Technical change and total factor productivity growth: The case of Chinese provinces

In the literature technical change (TC) is mostly assumed to be exogenous and specified as a function of the time trend or time dummies. However, some exogenous external factors other than time can also affect TC. In this paper we model TC via time trend (external non-economic) as well as other exogenous (external economic) factors (technology shifters). For this we define technology indices based on the external economic factors and the time trend. The specification of production function is then amended to accommodate these technology indices which are not necessarily separable from the traditional inputs. That is, these technology indices allow for non-neutral shift in the production function. In doing so we are able to decompose TC (a component of TFP change) into two parts. One part is driven by time and the other part is related to producer-specific external economic factors. The latter can further be decomposed into each external economic factors. The empirical model uses panel data on Chinese provinces. We identify a number of key technology shifters and their effect on technical change and TFP growth of provinces are examined.     

Returns to scale: concept,estimation and analysis of Japan's turbulent 1964–88 economy

Abstract There is policy interest in factoring productivity growth into technical progress and returns to scale components. Our approach uses exact index number methods to reduce the parameters that must be estimated, and allows us to exploit the cross‐sectional dimension of plant‐level panel data. We show that the same equation can also be used to estimate ‘Harberger’ scale economies and technical progress indicators that require fewer assumptions. Estimates of the elasticity of scale for Japanese establishments in three major industries over 1964–88 are presented. Our study spans the high growth era of the 1960s, two oil shocks, and other exogenous shocks.     

The Value of Peripatetic Economists: A Sesqui-Difference Evaluation of Bob Gregory

Does a country benefit from temporarily importing human capital? Do foreign academic visitors generate additional scholarly research on local issues? I use a survey in which visitors to ANU's Economics Program described their research before and after their visit and designated an otherwise similar non-visitor as a control. Matching to controls may thus be along observable and unobservable characteristics. These visits have a highly significant impact on the visitor's subsequent research, redirecting it toward Australia. Valuing this extra research based on scholarly citations received and the effects of citations on salaries shows substantial monetary gains.     

Socially excessive dissemination of patent licences

Abstract .  Compared with the social optimum, a monopolist usually sells too little. This result seemingly includes the case of a lab that licences its patented cost innovation: Katz and Shapiro (1986) find 'conditions under which [the lab] will issue fewer than the socially optimal number of licences.' However, I find instead that its incentives can be socially too high; the monopoly seller may sell too much. For example, it can be profit maximizing to sell several licences, while it is socially optimal that none is sold.     

Political versus economic institutions in the growth process

After a decade of research on the relationship between institutions and growth, there is no consensus about the exact way in which these two variables interact. In this paper we re-examine the role that institutions play in the growth process using data for developed and developing economies over the period 1975–2005. Our results indicate that the data is best described by an econometric model with two growth regimes. Political institutions are the key determinant of which regime an economy belongs to, while economic institutions have a direct impact on growth rates within each regime. These findings support the hypothesis that political institutions are one of the deep causes of growth, setting the stage in which economic institutions and standard covariates operate.     

The Financial Sector and Economic Growth*

The Mankiw–Romer–Weil (1992) augmented Solow–Swan ( Solow 1956 ; Swan 1956 ) model is extended to incorporate the financial sector in this study. Distinguishing between financial capital, physical capital and human capital, the research attempts to identify, in particular, the effects of financial capital on economic growth. The effects of financial sector efficiency on economic growth are also examined. The financial sector augmented model is tested on a cross‐section of 35 economies. Strong support is found for the model.     

International R&D spillovers and institutions

The empirical analysis in “International R&D Spillovers” [Coe, D., Helpman, E., 1995. International R&D Spillovers. European Economic Review, 39, 859-887] is first revisited on an expanded data set that we have constructed for the purpose of this study. The new estimates confirm the key results reported in Coe and Helpman about the impact of domestic and foreign R&D capital stocks on TFP. In addition, we show that domestic and foreign R&D capital stocks have measurable impacts on TFP even after controlling for the impact of human capital. Furthermore, we extend the analysis to include institutional variables. Our results suggest that institutional differences are important determinants of TFP and that they impact the degree of R&D spillovers. Countries where the ease of doing business and the quality of tertiary education systems are relatively high tend to benefit more from their own R&D efforts, from international R&D spillovers, and from human capital formation. Strong patent protection is associated with higher levels of total factor productivity, higher returns to domestic R&D, and larger international R&D spillovers. Finally, countries whose legal systems are based on French and, to a lesser extent, Scandinavian law benefit less from their own and foreign R&D capital than countries whose legal origins are based on English or German law.     

VENTURE CAPITAL AND INNOVATION: WHICH IS FIRST?

Policy‐makers typically interpret positive relations between venture capital (VC) investments and innovations as evidence that VC investments stimulate innovation (VC‐first hypothesis). This interpretation is, however, one‐sided because there may be a reverse causality that innovations induce VC investments (innovation‐first hypothesis): an arrival of new technology increases demand for VC. We analyze this causality issue of VC and innovation in the US manufacturing industry using both total factor productivity growth and patent counts as measures of innovation. We find that, consistent with the innovation‐first hypothesis, total factor productivity growth is often positively and significantly related with future VC investment. We find little evidence that supports the VC‐first hypothesis.     

