智力资本对经济增长的贡献分析

随着知识经济时代的到来,作为人力资本重要组成部分的智力资本,在经济增长中发挥着越来越重要的作用。本文主要从理论和实证的角度对此进行了分析和阐述,并得出结论：一是要加大智力资本的投资力度;二是要提高智力资本投资的效益。     

Capital income taxation and economic growth in open economies

Can reductions in domestic capital income taxes attract foreign capital and, at the same time, foster economic growth? Using a two-country overlapping generations model with endogenous growth and internationally mobile capital, this paper shows that the effect of domestic capital taxes on the international allocation of capital and on the rate of economic growth do not necessarily go in the same direction. A country can attract capital by reducing its taxes, but this may lower the rate of economic growth depending on the elasticity of saving to the net-of-tax interest rate and on the effect of taxes on domestic factor productivity.     

The valuation implications of human capital in transactions on and outside the exchange

We examine the valuation implications of human capital both for a broad sample of firms and for subsamples of high-technology firms and low-technology firms. Our results suggest that the market appears to value compensation expenses not as expenses but as if they serve as a proxy for a human asset that is omitted from the balance sheets. The findings are consistent with human capital comprising a more sizable portion of the value of high-technology firms than of low-technology firms. The findings also indicate that compensation expenses are valued differently from other expense components of income. Markedly, despite critical differences between investors on the exchange and those buying shares in transactions outside the exchange (controlling interests, information asymmetry, etc.), their assessment of the enhanced value of a firm attributable to human capital is shown to be relatively similar. The results in this study are consistent with compensation expenses creating a valuable intangible asset, hence suggesting that reform in the accounting treatment of these expenses is of critical importance.     

A theory of growth and volatility at the aggregate and firm level

We present an endogenous growth model that explains the evolution of the first and second moments of productivity growth at the aggregate and firm level during the post-war period. Growth is driven by the development of both (i) idiosyncratic R&D innovations and (ii) general innovations that can be freely adopted by many firms. Firm-level volatility is affected primarily by the Schumpeterian dynamics associated with the development of R&D innovations. The variance of aggregate productivity growth is driven by the arrival rate of general innovations. Ceteris paribus, the share of resources spent on development of general innovations increases with the stability of the market share of the industry leader. As market shares become less persistent, the model predicts an endogenous shift in the allocation of resources from the development of general innovations to the development of R&D innovations. This results in an increase in R&D, an increase in firm-level volatility, and a decline in aggregate volatility. The effect on productivity growth is ambiguous.On the empirical side, this paper presents new cross-country evidence that R&D subsidies are not significantly associated with higher growth but are associated with lower aggregate volatility. It also documents an upward trend in the instability of market shares, a positive association between firm volatility and R&D spending, and a negative association across sectors between R&D and how correlated the sector is with the rest of the economy.     

Two-earner households and housing demand: The effect of the wife's occupational choice

This article analyzes the impact of the occupational choice of married women in two-earner households on the level of housing expenditures. In recent years married women have chosen professional and managerial occupations with increasing frequency. Because entry and exit from such occupations is costly, households will tend to view the incremental income as permanent. To analyze the housing market impact of this trend, a housing expenditure function is estimated using a national data set for the 1979 to 1987 period. The results indicate that households in which the wife is employed in a professional or managerial occupation spend considerably more on housing for given levels of current income. Furthermore, the effect is most pronounced among move-up homebuyers. To the extent that recent trends in female occupational choice continue, the impact on the housing market may be substantial.     

加入WTO后国有企业的人才竞争策略

我国的企业在加入WTO后，面临众多的竞争，但归根到底是人才的竞争。我们必须未雨绸缪，在人力资源的开发和使用上，做好应战的准备，迎接我国加入WTO的新挑战。本文首先分析了人才竞争的趋势和特点，接着剖视了国有企业在人才竞争中面临的困境，最后提出了入世后人才竞争的对策措施，对国有企业具有一定的预警和借鉴意义。     

