Child labor and schooling response to changes in coca production in rural Peru

Coca eradication and interdiction are the most common policies aimed at reducing the production and distribution of cocaine in the Andes, but little is know about their impact on households. This paper uses the shift in the production of coca leaves from Peru to Colombia in 1995 to analyze the indirect effects of the anti-coca policy on children's allocation of time. After different sensitivity checks, the results indicate that a decrease in coca production is associated with increases in work and hours children living in coca-growing states devote to work within and outside the household, with no effects on schooling outcomes. These findings suggest a previously undocumented indirect effect of drug policies on household behavior.     

Agricultural subsidy policies fail to deal with child labour under agricultural dualism: What could be the alternative policies?

We provide a theoretical explanation why agricultural subsidy policies are likely to fail to ensure simultaneous eradication of the incidence of child labour and improvement in the well-being of the poor working families in terms of a three-sector general equilibrium model with child labour and agricultural dualism. We identify both demand and supply side effects of any policy intervention on child labour. We also suggest two alternative policies, a scheme of direct cash transfer to poor people and economic growth through foreign direct investment (FDI), both of which would be effective in achieving these twin objectives of a welfare government.     

Coca Substitution and Free Trade in Bolivia: The Pending Crisis

This paper uses the factors proportion model of production and trade with ten inputs to analyze the potential impact of the Free Trade Agreement of the Americas (FTAA) on the coca substitution program in Bolivia. With six crops including coca, the model produces comparative statics elasticities of changing prices on factor prices and output. Results show that the coca substitution program with free trade will result in large income redistribution in the coca‐producing region as a result of increased competition from larger and more efficient economies. Increased subsidies and institutional changes will be needed to sustain the coca substitution program in the long run.     

培育类产业政策对中小企业技术创新的影响

通过手工收集地方政府培育类政策并与2007—2019年中国中小板和创业板上市企业数据进行匹配，利用多期DID模型检验其对中小企业创新的影响。结果表明，培育类政策对中小企业创新起长期显著促进作用，但政府认定次数增加并不能推动中小企业创新由量转质的飞跃。进一步地，培育类政策可通过激发创新意愿、加速人才聚集、提升市场关注度促进中小企业创新。异质性分析表明，该类政策对国有中小企业创新促进作用更为显著，且仅对低集中度行业企业起到促进作用，知识产权保护水平较低地区政策激励与创新补偿效应更强。结论可丰富产业政策对中小企业创新影响的经验证据，为完善扶持中小企业创新政策提供决策参考。     

The 2018 Clarence Ayres Scholar An Institutional Riposte to the “After the Washington Consensus”

The Washington Consensus as conceived in 1989 by John Williamson, the initiator of the term, was the foundation of the mainstream perspective on international development. The Washington Consensus consisted of a set of ten policies to be imposed through conditionality by international financial institutions on distressed developing countries. The vast criticism that ensued brought a set of policies in the form of the After the Washington Consensus (hereafter the AWC) in 2003, which designated a “new” set of policy reforms and conditionalities for developing countries. The aim of this article is to contrast the two sets of controversial policies, the original Washington Consensus and AWC, to an alternative perspective of international development based on an institutionalist approach.     

Optimal detection strategies for an established invasive pest

We model optimal detection of sub-populations of invasive species that establish ahead of an advancing front. For many invaders, eradication of the main population is an untenable goal, yet it may be possible to treat and eradicate emerging sub-populations once these sub-populations are detected. We embed a dynamically optimal post-detection management plan of sub-populations into a model of optimal detection effort determination and find that optimal detection effort depends, in part, on the distance from the main front: locations closer to the front with shorter management horizons enjoy lower reductions in overall cost from intervention. The uninfested landscape is divided into two zones, characterized by different dynamically optimal management plans: a suppression zone and an eradication zone. In the suppression zone, optimal detection effort increases with distance from the front. At the distance where the suppression zone yields to the eradication zone, optimal detection effort plateaus at its maximum level.     

中西部民营企业产业政策的特性分析

我国民营经济不断发展壮大 ,已经成为推动我国经济增长的主力军 ,但是民营经济的进一步发展却受到多方面因素的约束 ,其中政策的因素在某种程度上是制约民营经济发展的一个主要原因。相对全国范围而言 ,中西部地区的落后在一定程度上表现为政策落后 ,虽然政府制定了不少政策 ,但是在有效性上存在颇多问题 ,政策特性遭到忽略就是主要问题之一。政策的制定和实施应体现出以下几种特性 :公平性、管理性、竞争性、优惠性和保护性。产业政策是影响民营经济发展的最重要政策之一 ,中西部有必要认真研究产业政策的特性 ,发现现有政策的不足 ,为政策创新提供思路     

The economics of the illicit drugs-for-guns trade and growth

Ever since US president Richard Nixon declared a war on drugs in 1971, different drug control policies have been implemented in both consumer and producer countries. These include policies ranging from crop eradication to an interdiction of drug shipments to outright legalization of drug possession. In this paper we develop a novel endogenous growth framework that unifies international trade, drugs control and accounts for consumers’ rational addiction and optimizing choice of drug consumption. Our results emphatically show that a one size-fits-all approach to drug control is ineffective. We show that there exists a production - consumption growth trade-off around the policy priority not previously documented in the literature. Moreover, we show that in the absence of a fundamental change to drug demand, drug control policies are unlikely to reduce illicit trades for drugs and guns in the long run.     