Sources of TFP growth: occupational choice and financial deepening

This paper explains and measures the sources of total factor productivity (TFP) by developing a method of growth accounting based on an integrated use of transitional growth models and micro data. We decompose TFP growth into the occupational-shift effect, financial-deepening effect, capital-heterogeneity effect, and sectoral-Solow-residuals. Applying this method to Thailand, which experienced rapid growth with enormous structural changes between 1976 and 1996, we find that 73% of TFP growth is explained by occupational shifts and financial deepening, without presuming exogenous technical progress. Expansion of credit is a major part. We also show the role of endogenous interaction between factor price dynamics and the wealth distribution for TFP. We thank Richard Rogerson for his clarifying and helpful discussion. The comments from the participants of the Minnesota Workshop in Macroeconomic Theory 2004, Stanford Institute for Theoretical Economics (SITE) Summer Workshop 2004, European Meeting and North American Summer Meeting of the Econometric Society 2004, NEUDC 2004, Iowa Conference of Economic Development, and seminars at USC Marshall School, Penn State University, UCLA, and UCSD are also appreciated. Financial support from NSF (SES-0318340) and NICHD (R01 HD27638) is gratefully acknowledged.     

The role of the government in financial sector development

This study examines the impact of two dimensions of the government, namely, size and quality, on two dimensions of the financial sector, size and efficiency, in a cross section of 71 economies. The study finds that increased quality of the government as measured by governance and legal origin positively influences both financial sector size and efficiency. The size of the government proxied by government expenditure and the government ownership of banks has a negative effect on financial sector efficiency, and a positive impact on financial sector size, particularly in the low income economies.     

The Luenberger productivity indicator: An economic specification leading to infeasibilities

This contribution points out an error in the specification of technology when computing the Luenberger productivity indicator that has been hitherto ignored in the literature. The solution of this problem increases the likelihood that the directional distance functions underlying this productivity indicator are ill-defined.     

Reference technology sets,Free Disposal Hulls and productivity decompositions

Diewert and Fox (2013) proposed decompositions of a Malmquist-type productivity index into explanatory factors, with a focus on extracting technical progress, technical efficiency change and returns to scale components. A major problem with their decompositions is that it may be difficult to determine the appropriate reference technologies. Using relatively unrestrictive regularity conditions, the paper develops a data envelopment type approach for decomposing productivity growth for a panel of production units into explanatory factors based on the Free Disposal Hull methods pioneered by Tulkens and his co-authors.     

The effects of economic reforms on manufacturing dualism: Evidence from India

Dualism is a pervasive feature of the manufacturing sectors of less-developed countries, with large differences in productivity between the informal and the formal sectors. Policy distortions are viewed as an important factor behind the prevalence of manufacturing dualism. We examine whether tariff reforms, industrial de-licensing and the withdrawal of reservation of products for small firms implemented since the mid-1980s have had any effects on efficiency differentials between informal and formal firms in Indian manufacturing. We find strong evidence that economic reforms have exacerbated dualism by increasing the productivity differentials between the more efficient formal firms and the less efficient informal firms.     

The pattern of specialization and economic growth: The resource curse hypothesis revisited

This paper explores the relation between countries’ pattern of trade specialization and long-term economic growth. It shows that countries specializing in the export of natural resource based products only fail to grow if they do not succeed in diversifying their economies and export structure. This conclusion follows from an empirical investigation that has three innovative features. First, it uses a dynamic panel data analysis. Secondly, it employs disaggregated trade data sets to elaborate different measures of trade specialization that distinguish between unprocessed and manufactured natural resource products and are informative about the countries’ trade diversification experience, their link to world demand trends and involvement in intra-industry trade. The final innovative aspect of the paper relates to our empirical findings: it is only specialization in unprocessed natural resource products that slows down economic growth, as it impedes the emergence of more dynamic patterns of trade specialization.     

Does trust promote growth?

We examine the effect of generalized trust on long-term economic growth. Unlike in previous studies, we use Bayesian model averaging to deal rigorously with model uncertainty and attendant omitted variable bias. In addition, we address endogeneity and assess whether the effect of trust on growth is causal. Examining more than forty regressors for nearly fifty countries, we show that trust exerts a positive effect on long-term growth and, based on the posterior inclusion probabilities, suggest that trust is an important driver of long-term growth. Our results also show that trust is key for growth in countries with a weak rule of law.     

Institutions and growth in limited access societies

We build a dynamic political economy model with a two-class society, workers and the elite, in which the elite formation, the innovation rate and fiscal policy are endogenous. The model generates a mapping between institutions and patterns of growth consistent with empirical evidence. Ex ante, when facing constraints in choosing institutions, the elite may delegate policy control to some of its members, even though such delegation exacerbates the conflict within the elite and causes policy failures. Committing to such institutional arrangements prevents more harmful outcomes, such as rapid entry and subsequent deterioration of the elite?s economic and political power.     

Foreign direct investment,economic freedom and economic growth: International evidence

In this paper, we investigate the systemic link between economic freedom, foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in a panel of 85 countries. Our empirical results, based on the generalized method-of-moment system estimator, reveal that FDI by itself has no direct (positive) effect on output growth. Instead, the effect of FDI is contingent on the level of economic freedom in the host countries. This means the countries promote greater freedom of economic activities gain significantly from the presence of multinational corporations (MNCs).     

Barriers to entry, deregulation and workplace training: A theoretical model with evidence from Europe

We study the impact of regulatory barriers to entry on workplace training. We develop a model of training in imperfectly competitive product and labour markets. The model indicates that there are two contrasting effects of deregulation on training. As stressed in the literature, with a given number of firms, deregulation reduces the size of rents per unit of output that firms can reap by training their employees. Yet, the number of firms increases following deregulation, thereby raising output and profit gains from training and improving investment incentives. The latter effect prevails. In line with the predictions of the theoretical model, we find that the substantial deregulation in the 1990s of heavily regulated European industries (energy, transport and communication) increased training incidence.