence on commodity exports to much greater relianceon manufactures and services. In addition, exports to otherdeveloping countries have become much more important. Thesechanges have profound implications for the role played by developingcountries in the world economy and trade system.      

Trade integration and corporate income tax differentials

Building on recent contributions to the New Economic Geography literature, this paper analyses the relation between asymmetric market size, trade integration, and corporate income tax differentials across countries. First, relying on Ottaviano and Van Ypersele’s (J. Int. Econ. 67:25–46, 2005) foot-loose capital model of tax competition, we illustrate that trade integration reduces the importance of relative market size for differences in the extent of corporate taxation between countries. Then, using a dataset of 26 OECD countries over the period 1982–2004, we provide supportive evidence of these theoretical predictions, i.e., market size differences are strongly positively correlated with corporate income tax differences across countries, but crucially, trade integration weakens this link. These findings are obtained controlling for the potential endogeneity of trade integration and are robust to alternative specifications.     

中美贸易冲突的贸易后果 ——基于中美贸易细分产品数据的研究

基于双重差分模型,依据2014-2019年的中美贸易细分产品月度数据,考量中美贸易冲突对中美两国贸易的影响.结果显示:贸易冲突对中国从美国进口负向影响显著,且在样本期内具有平稳性与持续性;对中国对美出口负向效应显著,且在样本期内呈"倒U型"趋势.事件前期和中期,在"抢出口"效应作用下,贸易冲突对中国对美出口具有短期促进作用;事件后期,对中国对美出口的破坏影响显现.细分产品层面,贸易冲突对中国从美国资本品和消费品的进口负向影响显著,表明国家和个体层面都对贸易有所限制.出口方面,中国消费品出口所受的负向影响较强.同时,中美贸易冲突对于第三国贸易转移效应显著.     

Commodity Trade and the Carry Trade: A Tale of Two Countries

Persistent interest rate differentials account for much of the currency carry trade profitability. “Commodity currencies” offer high interest rates on average, while countries that export finished goods tend to have low interest rates. We develop a general equilibrium model of international trade and currency pricing where countries have an advantage in producing either basic inputs or final goods. In the model, domestic production insulates commodity‐producing countries from global productivity shocks, forcing final‐good producers to absorb them. Commodity‐currency exchange rates and risk premia increase with productivity differentials and trade frictions. These predictions are strongly supported in the data.     

中挪双边贸易结构和竞争互补性分析

分析中挪两国出口贸易结构变化,计算两国的贸易互补性指数、贸易竞争力和产业内贸易指数。结果表明:中挪两国贸易结构朝有利于发挥双方比较优势的方向转变;两国具有贸易竞争力的产品差异较大,产业间贸易互补性较强,产业内贸易水平较低,但上升趋势明显。总体而言,中挪两国贸易互补大于竞争,两国通过发挥各自的比较优势进行分工合作,贸易潜力巨大。中挪建立自由贸易区,有利于进一步巩固中挪上下游产业链合作形式以及加强中挪在高技术领域合作,加快中国产业结构升级,从而实现"双赢"。     

金融支持服务贸易的理论分析与对策研究

服务贸易作为经济发展的动力和引擎,对于转变我国经济发展和对外贸易增长方式具有重大战略意义,但由于缺乏足够的金融支持,我国服务贸易整体水平还处于比较落后的状态。本文将从产业结构调整理论和国家竞争优势理论的视角分析对服务贸易进行金融支持的必要性,并提出构建我国服务贸易多元化金融支持体系的对策建议。     

我国服务贸易发展面临的问题及路径选择

货物贸易与服务贸易一直存在着"长短腿"的尴尬,如何抓住新一轮国际产业转移的战略机遇.促进服务贸易快速发展,实现货物贸易和服务贸易的协调发展,是我国参与国际分工、提高国际竞争力的重要举措.本文基于和谐视角,提出应从调整产业结构、政府政策扶持、加快服务贸易人才培养、拓展服务外包寻求服务贸易突破口、实施服务贸易品牌策略、完善政策法规等方面发展服务贸易的相关制度安排.     

