Job market outcomes for IDPs: The case of Georgia

Internally displaced people (IDPs) constitute a serious economic, social and cultural problem for many countries, including countries in transition. Despite the importance of the problem, there are only a handful of previous studies investigating the issue of labour market outcomes for IDPs. Moreover, the impact of protracted displacement has not been addressed in academic work at all. We aim to fill this gap in the literature using 13 years (2004–2016) of Integrated Household Surveys from Georgia, which has experienced a large flow of internal migrants from the early 1990s until now. Our analyses indicate that the labour market outcomes for IDPs are much worse than those for local residents. Specifically, IDPs are 3.9–11.2 percentage points less likely to be in the labour force, depending on the period and duration of IDP status. IDPs are also up to 11.6 percentage points more likely to be unemployed, even after 20 years of forced displacement. Finally, IDPs residing in a locality for more than five years receive persistently lower wages than local residents with similar characteristics, with the gap widening over time, reaching some 11% in the last period under analysis.     

The wage and non-wage costs of displacement in boom times: Evidence from Russia

This paper analyzes the costs of job loss over the years of a booming economy, 2003–2008, using unique data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey. In addition to analyzing standard labor market outcomes, such as forgone earnings, employment, hours worked and wage penalties, our unique data set allows us to investigate additional non-wage costs of displacement, in particular, fringe benefits, the propensity to have an informal employment relationship or a temporary contract. We find that displaced individuals face large foregone earnings following displacement, which are heterogeneous across education and ownership type of firm from which the worker separated. There is no evidence of wage penalties for re-employed displaced workers. However, we find an increased probability of working in informal or temporary jobs if previously displaced and a reduction in the number of benefits.     

Worker displacement during the transition: Experience from Slovenia1

The Slovenian transition created labor displacements that were bigger than those experienced in North America in the 1980s. In Slovenia, probability of both layoffs and quits fell with worker tenure, firm profitability and expected severance costs. Individuals facing a higher probability of displacement accepted slower wage growth than otherwise comparable workers. The incentives to avoid displacement were strong – workers that actually were displaced faced a slow process of transiting out of unemployment with only one‐third finding re‐employment. Correcting for selection, real wage losses for displaced workers are comparable to those reported for displaced workers in North America.     

International trade,job training,and labor reallocation

A large literature studies the impact of increased import competition on workers' outcomes, however, relatively few studies examine which policies can aid workers displaced by trade. In this article, we evaluate the impact of an industrial job training program in Brazil on workers displaced from manufacturing sectors. We find that industrial training increases the probability of re-entry into the formal labor market 1 year after displacement by about 17 percentage points and is even more effective for workers displaced from sectors exposed to high import competition. This effect is mainly associated with workers switching sectors and occupations after training.     

AIDS mortality and its effect on the labor market: Evidence from South Africa

This paper investigates how HIV/AIDS has impacted the labor market in South Africa, focusing on its effect on wages and employment. This is done by matching individual level data with group specific cumulative AIDS mortality rates. Exploiting the panel nature of the data, I remove individuals whose productivity is most likely impacted by HIV/AIDS, and find evidence that cumulative AIDS mortality has led to reductions in wages of between 3 and 6% for the African population group (Black South Africans). Furthermore, I also find evidence that the epidemic has lowered employment in South Africa. This result is concentrated among those with the lowest levels of education and employment. Although not large in magnitude, these effects are widespread across a significant portion of the population, contributing to a substantial loss of income throughout the South African economy.     

Land tenure and investment incentives: Evidence from West Africa

The existing literature on the relationship between property rights in land and agricultural investment in Africa has given results that are often confusing and contradictory. I make two clarifying contributions to this literature. First, I pull together existing studies and investigate whether the results they find have been affected by research methods or local contexts. Studies with small sample sizes, those that use binary investment measures, and those that control for household fixed effects are less likely to find a statistically significant link between land tenure and investment. Self-reported tenure security has been a poor predictor of investment outcomes. Second, I test for a relationship between land tenure and agricultural investment in nine data sets from West Africa. While the link between tenure and investment is significant for fallow and tree planting, it is less robust for labor use and other inputs, such as manure or chemical fertilizer.     

