Mean reversion and consumption smoothing

Most models of the evolution of wealth and consumption assumethat wealth volatility and risk premium are constant. But infact, volatility decliners, and risk premium seems to decline,as wealth rises. A model that allows mean reversion in the sensethat the risk premium declines as wealth rises can help explainboth the 'consumption smoothing puzzle' and the 'equity premiumpuzzle'. In an example of such a model that gives us an analyticsolution, direct and derived risk aversion are both constant,but differ.     

Government consumption smoothing in a balanced budget regime

I investigate government consumption smoothing (sensitivity) under a balanced budget rule in Swedish municipalities. In general, I find Swedish municipalities to be highly consumption sensitive. Municipalities consume 87.6 % out of predicted current revenues in the time period leading up to the implementation of the balanced budget rule, and they consume 76.3 % out of predicted current revenue in the time period following the implementation. Fiscally weak municipalities are found to be more consumption sensitive than fiscally strong municipalities. Very weak municipalities have become more consumption sensitive compared with very strong municipalities since the implementation of the balanced budget rule. Thus, I find indicative evidence that both credit market constraints and formal budget rules such as balanced budget rules increase municipal consumption sensitivity.     

Nonlinearity and smoothing in venture capital performance data

Performance indices for illiquid investments are known to suffer from returns smoothing, and the purpose of this paper is to investigate the presence and nature of such smoothing in the context of venture capital. We find that while the standard techniques may or may not indicate the presence of smoothing, significant evidence of smoothing exists when a nonlinear regime-dependent model is specified. Further, the model suggests the presence of regime-specific responsiveness of venture capital returns whereby different weights are placed on newly arrived information in different regimes.     

A leisurely reading of the life-cycle consumption data

A puzzle in consumption theory is the observation of a hump in age-consumption profiles. This paper studies a general equilibrium life-cycle economy with capital in which households include both consumption and leisure in their period utility function. A calibrated version of the model shows that a significant hump in life-cycle consumption is a feature of the equilibrium. Thus inclusion of leisure in household preferences may provide part of the explanation of observed life-cycle consumption humps.     

Consumption smoothing channels in open economies

Many intertemporal open economy macro models imply a theory of consumption smoothing channels; thus we build an empirical model to analyze the intertemporal smoothing role of saving components (fixed investments, inventories and trade balance) through the use of VAR impulse responses to different types of shocks. We find that for the OECD countries the bulk of intertemporal smoothing has been carried out domestically, via gross fixed investments and inventories, but the trade balance has also played a relevant – albeit volatile – smoothing role. We also characterize the dynamic behavior of each component: the trade balance and inventories are mostly used as short-run smoothing tools while fixed investment provides more and more smoothing over time. We can also address some empirical puzzles, such as the “excess sensitivity of investment” anomaly (Glick, R., Rogoff, K., 1995. Global versus country-specific productivity shocks and the current account. Journal of Monetary Economics, 35, 159–192) and the “saving-investment correlation puzzle” (Feldstein, M., Horioka, C., 1980. Domestic saving and international capital flows. Economic Journal, 90, 314–329).     

How do house prices affect consumption? Evidence from micro data

Housing is a major component of wealth. Since house prices fluctuate considerably over time, it is important to understand how these fluctuations affect households’ consumption decisions. Rising house prices may stimulate consumption by increasing households’ perceived wealth, or by relaxing borrowing constraints. This paper investigates the response of household consumption to house prices using UK micro data. We estimate the largest effect of house prices on consumption for older homeowners, and the smallest effect, insignificantly different from zero, for younger renters. This finding is consistent with heterogeneity in the wealth effect across these groups. In addition, we find that regional house prices affect regional consumption growth. Predictable changes in house prices are correlated with predictable changes in consumption, particularly for households that are more likely to be borrowing constrained, but this effect is driven by national rather than regional house prices and is important for renters as well as homeowners, suggesting that UK house prices are correlated with aggregate financial market conditions.     

