Stochastic Index Numbers: A Review

The stochastic approach is a new way of viewing index numbers in which uncertainty and statistical ideas play a central role. Rather than just providing a single number for the rate of inflation, the stochastic approach provides the whole probability distribution of inflation. This paper reviews the key elements of the approach and then discusses its early history, including some previously overlooked links with Fisher's work contained in his book The Making of Index Numbers. We then consider some more recent developments, including Diewert's well-known critique of the stochastic approach, and provide responses to his criticisms. We also provide a review of Theil's work on the stochastic approach, and present and extend Diewert's work on this topic within the context of the Country Product Dummy method which measures price levels internationally. The paper also contains some recent material on the value of information from the perspective of the stochastic approach, as well as illustrative applications.     

When product type experimental design is optimal? Brief survey and new results

In the paper the problem of optimum experimental design for estimating parameters of multivariate regression functions is considered. We address the question: under what conditions one can compose the optimal design from partial designs, obtained by considering partial regressions, which depend on reduced number of variables. After reinterpreting and reviewing briefly existing results we provide some new conditions.     

Testing for serial correlation in simultaneous equation models: Some further results

In this paper approximate counterparts of the exact tests earlier proposed by the authors are examined. Type 1 error probabilities and test powers are estimated and compared using Monte Carlo experiments. The effect on the Type 1 error probabilities of the misspecification which results when serial correlation is present elsewhere in the system is also investigated.     

Tests for model specification in the presence of alternative hypotheses: Some further results

In Davidson and MacKinnon (1981), two of the present authors proposed a novel and very simple procedure for testing the specification of a nonlinear regression model against the evidence provided by a non-nested alternative. In this paper we extend their results in several directions. First, we relax a number of the assumptions of the previous paper; we admit the possibility that the nonlinear regression functions may depend on lagged dependent variables, and we do not require that the error terms be normally distributed. Second, we show how the earlier procedure may straightforwardly be generalized to the case where the two non-nested models involve different transformations of the dependent variable. Finally, we propose a simple procedure for testing non-nested linear regression models which have endogenous variables on the right-hand side, and have therefore been estimated by two-stage least squares.     

Contract design in dynamic agency: An experimental analysis

This paper reports results from an experiment studying contract design in a dynamic 2‐period agency relationship with unobservable effort. A deferred compensation contract is theoretically optimal—it places all incentives on the outcomes in the second period. Observed contract choices offer a substantial part of the incentives for the high outcome in the first period suggesting a strong preference for timely rewards. Information about theoretically optimal bonuses and effort decisions shifts contract choices towards a deferred compensation contract. This contract structure is more profitable for principal participants.     

Optimal experimental design in econometrics: The time series problem

Experiments in economics are expensive in terms of dollars and time. This suggests that efficient design is crucial, and that there is a need for econometricians to extend design theory to handle peculiarities of economic experimentation. This paper concerns optimal experimental design for various time series models. Examples are presented illustrating the improvement in estimation accuracy that can be obtained.     

Subdifferentiability and lipschitz continuity in experimental design problems

The calculus of concave functions is a widely accepted tool for optimum experimental design problems. However, as a function of the support points and the weights the design problem fails to be concave. In this paper we make use of generalized gradients in the sense of Rockafellar (1980) and Clarke (1983). A chain rule is presented for the subdifferential of the composition of an information function with the moment matrix mapping. Lipschitz continuity of the global design function is proved and conditions for strict differentiability are given.     

评价与优选线路设计方案的DEA方法

根据数据包络分析方法的特点,提出了运用DEA模型对线路设计方案进行评价与优选,阐述了应用的步骤。通过实例验证了方法的可行性与有效性,并可得出非有效方案的缺陷所在,提出改进措施,为决策者提供更多管理信息。     

Comparing alternative tests of causality in temporal systems: Analytic results and experimental evidence

This paper discusses eight alternative tests of the absence of casual ordering, all of which are asymptotically valid under the null hypothesis in the sense that their limiting size is known. Their behavior under alternatives is compared analytically using the concept of approximate slope, and these results are supported by the outcomes of Monte Carlo experiments. The implications of these comparisons for applied work are unambiguous: Wald variants of a test attributed to Granger, and a lagged dependent variable version of Sim's test introduced in this paper, are equivalent in all relevant respects and are preferred to the other tests discussed.     