Structural change and macroeconomic policy: the case of Greece (1981–85)

This article examines one aspect of ‘alternative economic strategies’ which seek to introduce planning and other interventionist economic policies in order to promote structural change. Experience has shown, most recently in France and Greece in the 1980s, that such strategies are often abandoned because of macro-economic imbalances, such as current account crises. Thus it seems that a crucial aspect of such strategies should be the co-ordination of short-term, or macro-economic, policies with longer-term supply-side policies. The interest in the Greek experiment (1981–85) lies in the fact that the Greek socialists were aware of the need for such co-ordination and their strategy for ‘stabilization through development’ and ‘gradual adjustment’ was formulated for this purpose. This article looks at the economic theory underlying this approach and the implementation of the strategy. However it is argued that the degree of control necessary for the successful implementation of the strategy was lacking. The failure of macroeconomic policy once more contributed to the abandonment of an alternative economic strategy. I investigate the reasons behind this failure and draw some lessons of more general relevance for the successful co-ordination of macroeconomic and supply-side policies.

Accumulation involves a process of continual structural transformation, a qualitative change, in which the scale, content and location of economic activity are progressively transformed. There is no automatic mechanism ensuring that this takes place in a desirable manner or at a desirable pace (Eatwell and Green, 1984: 202).     

《2012年美国新经济指数》报告述评

《2012年美国新经济指数》报告为了测量美国各州的经济结构,根据新经济的典型特征和发展重求,使用一系列指标对美国50个州的经济情况进行了综合评价。马萨诸塞州因拥有众多由世界项级大学支持的软件、硬件和生物制药公司而排名第一。基于评价结果,报告提出了减少零和竞争、刺激“双赢”经济效果、支持制造业竞争等一系列有针对性的政策建议。该报告带给我们的启示是：创新是推动经济发展的主要引擎,地方经济发展应关注开放和协同,新经济发展应关注经济结构的合理性、应重视人才培养,高科技企业是引领新经济的主力舰。     

Research joint ventures in an international economy

D'Aspremont and Jacquemin's model is extended to study alternative configurations of research agreements in a two-country integrated world economy. Under unambiguous conditions on spillovers, we show that: (1) allowing national firms to cooperate in research and development (R&D) confers them an advantage over foreign rivals, an effect similar to R&D subsidies. (2) In a policy game, each government would allow national cooperative agreements. (3) Contrary to other trade policies which lead to a “prisoners' dilemma” result, welfare in both countries increases when they both allow R&D cooperation. (4) Welfare is even higher if a generalized (international) coalition is formed.     

新加坡新生水（NEWater）产业化分析及启示：基于ST视角

新加坡新生水（NEWater）产业高质量发展,是新兴技术产业化的成功范例,其独特的培育策略对把握新兴技术产业化培育规律,提高政府施策效力具有重要借鉴意义。基于可持续转型（ST）理论,在新技术演化基本模型基础上,设计NEWater产业化的ST分析框架,从社会-技术系统外部演进及创新生态位内生演化过程视角,揭示NEWater产业化培育机理,阐述新加坡政府如何通过科学设计政策组合,构建保护空间,助力NEWater创新生态位的培育、跃迁和协同演化过程。结论可为把握新兴技术产业化发展规律和培育成效提供一种崭新的分析框架,并为提高政府新兴技术产业化施策效果提供决策参考。     

当前统筹城乡发展中的八个重大问题

文章认为,在统筹城乡发展的过程中,粮食安全是实现统筹城乡发展的基础;城乡居民收入差距是否缩小是衡量推进城乡一体化政策措施正确与否的根本标准;中国现代农业发展的主体应该是以专业合作社形式组织起来的农民;农村金融体制改革的重点应放在发展农民之间的资金互助上;宏观调控必须遵循价值规律公平调控;地方政府绝不能与民争利;不断加大对农业和农民的补贴应作为今后"三农"政策的基本导向;农村社区化的本质是要让农民与市民一样过上现代文明的幸福生活,而不是要化掉村庄。     

Wasting Time? Recycling Incentives in Urban Taiwan and Japan

What makes recycling work? We study the factors driving household waste disposal and recycling in 18 cities in Taiwan and Japan in order to understand the impact of alternative waste management incentives. We show that this depends on the effect of distinct policies on the relative costs of the main alternative disposal methods: recycling, disposal to landfill and illegal dumping. The willingness both to recycle and to dispose to landfill depends on the relative costs of the waste collection regime, and these are dominated by the time cost of alternative disposal methods. The higher the frequency of waste collection, the less recycling and the more disposal to landfill there will be. This is because frequent collection reduces the marginal time-cost of disposal to landfill. Curbside collection of recyclable material, and the frequency of that collection, has a similar effect on the recycling rate. Although direct incentives, such as unit pricing are important in the waste disposal decision, recycling depends primarily on management of the time-costs it involves.     

