Food security and structural adjustment: Empirical evidence on the food price dilemma in Southern Africa

This article considers effects of price on food security and the food equation in the developing areas of South Africa. Firstly, the food (or hunger) equation is examined in more detail. Secondly, thefood price dilemma is analysed using empirical data obtained elsewhere in sub‐Saharan Africa. Thirdly, the situation in the developing areas of South Africa is examined. Empirical evidence in sub‐Saharan and Southern Africa accentuates the skewness and concentration in the market participation profile of rural households with respect to especially staples. Supply response to higher prices in these areas is also limited. These findings place the food price dilemma on centre stage in Southern Africa.     

The challenges facing empirical estimation of household food (in)security in South Africa

This paper sets out to describe current principle theoretical positions in food security research, describe and compare empirical South African food security studies with key international methodologies and pose research challenges for food security research in the country. Scant available food security studies for South Africa seem to indicate that food insecurity and hunger exist and are likely to increase due to increasing food price trends, greater reliance on cash food purchases and spiralling vulnerability as a result of HIV/AIDS morbidity and mortality. Empirical research is urgently needed to determine the coping strategies of households under ‘normal’ conditions, identify vulnerable households, and monitor the impact of various shocks and stresses on household food security.     

Regional food security and agricultural policy in southern Africa: A challenge of policy conversion in diverse settings

Regional food security is viewed as one of the major challenges for the Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries and the important role of agriculture in this challenge has been highlighted. This article confirms these notions, but continues to argue the complexity and diversity of the region, the importance of creating agricultural policy conversion and harmonisation, despite this diverse setting, and the parameters for agriculture to support food security in the region. Timmer's agricultural 'growth' model is adapted and applied to the southern African region to create a framework for such conversion.     

Using climate models to improve Indonesian food security

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events exert significant influence on Southeast Asian rice output and markets. This paper measures ENSO effects on Indonesia's national and regional rice production and on world rice prices, using the August Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) to gauge climate variability. It shows that each degree Celsius change in the August SSTA produces a 1,318,000 metric ton effect on output and a $21/metric ton change in the world price for lower quality rice. Of the inter-annual production changes due to SSTA variation, 90% occur within 12 provinces, notably Java and South Sulawesi. New data and models offer opportunities to understand the agricultural effects of ENSO events, to reach early consensus on coming ENSO effects, and to use forecasting to improve agencies' and individuals' capacity to mitigate climate effects on food security. We propose that Indonesia hold an ‘ENSO summit’ each September to analyse the food-security implications of upcoming climate events.     

Access to savings and household welfare evidence from a household survey in The Gambia

In this study, we provide evidence on the impact of access to formal savings on household well‐being in The Gambia. Specifically, we study how access to formal savings can impact household outcomes such as total spending, ownership of durable assets, health spending, and education spending. Using a representative household survey and kernel ridge regression method, we find that household access to formal savings has a positive and statistically significant impact on all outcomes except health spending. Furthermore, we find that the largest effect size of access to savings is on education spending. However, the impact estimates on education and food expenditure are not very robust to a mild presence of hidden bias. Overall, we find a robust impact for total spending and asset ownership. Hence, increasing household access to formal savings can improve household well‐being in The Gambia.     

Housing price and household savings rates: evidence from China

This article investigates the effect of house prices on household savings rates in urban China employing the 2002 and 2007 data of the Chinese Households Income Project (CHIP). We find that the rapid appreciation of house prices cannot explain high Chinese households’ savings rates and the rising of Chinese savings rates. On the contrary, we find a negative relationship between house prices and household savings rates for home renters and homeowners. We do not find any evidence of ‘savings for housing purchase’ for young home renters when house prices increase. Their savings rates declined during housing market booms in recent 10?years. Savings rates of homeowners possessing multiple housing have decreased more because of ‘the pure housing wealth effects.’     

Debt and household finance: evidence from the Financial Diaries

The Financial Diaries data-set is a unique, new set of year-long daily income, expense and financial transactions for households from three different areas of South Africa. These data show that over-indebted households (those that spend 20 per cent or more of their gross monthly income on debt) do not fit one homogeneous profile. Formal debt tends to be responsible for over-indebtedness in the urban areas, while in the rural areas the cause tends to be informal debt. In the urban areas high indebtedness is more prevalent among medium-income and high-income households, whereas in the rural areas it occurs at all income levels. High indebtedness in grant-dependent rural households tends to be persistent, whereas in wage-dependent urban households it is often short-lived. These findings present a new financial picture of poor rural populations that is unlikely to be touched by recent policy measures to address over-indebtedness.     