Corporate Social Responsibility Amid Social Distancing During the COVID-19 Crisis: BRICS vs. OECD Countries

This paper compares today’s corporate management in developing markets (BRICS countries) vs. developed markets (the OECD countries). The influence of determining a new social corporate management season considering social distancing amid the COVID-19 pandemic on emerging markets' economic growth is ascertained and set apart from corporate management in developing markets. This paper helps clarifying and better understanding the role of corporate social responsibility in the conditions of an economic crisis against the background of the COVID-19 pandemic. This work provides scientific arguments that allow solving critical discussions regarding the advantages (growth of quality of life, an increase of business's competitiveness) and costs (limitation of economic growth, non-commercial use of profit, and increased price for goods and services) of domestic production and consumption. In the long-term, responsible financial practices return all investments and allow countries to better cope with a crisis. The research supplies a new view of corporate social responsibility as a measure of crisis management. It reflects its advantages at a time of social distancing in the conditions of the COVID-19 pandemic. The institutionalization of corporate social responsibility in emerging countries is not predetermined by internal factors (approach to doing business or organizational culture), if not by external factors (market status, state regulation, and consumer awareness). These circumstances prove the high complexity of strengthening corporate social responsibility in developing countries. In the conditions of social distancing – due to the COVID-19 pandemic – corporate social responsibility goes to a new level. In both developing and developed countries, one of the most widespread manifestations of corporate social responsibility is the entrepreneurship's transition to the remote form of activities. This envisages the provision of remote employment for workers and the online purchase of goods and services for consumers.     

老龄化、消费结构与服务业发展

老龄化程度加深和产业结构变迁是经济发展过程中的普遍现象。本文研究了老龄化对服务业发展的影响,发现随着人均收入提高,一个经济体老年抚养比与服务业比重的关系由负相关转为正相关。本文在多部门一般均衡模型中引入人口年龄结构,提出由于不同年龄群体消费偏好的需求收入弹性和替代弹性存在差异,老龄化通过收入效应和价格效应两个渠道影响消费需求结构,进而影响服务业发展。当老龄化在收入效应渠道上的影响为负、在价格效应渠道上的影响为正时,模型可以解释跨国特征事实。本文结合跨国数据校准了模型参数,之后定量评估了不同环境下老龄化对服务业比重的影响,发现这一影响还取决于老龄化程度和产业间相对生产率。改变产业部门消费率和劳动力转移成本等因素后,定量结果仍保持了较高的稳健性。本文从人口年龄结构视角发展了产业结构转型研究,发现“未富先老”不利于服务业发展,并以此就我国应对老龄化和发展服务业进行了政策讨论。     

Trade credit,collateral liquidation,and borrowing constraints

Assuming that firms’ suppliers are better able to extract value from the liquidation of assets in default and have an information advantage over other creditors, the paper derives six predictions on the use of trade credit. (1) Financially unconstrained firms (with unused bank credit lines) take trade credit to exploit the supplier's liquidation advantage. (2) If inputs purchased on account are sufficiently liquid, the reliance on trade credit does not depend on credit rationing. (3) Firms buying goods make more purchases on account than those buying services, while suppliers of services offer more trade credit than those of standardized goods. (4) Suppliers lend inputs to their customers but not cash. (5) Greater reliance on trade credit is associated with more intensive use of tangible inputs. (6) Better creditor protection decreases both the use of trade credit and input tangibility.     

Do Trade Patterns and Technology Flows Affect Productivity Growth?

This article presents a model suggesting that the pattern ofa country's intermediate goods imports affects its level ofproductivity because a country that imports such goods primarilyfrom technological leaders receives more technology than a countrythat imports primarily from follower countries. The importanceof trade patterns in determining technology flows is quantifiedusing industry-level data for machinery goods imports and productivityfrom eight member countries of the Organisation for EconomicCo-operation and Development between 1970 and 1991. Three conclusionsemerge from this work. First, the eight countries studied appearto benefit more from domestic research and development (R&D)than from R&D of the average foreign country. Second, conditionalon technology diffusion from domestic R&D, a country's importcomposition matters only if it is strongly biased toward oraway from technological leaders. Third, differences in technologyinflows related to the pattern of imports explain about 20 percentof the total variation in productivity growth. The implicationsof these findings for developing countries are discussed.     

双边WTO协议对我国外贸制度的影响

与WTO成员举行双边谈判是“入世”的必要程序，谈判结果体现为中国的“承诺”，构成了中国“入世”的基本条件，并净引发我国外贸制度的改革，例如，对外贸主体范围的限制将逐步取消，外贸权与内贸权将逐步融合，数额管理和许可证管理的任意性将受到限制，服务领域将成为对外开放的主要领域等等。此外，政府外贸管理的力度将逐步减弱，外贸服务的职能将日益加强。总之，本文试图说明：加入WTO对我国贸易经济带来的挑战正在步步逼近。     

