Embodying Embodiment in a Structural,Macroeconomic Input-Output Model

In this paper, I develop a regression-based system of labour productivity equations that account for capital-embodied technological change and I incorporate this system into IDLIFT, a structural, macroeconomic input-output model of the US economy. Builders of regression-based forecasting models have long had difficulty finding labour productivity equations that exhibit the "Solowian' property that movements in investment should cause accompanying movements in labour productivity. The production theory developed by Solow and others dictates that this causation is driven by the effect of traditional capital deepening as well as technological change embodied in capital. Lack of measurement of the latter has hampered the ability of researchers to estimate properly the productivity-investment relationship. Recent research by Wilson (2001) has alleviated this difficulty by estimating industry-level embodied technological change. In this paper, I utilize those estimates to construct capital stocks adjusted for technological change and then use these adjusted stocks to estimate Solow-type labour productivity equations. It is shown that replacing IDLIFT's former productivity equations, based on changes in output and time trends, with the new equations, results in a convergence between the dynamic behaviour of the model and that predicted by traditional (Solowian) production theory.     

The Dynamic Leontief Model and the Theory of Endogenous Growth

This paper shows that the dynamic Leontief model can be interpreted as a linear model of endogenous growth. The long-term rate of growth is determined within the economic system - either as the outcome of the saving and investment behaviour of agents or as the outcome of some planner's maximization of some objective function.     

二元经济的结构转变与增长分析

近来国外的许多研究利用现代经济增长理论的分析框架,从理论上探讨了结构转变对经济增长的重要性。但相关模型设定不尽符合我国二元经济的现实。本文结合我国实际、通过拓展相关理论模型,构建包含两个代表性个体、考虑劳动力转移成本和政府投入的二元经济增长模型,从理论上探讨我国结构转变与经济增长的关系,指出了政府投入对促进结构转变、加快经济增长的关键作用。进一步,本文还利用该模型解释了经济增长过程中的区域差距和城乡差距的变动,并探讨缩减经济差距的相关对策。     

Structural Change for Economic Growth

As soon as the post-war era of rapid economic growth had come to an end in the early 1970s, the intellectural fashion being to swing towards a renewed appreciation of economic growth and the 'classical' factors of growth saving hard work, enterprise, innovation and a legal framework which secures the property rights to the rewards of material progress and facilitates flexible adjustment by a competitives system. Professor Wolfgang Kasper of the University of New South Wales in Australia argues that the major challenge for societies in West and East, North and South alike is now to make the supply side of the economy more elastic and responsive to new opparatunities and circumstances.     

An International Comparison of Leontief Input-Output Coefficients and its Application to Structural Growth Patterns

Empirical sectoral analyses of a standard development pattern have focused upon changes in the value added, disregarding the structural changes in intermediate input. In a more comprehensive approach to the production function, the present paper analyses both sectoral intermediate inputs and the value added by using 45 input-output tables to discover a standard pattern of the changes in the input-output coefficients as an economy develops. The major findings are first a U-shape pattern of the average value added ratio and, conversely, an inverse U-shape pattern of the average intermediate input ratio. Secondly, as compared with principal input coefficients that are broadly stable, supplementary input coefficients exhibit the non-linear trends of an inverse U shape contributed by a rising trend in agriculture in the early stages, and a growing energy cost in most sectors, although this is partly offset by mild U shapes of transport and distribution costs. A similar inverse U-shape pattern is implied for the Leontief multiplier.     

Optimization in a Dynamic Leontief Model with Restricted Value Growth

The purpose of this paper is to develop a dynamic Leontief model of an msector economic system in which the production of all goods requires one time period and one primary factor, but no capital stocks of any good, and in which the total value of outputs from all sectors is required to grow at a specified rate in each period. The requirement of a fixed rate of total value growth is less restrictive than the familiar condition of balanced growth across all sectors, and it permits the definition and analysis of interesting finite-period optimization problems. Specific results of the paper include the following: (1) the proof that a value-added maximization problem with an unrestricted initial state will experience consumption in exactly one sector in each time period, and willyield an optimal value function which is linear in the variables that describe the terminal state of the system; (2) the development of an efficient Dantzig-Wolfe procedure for analysis of the total value-added maximization problem where both the initial and terminal states are specified; (3) the derivation of testable properties that will guarantee the attainability of a specified target state from a specified initial state of the system; (4) a formal comparison of some basic characteristics of total value growth and balanced value growth.     