The Dynamic Effects of Public Capital: VAR Evidence for 22 OECD Countries

The issue of whether public capital is productive has received a great deal of recent attention. Yet, empirical analyses of public capital productivity have been limited to a small sample of countries for which official capital stock estimates are available. Building on a new database that provides internationally comparable capital stock estimates, this paper estimates the dynamic effects of public capital using the vector autoregressive (VAR) methodology for a large set of OECD countries. The empirical results suggest that there is evidence for positive output effects of public capital in OECD countries, but hardly any evidence for positive employment effects.JEL Code: C32, E62, H54     

The Impact of Dividends, Debt and Investment on Valuation Models

The reliability of a basic earnings and equity model of value is tested using 8,287 cases drawn from UK industrial and commercial firms reporting during 1987–1995. A respecification of this model is used to investigate the value relevance of dividends, capital structure and capital expenditure. Both the dividend and capital expenditure signals appear to be significant and the impact of the former is surprisingly strong. There is no convincing evidence that equity value is affected by the level of debt. Further investigation of dividends confirms that they are less influential in large firms or in firms with high return on equity.     

信任对创业融资的影响--基于我国转型经济的证据

研究我国转型期的社会特征和创业企业的融资特征,发现信任是一种较为理想的资源配置方式。利用我国70家新创企业的调查问卷进行实证分析,结合对部分中小企业的实地调研,分析中小企业的融资现状、问题,认为促进信任建设特别是制度信任建设是社会转型期改善创业融资的重要途径,并提出促进制度信任建设的几点建议。     

社会保障对人力资本及其经济增长的影响——基于中国1989-2008年的数据

伴随我国经济的高速增长,社会保障问题日益凸显。如何完善社会保障制度以更好地促进经济增长成为社会各界关注的重点。在新经济增长理论的影响下,经济学家们开始以人力资本作为中间变量,从社会保障影响人力资本及其形成过程的角度来论证社会保障与经济增长的关系。本文选取中国1989-2008年的数据为研究样本,运用协整理论来检验社会保障、人力资本积累与经济增长之间的关系。结果显示,在现收现付制下,社会保障水平的提高有利于促进人力资本积累,而提高社会保障缴费率对人力资本积累存在正负两种影响。     

财产保险公司经济资本配置中奖惩系统的构建

资本配置是保险公司经济资本管理的一项核心内容。保险公司为各业务线配置经济资本时,主要考虑不同业务线的损失分布函数,对大额损失的次数,尤其是损失金额超过期望损失的次数却未加考虑,这必然会使资本在业务线间的配置不公平。本文根据奖惩系统能有效区分被保险标的风险异质性的特点,分析了经济资本配置中奖惩系统的组成要素和评价指标,在一定的假设条件下得出奖惩系统的资本水平、转移概率和转移矩阵,构建了适用于资本配置的奖惩系统,从而为保险公司完善内部风险管理机制、提高偿付能力、设计具有激励作用的经济资本配置技术提供另一视角。     

Expected earnings growth and the cost of capital: an analysis of accounting regime change in the European financial market

This study focuses on the relation between the cost of equity capital and earnings expectations when the properties of accounting that determine earnings vary across different regulatory regimes. More particularly, it addresses the European setting where different types of GAAP regime have continued to function in the presence of the gradual harmonization of the underlying legal framework, and where the adoption of internationally recognized accounting standards by certain firms has anticipated the requirement for International Financial Reporting Standards. On the basis of estimates of the cost of equity that are implied by analysts' earnings forecasts, the article provides evidence that financial market integration may have already contributed to mitigating the economic consequences of accounting diversity, and that switching to IFRS could have a short lived impact on capital markets. Moreover, based on firm level transparency and disclosure rankings provided by Standard and Poor's, it is shown how the quality of financial reporting conditions the implied cost of equity under different GAAP.     

