On the transaction values of land use rights in rural China

Land Use Rights (LURs) in China affect farmers’ productivity through investment incentives and the way land is allocated across households. LURs have implication and trade-offs between equity and growth. This paper examines how Chinese farmers might respond if the Chinese government made it legal for farmers to buy or sell LURs. Livelihood choices, labor substitution, market infrastructure, a lack of property right protections, entrepreneurship, bureaucracy, and political will are all influential factors that will determine whether such a program would work. The purpose of this paper is to examine the economics of transaction in LURs, estimate the value at which LURs could transact in equilibrium, and to analyze factors that would affect these price changes. We evaluate farmer’s intention to buy and sell LURs and how much they are willing to pay and receive for LURs.     

Social security and unsecured debt

In this paper, we use a calibrated life-cycle model to explore quantitatively ways of reducing the burden of social security in a world populated by both optimizing and rule-of-thumb consumers. Social security contributions force young households with upward-sloping income profiles to save a sizeable portion of their income for retirement, when their optimal consumption plan would likely have them either saving little or borrowing. We first use household data to document that young households have accumulated social security contributions that are large relative to debt holdings. Then, using a calibrated life-cycle model, we show that both allowing households to use social security wealth to pay off their debt and exempting young households from social security contributions (but in both cases requiring higher contributions later) mitigate many of the inefficiencies of social security from the perspective of life-cycle financial planning. Specifically, in our preferred experiment, which exempts households whose heads are under 30 from making social security contributions, we find that certainty-equivalent consumption increases by 3.4% for optimizing households and by 3.3% for rule-of-thumb households.     

Simulating soil fertility and poverty dynamics in Uganda: A bio-economic multi-agent systems approach

Declining soil fertility and increasing rural poverty are major problems facing sub-Saharan agriculture. Bio-economic modeling has been used to analyze the complex interaction between ecological sustainability and rural poverty as well as to explore policy options promoting sustainable development. This paper shows that these models can be further advanced by adopting an agent-based modeling approach. This gives a more realistic representation of diversity in socioeconomic and biophysical terms, allows local interaction between households, and can yield an ex-ante assessment of the distributional consequences of policy intervention. This paper describes the modeling approach and illustrates it with an empirical application to two village communities in the Lake Victoria Crescent of Uganda. It is shown how the model system can be calibrated with and validated against empirical data. The model is used to analyze the potential effect of short-term credit, mineral fertilizer, and improved maize seed on poverty and sustainability. Simulation results suggest substantial reductions in poverty although the incidence of poverty would remain high and these innovations alone would have little effect on the long-term ecological sustainability of the system.     

Stabilization policy,infrastructure investment,and welfare in a small open economy

Using a two-sector neoclassical growth model in an open economy setting with heterogeneous agents, this paper studies the distributional effects and welfare implications of a joint monetary and fiscal policy response to public infrastructure expansion in emerging market economies. The results show that fiscal stabilization policy is critical for achieving fiscal sustainability and price stability. With joint support of monetary and fiscal policy, government infrastructure investment provides significant welfare gains to the economy, and the choice of fiscal instruments has major distributional effects across agents: saving households accrue the highest welfare gains with new bond issuance, while hand-to-mouth consumers are better off when non-distorting taxes are adjusted. These potential tradeoffs in welfare due to households’ differing responses to infrastructure expansion have important implications for policy making.     

Inequality,growth, and environmental quality trade‐offs in a model with human capital accumulation

This paper develops a simple endogenous growth model where pollution exposure and vulnerability are unequally spread across the population, and growth and distribution are endogenous. In this set‐up, we investigate whether trade‐offs between growth, distributional, and environmental concerns may emerge. We show that a tighter environmental policy reduces income inequality and can improve both growth and total welfare. Immediate welfare losses, though, do occur, and are larger for countries that start at low levels of environmental quality (e.g. developing countries).     

How important are dual economy effects for aggregate productivity?

This paper brings together development accounting techniques and the dual economy model to address the role that factor markets have in creating variation in aggregate total factor productivity (TFP). Development accounting research has shown that much of the variation in income across countries can be attributed to differences in TFP. The dual economy model suggests that aggregate productivity is depressed by having too many factors allocated to low productivity work in agriculture. Data show large differences in marginal products of similar factors within many developing countries, offering prima facie evidence of this misallocation. Using a simple two-sector decomposition of the economy, this article estimates the role of these misallocations in accounting for the cross-country income distribution. A key contribution is the ability to bring sector-specific data on human and physical capital stocks to the analysis. Variation across countries in the degree of misallocation is shown to account for 30–40% of the variation in income per capita, and up to 80% of the variation in aggregate TFP.     

A proposal for social pricing of water supply in Côte d'Ivoire

We consider the design of a nonlinear social tariff for residential water in Côte d'Ivoire, which is a case of a monopolistic private operator supplying a population of heterogeneous consumers. The proposed optimal tariff includes an initial “social” block with a low unit price, and higher consumption blocks with a monopoly pricing rule. This optimal nonlinear tariff is calibrated using econometric estimates of a panel-data residential water demand equation. Welfare changes associated with moving from the actual tariff to approximations of the optimal pricing system are computed under different tariff scenarios. We find that gains in consumer welfare would outweigh losses in producer surplus in a majority of Ivorian local communities.     