技术外溢与吸收能力:基于开放经济下的内生增长模型分析

通过构建中间产品种类扩张型的内生增长模型,本文探讨了开放经济条件下技术外溢与本国技术吸收能力影响长期经济增长的内在机理。对模型的竞争性市场均衡分析得到了均衡增长路径的稳态增长率,并就解的政策含义进行了讨论。模型的基本结论是：技术吸收能力的提高、人力资本积累以及适度的知识产权保护有利于长期经济增长,然而贸易开放度、技术水平差距对稳态增长率的影响效应具有不确定性。     

服务业结构变迁与经济增长效率

从长期看,服务业结构变迁促进经济增长效率提高。但是由于短期内受到要素扭曲等多种因素影响,服务业结构变迁对经济增长效率的影响过程非常复杂。本文将服务业结构变迁划分为服务业结构合理化和高度化,构建服务业结构变迁对经济增长效率影响的动态面板模型,并选取1999—2012年中国30个省级区域的面板数据,运用系统GMM方法进行实证检验。结果表明,服务业结构合理化与经济增长效率显著正相关,服务业结构高度化则与经济增长效率显著负相关。由于人才、知识等要素“质量”不匹配,中国知识密集型服务业的附加值偏低,在全球价值链分工中处于“低端嵌入”状态,这是服务业结构高度化抑制经济增长效率提高的重要原因。     

一个基于产品水平创新和人力资本的内生增长模型

本文首先介绍了内生增长理论的三条主线,并在此基础上分析了罗默模型与卢卡斯模型融合的逻辑合理性;其次在罗默模型基础上引入卢卡斯把人力资本内生化思想,构造了一个新的模型,并找出了新模型的均衡解;最后,通过比较新模型的结果与上述两个模型的结果,我们发现,对实现经济持续均衡增长而言,重要的不仅是教育与研发投入的规模,更重要的是人力资本投入的效率。     

Biproportional Techniques in Input-Output Analysis: Table Updating and Structural Analysis

This paper introduces the rest of this issue of Economic Systems Research, which is dedicated to the contributions of Sir Richard Stone, Michael Bacharach, and Philip Israilevich. It starts out with a brief history of biproportional techniques and related matrix balancing algorithms. We then discuss the RAS algorithm developed by Sir Richard Stone and others. We follow that by evaluating the interpretability of the product of the adjustment parameters, generally known as R and S. We then move on to discuss the various formal formulations of other biproportional approaches and discuss what defines an algorithm as 'biproportional'. After mentioning a number of competing optimization algorithms that cannot fall under the rubric of being biproportional, we reflect upon how some of their features have been included into the biproportional setting (the ability to fix the value of interior cells of the matrix being adjusted and of incorporating data reliability into the algorithm). We wind up the paper by pointing out some areas that could use further investigation.     

闲暇效应与内生增长——基于中国和瑞典数据的分析研究

本文综合利用社会学与心理学的研究成果对闲暇的经济含义进行了扩展,认为闲暇对生产具有积极的互补效应,并通过将该类效应引入到带人力资本的卢卡斯内生增长模型,利用中国和瑞典的相关数据进行分析。本文的计量分析显示,瑞典的闲暇增加对经济增长具有正作用,但中国与此相反,因而瑞典的技术进步、人口状态等因素对增长的作用优于中国。最后,本文建议推动休闲经济发展、适时推进弹性工作制,实现"工作—闲暇平衡"。     

企业成长动力系统模型及其动力学分析

企业成长是企业永恒的目标,而企业动力是企业成长的推动力量,本文从企业活动主体的角度构建起企业成长动力系统模型,利用系统动力学对动力系统模型进行了分析和验证,并对系统的各要素进行了详细的分析,最后就如何强化企业动力机制提出了建议。     

能源研发与内生经济增长

本文在内生经济增长理论的基础上,建立含能源研发的经济增长模型,借助动态优化的方法,分析能源研发对经济增长的关键作用。研究结果表明:能源研发活动具有规模收益递增的特点,对能源供应源的扩张具有特殊贡献,有助于经济摆脱能源的约束,实现可持续增长。     