人口预期寿命与经济增长关系的研究评述

随着人口经济学理论的发展和OLG模型的不断拓展,关于预期寿命与经济增长关系的理论研究与实证分析逐渐深入。由于研究视角、理论模型以及样本数据等方面的不同,学者们关于两者关系的观点存在较大差异。本文梳理了部分国外当前主要相关文献,认为目前关于预期寿命作用于经济增长的观点可以归纳为:人口预期寿命上升提高人力资本回报率和储蓄率,进而促进经济增长;人口预期寿命上升将导致人口增长,进而降低人均GDP增长;人口预期寿命与经济增长存在非线性关系,非线性特征取决于人口结构转型、初始预期寿命等因素。     

The Disciplining Role of Leverage in Dutch Firms

In this study we investigate the role of leverage indisciplining overinvestment problems. We measure the relationships between leverage, Tobin's qand corporate governance characteristics for Dutch listed firms. Besides, ourempirical analysis tests for determinants of leverage from tax and bankruptcy theories. Representinggrowth opportunities, q is expected to be an agency-based determinant of leverage.Simultaneously, q represents firm value, which is determined by leverage and governancestructures. We test a structural equations model in which we deal with this simultaneousnature of the relation between leverage and q. Our results indicate that Dutch managersavoid the disciplining role of debt, when they are most likely to overinvest. Leverage is mainlydetermined by tax advantages and bankruptcy costs. In addition, we test the impact ofleverage on excess investment. We do not find a difference in the influence of leverage oninvestment between potential overinvestors and other firms. This confirms that the disciplinary roleof leverage in Dutch firms is absent.     

A structural decomposition of the U.S. trade balance: Productivity, demographics and fiscal policy

The US external deficits have been the most striking manifestation of global imbalances. This paper investigates the contribution of productivity growth, demographics and fiscal policy in accounting for the evolution of the US external imbalances against industrialized countries during the last three decades. Productivity growth plays a dominant role. Demographics explain a non-negligible and nearly permanent component of the US trade deficit. Furthermore, the international demographic transition is crucial for large US external imbalances to be consistent with the persistent decline of world real interest rates observed in the data. Fiscal policy is of minor importance.     

美国和OECD的预约定价协议程序--美国和OECD转让定价规则比较研究之五

在分析阐述转让定价调整方法过程中,我们可以看到要取得与正常交易价格完全一致的结果存在很大的困难,这是因为为了对关联企业的转让定价进行调整,虽然在理论上将关联企业视同独立企业看待,但关联企业实际上并不同于非关联企业,以非关联企业即非受控交易的结果作为参照对关联企业间的交易进行判断和调整,有时并不能做到客观和准确.这经常使税务当局和纳税人之间陷入复杂的争议,费时又费力.为了解决事后调整转让定价的困难,美国和OECD有关转让定价调整规章都规定可以采用事先裁定的办法,在关联企业进行跨国经营前,就内部作价的方法作出安排,并在税务当局和纳税人之间达成协议.这就是所谓的预约定价协议,也称预约定价安排,简称为APA或APAs.本文主要阐述美国APA程序的主要内容,也就OECD的APA指南中特色部分作对比说明.     

The output and profit contribution of information technology and advertising investments in banks

This paper examines the contribution of investments in Information Technology (IT) and in advertising to the output and profits of Spanish banks, in the period 1983–2003. We find that the growth in the stock of IT capital explains one third of output growth of banks, and that an additional investment in IT of one million euros may be substituted for twenty-five workers. The paper also finds that advertising investments increase the demand for bank services with an elasticity of 0.22 for deposits and 0.11 for loans. For all the assets considered, the null hypothesis that banks use the profit-maximizing amount of services per period cannot be rejected with the data.     

The Sustainable Growth Rate of Non–profit Organisations: The Effect of Efficiency, Profitability and Capital Structure

The activity growth of non–profit organisations is financially contrained by their efficiency, profitability and capital structure. In this paper, a very general expression relating these four organisational parameters is derived and its practical use is discussed.     

The cyclical effects of the Basel II capital requirements

Capital requirements play a key role in the supervision and regulation of banks. The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision is in the process of changing the current framework by introducing risk sensitive capital charges. Some fear that this will unduly increase the volatility of regulatory capital. Furthermore, by limiting the banks’ ability to lend, capital requirements may exacerbate an economic downturn. The paper examines the problem of capital-induced lending cycles and their pro-cyclical effect on the macroeconomy in greater detail. It finds that the capital buffer that banks hold on top of the required minimum capital plays a crucial role in mitigating the impact of the volatility of capital requirements.