Income smoothing by Dutch hospitals

Research indicates that hospitals manage their earnings. However, these findings might be influenced by methodological issues. In this study, I exploit specific features of Dutch hospitals to study income smoothing while limiting these methodological issues. The managers of Dutch hospitals have the opportunity not only to postpone revenues to future periods but also to choose the moment of recognition of the postponed revenue. These postponements and recognitions can be positive as well as negative and have to be disclosed in hospitals’ financial statements. I show that the patterns found with respect to postponing revenue and the recognition of postponed revenue are consistent with the expectation that hospitals attempt to smooth their income.     

Measuring managerial equity ownership: a comparison of sources of ownership data

This paper demonstrates that differences in managerial ownership data cannot explain contradictory empirical evidence on the relation between equity ownership and the entrenchment of managers. Three commonly used sources of managerial equity ownership data are described and contrasted. The Value Line Investment Survey is shown to be a relatively low-cost substitute for the data on beneficial ownership by officers and directors found in corporate proxy statements.     

On the empirics of international smoothing

By fully exploiting the statistical properties of panel data, this paper improves upon existing methodologies to estimate consumption smoothing at least in three respects. First, we model explicitly incomplete risksharing as well as incomplete intertemporal smoothing, and couch the two mechanisms in a unified framework. Second, we fully exploit simple panel data analysis in order to measure degrees of both risksharing and intertemporal smoothing taking place in a given set of economic regions. In particular, we are able to measure not only the smoothing of idiosyncratic shocks, but also the dependence on aggregate (non-diversifiable) shocks. Third, we distinguish neatly between the effects of temporary vs. permanent shocks. This can be done by taking advantage of the complementarity between the “within” estimator and the “between” estimator in a panel regression.     

Income smoothing and the cost of debt

The literature on income smoothing focuses on the effect of earnings smoothing on the equity market.This paper investigates the effect of income smoothing on th...     

Income smoothing from a Census X-12 perspective

Corporate income smoothing has been the focus of much attention, yet relatively little is known about the key characteristics of income-smoothing firms. To address this issue, the current study uses quarterly data with Census X-12 analysis in a novel way to identify firms where the degree of random variability in earnings is less than the degree of random variability in sales (EVAR < SVAR). Prior research views such firms as effective smoothers, since most firms have scale-free variability profiles in the opposite direction (EVAR > SVAR). Large-sample US results identify these exceptions throughout a broad cross section of firms, but smaller and less profitable firms tended to have a higher incidence rate. Results also indicate that effective smoothers exhibited higher earnings persistence.     

The smoothing of pension expenses: a panel analysis

The main purpose of this paper is to utilize recent developments in panel data techniques to evaluate whether the smoothing of pension expenses is neutral in its long-term effect on reported earnings. Adopting a long-term perspective, the empirical analysis also identifies sources of potential deviations. Results suggest that the current smoothing mechanism tends to induce significant biases in the recognized pension expenses. For a majority of the sample firms, the tendency is to overstate the sponsoring firms’ earnings in the long run. To a large extent, such biases reflect the combination of both ineffective amortization of the deferred gains and losses and questionable latitude in pension rate discretions.     

时间序列平滑法在产品产量预测中的应用

应用收益法进行企业价值评估必须对企业的未来收益进行预测。如何科学地预测企业的未来收益,始终是企业价值评估中的难点。而产品产量(销量)的预测又是企业未来收益预测的基础。本文介绍了布朗单一参数线性指数平滑法、霍特双参数指数平滑法、布朗三参数指数平滑法及温特线性和季节性指数平滑法四种时间序列平滑法在产品产量预测中的应用,并对这四种方法的适用范围进行了总结。     

