Great Expectations: Microfinance and Poverty Reduction in Asia and Latin America

Microfinance institutions (MFIs) are often seen by aid practitioners as a manifestly effective means of improving the position of the poor. Despite this widely held view, detailed research studies have been much more guarded about the impact of MFIs. In particular, several studies have raised doubts about the effectiveness of MFIs in reaching the “core poor”. This paper surveys the evidence from Asia and Latin America and contrasts experiences in the two regions. Studies on the former have been carried out more “rigorously”, but in both regions the evidence that microfinance is reaching the core poor is very limited.     

A Note on Imperfect Monitoring of Agri-Environmental Policy

In this note the impact of imperfect compliance monitoring on the implementation of agri-environmental policy is analysed. A principal-agent model is used to demonstrate how imperfections in the monitoring process lead to higher levels of incentive payments to ensure compliance. This means that less accurate compliance monitoring results in higher social costs from policy implementation. Technical enhancements in the accuracy of compliance monitoring will therefore lead to a reduction in social costs. This is an important result with significant implications for the design and implementation of agri-environmental policy.     

Urban inequality,youth and social policy in Latin America: introduction to special section

This special section discusses some of the challenges of inequality in the Latin American urban context and its consequences for the lives of young people. The four papers provide an in-depth analysis, from different methodological and disciplinary perspectives, of the interaction between social policy and multiple dimensions of inequality in Mexico, Argentina and Nicaragua. Each seeks to shed some light on the ways social policy operates at the micro- and meso-level to reduce (or fail to reduce) socio-economic inequality and promote human development for young people. This introduction provides a short overview of macro trends on social policy and inequality in Latin America. It raises some questions and discusses challenges regarding their ‘trickling down’ in the lives of the young who live at the urban margins.     

Economic Development,Inequality and Poverty: An Analysis of Urban Violence in Colombia

This paper analyses some determinants of urban violence in seven major Colombian cities. The empirical research is intended to explore variations in violence across these Colombian cities and the influence of these variations on Colombia's economic development. In this study, several econometric data panel models and various estimate types are applied to control heterogeneity across the cities and to address endogeneity problems among the explanatory variables. The results show that education, poverty, inequality and the labour market are strong predictors of homicide rates in the seven Colombian cities. The results also demonstrate that city-level homicide rates depend on the city's level of development and the tendency of urban violence to persist over time. The findings thus demonstrate that factors such as inequality, poverty, education and the labour market influence urban violence, thereby generating negative effects on Colombia's economic and social development.     

从绝对贫困到相对贫困：土地要素对贫困影响分异识别研究

研究目的：精准识别绝对贫困和相对贫困不同时期土地要素对贫困的可能影响,评估土地要素对绝对贫困的帮扶效果,为推进土地要素更为精准地实现相对贫困治理提供参考。研究方法：多层线性模型。研究结果：（1）土地要素对于绝对贫困和相对贫困均具有较为突出的影响;（2）土地要素扶贫政策全面展开后,土地要素的资源和资本禀赋得到了有效改善,土地资本禀赋具有更为突出的未来改善潜力;（3）土地要素的资源和资本禀赋在各个时期都体现出了对贫困的异质性影响,资本禀赋相较于资源禀赋对于贫困均具有更强影响。研究结论：无论是在绝对贫困还是相对贫困治理中,均需高度重视土地要素的突出作用;在过去的扶贫攻坚战役中,一系列土地要素扶贫政策已然发挥了重要作用,而未来的相对贫困治理中亟待进一步促进土地要素禀赋改善,特别要着力重点提升土地要素资本化水平,从而有的放矢地推进更为精准的相对贫困治理。     

A Note on the Effects of the Income Stabilisation Tool on Income Inequality in Agriculture

Increasing concerns with income risks in agriculture have led to discussions on the introduction of an Income Stabilisation Tool (IST) in Europe. In this note, we extend existing evaluations of the IST by investigating the potential effect of the IST on inequality in farm incomes using Swiss agriculture as a case study. We find that the IST will significantly reduce income inequality, in particular by increasing lower quantiles of the income distribution. This property constitutes a value‐added of the IST that is not yet considered in the current policy debate.     