Water management options for food security in South Africa: scenarios,simulations and policy implications

Recent research activities of the International Water Management Institute on water and food security have led to the development of a user‐friendly simulation model, Podium, to test national policy options on water allocation to different uses. This article presents an application of the model to South Africa, where water resources development and management constitute a high national priority. Data on demography, nutritional requirements, food imports and exports, climate and hydrology are used to create scenarios about meeting future water requirements for food production while simultaneously satisfying the water requirements of other sectors. The simulation results highlight the need to improve productivity in irrigation and also intensify rainfed agriculture to avoid future food insecurity, especially under high population projections. Merely expanding irrigated areas will not make significant impacts on national‐level food security. There also appears to be scope for increasing domestic per capita water consumption without altering current diversions for agriculture and other requirements.     

Indexation and household saving behavior: Some empirical evidence from finnish data

Zusammenfassung Indexierung und das Sparverhalten der privaten Haushalte: Empirische Evidenz aus Finnland. - In diesem Aufsatz werden finnische Daten über indexierte Depositenkonten benutzt, um die Wirkungen der Indexierung auf das Sparverhalten der privaten Haushalte empirisch zu belegen. Die Ergebnisse best?tigen, da\ bei Unsicherheit über die Inflationsrate die Absicherungsmóglichkeit einer voll indexierten Finanzanlage dazu führt, da\ sich der Anteil der indexierten Anlage am gesamten Sparkapital vergró\ert. Diese Folgerung scheint ziemlich stabil zu sein gegenüber verschiedenen N?herungswerten für das private Vermógen, Modifikationen des Grundmodells und der Sch?tzmethoden. W?hrend die Indexierung das Banksparen positiv beeinflu\t hat, konnte kein me\barer Einflu\ auf die Sparquote insgesamt nachgewiesen werden.

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Résumé Indexation et le comportement d’épargne des ménages: Quelque évidence empirique des données finnoises. - Dans cet article des données finnoises concernant des comptes de dépót indexés sont utilisées pour trouver l’évidence empirique sur les effets de l’indexation sur le comportement d’épargne des ménages. Les résultats supportent la vue que la ?hedging? capabilité d’un actif complètement indexé favorise en présence de l’incertitude sur le taux d’inflation l’actif indexé. Cette conclusion semble être assez robuste après qu’ on a utilisé d’autres variables approximatives pour la richesse de ménage et modifié le modèle de base et les méthodes d’estimation. Pendant que l’indexation a fait monter la portion de l’épargne bancaire, il n’y a pas d’effet mesurable sur l’épargne total.

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Resumen Indexación y ahorro de los hogares: evidencia empírica de datos finlandeses. - En este trabajo se utilizan datos de Finlandia sobre depósitos bancarios indizados para obtener evidencia empírica de los efectos de la indexación sobre el ahorro los hogares. Los resultados confirman la noción de que la capacidad de “hedging” de un activo integramente indizado bajo condiciones de inflación incierta causa una realocación através de una demanda de ?hedging? en favor de una parte mayor del activo indizado. Esta conclusión parece bastante robusta con respecto a las ?proxies? para el patrimonio de los hogares, modificaciones del modelo básico y los métodos de estimación. Los resultados empíricos con respecto al efecto sobre la cuota de ahorro no revelaron ning?n impacto mensurable. El ahorro bancario, por otro lado, resultó afectado positivamente.

     

Impacts of household loan regulation on financial stability: evidence from Korea

The paper examines whether banking regulations and monetary policy contributed to controlling the fragility of household debt in Korea. The results show that housing loan regulations such as debt to income regulation contributed to a lower household debt delinquency ratio. Lowering the target interest rate provided additional stabilisation of the delinquency ratio. It is recommended that the government adopt an appropriate mix of regulation and monetary policy to control household financial fragility. The financial supervisory services need to be involved in managing debt to income regulation and minimising financial instability and financial market distortions. Further, the monetary authority has to adopt a more effective position in controlling the real lending interest rate and the delinquency ratio of household loans. Such a policy mix will improve effectiveness in controlling financial fragility, especially at a time of financial crisis.     

Individual preferences on trade liberalization: evidence from a Japanese household survey

This paper studies an individual’s preference on trade liberalization using a Japanese household survey, the Keio Household Panel Survey. As a result, we show that preferences toward trade liberalization are affected by economic factors (income, gender, family, asset, and job status) as well as noneconomic factors (noncognitive factors and behaviroal biases). We find that male, educated, and people with smaller family prefer trade liberalization. Furthermore, people who prefer liberty to equality and have less local patriotism, tend to be positive to trade liberalization.