Lean consumption

During the past 20 years, the real price of most consumer goods has fallen worldwide, the variety of goods and the range of sales channels offering them have continued to grow, and product quality has steadily improved. So why is consumption often so frustrating? It doesn't have to be--and shouldn't be--the authors say. They argue that it's time to apply lean thinking to the processes of consumption--to give consumers the full value they want from goods and services with the greatest efficiency and the least pain. Companies may think they save time and money by off-loading work to the consumer but, in fact, the opposite is true. By streamlining their systems for providing goods and services, and by making it easier for customers to buy and use those products and services, a growing number of companies are actually lowering costs while saving everyone time. In the process, these businesses are learning more about their customers, strengthening consumer loyalty, and attracting new customers who are defecting from less user-friendly competitors. The challenge lies with the retailers, service providers, manufacturers, and suppliers that are not used to looking at total cost from the standpoint of the consumer and even less accustomed to working with customers to optimize the consumption process. Lean consumption requires a fundamental shift in the way companies think about the relationship between provision and consumption, and the role their customers play in these processes. It also requires consumers to change the nature of their relationships with the companies they patronize. Lean production has clearly triumphed over similar obstacles in recent years to become the dominant global manufacturing model. Lean consumption, its logical companion, can't be far behind.     

Long-run risk in durable consumption

Durable consumption growth is persistent and predicted by the price-dividend ratio. This provides strong and direct evidence for the existence of a highly persistent expected component. Durable consumption growth is left-skewed and exhibits time-varying volatility. I model durable consumption growth as containing a persistent expected component and driven by counter-cyclical volatility, nondurable consumption as a random walk, and dividend growth as exposed to the expected component of durable consumption growth. Together with nonseparable Epstein-Zin preferences, the model demonstrates that long-run risk in durable consumption can explain major asset market phenomena. The model also generates an upward-sloping real term structure.     

Cross-country determinants of bank income smoothing by managing loan-loss provisions

This paper studies the determinants of income smoothing by management of loan-loss provisions in banks around the world. Using a panel database of 3221 bank-year observations from 40 countries and controlling for unobservable bank effects and for the endogeneity of explanatory variables, we find that bank income smoothing depends on investor protection, disclosure, regulation and supervision, financial structure, and financial development. Results suggest there is less bank income smoothing not only with the strength of investor protection, but also with the extent of accounting disclosure, restrictions on bank activities, and official and private supervision, while there is more income smoothing with market orientation and development of a country’s financial system.     

Risk measurement distortion: an improved model of return smoothing

We examine the effects of smoothed hedge fund returns on standard deviation, skewness, and kurtosis of return and on correlation of returns using a MA(2)-GARCH(1,1)-skewed-t representation instead of the traditional MA(2) model employed in the literature. We present evidence that our proposed representation is more consistent with the behavior of hedge fund returns than the traditional MA(2) representation and that the traditional method tends to overstate the degree of smoothing observed in hedge fund returns. We examine methods for correcting the distortive effects of smoothing using our representation.     

Aggregate liquidity shortages, idiosyncratic liquidity smoothing and banking regulation

This paper develops a model of banking fragility driven by aggregate liquidity shortages. Inefficiencies arise from a failure of the interbank market to smooth the available liquidity in such a shortage. We find that a standard lender of last resort policy is ineffective in restoring efficiency as it leads to offsetting changes in the banks’ supply of liquidity. In contrast, subsidizing the purchase of assets from troubled banks increases welfare by improving the banks’ liquidity holdings. The first best, however, is achieved by redistributing existing liquidity from healthy to troubled banks in a crisis.     

Political cost influences on income smoothing via extraordinary item classification

Until 1990, Australian managers could classify recurring gains and losses outside the normal operations of the firm as either operating or extraordinary items. The results of this study indicate that managers of companies with highly unionised workforces, and therefore subject to labour-related political costs, attempted to affect the probability of wealth transfers by smoothing reported net operating profit via the classification of those recurring gains and losses. The degree of management ownership is associated with classificatory smoothing but interest coverage is not, indicating differential contracting influences.     

Measuring Readability in Financial Disclosures

Defining and measuring readability in the context of financial disclosures becomes important with the increasing use of textual analysis and the Securities and Exchange Commission's plain English initiative. We propose defining readability as the effective communication of valuation‐relevant information. The Fog Index—the most commonly applied readability measure—is shown to be poorly specified in financial applications. Of Fog's two components, one is misspecified and the other is difficult to measure. We report that 10‐K document file size provides a simple readability proxy that outperforms the Fog Index, does not require document parsing, facilitates replication, and is correlated with alternative readability constructs.