中国出口结构变革和经济增长的协整分析

本文在以前研究的基础上探讨了出口和经济增长的关系,并考虑出口结构变化对经济增长的影响。不仅证实了出口和经济增长相互促进关系,还证实了出口结构的变化也是促进经济增长的有利因素之一。     

Endogenous Growth: Estimating the Romer Model for the US and Germany*

By contrasting endogenous growth models with facts, one is frequently confronted with the prediction that levels of economic variables, such as R&D expenditures, imply lasting effects on the growth rate of an economy. As stylized facts show, the research intensity in most advanced countries has dramatically increased, mostly more than the GDP. Yet, the growth rates have roughly remained constant or even declined. In this paper we modify the Romer endogenous growth model and test our variant of the model using time series data. We estimate the market version both for the US and Germany for the time period January 1962 to April 1996. Our results demonstrate that the model is compatible with the time series for aggregate data in those countries. All parameters fall into a reasonable range.     

经济内生增长中的货币超中性

本文在希德劳斯基分析框架下，利用内生增长模型分析了货币增长对在经济稳定状态下资本存量和消费水平的影响。     

The Lowry Model Revisited: Incorporating a Multizonal Input-Output Model into an Urban Land Use Allocation Model

This paper formulates a new generation of Lowry-style models that combine a multizonal input-output model and an urban land use allocation model. Three different types of models are proposed: 1) an unconstrained model, 2) a primal of a linear programming approach that includes land supply constraints, and 3) a modified dual of the linear programming approach that allocates land based on additional conditions of economic efficiency. The modified dual formulation improves upon the limitations of Lowry models and their derivatives. First, the proposed model has sound theoretical underpinnings that incorporate the production theory of input-output models and the behavioral theory of optimization models. Second, the proposed model allocates land on the basis of economic efficiency by imposing a procedure that equalizes shadow prices. And third, the proposed model is an optimization model that fully accounts for the spatial and sectoral relationships of multiplier effects determining land use demand.     

效率视角下技术结构调整与经济发展方式转变

本文提出了技术结构与经济发展方式的机理系统,揭示了合理的技术结构能够促进经济发展方式的良性转变,而保持合理技术结构的关键就是提升高等技术的研发投入效率。选取中国长三角地区的面板数据,以效率为视角将技术结构纳入投入要素,采用基于投入产出效率的DEA方法进行了实证分析,证实了经济发展方式最终是由技术结构系统内生出来的高等技术研发效率所决定的。针对效率损失,计算出了技术结构的改进值作为参照。最后,针对上述地区合理利用技术结构的现状,提出了相应对策。     

Sources of Structural Change and Output Growth of China's Economy: 1987-92

This paper examines the sources of structural changes in output growth of China’s economy over 1987–92 using a decomposition method within the input-output (IO) framework. The model uses three comparable IO tables of 1987, 1990, and 1992 as the main data sources; it accounts for output changes from a demand side perspective and decomposes the growth of output into consumption demand, investment demand, export, import, and intermediate use (indicated by changes in IO coefficients). Special attention is given to identifying the effects of government policies on economic growth and structural change. It is found that overall output growth was multi-components driven rather than single-factor led; the share of the contribution to output growth from consumption and investment expansion declined and that from export and import increased. Whilst the efficiency of factor utilisation remains an issue of further research, a remarkable rise in IO coefficient share indicates a deepening and strong interdependence between industrial sectors over the data period. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Endogenous International Technology Spillovers and Biased Technical Change in Agriculture

This paper analyzes trade-related knowledge flows from an innovating country to other countries. It is assumed that knowledge is embodied in commodities traded between countries and that the potential productivity of this knowledge is determined by the local usability of foreign technologies. The usability of foreign knowledge is dependent on the local absorption capacity (such as knowledge infrastructure and human capital) and on structural differences (factor endowments or climate) between countries. In agriculture, a large portion of the knowledge is embodied in inputs which cause factor-biased technical change in the receiving sectors. Trade-related knowledge transmission is introduced in an applied multi-region general equilibrium model (GTAP) to study the macro-economic and sectoral impacts of knowledge spillovers and of trade policies. Endogenous embodied technology spillovers bear some important implications for trade policy, because protective measures preclude countries not only from cheaper imports but also from foreign technologies.