Trade and Biotechnology in Latin America: Democratization, Contestation and the Politics of Mobilization

This research explores the role of agrarian and environmental movements in contesting the development and promotion of agricultural biotechnology through trade liberalization in Latin America. Organized around themes of mobilization, participation and representation, it raises key questions about who mobilizes and how, and about the strategic dilemmas that arise when movements with different histories, membership bases and cultures of protest attempt to work together. Issues of accountability, representation and participation run through the analysis of strategies of organization and claim-making adopted by an eclectic range of groups seeking to contest the role of biotechnology in the structure of agricultural production, the institutions that manage that relationship and the discourses which sustain it. In particular, analysis centres on their responsiveness to the concerns and agendas of poorer groups in the front line of the 'gene revolution' as it plays out in the Latin American countryside, in particular in Argentina and Brazil, the key players in biotechnology in the region.     

奶农收益获取途径及其贫困影响分析--内蒙古自治区某地奶牛发展政策的实证研究

本文以内蒙古某地奶牛发展政策为例,通过纵向和横向两个维度的收益获取途径分析和对比,揭示贫困农户在介入一项发展政策时在收益获取途径的获得和维持的两个环节上都处于一种弱势地位,他们由于自身所处的社会、经济格局难以获得良好的交易条件,难以获得机会以提高其资产的管理和利用效率,从而难以真正从普通的发展政策中受益。     

营养扶贫:助力健康扶贫与推进精准扶贫的新模式——基于国内外研究的文献综述

营养扶贫是改善贫困人群营养状况、从根本上提高其健康素质,进而推进精准扶贫的有效措施,但对营养扶贫的深入认识与重视普遍缺乏。本文以营养扶贫为研究对象,通过对相关文献的综述,梳理了营养扶贫的概念、内容、实践经验与政策演变,从而发现了现阶段中国营养扶贫研究存在的问题,并据此提出了加强对营养健康知识的关注,量化营养扶贫效率,营养扶贫对多维贫困的影响,加强中国与其他国家关于营养扶贫的对比分析等未来可能的研究方向。通过对营养扶贫的首次系统阐述与分析,本文有助于对营养扶贫的深入理解,推动营养扶贫的实施与开展,从而助力健康扶贫、推进精准扶贫与乡村振兴。     

Sustainability indicators,alternative strategies and trade-offs in peasant agroecosystems: analysing 15 case studies from Latin America

In view of the urgent need to improve agroecosystem sustainability, several efforts have been made to evaluate the effect of alternative strategies on key environmental and socioeconomic variables at the farm, community and regional levels. Most peasant farmers manage complex and diverse agroecosystems, and constantly adapt management strategies with multiple aims. A sustainability evaluation framework for peasant systems has been applied in over 40 case studies in Latin America, from which 15 were analysed, focusing on the choice of indicators, the effect of alternative strategies on agroecosystem sustainability and the trade-offs involved. Common indicators include yields, income, agrodiversity and external input dependence. Alternative strategies include crop/product diversification and soil conservation practices. Yields, income and agrodiversity improved in most cases, but in some cases the establishment costs increased external input use. Trade-offs observed include improved performance of a subsystem (i.e. crops) vs. decreased one in others (livestock, forestry) and increases in productivity vs. decreases in stability, resilience and reliability. The difficulty of assessing systems in transition towards alternative management was acknowledged by some evaluation teams. Applying the framework to such a variety of cases allowed making the sustainability concept operational, promoted alternative strategies and generated knowledge on agroecosystem processes among stakeholders.     

新中国70年产业扶贫政策:演变路径、经验教训及前景展望

产业扶贫是实现持续稳定脱贫的根本之策。新中国成立70年来,我国产业扶贫政策经历了基础夯实、起步摸索、雏形确立、加速推进、精准施策五个阶段,在产业扶贫推进过程中,各地区持续改善产业扶贫基础环境,结合实际创新推进模式,坚持政府主导各界参与的多元形式,实施差异化的支持政策,为脱贫攻坚取得重大决定性成就提供了有力支撑,与此同时,也面临趋同化现象明显,益贫性仍然较低,政府和市场边界相对模糊等问题。今后,产业扶贫仍将是消除绝对和相对贫困人口的重要手段,更是促进乡村产业全面振兴的重要路径。展望未来,在扶贫产业迈向产业兴旺的进程中,产业的特色化与差异化将更加凸显,多元化与创新性的推进模式机制将不断涌现,全方位与立体式的促进乡村振兴将加速实现。     

