首家资金互助社两周年回顾

为解决农村地区银行业金融机构网点覆盖率低、竞争不充分、农民贷款难等问题,2006年,银监会调整放宽农村地区银行业金融机构准入政策,引导各类资本到农村地区投资设立新型农村金融机构。紧接着2007年,银监会出台了《农村资金互助社管理暂行规定》和《农村资金互助社示范章程》,这为资金互助     

美国晨星公司基金评级体系借鉴

截至2001年12月底，我国已设立48只封闭式基金，3只开放式基金，占沪、深两市流通总市值的比例为5.6％。随着我国基金业的迅猛发展，尤其是开放式基金的不断设立，如何准确、合理地对基金进行评级，成为摆在我们面前一个亟待解决的课题。……     

The Effects of Advertising on Mutual Fund Flows: Results from a New Database

We examine 471,000 mutual fund company advertisements from 1997 to 2003 to study advertising's effect on fund inflows. We find advertising is generally ineffective in attracting inflows but was more effective during the bear market despite smaller advertising expenditures during this time. The top 10 advertisers in our sample were most successful in capturing inflows. These companies generated inflows with mutual fund ads; other companies succeeded when advertising their other products and their brand image. Within a fund family, advertising affects the flagship fund differently than the other funds. Sample firms appeared unable to choose correctly between print and TV ads.     

Mutual Fund Family Size and Mutual Fund Performance: The Role of Regulatory Changes

We examine whether the previously documented positive association between fund family size and fund performance is affected by significant regulatory changes (i.e., Regulation Fair Disclosure (Reg FD), the Global Settlement (GS), and increased scrutiny as a result of trading scandals) that have occurred in the last decade. Using Reg FD as a beginning point for these structural changes, we find that, while fund family size was positively associated with fund performance in the period prior to the regulatory changes, this advantage is significantly weaker in the period subsequent to the regulatory changes. Consistent with the weakened advantage of fund family size in fund performance, we find that the greater stock‐picking skill of larger fund families, measured using the earnings announcement returns of the stocks they trade, also weakened subsequent to the regulatory changes. Using narrower event windows around the regulatory changes, we find that the previously documented superior return of large fund families was partly attributable to selective disclosure. We also find that fund families implicated in the trading scandals experienced a decline in their performance during the scandal period. Finally, we examine the role of large investment banks in providing an advantage to large fund families. Family size was positively associated with the extent to which funds traded in the same direction as forecast revisions by analysts from large investment banks in the period prior to Reg FD and the GS and this association declined significantly after the two regulatory events.     

Estimating the Dynamics of Mutual Fund Alphas and Betas

This article develops a Kalman filter model to track dynamicmutual fund factor loadings. It then uses the estimates to analyzewhether managers with market-timing ability can be identifiedex ante. The primary findings are as follows: (i) Ordinary leastsquares (OLS) timing models produce false positives (nonzeroalphas) at too high a rate with either daily or monthly data.In contrast, the Kalman filter model produces them at approximatelythe correct rate with monthly data; (ii) In monthly data, thoughthe OLS models fail to detect any timing among fund managers,the Kalman filter does; (iii) The alpha and beta forecasts fromthe Kalman model are more accurate than those from the OLS timingmodels; (iv) The Kalman filter model tracks most fund alphasand betas better than OLS models that employ macroeconomic variablesin addition to fund returns.     

On the Timing Ability of Mutual Fund Managers

Existing studies of mutual fund market timing analyze monthly returns and find little evidence of timing ability. We show that daily tests are more powerful and that mutual funds exhibit significant timing ability more often in daily tests than in monthly tests. We construct a set of synthetic fund returns in order to control for spurious results. The daily timing coefficients of the majority of funds are significantly different from their synthetic counterparts. These results suggest that mutual funds may possess more timing ability than previously documented.     

Mutual Fund Herding and the Impact on Stock Prices

We analyze the trading activity of the mutual fund industry from 1975 through 1994 to determine whether funds "herd" when they trade stocks and to investigate the impact of herding on stock prices. Although we find little herding by mutual funds in the average stock, we find much higher levels in trades of small stocks and in trading by growth-oriented funds. Stocks that herds buy outperform stocks that they sell by 4 percent during the following six months; this return difference is much more pronounced among small stocks. Our results are consistent with mutual fund herding speeding the price-adjustment process.     

Improved Forecasting of Mutual Fund Alphas and Betas

This paper proposes a simple back testing procedure that isshown to dramatically improve a panel data model's ability toproduce out of sample forecasts. Here the procedure is usedto forecast mutual fund alphas. Using monthly data with an OLSmodel it has been difficult to consistently predict which portfoliomanagers will produce above market returns for their investors.This paper provides empirical evidence that sorting on the estimatedalphas populates the top and bottom deciles not with the bestand worst funds, but with those having the greatest estimationerror. This problem can be attenuated by back testing the statisticalmodel fund by fund. The back test used here requires a statisticalmodel to exhibit some past predictive success for a particularfund before it is allowed to make predictions about that fundin the current period. Another estimation problem concerns theuse of a single statistical model for all available mutual funds.Since no one statistical model is likely to fit every fund,the result is a great deal of misspecification error. This papershows that the combined use of an OLS and Kalman filter modelincreases the number of funds with predictable out of samplealphas by about 60%. Overall, a strategy that uses very modestex-ante filters to eliminate funds whose parameters likely deriveprimarily from estimation error produces an out of sample risk-adjustedreturn of over 4% per annum.     