     

Gender exclusion in social security protection: evidence from Korea

This study provides an evaluation of the impact of Korea's stratified labour market on the gaps in wages and social security coverage using the raw data from the supplementary surveys conducted by the Korean National Statistics Office. The study confirms the existence of a labour market stratified by employment type/gender/unionised or non‐unionised/firm size. The labour market structure is not only reflected in the distribution of wages but also in the social security coverage. The empirical result suggests that gender and employment type are the key variables determining the likelihood of social security exclusion. With the other conditions controlled, the female worker has a 65 per cent likelihood of exclusion, and the non‐standard worker has a 40.9 per cent likelihood. For female non‐standard workers, the situation is worse. Their likelihood of exclusion from social security soars to 80.1 per cent. The empirical results with respect to other fringe benefits not mandated by law exhibit the same pattern of social security exclusion. The empirical results emphasise the limitations of gender policy intended to rectify gender discrimination or exclusion alone and suggest a matrix policy that takes into consideration the complex labour market structure.     

Japan's fertility transition: Empirical evidence from the bounds testing approach to cointegration

This study investigates the determinants of the fertility rate in Japan over the 1950–2000 period. We use, for the first time in the fertility literature, the bounds testing approach to cointegration. Amongst our key results, we find that, in both the short-run and long-run, the use of contraceptives and abortion have significantly contributed to the fertility decline in Japan. We also find statistically significant evidence that increasing age at marriage in Japan and increasing education level of women have contributed negatively to the fertility transition.     

Convergence in food consumption in Rural China: Evidence from household survey data

The aims of this paper are to propose an econometric model for studying consumption convergence, to apply the model to a set of panel data from China, and to discuss various implications of research results. Major findings of the paper include (a) conditional convergence is confirmed for total grain, fine grain, edible oil, poultry, aquatic product, and sugar; (b) animal fat and red meat exhibit consumption divergence; (c) rising income inequality and underdevelopment of market are identified to be obstacles to consumption convergence; and (d) for commodities that converge, the speed of convergence is slow.     

Price expectations and consumption under deflation: evidence from Japanese household survey data

The Japanese economy has experienced price deflation since the mid-1990s. Despite the importance of overcoming deflation, there has been little recent research on price expectations in Japan. This paper takes advantage of an original and rich quarterly household-level data set from the “Kokumin Seikatsu Monitors” to estimate average price expectations, examine the factors that affect price expectations, and examine how changes in price expectations have affected household consumption. Our estimates indicate that average price expectations ranged from minus 0.2 to 0% in 2001 and 2002. However, there was an increase to 1% in the first quarter of 2003, followed by a decline to 0.2% in the second quarter, and a steady increase toward 0.8% by the first quarter of 2004. Price expectations depend on current price movements and lagged expectations. A series of quantitative easing monetary policies were not very effective in changing the price expectations, since the policy announcements caused revision of price expectations only for a small portion, i.e., 5–10% of people surveyed. The jump observed in the first quarter of 2003 was a reaction to the outbreak of the Iraq war. Our study also confirms that deflationary expectations discourage household consumption, mainly durable consumption, by delaying the timing of purchases, suggesting that the deflationary expectations should be upwardly revised to restore a vital Japanese economy.     

Property rights security and firm survival: Micro-data evidence from China

The security of property rights has been found to play important roles in various aspects of firm behaviors. However, its effects on firm survival have been largely neglected in previous research. Using annual data of Chinese manufacturing firms over the period 1998–2008, we analyze the link between property rights security and firms' survival probabilities, differentiating firms into stated-owned enterprises (SOEs) and non-SOEs, and considering whether the linkage evolves over time. Examining a wide range of specifications, we find that the protection of property rights, by limiting government intervention and promulgating laws and rules, is crucial for firm survival. Moreover, better security of property rights benefits non-SOEs more. We also find that the beneficial effects of secure property rights on firm survival are more pronounced for years after 2003 when China speeded up deregulation to comply with its WTO commitments and reform target to establish a modern system of property rights than for years before 2002.     

The Schweinkopf hypothesis: Empirical evidence and refutation from Mansakonko

One of the central theorems in statistics is challenged by reported observations from the community of Mansakonko. This ambiguity threatens the precision of economic projections and thus development programme management. A review of the Mansakonko case suggests that the data supporting these observations are as accurate as can be expected under field conditions. Practical consequences of the apparent theoretical inconsistency led to an international games‐playing situation in which a transitory win‐win solution was achieved. Further research (s suggested to definitively resolve the theoretical impasse.     

Investment under credit rationing and uncertainty: evidence from South Africa

We construct an empirical model of corporate investment whichallows for the various effects of uncertainty and credit marketimperfections described in the theoretical literature. The modelis estimated using cross-sectional data from the South Africanstock exchange. Evidence is found for some (but not all) ofthe predictions of the relevant theoretical models, and differencesbetween firms in different sectors and of different sizes arenoted.