智力资本对经济增长的贡献分析

随着知识经济时代的到来,作为人力资本重要组成部分的智力资本,在经济增长中发挥着越来越重要的作用。本文主要从理论和实证的角度对此进行了分析和阐述,并得出结论：一是要加大智力资本的投资力度;二是要提高智力资本投资的效益。     

Capital income taxation and economic growth in open economies

Can reductions in domestic capital income taxes attract foreign capital and, at the same time, foster economic growth? Using a two-country overlapping generations model with endogenous growth and internationally mobile capital, this paper shows that the effect of domestic capital taxes on the international allocation of capital and on the rate of economic growth do not necessarily go in the same direction. A country can attract capital by reducing its taxes, but this may lower the rate of economic growth depending on the elasticity of saving to the net-of-tax interest rate and on the effect of taxes on domestic factor productivity.     

The valuation implications of human capital in transactions on and outside the exchange

We examine the valuation implications of human capital both for a broad sample of firms and for subsamples of high-technology firms and low-technology firms. Our results suggest that the market appears to value compensation expenses not as expenses but as if they serve as a proxy for a human asset that is omitted from the balance sheets. The findings are consistent with human capital comprising a more sizable portion of the value of high-technology firms than of low-technology firms. The findings also indicate that compensation expenses are valued differently from other expense components of income. Markedly, despite critical differences between investors on the exchange and those buying shares in transactions outside the exchange (controlling interests, information asymmetry, etc.), their assessment of the enhanced value of a firm attributable to human capital is shown to be relatively similar. The results in this study are consistent with compensation expenses creating a valuable intangible asset, hence suggesting that reform in the accounting treatment of these expenses is of critical importance.     

A theory of growth and volatility at the aggregate and firm level

We present an endogenous growth model that explains the evolution of the first and second moments of productivity growth at the aggregate and firm level during the post-war period. Growth is driven by the development of both (i) idiosyncratic R&D innovations and (ii) general innovations that can be freely adopted by many firms. Firm-level volatility is affected primarily by the Schumpeterian dynamics associated with the development of R&D innovations. The variance of aggregate productivity growth is driven by the arrival rate of general innovations. Ceteris paribus, the share of resources spent on development of general innovations increases with the stability of the market share of the industry leader. As market shares become less persistent, the model predicts an endogenous shift in the allocation of resources from the development of general innovations to the development of R&D innovations. This results in an increase in R&D, an increase in firm-level volatility, and a decline in aggregate volatility. The effect on productivity growth is ambiguous.On the empirical side, this paper presents new cross-country evidence that R&D subsidies are not significantly associated with higher growth but are associated with lower aggregate volatility. It also documents an upward trend in the instability of market shares, a positive association between firm volatility and R&D spending, and a negative association across sectors between R&D and how correlated the sector is with the rest of the economy.     

Two-earner households and housing demand: The effect of the wife's occupational choice

This article analyzes the impact of the occupational choice of married women in two-earner households on the level of housing expenditures. In recent years married women have chosen professional and managerial occupations with increasing frequency. Because entry and exit from such occupations is costly, households will tend to view the incremental income as permanent. To analyze the housing market impact of this trend, a housing expenditure function is estimated using a national data set for the 1979 to 1987 period. The results indicate that households in which the wife is employed in a professional or managerial occupation spend considerably more on housing for given levels of current income. Furthermore, the effect is most pronounced among move-up homebuyers. To the extent that recent trends in female occupational choice continue, the impact on the housing market may be substantial.     

加入WTO后国有企业的人才竞争策略

我国的企业在加入WTO后，面临众多的竞争，但归根到底是人才的竞争。我们必须未雨绸缪，在人力资源的开发和使用上，做好应战的准备，迎接我国加入WTO的新挑战。本文首先分析了人才竞争的趋势和特点，接着剖视了国有企业在人才竞争中面临的困境，最后提出了入世后人才竞争的对策措施，对国有企业具有一定的预警和借鉴意义。     

The Dynamic Effects of Public Capital: VAR Evidence for 22 OECD Countries

The issue of whether public capital is productive has received a great deal of recent attention. Yet, empirical analyses of public capital productivity have been limited to a small sample of countries for which official capital stock estimates are available. Building on a new database that provides internationally comparable capital stock estimates, this paper estimates the dynamic effects of public capital using the vector autoregressive (VAR) methodology for a large set of OECD countries. The empirical results suggest that there is evidence for positive output effects of public capital in OECD countries, but hardly any evidence for positive employment effects.JEL Code: C32, E62, H54     