投资者保护和基金投资业绩

本文从基金持仓股特征出发,研究了上市公司投资者保护与基金投资业绩的关系。由于投资者保护影响公司的盈利能力以及投资者获取信息的难易程度,基金在投资时更加偏好于投资者保护好的上市公司的股票。使用我国上市公司基金持股比例的数据,本文证实了这一结论。更为重要的是,本文发现对于有能力的基金,他们会投资于投资者保护比较差的上市公司的股票,从而获得更高的投资业绩。     

公司型基金:中国基金业发展的战略选择

公司型基金现已成为世界基金组织模式的主流形式，而我国到目前为止全是单一的契约型基金。相对于契约型基金的固有缺陷而言，公司型基金有契约型基金无可比拟的制度优势。基于此，公司型基金应该成为我国未来基金业发展的主要政策取向。为此，必须在法律上明确界定公司型基金的法律性质以及处理好公司型基金与契约型基金的税负均衡问题。     

特定客户资产管理业务对传统公募基金影响分析

本文结合特定客户资产管理业务和传统公募基金在盈利模式等方面存在的较大差异,分析了基金专户理财业务的开展对传统基金业带来的冲击和挑战。笔者认为,管理层应借鉴海外市场专户成功运作经验,进一步细化专户业务监管,严格分离专户业务和公募基金,保持公募基金管理和专户投资的独立运作,从而减少专户业务对传统基金管理的不利影响。     

基于持股信息的基金业绩评价研究综述

当前的研究表明,不论从经济意义还是统计意义上来看,基于持股数据的基金业绩评价方法能够提高研究结论的准确性,但应注意该方法也具有一定的缺陷,应采用多种方法对基金业绩进行评测与比较,方可得出科学的结论。     

美国共同基金费率体系设计的趋势研究

本文在InvestmentCompanyInstitute(ICI)各年有关基金费率的报告基础上,从费率的基本结构、费率水平以及费率设计的创新趋势三方面总结了美国共同基金自1980年以来在费率方面的变化:由单一前端费用为主,转向灵活调整、适应投资者多样化需求的费率结构和费率水平体系。     

村级发展互助资金组织效率及其影响因素分析

基于5省15个县160个样本村的调研数据,本文采用DEA和Tobit模型考察村级发展互助资金组织的运行效率及其影响因素。作为村级发展互助资金组织的重要制度内容,成员入股、民主管理、微型金融运营方式和政府支持在影响因素分析中被给予了足够重视。研究发现:(1)样本村级发展互助资金组织技术效率普遍不高,且省际差异较大,纯技术效率大于规模效率,规模效率偏低是导致技术效率不高的原因;(2)理事会成员入股比例对组织效率起到关键性作用。(3)灵活的还款制度以及小额贷款能够有效提高互助资金组织效率。(4)政府增股配股政策具有改善组织效率的作用。     

我国基金资产净值估值方法探讨

基金资产净值是投资者可以得到的关于基金资产实际价值的主要公开信息，而且投资者通常都将基金资产净值视为基金资产的实际价值，因此应将尽可能地真实反映基金资产实际价值作为计算基金资产净值时选择证券价格的主要原则。……     

中国开放式基金赎回影响因素研究

通过对中国29只偏股型开放式基金的面板数据分析,本文研究发现基金的赎回与股票市场行情、基金的规模、基金单位累计净值与净值增长率有关.其中与国外成熟市场不同的是,中国开放式基金的赎回与基金业绩成正相关,即业绩好的基金面临的赎回压力也大.本文分析了此异常现象的原因,并针对基金赎回、维护基金投资者的利益提出了建议.     

投资基金的虚拟资本性质研究

虚拟资本的概念源自于马克思，它有动员储蓄、优化资源配置、实施企业监管、便于风险管理以及促进商品和服务贸易的功能，有助于研究金融市场。本文探讨投资基金的虚拟资本的性质。投资基金自产生时就有乘数效应。投资基金的操作、定价、风险配置机制具有全部的虚拟资本的特点。本文指出投资基金市场的一些缺陷。     

The Relation between Price and Performance in the Mutual Fund Industry

Gruber (1996) drew attention to the puzzle that investors buy actively managed equity mutual funds, even though on average such funds underperform index funds. We uncover another puzzling fact about the market for equity mutual funds: Funds with worse before-fee performance charge higher fees. This negative relation between fees and performance is robust and can be explained as the outcome of strategic fee-setting by mutual funds in the presence of investors with different degrees of sensitivity to performance. We also find some evidence that better fund governance may bring fees more in line with performance.