制造型中小企业创新发展政策组合模式研究——基于31个省市的QCA分析

中国正处于高质量发展的关键机遇期,制造型中小企业的创新发展是实现高质量发展必备动力基础.以全国31个省、区、直辖市2016—2020年发布的支持制造型中小企业创新发展政策为样本,运用定性比较分析的方法(QCA)从中微观层面讨论制造型中小企业创新发展不同类别政策的组合模式及执行成效.研究发现:①以技术转移体系建设为主的科技服务中介政策是制造型中小企业创新发展的必要条件;②以直接支持为主的创新创业政策、以主体减税降费和提供直接金融支持为主的财税金融政策及以技术转移体系建设为主的科技服务中介政策等5种政策组合能够有效促进制造型中小企业创新发展.研究结果可为国家制造型中小企业创新发展政策的制定和完善提供参考.     

Learning by exporting and high-tech capital deepening in Singapore manufacturing industries, 1974–2006

A number of fundamental factors enhance the growth of industries’ productivity. Among others, the export-led and high-tech capital deepening strategies are widely adopted by developing economies. This article attempts to empirically investigate the extent to which both industrial development policies affect the Total Factor Productivity Growth (TFPG) in Singapore manufacturing industries during the period from 1974 to 2006. Using the panel data estimations, I find that both development strategies bring about TFPG via nonneutral technological growth, and the former more largely explains TFPG than does the latter. This study captures the measure of learning by exporting by the lagged export intensity and therefore contributes to the literature, in which only the case of whether or not firms are active in export markets is conventionally employed. Methodologically, my main contributions are a more detailed treatment of (nonneutral) technological changes, and an alternative measure of export intensity.     

Integrated scenarios of energy-related CO2 emissions in Ireland: A multi-sectoral analysis to 2020

This paper presents future scenarios of Irish energy-related CO₂ emissions to 2020, using a combination of multi-sectoral decomposition analysis with scenario analysis. Alternative development paths, driving forces and sectoral contributions in different scenarios have been explored. The scenarios are quantified by using decomposition analysis as a Divisia Index SCenario GENerator (DISCGEN). The driving forces of population, economic and social development, energy resources and technology and governance and policies are discussed. A set of four integrated or ‘hybrid’ qualitative and quantitative baseline emission scenarios are developed. It is found that sectoral contributions and emissions in each scenario vary significantly. The inclusion of governance, social and cultural driving forces are important in determining alternative development paths and sustainability is crucial. Our empirical results show that decomposition analysis is a useful technique to generate the alternative scenarios.     

Labour productivity trends in Australian manufacturing: some time series properties

Labour productivity plays a significant role in economic growth, labour demand and employment situation of a particular economy. In this light, the presence of a structural break in productivity, and its unit root property, has important consequences for the overall economy and in major sectors such as manufacturing. In this article, using some recently developed unit root tests, we examine: (i) the null hypothesis of a unit root in the log-level of labour productivity for 38 manufacturing subdivisions against the alternative of trend stationarity over a three-decade period; and (ii) the presence of a structural break in the series, and whether the break has had a permanent or a transitory effect on manufacturing labour productivity. Our main finding is that shocks to labour productivity have had a transitory effect, implying that policies are likely to have only short-term effects.     

Provided and perceived status quo in choice experiments: Implications for valuing the outputs of multifunctional rural areas

This article presents a choice experiment analyzing multifunctional rural development policies targeting conservation and recovery of environmental, social and cultural assets. In choice experiments a base alternative is usually included in order to estimate the welfare change associated to policy proposals. This study is concerned with the much neglected issue of the impact on policy analysis of the definition of a ‘status quo’ alternative either as an objective assessment by experts, or as a self-reported perception by respondents. Convergent validity analysis and prospective policy scenarios show a significant impact of different status quo specifications on individuals' preferences and related welfare measures when complex and unfamiliar biophysical systems are involved in policy analysis and evaluation.     

Institutions and industrial policy in Brazil after two decades: have we built the needed institutions?

ABSTRACT

This paper aims to examine the design and implementation of industrial policy in Brazil based on their capacity to affect the prevailing institutions. We argue that the main reason for the failure of policies in Brazil, and in Latin America, is their inability to induce persistent changes in firms’ innovative behavior. Based on the analysis of national innovation indicators, and on previous empirical studies, we demonstrate that the Brazilian industrial policy was not able to change the prevailing conventions. The main problems related to this fragility are: institutional problems and related to industrial policy development conventions; serious coordination problems; maintaining a macroeconomic policy that is not convergent toward industrial policy efforts; policy instruments that were not able to change prevailing conventions, such as low R&D and innovative expenditures; a set of strategic choices that are inconsistent with innovation, technological catch-up and structural change.