基于CMS模型视角的中韩工业制成品贸易增长分析

在中国加入WTO之后,中韩工业制成品双边贸易发展迅速。以UNComtrade数据为基础,利用CMS模型考察在1996～2001年、2002～2009年两个时期内推动中韩工业制成品贸易增长的因素。结果显示:从总体上看,导致中韩工业制成品双边贸易增长的因素是一致的,即进口国进口需求的增加、产品出口竞争力的提高以及进口需求结构与出口产品结构互补性的增强。但对于不同的工业制成品来说,推动中韩贸易增长的因素略有差异。     

Trade concentration, openness, and deviations from purchasing power parity

Economists have often explained deviations from PPP in terms of random relative price changes. While all countries are subject to such real shock, empirical studies indicate that PPP seems to hold closer for some countries than others. This paper emphasizes two major reasons why we should expect systematic differences across countries in deviations from PPP: (a) the concentration of trade and (b) openness. The more diversified trade, the less susceptible the country to random shocks affecting individual goods, so that shifts in the PPP ratio are lower. The more open the economy, the greater the weight of traded goods in the overall price indices, so that if exchange rates are determined by traded goods prices, yet empirical tests of PPP use national price indices, PPP should hold better in more open economies.     

开放条件下我国服务贸易结构性失衡与对策

加入WTO以来,随着服务业开放的保护性安排逐渐结束,我国服务贸易的结构性失衡呈现新的特点:传统服务业仍然维持一定规模贸易顺差,新兴服务业如金融、电信、信息、咨询等行业的贸易逆差增大。在新的开放条件下,服务贸易发展面临来自外国服务提供者的激烈竞争和挑战。笔者认为,我国服务贸易失衡是服务业竞争劣势的集中体现,有必要通过技术、管理和制度创新增强服务业竞争优势,同时要有效运用国际惯例和国内法律规范维护我国服务产业安全和服务贸易利益。     

服务贸易开放、市场化改革与中国制造业企业生产率

本文首先构建了一个微观企业生产理论框架,从理论上分析了在考虑国内产品替代效应的情况下,贸易开放如何影响下游制造业企业生产率,以及国内市场化程度对贸易开放政策效果的调节效应。其次,我们利用中国工业企业数据库和世界银行的服务贸易限制指数,实证检验了服务贸易开放对中国制造业企业生产率的影响。结果发现,服务贸易开放显著促进了我国制造业出口强度较大的企业的生产率提高,对出口强度较小的企业的促进作用不明显,并抑制了非出口企业生产率的提升;国内市场化水平提高能够增强服务贸易开放对出口企业生产率的促进作用,减弱服务贸易开放对非出口企业造成的负面冲击。此外,我们还发现:(1)市场化主要通过商业存在(FDI)渠道调节服务贸易政策效果;(2)服务贸易开放对国企以及非东部地区中的出口企业生产率的促进效应更为显著,而对非国企以及东部地区的非出口企业的不利冲击更大。在考虑内生性以及使用替换变量等检验后,结果仍然稳健。因此,当前阶段中国服务贸易政策需要同时兼顾出口企业与非出口企业,并协调国内市场化改革,稳中有序开放。     

Trade liberalization and the skill premium in developing economies

Empirical evidence shows that while the skill premium narrowed in some developing countries following trade liberalization, it widened in others, or even exhibited non-monotonic behavior. This paper studies a simple dynamic general equilibrium trade model in which differences in initial conditions across developing countries play a key role in explaining the variety of skill premium behaviors. Differences in initial conditions in terms of skilled labor and physical capital emerge in the model due to differences in trade policies. The model can generate non-monotonic behavior for the skill premium following trade liberalization.     

Country experience in providing for basic needs

The basic needs approach to development--i.e., providing such basic needs as health and education to the poorest sectors of the population--replaced a previous emphasis on general economic development. Basic needs include food, nutrition, health services, education, water, sanitation, and shelter. A World Bank study to evaluate the success of developing countries in meeting their populations' basic needs discloses great disparity among countries. The study used literacy and life expectancy figures for the evaluation. All developing countries had improved their provision of basic goods and services in the time between 1960 and 1977, but the improvement was not uniform. The countries' previous performance in this area and the national level of per capita income influenced their improved performance. Countries having egalitarian income distributions tended to perform better than would have been expected from the per capita income alone; countries with maldistributed incomes tended to perform worse. The following 3 types of economies were most successful in providing basic goods/services for their populations: 1) rapidly growing, market-oriented economies; 2) centrally planned economies; and 3) "mixed" economies with welfare intervention. Very poor economies, those with rapid growth and no substantial poverty reduction, and those with moderate growth and moderate poverty reduction were less successful. Macroeconomic frameworks can provide guidelines.