“Restrict foreigners,not robots”: Partisan responses to automation threat

Recent scholarship on technological change highlights its negative impacts on employment and wages. However, a decade of nationally representative surveys show that Americans hold favorable views toward technology despite concerns over labor displacement. How do people cope with employment threats from a trend they consider desirable? Using a survey experiment, this paper argues that people opt to buffer domestic workers from technological threats with substitute policies against outgroups that they believe could improve wages and employment prospects. Specifically, direct cues about technological displacement make Republicans more likely to demand tighter restrictions on immigration and Democrats more likely to support higher tariffs. In other words, citizens respond to automation anxiety by blaming and penalizing groups that they consider unwelcome or objectionable, depending on their partisanship. Respondents remained reluctant to express support for technological restrictions. Thus, automation anxiety may intensify resistance to globalization, but not necessarily technology.     

HEALTH INSURANCE COVERAGE AND REEMPLOYMENT OUTCOMES AMONG OLDER DISPLACED WORKERS

This article investigates the relationship between health insurance coverage and employment behavior among older workers with an involuntary job loss. It finds that various sources of health insurance are available to mitigate the circumstances where employer-sponsored health insurance is terminated when older workers lose jobs involuntarily. However, older displaced workers remain less likely to be insured than comparable nondisplaced workers by 7.6 percentage points one year after the job loss. The analysis also reveals that having secure health coverage before job displacement is associated with lower probabilities of reemployment and longer postdisplacement nonemployment spells. (JEL I12 , J32 , J63 , J14 )     

An Efficiency Enhancing Minimum Wage

We consider an economy with a tax on all labor earnings. We discover that a slightly binding minimum wage on one sector can enhance efficiency. The minimum wage attracts high‐reservation wage workers into the minimum‐wage sector. If the labor demand curve in the free sector is quite flat, the vast majority of workers displaced by the minimum wage find employment in the free sector, raising aggregate employment. This displacement of workers by the only slightly binding minimum wage has negligible effects on efficiency. So efficiency and tax revenue rise as the minimum wage pulls labor out of untaxed leisure, where too much of the labor force is lurking, into taxed work.     

Offshoring and occupational specificity of human capital

I document that workers in newly tradable service occupations possess more occupation-specific human capital and are more highly educated than workers in previously tradable occupations. Motivated by this observation, I develop a dynamic equilibrium model with labor market frictions and specific human capital to study the labor adjustment process after a trade shock. When calibrated to match the increase in U.S. trade between 1990 and 2010, the model suggests that (1) output increases immediately after a trade shock and converges quickly to the steady state; (2) labor market institutions likely play a larger role in the adjustment process than specific human capital; (3) the short run distributional effects are small if the labor market is flexible, even in the presence of specific human capital.     

Sharing oil rents and political violence

This paper investigates how the devolution of oil windfalls affects the likelihood of political violence. It shows that transferring large shares of oil wealth can prevent conflict, while transferring small shares can trigger it. Among the different transfer schemes, fiscal transfers (to subnational governments) yield the highest levels of consumption, but direct transfers (to people) are the most effective in preventing conflict. By averting conflict, transfers can improve ex ante welfare; however, only a subset of the ex ante welfare optimal transfers is optimal ex post and thus self-enforcing. Among them, those that avert conflict by reinforcing repressive regimes are of particular policy interest.     

Ethnic divisions,contract choice,and search costs in the Guatemalan land rental market

This paper shows how ethnic diversity in a context of weak property rights enforcement can result in market segmentation. The paper analyzes how contract enforcement problems affect the joint decision of partner and contract choice by landlords in the land rental market in Guatemala. The empirical method allows partner choice to be determined not only by the characteristics and relative scarcity of the specific landowner and tenant, but also by the characteristics of other potential tenants. The results show that landowners without formal title are more likely to restrict their partners to tenants from the same ethnic group. Partner choice is found to be less important for renting with interlinked land–labor contracts.     

Transition to market economics: Employment and informal activity in rural areas

According to the neo-liberal model, the high levels of unemployment and collapsing real wages of transition will reallocate labor to new activities. But whether and how households actually reallocate labor is the subject of growing debate. We use survey data from Bulgaria to develop a typology of rural households based on their labor allocation characteristics. We find a diversity of outcomes. A significant share of households experience no change in labor allocation, some shift labor to own commercial enterprises, but a significant minority are displaced from the emerging market economy. Potential for informal activity among these households appears limited. Of great concern is the regional concentration of such households.     

Transition to market economics: Employment and informal activity in rural areas

According to the neo-liberal model, the high levels of unemployment and collapsing real wages of transition will reallocate labor to new activities. But whether and how households actually reallocate labor is the subject of growing debate. We use survey data from Bulgaria to develop a typology of rural households based on their labor allocation characteristics. We find a diversity of outcomes. A significant share of households experience no change in labor allocation, some shift labor to own commercial enterprises, but a significant minority are displaced from the emerging market economy. Potential for informal activity among these households appears limited. Of great concern is the regional concentration of such households.     