Sustainable economic growth in the European Union: The role of ICT,venture capital,and innovation

Over the past 30 years, the economies in Europe have undergone major transformations that have been powered by diffusion of information and communication technology (ICT), intensification of innovation, and reforms in the financial sector to support innovative endeavors. The primary objective of this study was to examine the causal relationships among ICT diffusion, innovation diffusion, venture capital investment, and economic growth for 25 countries in Europe for the period from 1989 to 2016. Using a vector error‐correction model, the study examines the underlying short‐run and long‐run relationships for the above variables. The empirical analysis shows that in the long run, venture capital investment, ICT diffusion, and innovation diffusion have significant impacts on economic growth in Europe. However, in the short run, the direction of the causality varies depending on the specific measures of ICT diffusion and innovation diffusion that are utilized. Results from this study provide valuable insights into the types of policies that will contribute to sustainable economic growth in Europe.     

The Impact of Dividends, Debt and Investment on Valuation Models

The reliability of a basic earnings and equity model of value is tested using 8,287 cases drawn from UK industrial and commercial firms reporting during 1987–1995. A respecification of this model is used to investigate the value relevance of dividends, capital structure and capital expenditure. Both the dividend and capital expenditure signals appear to be significant and the impact of the former is surprisingly strong. There is no convincing evidence that equity value is affected by the level of debt. Further investigation of dividends confirms that they are less influential in large firms or in firms with high return on equity.     

The stock market valuation of human capital creation

We develop a measure of firm-year-specific human capital investment from publicly disclosed personnel expenses (PE) and examine the stock market valuation of this investment. Measuring the future value of PE (PEFV) based on the relation between lagged PE and current operating income, we first show that PEFV is positively associated with characteristics of human-capital-intensive firms. Next, we find that PEFV has a positive pricing coefficient, implying that the market recognizes some of its variation. In our main analysis, we find that market participants fail to fully impound the investment in human capital. The absolute value of analyst forecast errors is increasing in firm PEFV, and the signed value of these errors reveals that analysts are pessimistic for earnings of firms with high human capital investments. A long-short portfolio based on PEFV produces annualized value-weighted (equal-weighted) abnormal returns of 6.5% (3.5%). Portfolios formed by interacting PEFV with total PE, which combines the current potential investment in human capital with the historic portion of PE that created human capital, increase these returns to between 4.8% and 7.8%. These results are insensitive to numerous empirical choices.     

跨省流动农民工再次择业影响因素的实证研究

根据实际抽样调查数据,使用了嵌入式logit模型,估计了各种因素对农民工再次择业的影响。实证研究结果表明:在控制住家庭特征和人口特征等有关变量之后,择业前收入水平越低,农民工倾向于换工作又换产业;原产业的增长率越高,农民工以较大的几率不换工作或者换工作但不换产业;工作经验越多,农民工倾向于不换工作或者换工作但不换产业。     

The impact of CIO characteristics on data breaches

The exponential rate of increase in IT security breach incidents has led governments, regulators, and practitioners to respond by introducing standards and frameworks for the disclosure and management of organizational cybersecurity risk exposure. Cybersecurity, which is a part of IT risk management, is affected by the capability and the ability of senior leadership responsible for IT-related decisions. This paper uses hand-collected data related to the Chief Information Officer (CIO) for S&P 500 firms and explores whether the presence of a CIO role, human capital characteristics of the CIO, and structural capital characteristics of the firm and the CIO are related to a firm’s cybersecurity risk exposure. This study finds that firms disclosing the presence of a CIO are more likely to be breached, even after matching on the likelihood of a breach and controlling for the likelihood that a firm would choose to disclose a CIO. This study also finds predictable variations in the likelihood of a breach among CIOs based on various human capital dimensions (including past technology experience, external board memberships, firm tenure, and CIO tenure) and structural capital dimensions (including a recognized commitment to IT and charging the CIO with multiple responsibilities). Finally, this study finds evidence that the observed associations depend on both the source of the breach (external vs. internal) as well as the type of data compromised by the breach (e.g. financial, personal, etc.). The results of this study contribute to the growing body of academic breach literature, while also informing practitioners as they evaluate the costs and benefits of various methods for combating breaches.     

A study of human capital reporting in the United Kingdom

Recently, there have been attempts at increasing human capital (HC) reporting in the United Kingdom (UK) through the introduction of government legislation and other initiatives. This paper assesses the current state of HC reporting in the UK by analysing the annual reports of the Financial Times Stock Exchange 100 companies before and after relevant amendments to the Companies Act 2006. The findings show that most of the companies analysed have been increasing their HC reporting, going beyond their statutory duties and moving away from wider intellectual capital disclosures to focus more on HC issues. However, these changes were not universal.     