Environmental Taxation,Inequality and Engel’s Law: The Double Dividend of Redistribution

Empirical evidence shows that low-income households spend a high share of their income on pollution-intensive goods. This fuels the concern that an environmental tax reform could be regressive. We employ a framework which accounts for the distributional effect of environmental taxes and the recycling of the revenues on both households and firms to quantify changes in the optimal tax structure and the equity impacts of an environmental tax reform. We characterize when an optimal environmental tax reform does not increase inequality, even if the tax system before the reform is optimal from a non-environmental point of view. If the tax system before the reform is calibrated to stylized data—and is thus non-optimal—we find that there is a large scope for inequality reduction, even if the government is restricted in its recycling options.     

Can information alone change behavior? Response to arsenic contamination of groundwater in Bangladesh

We study how effectively information induces Bangladeshi households to avoid a health risk. The response to information is large and rapid; knowing that the household's well water has an unsafe concentration of arsenic raises the probability that the household changes to another well within one year by 0.37. Households who change wells increase the time spent obtaining water fifteen-fold. We identify a causal effect of information, since incidence of arsenic is uncorrelated with household characteristics. Our door-to-door information campaign provides well-specific arsenic levels without which behavior does not change. Media communicate general information about arsenic less expensively and no less effectively.     

The demand for primary schooling in Madagascar: Price,quality, and the choice between public and private providers

We estimate a discrete choice model of primary schooling and simulate policy alternatives for rural Madagascar. Among school quality factors, the results highlight the negative impacts on schooling demand of poor facility quality and the use of multigrade teaching (several grades being taught simultaneously by one teacher) in public schools. Simulations indicate the feasibility of reducing multigrade in public schools by adding teachers and classrooms, a policy that would lead to modest improvements in overall enrollments and would disproportionately benefit poor children. Given much higher price elasticities for poorer households, raising school fees to cover some of the additional costs would strongly counteract these favorable distributional outcomes. An alternative policy of consolidation of primary schools combined with multigrade reduction or other quality improvements is likely to be ineffective because of the strongly negative impact of distance to school.     

Carbon dioxide emission and income: A temporal analysis of cross-country distributional patterns

This paper explores the relationship between the inter-country income inequality and CO₂ emission and temporal shifts in such a relationship. It also examines how the mean per capita CO₂ emission and its distributional inequality are related to the corresponding mean and the distributional inequality of income. The analysis is based on a cross-country panel data set at the level of country-group. Here environmental damage is treated as a private good and the technique of Lorenz and specific concentration curve analysis have been used as the basic analytical framework to argue that distributional inequality of income should be an explanatory variable in the Environmental Kuznets Curve relationship, along with the mean income level. In the empirical exercise, Johansen's cointegration analysis technique is used to explore existence of statistically significant cointegrating vector(s) relating mean emission and Specific Concentration Ratio of emission to mean income level and Lorenz Ratio of income, using a set of country-group specific time series data set which covers four country-groups (viz., Africa, America, Asia and Europe) and the World as a whole. The empirical results confirm that the inter-country income inequality has significant effect on the mean emission level and inter-country inequality of emission level for most of the country-groups considered.     

Environmental impact of household activity in Spain

The objective of this paper is to analyse the environmental impacts of the Spanish economy by way of water and atmospheric pollution on the basis of a Spanish Accounting Matrix for 1999. Only households were taken as an exogenous account. The pollution measures are estimated for seven categories of pollution: three atmospheric pollutants (CO₂, NO_x and SO_x) and four indicators for water (waste water, nitrogen, metals and biological oxygen demand (BOD)). The environmental data base was obtained from the Spanish Statistical Institute.The analysis reveals that pollution in Spain is closely linked to food production, energy, extractive industries and paper manufacturing. We show that services, taken as a whole, are major polluters, though this is due to the volume of household expenditure they represent rather than their pollution potential as such. We also show that the Spanish economy avoids a great deal of pollution by importing inputs, which pollute where they are produced. Finally, the study also provides per capita pollution values for the aforementioned seven pollutants.     

On measuring the benefits of lower transport costs

Despite large amounts invested in rural roads in developing countries, little is known about their benefits. This paper derives an expression for the willingness-to-pay for a reduction in transport costs from the canonical agricultural household model and uses it to estimate the benefits of a hypothetical road project. Estimation is based on novel cross-sectional data collected in a small region of Madagascar with enormous, yet plausibly exogenous, variation in transport cost. A road that essentially eliminated transport costs in the study area would boost the incomes of the remotest households – those facing transport costs of about $75/ton – by nearly half, mostly by raising non-farm earnings. This benefit estimate is contrasted to one based on a hedonic approach.     