Corporate taxes, growth and welfare in a Schumpeterian economy

I take a new look at the long-run implications of taxation through the lens of modern Schumpeterian growth theory. I focus on the latest vintage of models that sterilize the scale effect through a process of product proliferation that fragments the aggregate market into submarkets whose size does not increase with the size of the workforce. I show that the following interventions raise welfare: (a) granting full expensibility of R&D to incorporated firms; (b) eliminating the corporate income tax and/or the capital gains tax; (c) reducing taxes on labor and/or consumption. What makes these results remarkable is that in all three cases the endogenous increase in the tax on dividends necessary to balance the budget has a positive effect on growth. A general implication of my analysis is that corporate taxation plays a special role in Schumpeterian economies and provides novel insights on how to design welfare-enhancing tax reforms.     

Spousal Violence and Women's Employment in India

This study analyzes women's experiences of physical or sexual spousal violence as a correlate of their employment. Based on the 2005–6 National Family Health Survey III, a nationally representative dataset from India, the analysis illustrates that married women who experienced spousal violence are more likely to be employed and are also more likely to work for cash remuneration and be employed year-round. These results may appear to suggest that spousal violence is associated with higher likelihood of married women seeking financial self-reliance. However, investigation of who decides how to spend women's earnings reveals that Indian women who experienced spousal violence are less likely to have a say in that vital decision, which suggests that women who experience spousal violence may also be more susceptible to financial exploitation. The evidence further indicates a need for caution among analyses that uniformly embrace employment as a financial empowerment tool for women.     

Droughts,conflict, and the African slave trade

Historians have frequently suggested that droughts helped facilitate the African slave trade. By introducing a previously unused dataset on 19th century rainfall levels in Africa, I provide the first empirical examination of this hypothesis. I find a strong negative relationship between rainfall shocks and the number of slaves exported from a given region. I also find that extreme temperature shocks in either direction increase slave exports. Building on the detailed qualitative work of Dias (1981), Miller (1982), and others, I provide quantitative evidence for interethnic group conflict and more localized forms of violence being likely mechanisms through which these additional slaves were acquired. These results contribute to our understanding of the underlying economic conditions of the African slave trade.     

Lineage-based heterogeneity and cooperative behavior in rural China

This paper investigates how lineages, the commonly found organizations in rural villages of China, affect people's intra- and cross-lineage cooperative behavior. We use data from the Chinese Household Income Project Survey 2002, which exclusively contains information about the lineage structure in these villages allowing us to classify three levels of lineage-based heterogeneity. Our identification strategy relies on the exogeneity of lineage-based heterogeneity. We find evidence that people in a village with higher lineage-based heterogeneity are less likely to exhibit reciprocity behavior within lineages or contribute to the provision of public goods that are jointly shared across lineages. The estimation results remain robust to the inclusion of various control variables and additional background characteristics. Finally, we examine a number of other economic outcomes and find that more homogenous villages do better than other types of villages.     

Poverty Dynamics,Violent Conflict,and Convergence in Rwanda

This paper analyzes the poverty impact of the violent events that affected Rwanda in the 1990s. The main objective of the paper is to identify systematically potential mechanisms linking violent conflict with changes in poverty across provinces and households in Rwanda before and after a decade of violence. In accordance with emerging literature on the long‐term economic effects of violent conflict, we find empirical evidence for economic convergence between richer and poorer Rwandan provinces and households following the conflict shocks. Using a small but unique panel of households surveyed before and after the conflict period, we find that households whose house was destroyed or who lost land ran a higher risk of falling into poverty. We do not find much evidence for an economic effect of violent deaths at the household level due to substitution effects of labor within the household. Non‐violent deaths however seem to increase income per adult equivalent for the survivors. Results are shown to be robust to sample selection and IV models.     

Child labor,urban proximity,and household composition

Using detailed survey data from Nepal, this paper examines the determinants of child labor with a special emphasis on urban proximity. We find that children residing in or near urban centers attend school more and work less in total but are more likely to be involved in wage work or in a small business. The larger the urban center, the stronger the effect is. Urban proximity is found to reduce the workload of children and improve school attendance up to 3 h of travel time from the city. In areas of commercialized agriculture located 3 to 7 h from the city, children do more farm work. Urban proximity effects are accounted for by a combination of local labor supply and demand conditions, most notably the local importance of agriculture, the education level of the parents, and the local wage rate. Child servants, which represent a small proportion of all children, work much harder than other children and appear particularly at risk.