扩招后大学毕业生数量增长对城市产业结构升级的影响

通过计算城市技术复杂度指标,利用2003-2013年286个城市的面板数据,考量扩招带来的高校毕业生人数增长对当地产业结构升级影响,结果显示：扩招后高校毕业生人数增长对城市产业升级整体上有促进作用,这种促进作用在不同规模的城市具有显著差异。在中等规模城市的产业升级过程中,大学生吸收技术和创新能力需要通过更多的外商投资和更高的市场化程度实现。而对于大型城市,提高专业化程度是产业结构升级的核心,更有利于发挥大学生的专业技能优势。此外,居民的消费结构升级是城市产业结构升级的重要推力。地方政府应继续扩大开放,吸引外资,推动市场化和专业化分工,有效发挥大学生在推动城市产业升级方面作用。     

信任对创业融资的影响--基于我国转型经济的证据

研究我国转型期的社会特征和创业企业的融资特征,发现信任是一种较为理想的资源配置方式。利用我国70家新创企业的调查问卷进行实证分析,结合对部分中小企业的实地调研,分析中小企业的融资现状、问题,认为促进信任建设特别是制度信任建设是社会转型期改善创业融资的重要途径,并提出促进制度信任建设的几点建议。     

社会保障对人力资本及其经济增长的影响——基于中国1989-2008年的数据

伴随我国经济的高速增长,社会保障问题日益凸显。如何完善社会保障制度以更好地促进经济增长成为社会各界关注的重点。在新经济增长理论的影响下,经济学家们开始以人力资本作为中间变量,从社会保障影响人力资本及其形成过程的角度来论证社会保障与经济增长的关系。本文选取中国1989-2008年的数据为研究样本,运用协整理论来检验社会保障、人力资本积累与经济增长之间的关系。结果显示,在现收现付制下,社会保障水平的提高有利于促进人力资本积累,而提高社会保障缴费率对人力资本积累存在正负两种影响。     

财产保险公司经济资本配置中奖惩系统的构建

资本配置是保险公司经济资本管理的一项核心内容。保险公司为各业务线配置经济资本时,主要考虑不同业务线的损失分布函数,对大额损失的次数,尤其是损失金额超过期望损失的次数却未加考虑,这必然会使资本在业务线间的配置不公平。本文根据奖惩系统能有效区分被保险标的风险异质性的特点,分析了经济资本配置中奖惩系统的组成要素和评价指标,在一定的假设条件下得出奖惩系统的资本水平、转移概率和转移矩阵,构建了适用于资本配置的奖惩系统,从而为保险公司完善内部风险管理机制、提高偿付能力、设计具有激励作用的经济资本配置技术提供另一视角。     

Expected earnings growth and the cost of capital: an analysis of accounting regime change in the European financial market

This study focuses on the relation between the cost of equity capital and earnings expectations when the properties of accounting that determine earnings vary across different regulatory regimes. More particularly, it addresses the European setting where different types of GAAP regime have continued to function in the presence of the gradual harmonization of the underlying legal framework, and where the adoption of internationally recognized accounting standards by certain firms has anticipated the requirement for International Financial Reporting Standards. On the basis of estimates of the cost of equity that are implied by analysts' earnings forecasts, the article provides evidence that financial market integration may have already contributed to mitigating the economic consequences of accounting diversity, and that switching to IFRS could have a short lived impact on capital markets. Moreover, based on firm level transparency and disclosure rankings provided by Standard and Poor's, it is shown how the quality of financial reporting conditions the implied cost of equity under different GAAP.     

A Comment on the Place of Funded Pensions in Transition Economies

Arguments are presented in the case of Eastern European transitioncountries for combining the restructuring of insolvent pay-as-you-goretirement systems with the introduction of mandatory, private,funded pensions. They involve the reduction of dead-weight loss,the return to formal activity of gray markets, and the developmentof capital markets. With the proper financing, such policiescan also increase national savings. Lack of public knowledgeabout financial instruments for saving argues for making participationin the private funds mandatory. A combination of a reformed pay-as-you-gosystem with private, mandatory funds balances concern for politicalrisk and real wage variability with concern for the variabilityof real financial returns.Animportant caveat is in order. Implementing such a policy requiresa capacity for effective enforcement of prudencial regulationsand a commitment to macroeconomic stability. If these are notpresent, reform should be limited to restoring balance to thepay-as-you-go system.