Occupation and the journey-to-work: Some further analysis

This paper examines the impact of occupation upon commuting distances in the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (CMA). Specifically, from the residential and job location patterns of each occupational group a “minimum distance” indicator of the degree of job-residence access of each occupational group is developed with the aid of a linear programming transportation model. The differences in “minimum distance” that must be travelled by the members of each occupational group are explained. The actual distances travelled to work by the members of each occupational group are then investigated and attempts are made to separate the determinants of each occupational group's average journey-to-work distance into two main factors—job residence access and propensity to commute. On the basis of the locational patterns, the analysis suggests that job residence access was generally greater for blue-collar workers than for white-collar workers. Although occupation did have an impact, then, on journey-to-work distance through its influence upon locational patterns of job and residence, little evidence of its effect on the propensity to commute was found. Rather, the results suggest that the main determinant of this factor was sex since female workers exhibited a far lower disposition to commute than did their male counterparts.     

220kV输变电线路OPPC设计和应用

文章主要介绍了OPPC220kV输变电线路的设计和应用研究。随着OPPC设计、产品和工程技术的不断成熟,OP-PC在智能电网的发展中将发挥重要的作用。     

浅谈输电线路防雷接地设计与维护策略

为了避免输电线路遭受雷击而危害输电线路安全可靠运行,需设计合理的防雷接地装置,同时要加强对线路的运行维护管理。文章重点分析了输电线路的防雷接地设计与维护的相关问题。     

轿车输送线自动转接对中机构的规划设计与应用

由于汽车大规模生产工艺的需要,汽车生产需要多种形式的机运输送系统,如推杆悬链、滚动板链、滑动板链、摩擦线、滑撬线等。因此,这些机运输送系统间的自动转接准确率问题,成为许多整车工厂在规划选型和应用中面临的一大难题。文章以总装机运转接的一种方式为例,浅谈自动转接对中机构的规划设计和实际应用。     

On randomization, modeling and experimental design: some remarks on a paper by De Vos

De Vos (1991) claims to have discovered a new example from agricultural field experimentation which shows that a simple robust spatial model may lead to inference and systematic experimental design that outperforms the inference from randomized experiments by far. In this reaction it is shown that: (1) the example is not new; (2) the gains in efficiency are exaggerated due to comparison with an inefficient randomization method; (3) the paper is over-optimistic with respect to robustness of model-based methods and throws unjustified doubts on the validity of randomization methods; (4) the choice between randomization methods and model-based methods depends on the relative importance attached to efficiency and validity.     

基于单片机的接触网激光测距系统的研究与设计

文章基于单片机控制的接触网激光测距系统设计,利用软硬件结合实现对激光测距仪工作状态的手动调试、自动测试及计算。单片机来控制激光测距传感器与角度传感器的采样,并将采样数据自动计算并经由显示告知测试者的一种精度准确、携带方便的接触网几何参数检测系统。基于单片机控制的接触网激光测距仪,具有自动化程度高、成本低、保护完备、控制精度高、携带方便等优点。     

Stochastic volatility with leverage: Fast and efficient likelihood inference

This paper is concerned with the Bayesian analysis of stochastic volatility (SV) models with leverage. Specifically, the paper shows how the often used Kim et al. [1998. Stochastic volatility: likelihood inference and comparison with ARCH models. Review of Economic Studies 65, 361–393] method that was developed for SV models without leverage can be extended to models with leverage. The approach relies on the novel idea of approximating the joint distribution of the outcome and volatility innovations by a suitably constructed ten-component mixture of bivariate normal distributions. The resulting posterior distribution is summarized by MCMC methods and the small approximation error in working with the mixture approximation is corrected by a reweighting procedure. The overall procedure is fast and highly efficient. We illustrate the ideas on daily returns of the Tokyo Stock Price Index. Finally, extensions of the method are described for superposition models (where the log-volatility is made up of a linear combination of heterogenous and independent autoregressions) and heavy-tailed error distributions (student and log-normal).     

Planning for capacity expansion: Stochastic process and game-theoretic approaches

Under- and over-capacity design is a major consideration in public infrastructure systems. Traditional engineering economies of scale leading to overdesign errors must be counterbalanced by greater attention to high cost financing. Increased uncertainty in demand forecasting and financial markets make decision tools which incorporate measures of information imperfection more appropriate. These tools, however, do not lead to consistent identification of optimal design levels.     

Notes and Comments: Stochastic demand correspondences and their aggregation properties

Abstract Mathematics Subject Classification (2000): 91B06, 91B16 Journal of Economic Literature Classification: D11     

Customer satisfaction and service domains: a further development of PROSERV

Quality & Quantity - This paper aims to represent that levels of customer satisfaction of tourist accommodation are an important prerequisite when the goal is building a loyal relationship with...