An unobserved component model for multi-rate forecasting of telephone call demand: the design of a forecasting support system

An Unobserved Components (UC) Model based on an enhanced version of the Dynamic Harmonic Regression model, including new multi-rate and modulated cycle procedures, is used to develop a customised package for forecasting and signal extraction applied to hourly telephone call numbers made to Barclaycard plc. service centres, with a forecasting horizon of up to several weeks in advance. The paper outlines both the methodological and algorithmic aspects of the modelling, forecasting and signal extraction procedures, including the design and implementation of forecasting support software with a specially designed Graphical User Interface within the ^® computing environment. The forecasting performance is evaluated comprehensively in comparison with the well-known seasonal ARIMA approach.     

Learning curves in collaborative planning,forecasting, and replenishment (CPFR) information systems: An empirical analysis from a mobile phone manufacturer

While Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment (CPFR) information systems have been increasingly deployed to improve supply chain operations in a cross section of industries, the extant literature has largely overlooked the learning effects within organizations, thereby resulting in incomplete assessment of their business value. Using an operational-level panel data for nine product lines over 2.5 years, we empirically examine the learning curves in CPFR between Motorola, a mobile phone manufacturer, and one of its U.S.-based national retail partners. We found that the two key components of CPFR, collaborative forecasting (CF) and collaborative replenishment (CR), exhibit distinct learning curves. Forecast accuracy improves immediately following CPFR implementation but the rate of improvement slows over time, whereas inventory levels increase at first and begin decreasing after a period. Further, we found different learning effects in terms of inventory levels when products are later replaced with new form factors. Product replacements have lower inventory levels than their antecedents, at least for low-end products. We discuss important implications for theory and practice at the interface of information systems and operations management.     

Human resource management in the Spanish call centre sector: the bird cage model of call centre work

This paper examines the nature of human resource management (HRM) in call centres in Spain. After reviewing the institutional perspective and other previous contributions to the characterisation of HRM practices in call centres, the authors present evidence of the use of high commitment working practices (HCWP) in this sector. The findings report only a moderate presence of HCWP in the sector generally, but the analysis points towards the existence of four significant and distinct clusters of HRM practices. The results also show categorical evidence that work discretion is almost non-existent across all of the clusters, even in those with more evolved high commitment practices. This lack of autonomy, as well as an intensive use of performance monitoring systems, leads us to model the results in a bird–cage analogy.     

应急物流系列讲座之(5)应急物资储备系统建设

应急物资是应对突发公共事件的重要保障.<突发事件应对法>中规定.国家建立健全应急物资储备保障制度.     

世纪蓝天的呼唤--民航安全管理体系和管理模式探索之二

中国加入世贸组织后,作为经济发展“晴雨表”的民航,早已感到隆隆在耳接轨战鼓的强烈震撼,以及对航空安全迫于眉睫、刻不容缓的严峻挑战!那么,中国民航安全管理体系与管理模式,该以怎样的自身特色经受既脱胎换骨又不失本色的世纪洗礼呢?这的确是一个鲜活而又凝重的课题。基于对航空安全极端重要性的深层次思考,鉴于“忠诚”精神教育,实际上     

The relationship of personality to counterproductive work behavior (CWB): An integration of perspectives

The workplace literature relating personality to CWB is integrated with complimentary literatures from other disciplines including developmental and social psychology. The literature is reviewed showing how both broad-based personality dimensions reflected in integrity tests and measures of the five factor model, and specific personality traits relate to counterproductive work behavior (CWB). A model is developed showing how different personality variables shown to relate to aggression and/or (CWB) might affect different steps in the process linking behavior to precipitating environmental conditions or events. Specifically Hostile Attribution Bias and Narcissism are most relevant to appraisal and attributions, Negative Affectivity and Trait Anger connect to negative emotions, and Locus of Control and Self-Control are thought to play a CWB inhibiting role. Distinctions among reactive, proactive, and relational aggression are extended to CWB.     

Withdrawal behavior and withholding efforts at work (WBWEW): Assessing the financial cost

In the continuing effort to confront the loss of profitability to industry as a result of withdrawal behavior and withholding efforts at work, this article presents an advanced and improved formula for estimating both the direct and indirect costs to a company resulting from this errant behavior. The emphasis is on a quantitative approach that incorporates the added value of forgone revenue rather than merely the cost of payments to the absentees as in earlier quantifications.