Indebtedness,tenancy and the adoption of new technology in semi-feudal agriculture

The paper seeks to analyse the relationships between usurious money-lending, share tenancy and the incentives for the adoption of new technology by the semi-feudal landlords who typically combine the roles of landowner and money-lender vis-á-vis the tenants. It is argued that in a labour-abundant economy, ‘tenant-indebtedness’, by itself, is not likely to restrict the adoption of technological improvements. The adoption of new technology does not automatically improve the economic conditions of the tenants, nor does it necessarily transform the semi-feudal relations of production into capitalist ones.     

An application of the extended Technology Acceptance Model in understanding technology-enabled financial service adoption in South Africa

The last 10 years have seen a significant increase in the provision of consumer services through technology. Computers, mobile phones, the Internet and self-service kiosks are examples of technology platforms that have enabled services to be offered to consumers in new ways. In South Africa, technology-enabled financial services have the potential to expand financial inclusion, especially at the bottom of the pyramid. There is a need to understand how consumers adopt technology-enabled services. Using grounded theory, an enhancement to the Technology Acceptance Model is proposed and developed to explain adoption of technology-enabled financial services. Confirmatory factor analysis is used to validate the model against data obtained from a survey. The proposed model fits the data well. Implications of the model are discussed.     

Measuring the monetary policy stance of the People's bank of china: An ordered probit analysis

The People's Bank of China (PBC) has employed a range of different instruments in the implementation of its monetary policy over the past decades, so perhaps no single instrument would constitute an adequate representation of the monetary policy stance. We thus develop a new policy stance index, and examine it in an ordered probit model, which follows the studies by Gerlach (2004) and He and Pauwels (2008). The empirical results show that in a backward-looking model, monetary policy reacts to actual output growth; one the other hand, when deviations from trend levels are considered, the PBC concerns inflation most seriously. In a forward-looking model, when we examine the PBC's statements in its quarterly Monetary Policy Executive Report from 2001Q1 to 2010Q3, it seems that the PBC's assessment of the prospects for inflation plays a key role determining the PBC's monetary policy stance. Our conclusions suggest that the PBC is informally targeting inflation, although no explicit target has ever been announced to the public by the PBC.     

Flexibility in input substitution: A case study of South African agriculture

Differences in elasticities of substitution between agricultural inputs over time in South African agricultural production were measured. The translog functional specification was used for empirical estimation of factor share equations derived from cost data. This was done by using duality that exists between the production function and the cost function along the expansion path. South African agriculture exhibits less flexibility in dealing with input price variation, especially machinery, than US agriculture. The relative rigidity of the South African agricultural production process may at least partially be attributed to present competitive structures, and has important implications for development policy, especially with regard to the success obtained with policy measures favouring relative input subsidisation over the short term.     

Labour trends in agriculture: The case of the summer rainfall grain‐producing area

The impact of changes in the labour force on commercial agriculture has received little systematic research attention. In this study the major trends in the post‐war years are described and analysed. It is shown that there has been an increasing substitution of labour for capital over the past fifteen years. The causes of this substitution trend are identified, and it is shown that these should be taken into account in the formulation of farm policy. Labour trends in commercial agriculture also have implications for the broader Southern African economy, and some tentative remarks in this regard serve as motivation for further research.     

How to assess the significance of export incentives: An application to turkey

How to Assess the Significance of Export Incentives: An Application to Turkey. - This paper analyzes the changes in the structure of export incentives in Turkey from 1983 to 1990. It shows that during the 1980s the level of the economy-wide subsidy rates and that of the inter-industry dispersion of incentives have substantially been lowered. Using the estimates of the effective subsidy figures it is shown that the Turkish export- and import-competing industries have benefited from the export incen-tives more than the other sectors. Finally, it is emphasized that the system of export incentives is too complicated and is therefore blurring the transparency of the incentive system.     

