利率市场化进入攻坚阶段

在金融改革全面深化的2012年,备受关注的利率市场化改革也取得突破性进展。今年6月和7月,央行两次降息、的同时,扩大了存贷款利率上下浮动的范围,特别是允许存款利率向上浮动。此举被市场看作利率市场化改革进入攻坚阶段的标志。     

金融产品创新助推利率市场化

金融市场与利率市场化关系密切,二者相互推动,相互促进。金融市场为利率市场化创造市场条件,利率市场化带动金融市场进一步深化发展利率市场化的进程与挑战1993年,党的十四大《关于金融体制改革的决定》确立了我国利率改革的长远目标。1996年,中国人民银行启动利率市场化改革。改革的总体思路为:先外币、后本币;先贷款、后存款;先长期、大额,后短期、小额。从改革的内容来看,可分为以下几部分:货币市场利率、外币存贷款利率、债券市场利率以及本币存贷款利率。     

利率市场化改革对我国债券市场的影响

管制利率政策对我国 债券市场发展的制约 发达国家的经验表明,利率政策和债券市场是相互影响、相辅相成、相互促进的。没有发达的债券市场,就不会有市场化的利率政策和灵活的利率机制;没有市场化的利率政策,债券市场也就缺少了一     

利率市场化的时机选择

<正>从1996年我国放开同业拆借利率开始,利率市场化改革已走过了十几个年头。2004年宣布放开存款利率下限和贷款利率上限后,作为核心环节的存贷利率市场化进程又趋于停滞。2012年6月7日和7月5日中国人民银行发布利率调整通知,将存款上限上调为基准利率的1.1倍,贷款下限调整为基准利率的0.7倍,这标志着我国利率市场化的攻坚战再次打响,利率市场化改革进入关键阶段。     

稳推存款利率市场化须“步步精心”

在当前经济金融结构加速转型的大环境下,利率市场化改革已进入突破存款利率管制的攻坚阶段。鉴于解除存款利率上限是利率市场化改革进程中最为关键、风险最大的阶段,因此更不能急于求成,否则会功亏一篑。未来的存款利率市场化需要一定时间的渐进深入,唯有步步精心地规划设计并稳妥推进才是最佳途径。     

利率市场化对四大行的财务状况影响比较

伴随利率市场化的逐渐放开,我国商业银行传统靠利差的盈利模式必将随着改变,而作为占据我国银行资产半壁江山的四大国有商业银行在利率市场化进行中,其财务状况将受到那些冲击,本文将详尽解析。     

存款保险制度是利率市场化的制度保障

利率市场化是全面深化金融改革的核心内容之一．存款利率放开时间表的确定吹响了金融体制改革加速的号角。今年两会期间人民银行周小川行长强调存款利率放开很可能在未来一两年内完成,这表明金融体系市场化改革正在提速．而这将给银行部门等带来巨大的j中击,市场化条件下银行破产的可能性增大。     

利率市场化与金融改革的配套

利率是一个重要的经济变量，涉及到经济、金融的各个方面，是各种利益关系的集中点，在这个新旧体制的转轨过程中，自然会遇到各种制约因素，所以利率改革需要经济和金融的相关配套改革，为利率市场化创造一个良好的条件和基础；另一方面，利率改革不是孤立的，利率市场化是金融深化的导向，是整个金融制度改革系统工程的一个子工程。从某种意义上说，只有利率机制的深入改革，以市场为导向的金融制度的改革才能取得实质性的进展，所以，利率市场化与金融制度改革互为条件、相互依赖。     

FINANCIAL RATIO ADJUSTMENT DYNAMICS AND INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS

This paper re-examines the financial ratio adjustment model by (1) respecifying the model such that the speed of adjustment coefficient follows a dynamic adjustment process in response to some kind of economic shocks, and (2) proposing a joint estimation of firms within the same industry to capture unobservable industry effects. Examining six financial ratios within seven industries that contain 85 firms, our results reveal that a joint estimation method substantially improves the traditional model based upon an OLS method and that economic shocks, measured by changes in interest rate expectations, affect the speed of adjustment coefficients for over one-third of the sampling firms.     

HEDGING INTEREST RATE RISK UNDER TERM STRUCTURE EFFECTS: AN APPLICATION TO FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

In this paper we investigate the use of the structured full rank model for hedging the balance sheet of a financial institution. Simulation results suggest that the optimal hedge is insensitive to changes in parameter estimates. In addition, we hedge a portfolio of Treasury bills using both the full information covariance matrix and the structured covariance matrix. We then contrast these results with those obtained from a duration-based model. Empirical results suggest that the structured full rank model is generally more effective in hedging applications than either the full information model or duration-based model.     

INTEREST RATE RISK,MARKET VALUE,AND HEDGING FINANCIAL PORTFOLIOS

This paper derives theoretical hedge ratios for the financial portfolio that preserve its present value in the presence of interest rate risk. From a practical point of view and for any given portfolio, the existence of the financial futures market allows the investor to employ any of a number of different hedges, each of which approximately satisfies the theoretical condition. The theory indicates that wealth-preserving hedges depend on the interest elasticities (durations) of the spot assets and liabilities contained in the portfolio, portfolio leverage, and the interest elasticity (duration) of the financial instrument underlying the futures contract that is employed in constructing the hedge. Also, hedges designed to maintain net interest margin or net cash flow do not minimize exposure to interest rate risk.     

INTEREST RATE RISK AND EQUITY VALUES OF HEDGED AND UNHEDGED FINANCIAL INTERMEDIARIES

This paper uses an approach developed by Flannery and James to show that interest rate changes have different effects on equity values of hedged and unhedged financial institutions. Equity values of (generally unhedged) savings and loans are significantly more sensitive to unexpected interest rate changes than equities of (generally hedged) commercial banks. The interest rate sensitivity of (generally hedged) life insurance equities is similar to that of bank equities. Overall, the equity values of unhedged financial institutions are more sensitive to interest rate changes than the equity values of financial institutions that more closely balance the maturities of their assets and liabilities.     

应赋予央行利率监管权——访全国人大代表、人民银行成都分行行长周晓强

“利率市场化改革”无疑是“两会”关注和热议的话题,活跃在“两会”上的金融系统代表委员们,除了对“存款利率放开”、“存款保险制度建立”等话题多有讨论外,更多地关注点在利率市场化改革的“顶层设计”。     

INTEREST RATE CHANGES AND COMMON STOCK RETURNS OF FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS: REVISITED

In this paper the interest rate sensitivity of common stock returns of financial firms is re-examined. Considered here are (1) current, anticipated, and unanticipated changes in interest rates; (2) depository and nondepository firms; and (3) three different-maturity interest rate indices. Results lend strong support for a negative effect of both current and unanticipated interest rate changes. Although some exceptions are observed, stock returns of most subsectors of both financial and nonfinancial firms are not sensitive to anticipated interest rate changes. The findings of this study are robust to the choice of a particular model of interest rate expectations.