林业部门的民主分权：非洲、亚洲和拉丁美洲的经验教训(续)

总结了约20个发展中国家林业部门分权管理的研究结果,并通过对在森林治理中起到主要作用的机构和参与者的分析,探讨了成功和失败的范例和主要的因素。研究表明,执行民主分权的案例并不多见,表现在:真正的决策权力、森林资源及其效益仍然是集权管理、选择处理的当地参与者往往不具有代表性或不负责任。现行政策有时伤害了当地的穷人。强调了全国性的对话和对公民社会特别是边缘群体的授权的重要性。研究结果证明,林业分权管理应当始于与当地民众一起工作,建立和完善他们已有的机制;具有代表性和负责任的地方政府将成为这一过程最适合的对话者。     

Characterising Vulnerability to Poverty in Rural Haiti: A Multilevel Decomposition Approach

This article characterises vulnerability to poverty in Haiti using a unique survey conducted in 2007 in rural areas. In a first step, using two‐level linear random coefficient models of both per capita consumption and per capita income, the article assesses the impact of self‐reported shocks on households' economic well‐being. In a second step, the prediction model is used to calculate various measures of vulnerability to poverty, considering various types of shocks. Empirical findings show that self‐reported (or observable) idiosyncratic shocks, in particular health‐related shocks, have larger impact on vulnerability to poverty than observable covariate shocks. These results are in line with the fact that many households reported idiosyncratic health shocks as being the worst shocks they experienced. On the other hand, unobservable idiosyncratic shocks appear to have generally more influence on households' vulnerability to poverty than unobservable covariate ones. We also show that omitting self‐reported shocks in the analysis leads to an underestimate of households' vulnerability to poverty.     

权宜性执行:村级组织政策执行与权力运作策略的逻辑分析——以陕南L贫困村精准扶贫政策执行为例

本文把某些村级组织根据不同场景定义和情境逻辑选择并采取各类具体的、短期的、人格化的策略、技术、手段和方法来执行中央政策指令和完成上级政府下达任务的行为概括为权宜性执行。通过构建主体—场景(情境)—行为分析框架,以笔者驻村扶贫的L村政策执行为个案,本文对权宜性执行行为生存和发展的逻辑机理从环境空间、社会基础及内生动力方面加以梳理和阐释:政策设计与执行分离的运行机制、组织运行资源与激励强度失衡的科层结构以及虚置的考核监督机制为权宜性执行生发提供了必要的环境空间;人情取向的乡土逻辑、村民淡薄的政治参与意识和孱弱的参与能力为其生发提供了植根的社会基础;政策执行主体尴尬的角色定位和自利性的利益权衡为其生发提供了充分的内生动力。     

Shrinking the Posterior: A Note on the Nerlovian Model

Diebold and Lamb (1997) argue that since the long‐run elasticity of supply derived from the Nerlovian model entails a ratio of random variables, it is without moments. They propose minimum expected loss estimation to correct this problem but in sodoing ignore the fact that a non white‐noise‐error is implicit in the model. We show that, as a consequence the estimator is biased and demonstrate that Bayesian estimation which fully accounts for the error structure is preferable.     

Agricultural productivity growth in Latin America and the Caribbean: an analysis of climatic effects,catch‐up and convergence*

This paper investigates whether climatic adjusted total factor productivity (CATFP) in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is converging, converging to different steady states or exhibit absolute convergence, that is the process does not require (government) interventions to reach its equilibrium path. We use data from the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit and from the Food and Agriculture Organization for 28 LAC countries over a 54‐year period (1961–2014) to estimate random parameters stochastic production frontier models to calculate CATFP and then use cross‐sectional regressions and an error correction model to analyse CATFP convergence across countries in the region. The results show that technological progress is the main driver of CATFP growth in the region and there is no absolute convergence, that is CATFP gaps across countries will not decrease over time and least performing countries will not grow faster than better performing ones without targeted policies. However, CATFP across LAC exhibits conditional convergence towards different steady states. Technological progress plays a critical role in raising the steady state level of CATFP with an overall average of 2.22 per cent per annum.