On the Determinants of Surges and Stops in Foreign Loans: An Empirical Investigation

This paper examines the determinants of surge and stop episodes in foreign loans using quarterly data from 55 countries covering 1990Q1 to 2011Q4. The estimation results show that, first, global, contagion and domestic factors are all significantly associated with both loan-led surge and stop episodes. Second, domestic factors are more relevant to stops than to surges and are associated more strongly with episodes in emerging countries than with those in advanced countries. Third, global risk and domestic growth shock are most consistent and important in predicting both types of episodes. Fourth, financial linkage is the most important contagion channel in the occurrence of loan-led episodes. Fifth, capital control is not a useful tool for avoiding either type of episode and may actually increase their likelihood. Finally, stops in emerging countries are strongly related to macroeconomic fundamentals such as inflation, current account balance, net foreign assets, real exchange rate, and previous occurrence of surge episodes. Our results strongly suggest that emerging countries with lower institutional quality levels are more likely to experience both surges and stops.     

中国制造业空间分布影响因素的实证研究

利用2002年度中国省区/行业数据,本文估计了一个包含比较优势、新经济地理、知识外溢以及地方保护主义的中国制造业布局影响因素模型。回归结果支持了上述各种力量在制造业分布中所发挥的作用,并且特别强调了新经济地理和知识溢出在集聚经济过程中的因果累积循环性质。研究表明,对外开放、城市化、工业基础的增强、交通设施的改善和地方保护主义的削弱将非常有利于中国制造业的进一步集聚,知识溢出的作用也同样不容忽视。     

The Determinants of Life Expectancy: An Analysis of the OECD Health Data

This study considers an aggregate life expectancy production function for a sample of developed countries. We find that pharmaceutical consumption has a positive effect on life expectancy at middle and advanced ages but is sensitive to the age distribution of a given country. Thus, ignoring age distribution in a regression of life expectancy on pharmaceutical consumption creates an omitted-variable bias in the pharmaceutical coefficient. We find that doubling annual pharmaceutical expenditures adds about one year of life expectancy for males at age 40 and slightly less than a year of life expectancy for females at age 65. We also present results for lifestyle inputs into the production of life expectancy. For example, decreasing tobacco consumption by about two cigarettes per day or increasing fruit and vegetable consumption by 30% (one-third pound per day) increases life expectancy approximately one year for 40-year-old females.     

The choice of exchange rate regimes in the MENA countries: a probit analysis

This paper analyses empirically the determinants of exchange rate regime choice in 17 MENA countries. For this purpose, we use both de jure and de facto regime classifications test and estimate a series of binomial and multinomial probit models. Regressions results highlight the important influence of two factors: trade openness and oil export capacity.     

Determinants of shrimp importation into the USA: an application of an augmented gravity model

Shrimp farmers in the USA are facing the situation of increased imports resulting in reduced market share, falling prices, and reduced profitability for their farm-raised shrimp. The study examined the determinants of shrimp imports from China, Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia using an augmented gravity model of international trade. The results reveal that US imports from the four exporting countries are significantly affected by the GDP of exporting countries, GDP of the USA, exchange rate, unit import value (proxy for import price) of shrimp, and tariff. Tariff policy has implications for the US shrimp industry.     

Putting Out Fires: An Examination of the Determinants of State Clean Indoor-Air Laws

Although numerous studies have examined the effect of clean indoor-air laws on tobacco consumption, a handful of other studies have sought to address the demand for smoking restrictions. This paper adds to this body of research by using a random effects Probit procedure that controls for the endogeneity of cigarette consumption and cigarette taxes to estimate the determinants of clean indoor-air laws. By treating cigarette consumption and cigarette taxes as exogenous, we found that taxes complement smoking restrictions. However, when we accounted for endogeneity, the role of cigarette taxes shifted toward being a policy substitute. Results further revealed that the probability of a state adopting a smoking restriction is particularly sensitive to per capita cigarette consumption, political affiliation, metropolitan population, per capita income, and tobacco production.     