Consumption risk, technology adoption and poverty traps: Evidence from Ethiopia

Much has been written on the determinants of technology adoption in agriculture, with issues such as input availability, knowledge and education, risk preferences, profitability, and credit constraints receiving much attention. This paper focuses on a factor that has been less well documented: the differential ability of households to take on risky production technologies for fear of the welfare consequences if shocks result in poor harvests. Building on an explicit model, this is explored in panel data from Ethiopia. Historical rainfall distributions are used to identify consumption risk. Controlling for unobserved household and time-varying village characteristics, it emerges that not just ex ante credit constraints, but also the possibly low consumption outcomes when harvests fail, discourage the application of fertilizer. The lack of insurance or alternative means of keeping consumption smooth leaves some trapped in low return, lower risk agriculture, one of the mechanisms through which poverty perpetuates itself in agrarian settings.     

Culture, caution, and trust

Trust is an important determinant of economic development. Understanding its origins is therefore critical. We develop a principal-agent model with heterogeneous players to determine the aggregate amount of trustworthiness and trust in a society. People are distributed according to their preference toward caution, which we model as loss aversion. The first two moments of the distribution across principals and agents—along with institutional quality—are critical to the process by which trustworthiness and trust are formed. A direct effect suggests that more caution leads to less societal trust. An indirect effect of greater caution, working through trustworthiness, leads to more trust. Paradoxically, the net effect is almost always positive. The results are similar when we use expected utility theory. Different distributional assumptions can influence the results.     

Effects of the Chinese arable land fallow system and land-use change on agricultural production and on the economy

This study focuses on economic effects of arable land fallow system and land-use change in China using a dynamic single-country, multi-regional computable general equilibrium model. Land supply is adjusted endogenously in our model. Land use in each of 31 provinces is tracked by a land-use change module, which is calibrated with satellite data. Our results reveal that the expansion of real output can be attributed to the increase in capital stock as a result of the growth of investment due to the imposition of the arable land fallow system in China. And the growth of investment is caused by the release of labor from agriculture The reduced supply of arable land in agricultural land contraction regions is partially offset by the increasing arable land in agricultural land expansion regions. Rural households benefit more than urban households from the arable land fallow policy due to relatively higher income and lower rural CPI.     

HETEROGENEITY,FRICTIONAL ASSIGNMENT,AND HOME-OWNERSHIP

We study the composition of the housing stock across ownership and rental markets in a dynamic model of frictional assignment. Houses are rented or sold to heterogeneous households that sort over quality. Due to matching frictions and an increasing ownership surplus, wealthy households tend to own and lower value housing tends to be rented, even without financial frictions or rental supply constraints. When calibrated to match key housing market features of the average U.S. city, the model is consistent with observed empirical relationships across cities. We study the model's implications for affordability, ownership, and the impact of progressive property taxation.     

School Finance Induced Migration and Stratification Patterns: The Impact of Private School Vouchers

This paper introduces a general equilibrium model of public school finance that includes: (i) multiple school districts that finance local public schools via property taxes set by majority vote; (ii) multiple neighborhoods within school districts where each neighborhood is characterized by a quality level of housing; (iii) local public schools that are obligated to admit all interested students who reside within the school district; (iv) private schools that function as clubs of parents who share the cost of the private school equally and who can choose to exclude others; (v) an educational production process that depends on both per pupil spending and average peer quality within the school; and (vi) individual peer quality levels that are correlated with the socioeconomic status of households. Since it allows for various degrees of imperfect stratification of residents across communities, the model is well suited for investigating empirically relevant migration forces induced by school finance reform proposals. The abstract model itself, however, is too complex to yield many analytic results. A computational counterpart to the model isnb therefore developed, calibrated to data, and utilized for policy experiments. In particular, the impact of vouchers in the context of different types of prevoucher educational finance systems is investigated, and it is found that migration patterns in general would cause vouchers to benefit public schools in poor communities while hurting public schools in wealthy communities.     

Tariff pass-through and the distributional effects of trade liberalization

This paper estimates the distribution of welfare gains due to the trade reforms in India by simultaneously considering the effect on prices of tradable goods and wages. The cost of consumption for each household is affected by the domestic price changes, while wage incomes adjust to these price changes in equilibrium. Three rounds of the Indian Employment and Consumption Surveys are used for the analysis. The price transmission mechanisms are estimated for both rural and urban areas to understand the extent to which the trade reforms are able to affect the domestic prices. In order to assess the distributional effects, a series of nonparametric local linear regressions are estimated. The findings show that households at all per capita expenditure levels had experienced gains as a result of the trade liberalization, while the average effect was generally pro-poor and varied significantly across the per capita expenditure spectrum.     

Risk and Household Grain Management in Developing Countries

A dynamic model is presented of a household's joint production, storage, and trade decisions when facing transaction costs and risk in prices and yields. Grain management decisions balance the goals of maximising profits and reducing consumption price risk. Model solutions calibrated to Chinese data show that grain's consumption role makes it an attractive form of precautionary saving even when households have access to credit, the joint nature of production and savings decisions limits the income loss associated with risk-coping, and the desire to store grain can explain why subsistence households are frequently net purchasers but rarely net sellers of grain.