Determinants of Current Account Imbalances in 16 OECD Countries: An Out-Of-Sample Perspective

We employ panel data as well as country-specific models to uncover empirically the determinants of current account imbalances. We find evidence of slope heterogeneity likely rendering the fixed-effect estimator inconsistent. Mean group estimation is followed to overcome the latter difficulty. Both estimation techniques are evaluated by means of in- and out-of-sample criteria. The mean group estimator outperforms the fixed-effect approach and, moreover, only three economic variables are found to impact on the current account balance significantly. These are the government budget balance, the domestic output gap and the changes of the terms of trade. We finally propose a parsimonious dynamic model of the current account, including only these variables and illustrate that it has similar predictive accuracy as country-specific benchmark models. JEL no. F32, C23, C53     

Intermarket network externalities and competition: An application to the media industry

Intermarket network externalities occur when the utility of a good produced in a given industry varies with the size of the demand for a good produced in another. A particularly significant example of this phenomenon is provided by the interaction between the media and advertising industries. Media consumers vary according to their willingness to pay for a media good, which depends on the advertising volume. In the advertising market, advertisers vary according to their willingness to pay for an advertisement, which also depends positively on the audience reached. We model a situation of competition between two content providers who are rivals in both the media and advertising industries, choosing simultaneously the newspaper prices and the advertising rates. We characterize the equilibria of the game and explore how they depend on audience attitudes towards advertising. Our main finding is that two-sided interactions may induce exit by one of the media companies from either only the advertising market or both markets.     

Teaching to the tests: An economic analysis of traditional and modern education in late imperial and republican China

A traditional education system, based on the Confucian classics, was a pillar of imperial China's social structure for centuries, preparing elites for a series of highly competitive exams conferring gentry status and civil service positions. Reformers in late imperial China called for the modernization of educational institutions, seeing in Western education the skills necessary to develop China's economy. In the late 19th century, the traditional education system was joined by a “modern”, Western track, which offered teaching in science, math, social science, law, and engineering. In this paper, early 20th century employee records from the Tianjin-Pukou Railroad are analyzed to identify differences in labor market outcomes associated with study in the traditional and modern educational systems. The employee records reveal that modern and traditional education were both associated with wage premiums, but that these were significantly larger for individuals trained at high levels in the modern system, especially those trained in engineering. Individuals trained in the traditional system worked disproportionately in the clerical department of the railroad, while those with modern education were more often in managerial and technical roles. Qualitative and quantitative evidence suggests that these results are not driven by sorting into educational institutions according to ability. These findings indicate that beyond years of schooling, the content of schooling can play an important role in the process of economic development.     

Technology adoption and multiple growth paths: An intertemporal general equilibrium analysis of the catch-up process in Thailand

As opposed to the Veblen—Gerschenkron catching-up hypothesis, the recent literature allows for technological divergence in backward economies. We extend a nonlinear adoption function to include openness and interact with capital accumulation in an intertemporal general equilibrium framework. The threshold gap necessary to catch up is endogenously determined by the economy's absorptive capacity. The model generates multiple transition growth paths depending on whether technological catch-up is achieved, and due to the endogeneity of the threshold gap, endogenous switching between development paths might be observed. Our simulations of the Thailand experience show how lack of investment in education and protectionism generate loss of transition growth and technological divergence. The paper highlights the role of absorptive capacity, and especially its importance for economies on the balance between low growth and high growth paths. JEL no. O41, O53     

日本对东盟直接投资新发展及其影响要素的实证研究

21世纪以来日本对东盟的直接投资在投资规模、国别分布和行业结构等方面呈现出显著变化。文章对影响日本向东盟直接投资的内、外部要素进行了六大假设和预期,运用2000～2010年的相关数据对各种影响因素的作用方向和作用程度进行了多元统计分析和实证分析并得出结论。预计短期内日本仍将重视在东盟传统产业的投资,长期看东盟也将是日本未来新兴产业投资转移在亚洲的主要承接区,并将成为中国引入优质日资的有力竞争对手。     

The erosion of agriculture in an oil economy: The case of export crop production in Trinidad

This paper examines the pressures upon export agriculture in Trinidad that have led to dramatic declines in sugar, cocoa, copra and citrus production over the past two decades. Data drawn from official publications and primary surveys reveal the financial strains on the industry and highlight the adverse impact of the oil economy. The latter is manifested through inflationary pressures on wage rates, the funding of major capital projects offering alternative employment opportunities, the uncontrolled expansion of recurrent expenditure on politically motivated job creation schemes that have aided withdrawal of labor from socially and financially less rewarding agricultural employment, and an escalation in land values which has diminished the need for agricultural improvement. Particular concern for the decline is expressed as efficiency and future viability of the new power-based manufacturing developments have yet to be proved.